1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - For crude oil, the short - term supply is in a tight balance due to reduced exports from Russia and post - war Iran, but political expectations are extremely bearish. Given the current neutral - high valuation, it's advisable to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [3]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. With high spot valuation and limited upside space in the off - season, it's recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, with price support at the bottom but limited upside due to high supply. It's more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, it's expected to be easier to rise than fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish strategy, and short - term trading can be neutral - bullish, also pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak. Although it may follow the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure later [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread may repair, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [17][18]. - For polyethylene, the price is likely to remain volatile as the short - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction [20]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season [21]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23]. - For PTA, there is pressure on processing fees due to expected continuous inventory accumulation, but pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25]. 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI crude futures rose $1.88 (2.81%) to $68.75; Brent crude futures rose $1.75 (2.54%) to $70.63; INE crude futures fell 8.60 yuan (1.65%) to 513.9 yuan [2]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.38 million barrels (4.11%) to 9.53 million barrels; diesel inventory decreased by 0.57 million barrels (4.00%) to 13.77 million barrels; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels (6.04%) to 6.47 million barrels; naphtha inventory increased by 0.71 million barrels (13.60%) to 5.94 million barrels; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.17 million barrels (2.84%) to 5.93 million barrels; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.71 million barrels (1.73%) to 41.63 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 11, the 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 2370 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of +2 [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Upstream maintenance increased, and the operating rate declined from a high level. Overseas device operation returned to medium - high levels, and the market's reaction to overseas supply disruptions ended. Port olefin demand decreased, and traditional demand was in the off - season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 11, the 09 contract fell 4 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged with a basis of +57 [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic production increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizer production picked up, and export containerization continued [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectation of the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [10]. - **Supply - Demand**: Bulls expect production cuts in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears believe that the macro - expectation has worsened, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, up 0.7 tons (0.6%) [11][12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 60 yuan to 4980 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overall operating rate was 77%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 41.1%, down 1.8%. Factory inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5 tons), and social inventory was 62.4 tons (+ 3.2 tons). There is an expectation of new device production in the short term, and export is expected to weaken [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a low level in the same period, with large upward repair space [17]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of pure benzene increased, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. The port inventory increased, and the demand of three S products decreased seasonally [17][18]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation had limited downward space [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: Trade - related inventory was at a high - level shock, and the demand for agricultural film orders was at a low - level shock. There was no new production capacity plan in July [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis strengthened [21]. - **Supply - Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries rebounded, and the supply of propylene was expected to increase. The downstream operating rate declined seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [21]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 88 yuan to 6694 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 15 dollars to 837 dollars [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Chinese operating rate was 81.3%, up 0.3%, and the Asian operating rate was 73.6%, down 0.5%. After the end of the maintenance season, it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter due to new PTA device production [23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 42 yuan to 4700 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4710 yuan [24]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rate was 79.7%, up 1.5%. The downstream operating rate was 88.8%, down 1.4%. In July, there was less maintenance and new device production, and the inventory was expected to accumulate continuously [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 20 yuan to 4305 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4384 yuan [25]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - side operating rate was 68.1%, up 1.5%. The downstream operating rate was 88.8%, down 1.4%. The port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons. The fundamental situation was weak, and the inventory reduction was expected to slow down [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in oil prices driven by seasonal demand, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production strategies, highlighting the complex dynamics of the global oil market [3][4][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The current oil price rebound is attributed to the peak summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $70.63 and $68.75 per barrel, reflecting increases of 3.1% and 3.4% respectively from the previous week [3]. - OPEC+ has announced plans to accelerate its production targets, with a significant increase of 710,000 barrels per day from Saudi Arabia in June, exceeding its quota [4]. Group 2: Production and Demand Forecasts - IEA has adjusted its forecasts for global oil supply growth, predicting an increase of 2.1 million barrels per day by 2025, with OPEC+ contributing 700,000 barrels per day and non-OPEC+ contributing 1.4 million barrels per day [4]. - Despite a downward revision in demand growth expectations, IEA anticipates a seasonal peak in refinery output, with an increase of 3.7 million barrels per day from May to August, reaching a total of 85.4 million barrels per day [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The European Union is moving towards implementing a new price cap mechanism on Russian oil, potentially lowering the current cap from $60 to around $50 per barrel, which aims to maintain pressure on Russian oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak Outlook**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PX, PTA/PR, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, asphalt [1][2][3] - **Rebound with Upside Potential**: PVC, glass, soda ash, caustic soda [1][2] - **Bullish Rebound**: L, PP [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and oil prices are under downward pressure. OPEC+ is increasing production, and demand growth is slower than supply growth. Consider short - term short positions with call option protection [1][5][6]. - **LPG**: Cost is falling, and supply is abundant. The market is weak. Short - term short positions are recommended [1][7][9]. - **L**: Supply and demand are both weak. There is a short - term rebound, but a long - term decline is expected. Sell - hedging can be considered [1][11]. - **PP**: The market sentiment is positive, and export margins are improving. There is a short - term rebound, but long - term supply pressure exists. Consider 9 - 1 positive spreads [1][13]. - **PVC**: Macroeconomic sentiment drives the market. There is a short - term rebound, but long - term supply pressure may limit the upside. A short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [1][16]. - **PX**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease. There is a short - term correction. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][18]. - **PTA/PR**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weakening. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to be loose, and demand is weakening. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][23]. - **Glass**: Policy expectations are positive. There is a short - term rebound. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [2]. - **Soda Ash**: High supply and high inventory. The rebound is limited. Consider short - term short positions [2][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a short - term rebound due to inventory reduction and subsidy. The price center is moving up [2][33]. - **Methanol**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weakening. Hold existing short positions and add short on rebounds [3][35]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Look for high - shorting opportunities [3]. - **Asphalt**: Cost is falling, and supply is abundant. Consider short - term short positions [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 4.39%, Brent dropped 2.21%, and SC rose 0.89% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in August. The current consumption season and Saudi's price increase provide some support, but supply pressure is rising. US crude inventory increased by 710 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 270 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 82.5 million barrels [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is in excess. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Short positions with call option protection are recommended. SC is expected to trade between 500 - 520 [6]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 10, the PG main contract closed at 4199 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the main factor. Although there is short - term support, the subsequent OPEC+ production increase will bring downward pressure. PDH device profit decreased, and inventory increased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil is in excess. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Short positions with call option protection are recommended. PG is expected to trade between 4130 - 4230 [9]. L - **Basic Logic**: The domestic polyethylene market is in a weak situation. Although the oil price may rise, the downstream demand is in the off - season. New devices are expected to be put into production in July - August, and the long - term outlook is weak. There is a short - term rebound, and sell - hedging can be considered [11]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP futures prices rose slightly, and the export margin improved. The main contract basis weakened, and the inventory increased slightly [13]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure exists. There is a short - term rebound, and 9 - 1 positive spreads can be considered [13]. PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The inventory increased, and the cost support decreased [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The production is expected to increase, and the demand is stable in the off - season. The inventory pressure is increasing. There is a short - term rebound, and a short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [16]. PX - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the PX spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6672 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan/ton, and the basis was 448 yuan/ton [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high, and the demand from PTA is weakening. The supply - demand balance is expected to ease. PXN is not low, and the basis is high. Look for high - shorting opportunities [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX is expected to trade between 6670 - 6790 [19]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the PTA spot price in East China was 4835 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis was 125 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to increase with new device launches. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weakening. Inventory is decreasing, but the overall situation is neutral. Look for high - shorting opportunities [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA is expected to trade between 4650 - 4750 [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On July 5, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4361 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4277 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, and the basis was 84 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose with more device restarts and expected increase in arrivals. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weakening. Low inventory provides some support. Look for high - shorting opportunities [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG is expected to trade between 4280 - 4330 [24]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot price was stable, and the futures price rose slightly. The basis narrowed, and the inventory decreased slightly [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy is expected to improve the supply - demand situation. Although there is short - term constraint, the price may move up slightly. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to trade between 1070 - 1100 [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The heavy - soda spot price increased, and the futures price rose. The main contract basis decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is at a high level, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. Although the policy provides some support, the long - term situation is still weak. A wide - range oscillation strategy is recommended [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to trade between 1215 - 1245 [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price of caustic soda increased in some areas, and the futures price center moved up. The basis strengthened, and the inventory decreased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure, but the demand from alumina is recovering. There is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season. Pay attention to the rebound driven by inventory reduction [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH is expected to trade between 2480 - 2530 [33]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the methanol spot price in East China was 2446 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2399 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the inventory increased [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic device operation rate is high. The demand from MTO is weakening, and the traditional demand is entering the off - season. The inventory is increasing, and the basis is weakening. Short positions are recommended [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA is expected to trade between 2365 - 2405 [35]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The supply is increasing as the maintenance devices resume production. The demand from industry and agriculture is weak, but the fertilizer export is growing. The cost provides some support. Look for high - shorting opportunities [3]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost of asphalt is falling due to the decline in oil price. The supply is abundant, and the demand is affected by the weather. Short positions are recommended [3].

Core Insights - International crude oil prices experienced a rebound due to the summer driving season in Europe and the U.S., alongside a weakening dollar, with NYMEX WTI prices rising above $68 per barrel by July 8 [1] - Despite seasonal demand, significant downward pressure on prices is expected in Q3 due to OPEC+'s increasing production plans and the ongoing impact of U.S. tariff policies on global economic growth [1] OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ is significantly increasing production to regain market share, with an agreement reached on July 5 to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations [2] - A potential meeting on August 3 may approve an additional increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day for September, bringing total output from key OPEC+ members back to 2.17 million barrels per day [2] - In May, OPEC's production rose to 27.022 million barrels per day, an increase of 184,000 barrels per day from April, with Saudi Arabia and Libya contributing the most to this increase [2] U.S. Production Trends - U.S. crude oil production is projected to grow by 270,000 barrels per day in 2024, averaging 13.2 million barrels per day, a 2.08% increase from 2023 [3] - As of June 27, U.S. production had decreased to 13.433 million barrels per day, down from a record high of 13.631 million barrels per day in December [3] - High-cost shale oil producers are beginning to cut production due to falling prices, with the average breakeven prices in key regions being $62 and $64 per barrel [3] Geopolitical Impact - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Israel and Iran, initially caused spikes in oil prices, but the impact has been short-lived as supply routes have normalized [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day in June, reaching the highest level in over a year [4] - Structural changes in the energy market, including diversified supply sources and improved strategic reserves, are reducing the traditional dominance of oil-producing countries [4] Demand Concerns - Trade barriers and tariffs are expected to weaken global economic growth, which may suppress oil demand [5] - Forecasts for global oil demand in 2025 have been adjusted by major agencies, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicting demand at 103.7627 million, 103.5280 million, and 105.1349 million barrels per day, respectively [6] - Seasonal gasoline consumption in the U.S. has seen a mild recovery, but overall demand during the summer driving season is expected to be lower than previous years [6] Domestic Market Dynamics - In May, China's crude oil imports showed negative growth year-on-year, with a 3% decline month-on-month [7] - Domestic refining profits have increased, leading to a rise in refinery operating rates, while smaller refineries are struggling with low profits [7] - The global oil market is likely to face oversupply, driven by OPEC+'s production increases and the impact of U.S. energy policies [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil market** and its dynamics, particularly focusing on the impact of geopolitical events and OPEC+ production plans on oil prices and supply-demand balance [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Geopolitical Events**: Geopolitical tensions, including sanctions on Russia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Iran-Israel conflict, have caused short-term fluctuations in oil prices but have not altered the overall downward trend. Brent crude and WTI crude have both decreased by approximately 10% year-to-date, with current prices at $66.63 and $64.97 per barrel, respectively [1][3]. - **OPEC+ Production Plans**: OPEC+ is set to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, which is four times the increase planned in March. Cumulatively, OPEC+ has increased its production quota by 1.918 million barrels per day this year, intensifying supply pressure in the oil market [1][5]. - **Global Oil Demand Forecast**: The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a growth in global oil demand of 720,000 barrels per day this year, with a downward revision of 300,000 barrels per day from earlier estimates. This is attributed to sluggish economic growth and the rise of clean energy alternatives [1][7]. - **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: The IEA forecasts an increase in oil supply of 1.8 million barrels per day this year, with OPEC+ countries expected to contribute 400,000 barrels per day. The overall market is characterized by an oversupply, exerting downward pressure on oil prices [1][6][7]. Additional Important Content - **Impact of U.S. Shale Producers**: U.S. shale oil producers are reducing capital expenditures and drilling plans due to WTI prices being below the breakeven point of $66 per barrel. This reduction may help alleviate the global oversupply situation [2][6]. - **Response of Major State-Owned Oil Companies**: The three major state-owned oil companies (referred to as "Three Barrels of Oil") are increasing capital expenditures to drive production growth and technological advancements, with an average annual growth rate of 6.6% in capital expenditures planned for 2025. Their production growth rates are projected at 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively [2][8]. - **Geopolitical Influence on Market Trends**: The geopolitical landscape, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, continues to influence market expectations and oil price volatility. The potential for escalation in these conflicts could lead to short-term price increases [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent and WTI may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel this year [5][6]. - In the first half of the third quarter, the market is bullish, mainly due to OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations, a decline in U.S. shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center. In the long - term, the market is bearish because of the large - scale production increase from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., leading to a high probability of inventory accumulation [6]. - The strategy is to buy on dips and conduct band trading in the short - term, and to short on rallies in the long - term. Close out and take profits on long - short spreads, and avoid reverse spreads [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - The long - end U.S. Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds [11]. - Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds [17]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [19]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ production increase slightly exceeds expectations. For example, Iraq's Basrah crude export to Europe weakens, the UAE reduces Murban crude allocation, Saudi may use more heavy crude for domestic power generation, and Russia's ESPO Blend export decreases in June but is expected to rebound in July [7]. - The Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows that the business activity index turns negative. U.S. oil and gas executives are pessimistic about production prospects due to Trump's tariff policies and trade wars. Although U.S. crude production increased by 1.8 million barrels per day in April, WTI export profitability has deteriorated [8]. - Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran have different supply situations. Venezuela's production is expected to decline, and Iran's export is affected by sanctions, but there are signs of possible sanction relief [8]. - The IEA predicts a global crude oil supply surplus in the second half of 2025, and global visible inventories have been accumulating in the past three months [8]. 3. Demand - The seasonal peak demand continues. In Asia, China's crude oil processing volume increases, and some countries like Japan, South Korea, and India increase their U.S. crude oil imports. In Europe, refineries are cautious due to conflicts, and freight increases have raised costs [9]. 4. Inventory - U.S. commercial inventory rebounds, while Cushing inventory declines and is significantly lower than the historical average. Refining margins are strongly volatile, European crude inventory rebounds while diesel and gasoline inventories decline, and domestic refined oil margins are recovering [61][70][75]. 5. Price and Spread - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC underperforms foreign markets with a declining monthly spread, and the net long position increases [79][80][83].

Group 1 - Barclays has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 by $6 to $72 per barrel and for 2026 by $10 to $70 per barrel, reflecting a reassessment of global oil demand growth prospects amid tightening inventories and weak non-OPEC supply [1] - Despite recent easing of geopolitical risks, oil price trends are primarily supported by better-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals, with a focus shifting back to core supply-demand balance logic as oil inventories continue to decline [8] - OPEC+ countries have accelerated the pace of exiting production cuts, but actual output growth lags behind targets, indicating limited rebound potential in production due to reduction pressures faced by some member countries [8] Group 2 - Barclays has significantly raised its global oil demand growth forecast for this year by an additional 260,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by stronger-than-expected consumption in developed economies, particularly in the U.S. [8] - The mismatch between supply and demand is expected to continue supporting oil prices in the coming quarters, with Brent crude likely to maintain a trading range above $70 per barrel [8] - The stability and recovery of energy prices will positively impact the currencies of oil-producing countries, suggesting investors should pay attention to currencies closely linked to energy, such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-04原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2508： 1.基本面：伊朗外交部长表示，尽管该国宣布暂停与联合国核监督机构的合作，但将继续与该机构接触； 美国6月非农就业数据超预期，失业率降至4.1%，经季节性因素调整后，6月非农就业人数增加14.7万人， 高于预期的11万人；媒体援引不愿透露姓名的代表称，OPEC+已开始讨论在8月份再增加每日41.1万桶的产 量，此举在该组织本周末的视频会议前已提上议程；中性 2.基差：7月3日，阿曼原油现货价为69.84美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.42美元/桶，基差13.66元 /桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存： ...

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market has experienced a significant decline in risk premium due to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly following the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, which has reduced concerns over supply disruptions [1][3]. Supply Side Changes - The global crude oil supply landscape is undergoing subtle adjustments, with OPEC+ members showing differing compliance with production cuts, particularly Iraq and Kazakhstan exceeding their quotas, undermining the overall effectiveness of the reduction policy [4]. - The continuous growth of U.S. shale oil production, driven by technological advancements and cost control, is adding new variables to global supply, while non-OPEC oil-producing countries are also expanding their capacities, contributing to upward pressure on supply [4]. - OPEC+ faces challenges not only from external competition but also from increasing internal coordination difficulties, as core members like Saudi Arabia must balance price stability with market share [4]. Demand Outlook - Global economic slowdown is exerting substantial pressure on crude oil demand, with weak manufacturing activity and sluggish transportation fuel consumption in major economies [5]. - China's economic restructuring and energy transition are suppressing traditional oil demand, while the rapid development of renewable energy technologies is altering long-term energy consumption patterns, reducing reliance on fossil fuels [5]. - Seasonal factors are also impacting current demand, as the end of the summer driving season leads to a decline in gasoline consumption, compounded by cyclical adjustments in industrial production [5].

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Iran and Israel both announced the end of the war, causing oil prices to continue falling [6] - In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically achieved the planned production increase. Trump has expressed concerns about high oil prices, so there is a possibility that OPEC+ will further increase production [6] - In the June report, due to the suspension of the China-US tariff conflict, the expectation for crude oil demand has improved. However, as there is also an expected increase in supply from countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment to the balance sheet is limited, and the market will maintain a stockpiling pattern in the second half of the year [6] - Short-term geopolitical situations may still change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. Supported by the peak demand season, oil prices will be relatively strong in the third quarter. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in operations. In the fourth quarter, the cost line of shale oil may be tested again [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $67.74, closing at $65.01, with a high of $67.83, a low of $64.00, a decline of 5.11%, and a trading volume of 512,300 lots. Brent's opening price was $68.12, closing at $66.84, with a high of $69.37, a low of $65.93, a decline of 5.22%, and a trading volume of 645,800 lots. SC's opening price was 513 yuan/barrel, closing at 508.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.13%, and a trading volume of 304,000 lots [6][8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider reverse spreads in the third quarter and expect the fourth quarter to test the shale oil cost line [6] 2. Industry News - Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May [8] - Trump stated that if Iran rebuilds its nuclear facilities, the US will take action again and that the cease - fire between Iran and Israel is progressing smoothly [8] - China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China will take reasonable energy security measures based on its national interests [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][11][18][23]