Core Viewpoint - Major investment firms are shifting their focus towards emerging market stocks, anticipating a favorable turn in market conditions for these assets [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Firms' Perspectives - Morgan Stanley, AQR Capital Management, Bank of America, and Franklin Templeton are betting on emerging markets as the next investment opportunity [1]. - Bank of America's Michael Hartnett describes emerging markets as the "next bull market" [3]. - AQR predicts that emerging market stocks will yield an annual return of nearly 6% in local currency over the next 5 to 10 years, surpassing the 4% expected return from U.S. stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The S&P 500 index has remained flat year-to-date, while emerging market indices have risen by 10%, suggesting a potential end to a 15-year period of underperformance for these markets [3]. - Over the past 15 years, U.S. stocks have surged over 400%, while emerging market stocks have only increased by 7% [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Investment Shifts - Factors such as trade wars, the dollar's challenges, S&P volatility, and doubts about U.S. Treasury bonds' safe-haven status are prompting investors to look beyond the U.S. [3]. - Moody's recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over rising debt and deficits, adding pressure to U.S. equities [3]. - Franklin Templeton's Christy Tan warns of dollar depreciation risks and suggests that the "American exceptionalism" narrative may be temporarily over, viewing emerging market bonds as alternatives to U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - Morgan Stanley's Jitania Kandhari is focusing on stocks in banking, electrification, healthcare, and defense sectors within emerging markets [4]. - AQR's Chris Doheny is targeting smaller market capitalization companies in emerging markets that are expected to perform well in the medium to long term [4]. Group 5: Capital Flows and Economic Conditions - As of the week ending May 9, inflows into U.S.-listed emerging market and specific country ETFs reached $1.84 billion, more than double the previous week [4]. - Despite the positive outlook, inherent characteristics of emerging markets, such as political instability and local crises, may hinder this year's growth [4]. - Franklin Templeton's Tan highlights that major emerging markets have strong fundamentals, low external debt, and favorable debt-to-GDP ratios, making them attractive [4].

"展望未来一个时期，受特朗普关税政策冲击、金融市场动荡以及地缘政治冲突加剧等一系列因素影响，我认为新 兴市场国家的债务风险还会持续上涨。"中央财经大学国际金融研究中心主任张礼卿在近日举办的2025清华五道口 全球金融论坛上说道。 当前，新兴市场在全球经济与生产过程中越来越重要，但受制于治理架构不完善、金融体系脆弱性等结构性瓶 颈，新兴市场在过去多年来经常会出现债务危机、金融危机，甚至是经济危机。特别是2008年全球金融危机之 后，新兴国家债务的比重持续高企，疫情后又出现进一步上升，截至2024年一季度，新兴市场的债务达到了105万 亿美元的新纪录，债务利息偿还更是成为许多新兴经济体政府预算中的重要组成部分。 在全球金融环境收紧的当下，新兴市场如何缓解偿债压力、防范风险成为本届清华五道口全球金融论坛重点关注 的议题之一，多国政策制定者及研究者在"新兴市场债务危机与金融治理"环节分享了他们的真知灼见。 恩赫泰万·冈包勒德也表示，蒙古同样面临着借贷成本在过去多年持续攀升的问题，该国需要通过举债来支持基础 设施建设、社会福利保障等等。"事实上，一系列的进出口依赖会影响我们的经常账户收支平衡，也会造成一些经 济和金融危 ...

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange hosted the 2025 Global Investor Conference, focusing on "New Quality Productivity: Investment Opportunities in China - Open Innovation in the Shenzhen Market" [1] - The rise of new quality productivity in China is occurring against the backdrop of a reshaped global economic landscape, characterized by both competition and cooperation, which will impact global asset allocation and investment decisions [1] Group 1 - The conference featured keynote speeches, roundtable discussions, and company roadshows to showcase the investment value of Chinese assets and the A-share market [1] - Irene Goh from Aberdeen Investment highlighted that the current technological revolution is marked by faster adoption rates and broader coverage compared to the internet revolution, with a 33% increase in technology adoption speed over the past 20 years [2] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a more dynamic and agile approach to capture opportunities, necessitating more time spent on research and opportunity identification [2] Group 2 - China's clean energy sector is particularly noteworthy, with Chinese investments accounting for half of the global total in this area, showcasing a significant advantage in renewable energy infrastructure [2] - This trend is evident not only in production capacity, with China responsible for 70% of global solar panel production and 60% of electric vehicle battery capacity, but also in technology application and industry chain collaboration [2]

华尔街新兴市场的投资者在多年错失美国股市飙升后，终于看到了机会。摩根士丹利投资管理公司、 AQR Capital Management、美国银行和富兰克林邓普顿等公司都押注，形势最终可能会转向有利于发展 中市场股票。 美国银行的Michael Hartnett将其称为"下一个牛市"。AQR预测，未来5到10年，这些股市以本币计算的 年回报率将接近6%，超过以美元计算的美国股市4%的涨幅。 尽管标普500指数近几周出现反弹，但截至上周五收盘，该指数年内持平，而新兴市场指数则上涨了 10%。这一涨势点燃了人们的希望：新兴市场过去15年的黯淡表现可能会结束。在这15年里，美国基准 股指飙升了400%以上，而发展中国家股市只上涨了7%。 富兰克林邓普顿投资策略师Christy Tan表示："美元的贬值风险给投资者敲响了警钟。"她将发展中国家 债券视为美国国债的替代品。"我们认为，美国例外论暂时结束了。" 过去14年，标普500指数的涨幅几乎是新兴市场指数的10倍 摩根士丹利投资管理公司副首席投资官Jitania Kandhari表示："现在我们终于有了催化剂。"两年前，她 从美国转向新兴市场股票，宣布新兴市场时代已经 ...

What if $1tn moves out of the US and moves into EM equities? While EM asset behaviours recently carry telltale signs of early stage rotation into EM, UBS does not yet see this as a sustained theme (and crucially - this is more because of some reversal of US exceptionalism than anything strong in EM). Nevertheless, in our recent discussions with investors, one of the most frequently broached topics is the prospect of a big wall of capital out of the US finding its way into EM equities. We assess the relative ...

Core Insights - Emerging market assets are experiencing a strong recovery, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rising for five consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak in 2023 [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index increased by 3% to 3,278 points, reaching its highest level since October 2024, indicating a significant return of global capital to emerging economies [1] Currency Performance - The five-week rise in the currency index is attributed to the Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate hikes, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [3] - Currencies such as the Brazilian real, Indian rupee, and South African rand have appreciated over 2% against the dollar in the past month, with the Indonesian rupiah rising 1.8% in one week due to increased commodity exports [3] - Emerging market central banks have seen foreign exchange reserves grow for three consecutive months, enhancing their currency defense capabilities [3] Stock Market Dynamics - The stock index's performance is driven by structural opportunities, particularly in the semiconductor sector in Asia, which has benefited from surging demand for AI hardware, with tech stocks in South Korea and Taiwan averaging a 5.3% increase [3] - The consumer sector in Latin America has seen significant institutional investment following a decline in inflation in Brazil, leading to increased allocations [3] - Recent data indicates that emerging market equity funds saw a net inflow of $4.7 billion over the past two weeks, the highest level since Q3 2024 [3] Market Drivers - The current market rally is supported by three main drivers: expectations of a Fed rate cut in June, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to lower oil prices, and confirmed policy continuity in countries like India and Mexico post-elections, boosting infrastructure and manufacturing investments [4] - The yield premium of emerging market local currency bonds over developed countries has widened to 400 basis points, attracting sovereign funds and pension funds for rebalancing [4] Regional Disparities - There are notable regional disparities, with Eastern European markets facing pressure from EU carbon tax regulations, and Argentina experiencing high currency volatility, indicating a need for deeper structural reforms [4] - Investors are advised to monitor Vietnam's GDP data, as its export-driven economy's ability to maintain recovery momentum could be crucial for the sustainability of emerging market growth [4] Valuation Metrics - As of the report, the forward P/E ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index stands at 12.7 times, with a narrowing discount rate to developed countries at 18%, aligning with the five-year average [4] - If the US dollar index remains weak, emerging market assets are expected to continue generating excess returns in Q3 [4]

2 0 2 5清华五道口全球金融论坛 论坛议程 I TTJ =V · 09:30-10:30 主演讲 · 10:45-12:00 主题讨论一:面向未来的全球货币体系 0 05月17日(周六)下午 平行论坛 · 14:00-15:15 主题讨论二:新形势下的国际贸易与投资 · 15:30-16:45 主题讨论三:全球经济碎片化的挑战 · 16:45-18:00 主题讨论四:粤港澳大湾区建设与发展 · 14:00-15:15 主题讨论五:绿色发展的机遇与挑战 · 15:30-16:45 主题讨论方:新兴市场债务危机与金融治理 · 16:45-17:45 IMF专题报告:全球金融稳定 005月18日（周日）上午 平行论坛 · 09:00-10:15 主题讨论七:2025中国经济展望暨 《中国金融政策报告2025》发布 10:30-11:45 . 主题讨论八: 金融赋能科技创新与发展 · 09:00-10:15 主题讨论九:人工智能时代下的数字金融 · 10:30-11:45 主题讨论十:全球资本市场展望与发展 · UY:UU-11:UU 闭门会一:加强金融安全 防范系统性金融风险 005月18日(周日)下午 平行论 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on expanding into overseas emerging markets and e-commerce platforms to create a second growth curve, leveraging its full-chain e-commerce services for partner brands [1][2]. Group 1: Business Strategy - The company is actively embracing the growth opportunities in overseas emerging markets and e-commerce platforms, providing comprehensive e-commerce services including retail, short video operations, and live-streaming [2]. - The company has established a significant presence in the live-streaming e-commerce sector, with nearly 4,000 square meters of live-streaming bases and 45 live-streaming rooms in key e-commerce cities like Hangzhou and Beijing [1]. Group 2: Industry Expansion - The company has diversified its operations into various sectors including alcoholic beverages, water drinks, daily chemicals, and maternal and infant products, collaborating with well-known brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye [2]. - The company plans to increase the development of customized products in the liquor industry and will introduce new products in other sectors throughout the year [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a record business scale with a GMV of 8.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7% [2]. - The company reported an operating income of 3.676 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.18% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 260 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.61% [2].

【文/观察者网 邵昀】中美日前达成协议短期大幅互降关税，建立磋商机制，这一结果被外界评价"远超 预期"，为进一步弥合分歧和深化合作打下了基础、创造了条件。但与此同时，平静之下仍有暗流涌 动。 卢拉再度访华，20小时内在社交媒体更新109条 就在昨天（14日），巴西总统卢拉结束了为期五天的中国之行。这是卢拉第六次到访中国，也是本届任 期内第二次来华访问。期间，他参加了多场会议，集中会见了多名中国企业代表。有国内媒体统计，12 日出席"中国—巴西商业研讨会"当天，卢拉20小时内在社交媒体更新109条，分享他的行程收获。 据新华社报道，5月13日下午，中巴两国元首在北京人民大会堂举行会谈。会谈后，中巴两国元首共同 见证签署发展战略对接、科技、农业、数字经济、金融、检验检疫、媒体等领域20份合作文件。 "我们两国从未在如此短的时间内系统性地探讨过如此多的项目，以促进合作，实现互利共赢。"卢拉14 日在社交媒体上写道。卢拉表示，"很荣幸"能够再度访华，"这是一个以实际行动支持其他国家发展的 国家"。 香港《南华早报》5月14日观察，中美最近各自"官宣"了与不同新兴国家的投资合作，认为这两个全球 最大的经济体之间或许正为 ...

以下文章来源于清华五道口 ，作者小融 清华五道口 . 清华大学五道口金融学院（原中国人民银行研究生部）以"培养金融领袖、引领金融实践、贡献民族复兴、促进世界和谐"为使 命，现开设金融学博士、金融专业硕士、技术转移硕士、双学位金融MBA、金融EMBA、高管教育等项目。 ⏰ 倒计时2天！ 这场决定未来金融格局的盛会 你准备好了吗？ 5月1 7日- 1 8日 2 0 2 5清华五道口全球金融论坛 中国·深圳 精英荟萃 巅峰聚首 2 0余位中外高级别政经领袖 近1 0 0位国际重磅嘉宾出席 大咖来了！ 闭门主旨演讲 召开时间： 5月1 6日晚 论坛开幕式（闭门） 召开时间： 5月1 7日 9 : 0 0 - 11 : 1 0 主题讨论一（直播） 主题： 面向未来的全球货币体系 召开/播出时间： 5月1 7日 11 : 1 0 - 1 2 : 2 5 主题讨论三（直播） 主题： 全球经济碎片化的挑战 召开/播出时间： 5月1 7日 1 5 : 3 0 - 1 6 : 4 5 主题讨论二（直播） 主题： 新形势下的国际贸易与投资 召开/播出时间： 5月1 7日 1 4 : 0 0 - 1 5 : 1 5 主题讨论四（直播 ...