行业 日期 2025 年 06 月 05 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021- ...

2025.06.03-06.06 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周纯碱价格延续弱势运行。供应方面，整体的开工率呈现小幅上 升，主要原因是前期检修陆续复产，整体供应量维持在较高水平； 需求方面依然偏弱，下游多以低价刚需补货为主，市场观望情绪浓 厚；部分企业为刺激出货采取灵活定价策略。库存方面，受到节前 备货影响，库存存在小幅下降，但整体库存仍然处于高位。近期出 口情绪有所改善，部分企业接单量增加，但整体出口波动不大。 综上所述，纯碱整体供强需弱的格局预计将延续，价格走势预计呈 现震荡运行。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 上周纯碱行业部分企业进入检修，部分前期检修装置恢复， 需求端持续疲软，下游采购以刚性需求为主，供需格局未明 显改善。库存虽小幅下降但整体仍处高位。预计纯碱期货价 格维持震荡偏弱走势。预期纯碱2509运行区间1250-1400，可 考虑空仓观望。 n 本周策略建议 上周纯碱价格弱势运 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年6月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒5月21日消息:世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据报 告显示, 2025年3月，全球锌板产量为108.74万吨,消费量为113.35万吨， 供应短缺4.6万吨。1-3月,全球锌板产量为328.31万吨,消费量为338.48万 吨,供应短缺10.16万吨。3月,全球锌矿产量为100.78万吨。1-3月，全球锌 矿产量为296.11万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22850，基差+355；偏多。 3、库存：6月2日LME锌库存较上日减少1000吨至138150吨，5月30日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少0吨至1675吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean粕: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Bean oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall trend of the agricultural products market is complex, with different products showing various price trends and facing different supply - demand situations and influencing factors such as weather, policies, and market sentiment [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Bean one) - Domestic soybean positions are reduced, and the downward trend slows. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans narrows, with domestic soybean prices weaker. The domestic supply of imported soybeans is abundant from May to July due to large - scale arrivals of Brazilian soybeans. The medium - term price of US soybeans is affected by weather and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Domestic soybeans are entering the planting season, and weather will drive price fluctuations [2] Soybean & Bean粕 - The US government's request for administrative suspension is approved. Dalian bean粕 futures rise slightly with reduced positions. Domestic bean粕 spot prices are stable, and trading is dull. The domestic soybean supply is overly loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and large crushing volumes. Demand is cautious, oil - mill bean粕 inventories are rising, and the spot basis is weakening. The bean粕 market lacks a continuous upward drive and may continue to decline in a volatile manner [3] Bean oil & Palm oil - The domestic market shows a situation of weak oil and strong粕. Palm oil positions are significantly reduced, and prices correct. The US bean oil market is worried about the impact of biodiesel small - refinery exemption policies on demand. The medium - term overseas soybean market is driven by weather, and domestic oil futures are expected to follow the US soybean market. The domestic soybean spot market faces pressure from large - scale arrivals from May to July, and the arrival of 24 - degree palm oil in May - June also increases compared to the previous period. Overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. Overall, bean and palm oil are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [4] Rapeseed meal & Rapeseed oil - The rapeseed market shows a pattern of strong粕 and weak oil, with both main - contract positions continuing to decline. The domestic rapeseed inventory is still high, but the inventory pressure is not as severe as the data shows due to unclear domestic and export proportions. Aquatic product prices are higher than last year, feed costs are down, and aquaculture profits are expected to improve, so the demand for aquatic feed is promising. The old - crop Canadian rapeseed season is ending, with good crushing and exports, and limited export availability due to tight old - crop inventories. About 70% - 80% of the new - crop Canadian rapeseed has been sown, and weather is the key variable in the next two months. The rapeseed trade is still uncertain, and the crop fundamentals are notable. A bullish view on rapeseed futures is maintained, and the pattern of strong粕 and weak oil is expected to continue [6] Corn - The main - contract corn futures reduce positions by more than 50,000 lots, and prices rise as main - force funds seek to avoid risks before the holiday. The expectation of new - season wheat production reduction weakens, and some feed enterprises start to substitute orderly. Northeast corn spot prices are flat, with a price inversion between the north and the south. The purchasing power of deep - processing enterprises is weakening, with lower operating rates and rising profits, and they have a certain amount of corn inventory. Feed enterprises have rigid demand but are highly cautious. The supply of circulating corn is increasing, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly weak in the next stage [7] Pig - The main - contract pig futures are in narrow - range consolidation, and far - month contracts continue to rebound. Affected by policy factors, pig - breeding stocks and futures prices are relatively strong today. The far - month contracts are in a valuation - repair state. However, the industry still faces pressure from accelerated weight - reduction and early - slaughter, and there is still room for the spot price to fall. Attention should be paid to the downward pressure on the futures market from the falling spot price [8] Egg - The egg futures market rebounds with reduced positions, while the spot price drops across the country. After a continuous and rapid decline, there is a phenomenon of capital withdrawal in the short term. Short - sellers can exit to avoid risks. The slaughter of old hens has increased slightly but not significantly. With the arrival of the plum - rain season in June in the south, egg prices may continue to decline, and caution is needed when going long on peak - season contracts at low prices [9]

2025 年 5 月 30 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡 原油、 燃料油期货将震荡偏弱 铜、氧化铝、工业硅、螺纹钢、焦 煤、玻璃、纯碱、PTA 期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2506 阻力位 3850 和 3865 点，支撑位 3815 和 3798 点；IH2506 阻力位 2689 和 2699 点，支撑位 2658 和 2646 点；IC2506 阻力位 5700 和 5749 点，支撑位 5616 和 ...

5月28日盘中，红枣期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至8720.00元。截止发稿，红枣主力合约 报8725.00元，跌幅2.08%。 红枣期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 中辉期货 预计周内红枣盘面窄幅震荡 格林大华期货 红枣走势趋弱，低位震荡或仍是运行常态 中辉期货：预计周内红枣盘面窄幅震荡 产区方面,新疆主产区枣树生长正常，枣农积极进行田园管理工作，部分产区已经少量开花，目前生长 情况良好。据Mysteel农产品调研数据统计本周36家样本点物理库存10668吨，环比增长80吨，仍高于同 期4408吨，同比差值轻微走扩。销区市场货源持续供应，客商多以刚需补库为主，采购积极性一般，端 午节前备货行情有限。后市随着气温逐渐回升，终端鲜果消费逐步上市，预期秋冬滋补品类干果需求将 出现季节性走弱。整体来看，当前新季枣树生产较为正常，旧作高库存压力下，市场焦点仍在旧枣的消 费走货情况，近期下游到货速度有所放缓，但并无成交亮点，季度大方向需求走弱预期不改。预计周内 盘面窄幅震荡，关注天气升水扰动。 格林大华期货：红枣走势趋弱，低位震荡或仍是运行常态 昨日红枣主力合约再度下行 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the sectors are as follows: Sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is rated as "volatile"; Red dates in the same sector are rated as "volatile and slightly weak"; Rubber series in the energy and chemical sector are rated as "volatile", with natural rubber and synthetic rubber having different specific trends [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - Sugar market is affected by factors such as global production forecasts and domestic production and sales data. Currently, Zhengzhou sugar is at the lower edge of the volatile range, and short - term trading information is limited. Attention should be paid to Brazilian and domestic data [1] - After the Dragon Boat Festival stocking atmosphere fades, the red date market's trading enthusiasm declines. The downstream consumption will enter the off - season, and the inventory pressure will suppress the price. Focus on the growth of jujube trees in the main producing areas [3] - Natural rubber is affected by high inventory and increasing raw material supply, with limited upward drivers and likely to be in low - level volatility. Synthetic rubber lacks obvious positive factors and may run weakly due to falling raw material prices [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: SR509 closed at 5835 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.03%, and SR601 closed at 5699 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11% [1] - **Important Information**: Global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million tons. Domestic sugar prices in different regions have adjusted, and the port's waiting - to - ship sugar quantity has decreased [1] - **Market Logic**: External markets were closed yesterday. Zhengzhou sugar weakened at night after a small rebound. It is at the lower edge of the volatile range, and there may be new downward impetus [1] - **Trading Strategy**: For SR509, pay attention to the support at 5800 today. If the support is effective, short - term investors can try intraday long positions [1] Red Dates - **Market Review**: CJ509 closed at 9000 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.22%, and CJ601 closed at 9920 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.10% [3] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week increased by 0.76% week - on - week and 67.60% year - on - year. Market prices in different regions were stable over the weekend [3] - **Market Logic**: The main red date contract traded sideways. After the stocking for the Dragon Boat Festival, the market's trading enthusiasm declined. The inventory pressure will suppress the price [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support at 8950. If it is broken, look for support in the 8800 - 8850 range. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [3] Rubber Series - **Market Review**: RU2509 closed at 14400 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.93%, NR2507 closed at 12645 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16%, and BR2507 closed at 11545 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.74% [4] - **Important Information**: Thai raw material prices, domestic rubber prices, tire enterprise capacity utilization rates, and Qingdao's rubber inventory data are provided [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber continued to be volatile and weak with resistance to decline. Synthetic rubber fell again and then stabilized at the support level. Raw material prices fell, and the market atmosphere was weak [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For RU, pay attention to the 14300 - 14330 support area; for NR, focus on the 12500 - 12880 volatile range; for BR, consider stopping losses on short positions and pay attention to the 11500 - 11550 support [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash, Glass Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: May 26 - May 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. The overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly, with supply still in excess. The price is expected to remain volatile and weak, and the overall trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the operating load of the soda ash industry decreased, and some enterprises entered maintenance, while some previously maintained devices resumed operation. The industry operating rate remained around 80%. The demand side was continuously weak, and downstream enterprises mainly had rigid demand. The inventory, although slightly decreased, was still at a high level [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Due to enterprise maintenance, supply decreased last week, and the spot price was stable with the support of enterprise backlogs. Demand was stable, downstream restocked as needed, consumption and operation were stable, export sentiment improved, and some enterprises' order volumes increased. A 500 - ton production line of float glass was planned to be ignited, and photovoltaic remained stable. It was expected that SA2509 would operate in the range of 1250 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Some soda ash enterprises entered maintenance last week, and some previously maintained devices resumed operation. The demand side was continuously weak, and the supply - demand pattern did not improve significantly. The inventory was still at a high level. It was expected that the soda ash futures price would remain volatile and weak. SA2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1250 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [11]. 3. Relevant Data - Data Included: Soda ash operating rate (weekly in China), production (weekly in China), light and heavy - quality inventory (weekly in China), basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly) [12][16][18] - Market Indicators: The long - short flow was - 52.3, indicating a bearish tendency of the main force; the capital energy was 90.5, indicating a rapid influx of main - force funds; the long - short divergence was 91.3, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [22] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Glass is in a volatile trend. The supply - demand fundamentals of weak supply and demand are difficult to change in the short term, and it is expected to fluctuate this week [30]. - Trend Logic: Last week, float glass showed a weak and volatile trend. The prices in South China and Northwest China remained stable, while prices in other regions generally decreased. The supply was relatively stable, but the terminal demand was weak, and processing enterprises mainly purchased as needed. The demand for architectural glass was weak, and although the deep - processing orders improved slightly month - on - month, they were still weak year - on - year [30]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [30]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The spot price of domestic float glass decreased last week, with regional differentiation. Most prices declined due to weak transactions, and a few increased due to reduced production. There was a production line ignition this week, and new production capacity was released, so production might increase. Downstream orders were differentiated, and purchases were mainly based on rigid demand. The inventory of original sheets was at a high level in the same period, and enterprises mainly aimed to reduce inventory. It was expected that glass would fluctuate this week, and FG2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1000 - 1200. It was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Float glass showed a weak and volatile trend last week. The prices in South China and Northwest China remained stable, while prices in other regions generally decreased. The supply was stable, but the terminal demand was weak, and processing enterprises purchased as needed. The demand for architectural glass was weak, and although the deep - processing orders improved slightly month - on - month, they were still weak year - on - year. The supply - demand fundamentals of weak supply and demand were difficult to change in the short term. It was expected that glass would fluctuate this week, and FG2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1000 - 1200. It was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [34]. 3. Relevant Data - Data Included: Float glass production (weekly in China), operating rate (weekly in China), production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel (weekly in China), basis (daily), and ending inventory (weekly in China) [35][41][43] - Market Indicators: The long - short flow was - 17.3, indicating an unclear tendency of the main force; the capital energy was 52.9, indicating a relatively large inflow of funds; the long - short divergence was 95.8, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [48]

豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 2025.05.26-05.30 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道中,资金方面略微偏空。供 应宽松格局下预计M2509短期内弱势震荡，运行区间：2850- 3000，可考虑区间操作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏多。短期内M2509 预计宽幅震荡整理，运行区间：2850-3000，可考虑区间操作。 品种诊断情况 据Mysteel数据：第20周油厂大豆实际压榨量190.55万吨，开机率为 53.56%。大豆库存586.83万吨，较上周增加51.92万吨，增幅9.71%；豆 粕库存12.17万吨，较上周增加2.05万吨，增幅20.26%。巴西大豆收割接 近尾声，出口高峰叠加国内大豆到港量攀升，油厂压榨率持续回升，供 应宽松预期明确。然而，豆粕累库节奏速度较慢且阿根廷洪涝灾害引发 的减产担忧提振市场情绪，为价格注入阶段性支撑。综合 ...

国投安信期货指出，北方某大型钢厂招标定价环比下调100至5850元/吨。从预计到港数据来看， South32澳矿将会在本月底到港五万吨左右。铁水产量维持高位，硅锰供应继续下行，整体库存水平未 见下行，对价格持续构成压制。锰矿库存开启趋势性累增，建议反弹做空为主，价格依旧受到关税影 响，持续关注关税动向。 五矿期货表示，锰硅当前价格向右摆脱今年2月份以来的下降趋势后维持震荡，横移偏弱，我们仍旧认 为该位置直接起V型反转，继续大幅向上的概率不大，继续关注上方5900元/吨压力及下方低点5550元/ 吨附近的支撑情况（针对加权指数），若向上突破，则进而观察6000元/吨一线压力。操作上，单边仍 认为缺乏交易性价比，依旧建议观望为主。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，宏观面，3年、5年定期存款利率均下调了25个基点，分别下调至1.30%、 1.35%。供应端生产亏损，现货生产积极性不高，成本端，本期原料端进口锰矿石港口库存回升+23.1万 吨，后续来看，5月锰矿整体到港数量预计环比增加，下游铁水产量有见顶回落迹象，谨防需求回落后 价格波动变大。利润方面，内蒙古现货利润-180元/吨；宁夏现货利润-290元/吨。市场方 ...