Report Title - The report is titled "Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report 20250808: New Cotton Growth Generally Good, Focus on Peak Season Demand Boost" [1][2][8] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The short - term macro situation has uncertainties, demand expectations are weak, new cotton planting area may continue to increase, and structural supply has attracted market attention, forming a phased support. In the medium and long term, the global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, domestic production may remain high, demand expectations are poor, and the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve. Therefore, the rebound space of cotton is limited, the overall market is still under pressure, and the operation suggestion is to short after the rebound [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Supply and Demand - **Supply - demand Balance**: From 2021/22, due to the macro - economic downturn and the impact of the epidemic, cotton consumption was frustrated, but production remained at a relatively high level, and domestic cotton shifted from destocking to stockpiling with a downward price center. In 2024/25, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In 2025/26, production is expected to be good, but demand is still under pressure due to macro and policy disturbances, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. According to the July 2025 cotton information network data, in 2025/26, cotton production is expected to be at a high level, consumption is basically stable, imports have decreased significantly, and the ending inventory has decreased [12][13] - **New Cotton Growth**: Cotton is usually sown in May and harvested in mid - September. In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the national output reached about 685 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and under normal climate conditions, the new - season output is expected to be high, and currently, the new cotton growth is generally good, with the whole Xinjiang cotton entering the peak flowering and boll - setting stage [19] - **Inventory Situation**: In the 2023/24 season, cotton supply was sufficient with a high carry - over inventory. Currently, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. The market is concerned about the possible short - term structural supply shortage, but the industrial inventory remains at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still high. As of the end of June, the commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, a decrease of 62.89 million tons from the previous month, and the industrial inventory was 90.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.81 million tons from the previous month [23][24] - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened, and attention should be paid to cotton imports. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous month and an 82.1% decrease from the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% decrease year - on - year [34][43] - **Downstream Demand**: Overseas interest - rate cuts and US tariff policies are uncertain, and the Xinjiang cotton issue remains unresolved, so the foreign trade situation is expected to be severe. Although domestic policies are boosting the economy, the demand recovery remains to be seen. Recently, the sales of downstream yarns in some areas have improved, and grey - cloth orders have increased, but overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and finished - product inventory has increased. In June 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 127.5 billion yuan, a 1.9% increase year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 13.078 billion US dollars, a 0.76% increase year - on - year [47][52] Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as state - reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the state - reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. The planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual transaction was 0.8639 million tons, the transaction rate was 71.27%, and the average transaction price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [55][57] Global Supply and Demand - **Overall Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered significantly, and the stock - to - use ratio has increased slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to decrease slightly, demand will recover, and the ending inventory will continue to increase. The new cotton in the Southern Hemisphere is in the growth and harvest period with an optimistic production outlook, while the major producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing and growth period. The weather in the US cotton - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing in India is behind schedule compared with the same period last year [66] - **Major Countries' Situations** - **United States**: In the 2024/25 season, the US cotton planting area increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvest area remained high, the yield per unit is expected to decrease, and production is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered, but subsequent demand remains to be tracked. Last week, US cotton contract signings declined, and shipments increased [72] - **Brazil**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB), the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase to 3.938 million tons, a 7.2% increase year - on - year [72] - **India**: As of July 18, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.587 million hectares, 256,000 hectares lower than the same period last year [72] Spread and Basis - The report provides data and trends on cotton spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread, 5 - 9 spread) and basis (such as cotton 01 basis, 05 basis, 09 basis) [79][84]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The cotton market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish with stable basis, the cotton yarn market has minor changes, and the cotton fabric market has limited improvement in production and sales with high inventory. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures**: For CF2601, the yesterday's closing price was 13,835 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.11%, and the night - session closing price was 13,825 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 196,806 lots, a decrease of 52,459 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 748,215 lots, a decrease of 2,804 lots. For CY2511, the yesterday's closing price was 19,705 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 19,715 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05%. The trading volume was 6,245 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 15,633 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.36 cents/pound, a decline of 0.84% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,329, a decrease of 135 compared to the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts (no change). The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 88 (no change), and the valid forecasts increased by 88 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,687 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The prices in Shandong and Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton and 18 yuan/ton respectively. The 3128B index was 15,191 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton. The international cotton index M was 74.39 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.36%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the arrival price was 22,128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, the domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. Different regions have different sales basis levels [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has minor changes. The knitting market in Guangdong has slightly improved, while the weaving market remains dull. The overall market feedback is average, and the cotton yarn prices are mainly stable. The cotton fabric market is cautious, with some improvement in orders for some fabric mills, but the overall order situation has not improved significantly. It is expected that the fabric mills' sales will gradually accelerate in August, and inventory will be digested, but currently, the increase in orders is limited, and the production and sales improvement is limited with high inventory [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again yesterday due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [3]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].

Group 1 - Recent cotton futures prices have experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with no significant improvement in the fundamental market conditions, leading to intense long-short market battles [1] - Cotton consumption averaged around 750,000 tons per month from March to May, with June consumption at 697,000 tons and 320,000 tons in the first half of July, indicating that the first half of the year exceeded expectations [1] - The strong cotton consumption during the "golden three silver four" months is attributed to good export data and increasing production capacity in Xinjiang, which is expected to reach 30 million spindles by 2025, creating a localized tight supply situation [1] Group 2 - The cotton spinning mills' operating rate has decreased to 47.8% as of July 25, down to last year's levels, while the overall weaving mills' operating rate is at 44.4%, also lower than the previous year [1] - Raw material inventory for spinning mills is at 30.8 days, with finished goods inventory at 30.1 days, indicating a slowdown in accumulation [1] - Weaving mills have a cotton yarn inventory of 5.4 days, with a slight replenishment, while the finished goods inventory for cotton fabric is at 37.2 days, showing significant accumulation, particularly in the fabric segment, leading to a lack of confidence in the market outlook [1] Group 3 - There is a divergence in market discussions regarding the ability of the 2509 contract bulls to take delivery, with no significant cancellation of warehouse receipts observed, but an increase in effective forecasts [2] - The 2509 contract's delivery logic suggests that the market may revert to a backwardation state, with expectations of a return to near parity levels [2] - The market anticipates a bumper crop of 7.2 million tons for the new season, with favorable planting conditions and expectations of early new cotton sales, although high basis levels complicate next year's basis trading [2] Group 4 - The withdrawal of bulls from the 09 contract has confirmed the lack of cost-effectiveness in taking delivery, while the validation of the 9-1 price spread remains ongoing [3] - As September approaches, market focus will shift to new cotton negotiations, with potential for localized rush buying [3]

Core Viewpoint - Cotton prices are experiencing fluctuations, with mixed growth conditions for U.S. cotton, indicating potential supply and demand challenges in the market [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The closing price for cotton futures (contract 2509) was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or -0.15% from the previous day [1] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a national average price of 15,169 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: U.S. Cotton Growth Conditions - As of August 3, the blooming rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major planting states was 87%, which is 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The quality rate was 55%, which is 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five-year average [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Internationally, the supply side is minimally affected by weather this year, with a potential oversupply in the global cotton market for the 2025/26 season [1] - U.S. cotton planting area exceeded expectations, and drought conditions have improved, but new export contracts are weak, leading to a lack of upward momentum in international cotton prices [1] - Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, with low import volumes expected in the third quarter and tight inventory before the new cotton harvest [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The good growth conditions for new cotton and strong production expectations may pressure cotton prices in the fourth quarter, with uncertain demand prospects for the second half of the year [1] - The strategy suggests that due to ample global cotton supply in the new year and a lack of upward drivers in the industry, cotton prices may face short-term pressure and fluctuations [1]

Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions, changed contracts, and fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales bases were above CF09 + 1500, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5 was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' goods were quoted around 1550 - 1750 for self - pick - up in the inland [7] - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a decline of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning enterprises still limited production. Due to the loss of cotton yarn, the price - concession efforts were not large, and the decline of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was relatively larger. The spot market transaction of all - cotton grey cloth continued to be insufficient. The sample orders of weaving factories were worse than the same period of previous years. Currently, there were few actual orders, mostly just for necessary needs. It was expected that the factory production would continue to be sluggish in the first ten days of August, and weaving factories would still produce conventional varieties, and it was expected to improve in the middle of the month [7] - Internationally, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period last year), and the boll - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained range - bound fluctuations. Domestically, the actual sown area of this year increased year - on - year. Xinjiang cotton was in the full - bloom stage, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream of the industry was still weak. The inventory of cotton yarn products accumulated again, and the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market fluctuated and stabilized. The near - month contracts were approaching delivery, and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced, so the overall market was under pressure [8] Industry News - The Pakistani government announced that since July 1, 2025, it would impose an 18% tariff on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton cloth, and implement a new tax policy on e - commerce platforms, levying an 18% sales tax and a 5% service tax respectively [9] - According to USDA, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (44% in the previous week and 59% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 58%), the full - boll rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 6%), and the budding rate was 87% (80% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 89%) [9] Data Overview - The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures, including various data on cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates [7][8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", indicating that the short - term demand is average and the supply is in a loose pattern, and the market may fluctuate within a range [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply is bearish as the shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in while the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The overall view is that the market will oscillate in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in, and the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not yet priced in [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Spinning over - capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the basis of Xinjiang Shuang 28 spot at 1000 - 1200. The spread between September and January contracts of Zhengzhou cotton strengthened continuously this week [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. Spinning in Xinjiang has a slight loss, and spinning in the inland has a serious loss. The spread between yarn and cotton prices is running at a low level [3] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for supporting the long - term demand for domestic cotton, which is bullish for far - month contracts. Internationally, Sino - US trade negotiations are in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillation. Short - term demand is average, and supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Lightly short the CF01 contract; Arbitrage: Reverse spread between CF1 - 5 contracts [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - **Area Forecast**: The forecast shows an increase in cotton - planting area. The first survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton - planting area is expected to be 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the area in Xinjiang is expected to be 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [5][8][9] - **Yield per Unit Area**: The report provides historical data on cotton yield per unit area in the whole country and Xinjiang from 2013 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the national yield per unit area is expected to be 149.9 kg/mu, and that in Xinjiang is expected to be 158.5 kg/mu [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Situation - **Inventory**: There is inventory accumulation of finished products. The raw material and finished - product inventories of yarn mills and weaving mills are presented in the form of historical data of multiple years [18][19] - **Factory Load**: The operating rate is declining. The loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are shown in historical data of multiple years [25][26] - **Yarn Mill Profit**: There are losses. The immediate spinning profit and the spot spread between yarn and cotton are presented in historical data of multiple years [29][30] 3.2.3 Downstream Situation - **Inventory**: At a seasonal high. The inventories and finished - product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above designated size are presented in historical data of multiple years [32][33] 3.2.4 Import and Export Situation - **Domestic Import**: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative imports of domestic cotton and cotton yarn from 2018 to 2025 [37] - **US Cotton Export** - **Overall**: The signing volume is at the lowest in recent years, and the shipment is seasonally increasing [39] - **To China**: Significantly decreased year - on - year, at a low level in the same period [48] - **To Pakistan**: Significantly increased year - on - year, at a high level in the same period [54] - **To Vietnam**: The signing and shipment volumes have significantly increased year - on - year [60] - **To Bangladesh**: The shipment volume has decreased year - on - year [67] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: Oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in historical data of multiple years [73][74] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The spreads between Zhengzhou cotton 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [77] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The positions of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [79][80] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt**: The virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in historical data of multiple years [84][85] - **Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures**: The net long positions and the proportion of long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in historical data of multiple years [91][92] - **US Cotton Spread**: In a deep contango state. The spreads between US cotton 05 - 07 and 07 - 12 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [95][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US cotton futures continued to decline, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton dropped significantly. The specific agreement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks has not been finalized, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, downstream consumption is average, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed slows down. The current market price has fallen below the trend line, and short - term bearish sentiment persists [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Market Review**: As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 66.42 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.81 cents per pound from the previous week, with a decline rate of 2.65%. As of the week of July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, 2 percentage points lower than the previous week; the squaring rate was 80%, 9 percentage points higher than the previous week; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 11 percentage points higher than the previous week. As of the week of July 24, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2024/2025 market year was 39,100 bales, a sharp decrease from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/2026 market year was 71,700 bales [9]. - **Domestic Market Review**: As of Friday, the closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,585 yuan per ton, a decrease of 585 yuan per ton from the previous week, with a decline rate of 4.13%. As of the week of August 1, the spinning mill operating rate was 66.6%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 1.2 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from last week and an increase of 30,000 tons from the same period last year [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Sweden, but the specific agreement has not been finalized. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, with the continuous strengthening of the basis, downstream consumption is average, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed slows down. The current market price has fallen below the trend line, and short - term bearish sentiment persists [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: On August 1, 2025, the basis was 1,575 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread was - 200 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was - 887 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 180 yuan per ton, and the FC index M 1% was 13,551 yuan per ton. The short - term is still bearish [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: No trading strategy recommendations were provided [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and various international spreads, to show the historical trends of different spreads [27][29][31]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation The report shows multiple charts related to the domestic cotton market, including domestic cotton production, import volume, US export contract volume to China, cotton yarn import volume, downstream operating rate, cotton sales progress, cotton inventory, and spinning mill raw material and finished - product inventory, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the domestic cotton market [40][42][44]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: The report shows the historical trends of CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [58]. - **US Situation**: The report presents multiple charts related to the US cotton market, including planting situation, production situation, production and planting area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the US cotton market [60][62][64]. - **Brazil Situation**: The report shows multiple charts related to the Brazilian cotton market, including production and planting area, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the Brazilian cotton market [73][76][78]. - **India Situation**: The report presents multiple charts related to the Indian cotton market, including production and planting area, consumption and import/export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the Indian cotton market [81][84][86].

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton decreased in position and price. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions and varieties of cotton had different sales price bases and quotes. The pure - cotton yarn market's quotes were stable, and the transaction price was approaching the quote. The all - cotton grey fabric market had weak demand, and the fabric price was stable and weak, with only partial improvement in some areas [7]. - Macroscopically, the negotiation on the suspension of tariff extension between China and the US was ongoing. In the international market, as of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, showing a slight decline. The budding, squaring rates of US cotton indicated a slower growth progress, and the outer market was oscillating within a range. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year - on - year, with an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream industry's demand was still weak, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to converge [8]. Industry News - As of July 24, the deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE were 21,617 bales. According to CFTC data, as of July 22, 2025, the net long - position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 18.94%, up 3.97 percentage points week - on - week [9]. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, various spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][23]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report High basis and concerns about tight supply continue to support the cotton futures price. The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the inventory of cotton spinning enterprises has slightly decreased, but the orders for grey cloth are still weak, and the ICE cotton futures are fluctuating narrowly with a slight decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 14,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.67%, and the night - session closed at 14,150 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,235 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.66% decline, and the night - session closed at 20,280 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.3 cents/pound with a 0.10% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 666,728 lots, an increase of 230,035 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 866,475 lots, a decrease of 21,810 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 14,576 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 9,411 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,226, a decrease of 39, and the effective forecast was 350, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 91, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 96 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.58% compared with the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.59%. The price in Shandong was 15,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan or 0.52%; the price in Hebei was 15,589 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.33%. The 3128B index was 15,609 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan or 0.39%. The international cotton index M was 75.80 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.62%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.19%, and the arrival price was 22,092 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan or 0.07% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the delivery of old cotton is relatively good, and the basis quotes of some cotton enterprises have slightly decreased, but the overall basis is still stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the Corps' goods are quoted at 1600 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, with downstream rigid - demand procurement as the main mode, and traders have a small amount of restocking. The inventory of spinning enterprises has slightly decreased. The orders for grey cloth are still weak, mainly small rigid - demand orders. Traditionally, market sampling orders will appear around the end of July and early August, but textile mills are more cautious this year, so they mainly purchase small orders of cotton yarn [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly yesterday, and the market still lacks fundamental guidance. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US cotton slightly decreased. As of the week of July 27, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% in the previous week and 49% in the same period last year [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Overview - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions and declined. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the downstream demand was difficult to boost. Spinning mills were still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate continued to decline due to high temperatures in the inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth was sluggish, with mostly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market was concerned about the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, the drought coverage remained low, and the net long position of CFTC funds increased slightly week-on-week. The external market had limited driving force and maintained a range-bound operation. Domestically, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest remained. The downstream spinning mills had a cold demand for cotton raw materials, but the overall rigid demand still existed. The operating rate of inland spinning mills had dropped to a relatively low level and was expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and shifted months, with a shock adjustment, and the 9-1 spread continued to converge [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions and declined. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine-picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) was mostly in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1500. Some 2023/24 Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps machine-picked cotton (3129/29B) was quoted at 15,600 - 15,700 yuan/ton or above. The basis of machine-picked cotton in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang (Grade 31, double 29) was mostly quoted in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1250, with a small amount lower than this price. The sales basis of the same quality machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang in the 2023/24 season was mainly in the range of CF09 + 900 - 1100, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The market price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the downstream demand was difficult to boost. Spinning mills were still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate continued to decline due to high temperatures in the inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth was sluggish, with mostly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market was concerned about the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, the drought coverage remained low, and the net long position of CFTC funds increased slightly week-on-week. The external market had limited driving force and maintained a range-bound operation. Domestically, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest remained. The downstream spinning mills had a cold demand for cotton raw materials, but the overall rigid demand still existed. The operating rate of inland spinning mills had dropped to a relatively low level and was expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and shifted months, with a shock adjustment, and the 9-1 spread continued to converge [8] 2. Industry News - As of July 24, the number of deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE was 21,617 bales, compared with 21,635 bales on the previous trading day. According to CFTC data, as of July 22, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was -18.94% (up 3.97 percentage points week-on-week, and up 3.97 percentage points last week) [9]. - According to the statistics of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), as of July 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan for the 2025/26 season reached 46,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22%. Among them, textile mills purchased 39,000 tons, and the unsold new cotton was 2,000 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, as well as exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee [17][18][23]