Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton declined by over 2% in the week ending May 16, pressured by the bearish USDA May supply - demand report, increased old - crop warehouse receipts, and favorable weather in major US cotton - growing areas. The domestic textile industry's operation is stable, but the downstream confidence is weak, with开机率 decreasing due to poor profits and limited new orders. The rebound of domestic cotton futures is mainly driven by market optimism from Sino - US talks, but there is a risk of decline if Xinjiang weather remains good and textile enterprises'开机率 continues to drop. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,900 [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: Open at 67.61, High at 68.89, Low at 64.75, Close at 65.14, Down 1.58 or 2.37%, Volume 120,492 lots, Volume Change 19,586 lots, Open Interest 113,188 lots, Open Interest Change 7,367 lots - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: Open at 12,945, High at 13,480, Low at 12,920, Close at 13,390, Up 440 or 3.40%, Volume 1,295,371 lots, Volume Change 487,287 lots, Open Interest 572,606 lots, Open Interest Change - 1,478 lots - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: Open at 19,205, High at 19,855, Low at 19,160, Close at 19,620, Up 400 or 2.08%, Volume 32,098 lots, Volume Change 9,847 lots, Open Interest 20,605 lots, Open Interest Change - 1,578 lots [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Pressured by the bearish USDA May supply - demand report, increased old - crop warehouse receipts, and good weather in major US cotton - growing areas, ICE cotton declined. For the 2024/25 old - crop, USDA raised US cotton exports by 200,000 bales, but less than expected. The estimated ending stocks of 4.8 million bales pressured the July contract. For the 2025/26 new - crop, with a 11.7% year - on - year decrease in area and a 15.2% abandonment rate, production is expected to reach 14.5 million bales, and ending stocks will increase by 400,000 bales to 5.2 million bales [1][5] - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending May 8, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing was 27,700 tons, up 86% week - on - week and 2% above the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 74,700 tons, down 17% week - on - week and 5% below the four - week average. The total signed sales of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton reached 2.6296 million tons, accounting for 109% of the annual forecasted exports. The cumulative export shipments were 1.997 million tons, accounting for 76% of the total annual signed volume. New flower pre - sales were poor, and Pakistan continued to cancel contracts due to weak domestic demand [6] - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: In February, cotton imports decreased month - on - month, and so did the exports of cotton yarn and textile clothing. As of April 30, the Cotton Corporation of India sold about 200,000 bales of cotton, reducing its inventory to 7 million bales. The arrival volume this season has reached 27.5 million bales. The daily arrival volume is about 27,000 bales, mostly from Maharashtra. In February, raw cotton imports were 49,126 tons, down 17% from January but higher than last year. The cumulative imports in the first seven months of this season reached 439,237 tons, mainly from Australia and the African Franc Zone. In February, raw cotton exports were 37,651 tons, down 8% from the previous month and 69% from February 2024. Bangladesh is the main destination. Cotton yarn exports in February were 92,100 tons, slightly lower than in January and 8% lower than in February 2024. The total cotton yarn exports in the first seven months of this year were 625,064 tons, 8% less than in the same period of 2023/24. Textile exports in February were $2.05 billion, down 6% month - on - month but slightly higher than in February 2024 [8] - **Brazil**: Recent trading was light. CONAB slightly raised the 2024/25 cotton production forecast to 3.905 million tons, mainly due to the increased planting area in Bahia. About 60% of the 2025 - season cotton has been sold through primary channels. Farmers are hesitant to sell at current prices. In Mato Grosso, about 16% of the 2026 - season production has been sold. In April, raw cotton exports were 239,145 tons, similar to March and last year. Turkey is the largest buyer, followed by Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. The cumulative exports from July to April exceeded 2.55 million tons, more than in the same period of 2023/24 [9] - **Pakistan**: Cotton demand is low. Favorable weather has promoted sowing, but water shortages in some areas of Sindh still hinder field operations. In Punjab, sowing progress is faster than last year, exceeding 60% of the planned target, while in Sindh, the sowing completion rate is 33%. The local cotton market is inactive. Ginning mills are eager to clear inventory, but few spinning mills are willing to buy due to low profits [10] - **Australia**: Cotton exports in March were low. The production report is good, with an expected output of about 5.5 million bales, potentially the highest since 2022/23. However, untimely rainfall during the critical growth period may affect cotton quality, and the market is closely watching the early grading results [10] - **Bangladesh**: Cotton imports in April remained stable. Many spinning mills have good orders and replenishment needs, but difficulties in opening letters of credit still hinder transactions. In April, cotton imports were 148,449 tons, slightly up month - on - month and 12% up year - on - year. African Franc Zone cotton is the main import source, followed by Brazilian and Indian cotton. The total imports in the first nine months of 2024 were 1.25 million tons, up 16% year - on - year [11] - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operation Rates**: As of the week ending May 16, India's textile enterprises'开机率 was 75.5%, Vietnam's was 66%, and Pakistan's was 59% [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Price and Transaction**: Domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly in the week ending May 16, but spot transactions became lighter. After Sino - US tariff withdrawals, although some orders returned and backlogged orders were re - shipped, new orders were limited. The profit of downstream industries deteriorated as the price increase of cotton yarn and grey cloth was less than that of cotton, leading to low willingness to replenish raw materials [1][2][12] - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 16, the registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton were 11,548 lots, and the forecasted warehouse receipts were 365 lots, totaling 11,913 lots, equivalent to 500,346 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, 11,015 were Xinjiang cotton and 533 were local cotton [12] - **Downstream Market**: The transaction in the pure - cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half of the week. The prices of 40 - 60 count cotton yarns increased by 300 - 500 yuan/ton. The profit of inland spinning mills was slightly negative, while that of Xinjiang spinning mills was good. Spinning mills' cotton yarn inventory first increased and then decreased, currently at a moderately low level, and the开机率 was stable. The overall situation in the all - cotton grey cloth market improved slightly. After the Sino - US joint statement, some traceable orders returned, but the overall order volume recovery was not obvious. The inventory of grey cloth remained high, and the开机率 of weaving mills was about 50%. Weaving mills were not willing to buy cotton yarn and mainly purchased as needed [13][14] 3. Basic Data Charts - Charts include Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mills' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), cotton yarn enterprises'开机率 (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises'开机率 (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are weak. Without new weather problems in US cotton - growing areas or major changes in US trade agreements, the upward momentum of ICE cotton is insufficient. The rebound of domestic cotton futures is mainly due to market optimism. If Xinjiang weather remains good and textile enterprises'开机率 continues to decline, Zhengzhou cotton futures may fall. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,900 [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Sino - US negotiation has made progress with reciprocal tariff cuts. The USDA May report shows that the 2025/26 cotton production will decline while consumption will increase, and the ending inventory remains unchanged. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In March, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.4%; cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2024/25 production at 6.16 million tons, imports at 1.5 million tons, consumption at 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.31 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - The basis shows that the national average price of spot 3128b is 14,484 yuan, with a basis of 1039 yuan (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - The inventory situation: The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of the 2024/25 ending inventory is 8.31 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - From the chart perspective, the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [4]. - The main positions: The net short positions are increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - In terms of expectations, textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year in April, indicating that exports are in a good state. With the Sino - US tariff cuts and last week's interest rate and reserve ratio cuts, there are many short - term positive factors, leading to a rapid rebound in futures. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the vicinity of the previous gap, and the selling pressure above has increased, weakening the upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 - 13,600 in the near future [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Bullish factors: The previous Sino - US reciprocal tariff increases have been reduced, and there will be a foreign trade restocking period in the next 90 days. The futures price is close to the historical low [5]. - Bearish factors: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, and Europe has introduced a bill to restrict imports [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Production**: In 2025/26, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.314 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9% (- 653,000 tons); India's production is expected to be 5.334 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2% (- 109,000 tons); while some regions like 'E' are expected to increase production by 7% (273,000 tons). The total global production is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% (- 710,000 tons) [10]. - **Global Consumption**: In 2025/26, global cotton consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% (304,000 tons) [10]. - **Global Import and Export**: The total global imports in 2025/26 are expected to be 9.759 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% (510,000 tons), and exports are expected to be 9.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% (517,000 tons) [11]. - **Global Ending Inventory**: The global ending inventory in 2025/26 is expected to be 17.065 million tons, with little change compared to the previous year [11]. - **China's Cotton Situation**: In 2024/25 (April estimate) and 2025/26 (May forecast), the beginning inventory is 7.12 million tons and 8.31 million tons respectively; the sown and harvested areas are increasing; the production in 2025/26 is expected to be 6.25 million tons; imports are expected to be 1.4 million tons; consumption is expected to be 7.4 million tons; and the ending inventory is expected to be 8.53 million tons [18]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market still lacks upward drivers [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 12,750 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.70%, and its trading volume was 243,543 lots, a decrease of 12,789 lots from the previous day, while the position increased by 343 lots to 758,897 lots; CY2507 closed at 18,790 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.16%, its trading volume was 5,366 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position increased by 1,045 lots to 19,713 lots; ICE Cotton 07 closed at 68.53 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.25% [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,040, an increase of 202 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,315, a decrease of 243; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1, an increase of 9 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,848 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan or 0.56% from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 14,246 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.45% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day; the 3128B index was 14,183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the international cotton index M was 74.90 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 1.41% from the previous day; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: The basis of domestic cotton spot was temporarily stable. The sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly around CF09 + 750, and some were quoted higher than CF09 + 850 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly above CF09 + 1000, and a small amount of low - price ones were between CF09 + 950 - 1000 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the transaction basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was partly between CF09 + 1250 - 1300 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was poor, and textile enterprises mainly negotiated sales. The price of cotton yarn was stable with a weak trend, market confidence was insufficient, and the operating rate of textile enterprises continued to decline [2] - **US Cotton Situation**: During the long holiday, ICE cotton rose by more than 3%, mainly due to a sharp increase on May 2nd, benefiting from the optimistic expectation of the trade agreement; the fundamental driving force in the international cotton market was still weak, the weather in the US cotton - growing areas improved, and the weekly export sales data of US cotton was average [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton was 0, indicating a neutral trend [3][4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年4月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 棉花现货市场价 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 USDA:4月消费调低，库存增加，略偏空。ICAC:4月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费不 变，期末库存略增，略偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比增12.4%。1-2月份我国棉 花进口15万吨，同比减少56.8%；棉纱进口21万吨，同比减少12.3%。农村部4月24/25 年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14210，基差1300（09合约） ...

Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: April 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market is experiencing shock adjustments after releasing short - term pressure, and the main contract is shifting to the far - month. Consider 5 - 9 reverse spreads. The external market has support, and attention should be paid to subsequent planting progress and macro - changes [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market sentiment has eased, and Zhengzhou cotton is in shock adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,293 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream cotton yarn and grey cloth markets are generally weak, with inventory accumulation and price declines [7] - The US dollar index has weakened due to the uncertainty of the Trump administration's import tariff policy. USDA's weekly export signing report shows a decline, but shipments are still at a peak. New - season planting progress is slightly slow, and the drought index is high. The domestic downstream demand is tepid, and the inventory pressure is not significant. After the release of short - term pressure, Zhengzhou cotton will mainly be in shock adjustment, and the main contract is shifting to the far - month. Consider 5 - 9 reverse spreads [8] 2. Industry News - In March 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.402 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 12.4%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative exports were 66.282 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1% [9] - As of the week of April 8, 2025, CFTC's non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures decreased, short positions continued to decline, and the total ICE positions decreased. The net long ratio was - 13.2%, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 42.9 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, spreads, inventories, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]