【华通白银网7月16日讯】•由于CPI数据缓和了近期降息的希望，金价跌至3330美元下方。 •在特朗普压力和鲍威尔继任不确定的情况下，美联储的可信度成为焦点。 •由于看涨势头在之前的三角阻力位附近消退，黄金在3335美元附近挣扎。 周二，在美国消费者价格指数（CPI）报告增强了美联储可能不会在近期调整利率的预期之后，黄金窄幅波动。 截止撰写本文时，黄金价格低于3330美元，风险情绪和风险情绪的小幅上升限制了上行走势。 6月消费者价格指数（CPI）显示，整体CPI同比上涨2.7%，符合预期，而核心CPI为2.9%，略低于3%的共识，但仍远高于美联储2%的目 标。 通胀放缓不及预期削弱了9月降息前景，美联储降息概率降至54.4%，而利率"长期维持高位"的概率升至44%。 市场的反应反映了利率预期的重新定价，美国国债收益率走强，美元走强。与此同时，特朗普继续向鲍威尔施压。 美国财政部长贝森特在接受彭博社采访时表示："正如特朗普所说，他不打算解雇鲍威尔。" 然而，贝森特周二也表示："按照传统，美联储主席在卸任时也会同时辞去理事一职。此前有很多关于'影子美联储主席'的讨论，称其会 在正式提名前造成混乱。我可以明确说，若 ...

Core Insights - WTO economists predict a slowdown in global goods trade growth later this year due to ample inventories and increased tariffs impacting import demand [1][7] - In the first quarter of 2025, global goods trade volume increased by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year, driven by a surge in North American imports in anticipation of higher U.S. tariffs [1][3] - The growth in trade volume exceeded WTO's earlier forecast of a 0.2% decline for the year [3] Trade Volume and Value - The dollar value of global goods trade, adjusted for seasonality, increased by 4% year-on-year in the first quarter, reflecting strong trade volume growth despite a decline in prices [3] - The first quarter saw significant growth in specific categories: office and telecommunications equipment (up 16%), chemicals (up 12%), and clothing (up 7%) [6] Regional Performance - North America led with a 13.4% quarter-on-quarter increase in imports, followed by Africa (5.1%), South America and Central America & Caribbean (3.6%), the Middle East (3.0%), Europe (1.3%), and Asia (1.1%) [4] - In terms of exports, the Middle East recorded the highest quarter-on-quarter growth at 6.3%, followed by Asia (5.6%) and South America (3.2%) [5] Future Trends - Data indicates that after a surge in the first quarter, import demand is beginning to slow down, with U.S. imports growing only 1% in the first two months of the second quarter after a 25% increase in the first quarter [7][8] - The World Bank reports a significant downward adjustment in trade growth forecasts for developed economies, with expected growth for 2025 being about half of earlier predictions [8]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.380 | 102.468 | 105.920 | 106.005 | 108.730 | 108.775 | 120.29 | 120.12 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.416 | 102.518 | 105.995 | 106.095 | 108.830 | 108.885 | 120.61 | 120.44 | | | 涨跌 | -0.036 | -0.050 | -0.075 | -0.090 | -0.100 | -0.110 | -0.320 | -0.320 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For aluminum, due to high macro uncertainty and slight inventory accumulation, prices are expected to move within a range in the short term, and future attention should be paid to news and downstream off - season conditions [11] - For zinc, supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - and long - term supply increases will put upward pressure; attention should be paid to news development [13] - For tin, prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the downward pressure will increase in the medium term [14] Section Summaries 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 4 to July 11, 2025, copper futures (CU2508) decreased by 1.63%, aluminum futures (AL2508) increased by 0.29%, zinc futures (ZN2508) decreased by 0.13%, tin futures (SN2508) decreased by 1.24%, and nickel futures (NI2508) decreased by 0.72%. Spot copper prices decreased by 2.18%, aluminum by 0.05%, zinc by 1.75%, tin by 0.47%, and nickel by 1.05% [8] 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast - **Aluminum** - **Logic**: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. Trade tensions increased due to new tariffs, and there was a possibility of Fed rate - cuts. Nationally, the alumina operating rate decreased, and overseas, Guinea imposed shipping requirements on bauxite exports. Alumina inventory increased, and downstream demand was weak [10] - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term [11] - **Zinc** - **Logic**: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated within a range. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees were stable, and import fees increased. The zinc ingot import window remained closed. Downstream galvanizing开工率 increased, and zinc inventory rose [13] - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - and long - term supply increases will put pressure [13] - **Tin** - **Logic**: Myanmar's supply progress was slower than expected, causing a shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Downstream demand showed signs of phased contraction [14] - **Viewpoint**: Slightly stronger in the short term, but downward pressure increases in the medium term [14] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - **Price**: Domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton; low - grade at 570 yuan/ton. Imported bauxite index average price was 73.72 dollars/ton, down 0.58 dollars/ton [18] - **Port Volume**: Bauxite arrival volume was 420.49 million tons, up 8.74 million tons; departure volume was 429.2 million tons, up 18.94 million tons [21] - **Alumina** - **Price and Profit**: Domestic price in Henan was 3150 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; cost was 2844.4 yuan/ton, down 4.7 yuan/ton; profit in Shanxi was 225.05 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [24] - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - **Cost and Spread**: Total cost was 16571.68 yuan/ton, up 101.54 yuan/ton; regional spread (Foshan - SMM A00 aluminum) was - 10 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [26] - **Downstream Processing**:开工率 of aluminum cable, foil, plate, profile, primary and secondary aluminum alloy showed different changes [29][31] - **Inventory**: Various inventory data, including保税区, social, and exchange inventories, showed different trends [36][37] - **Spot and Basis**: Different basis data for SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan changed [42][45] - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of Shanghai aluminum futures changed [46] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - **Price and Processing Fee**: Domestic zinc concentrate price was 17088 yuan/metal ton, up 16 yuan/metal ton; domestic processing fee was 3800 yuan/metal ton, unchanged; import processing fee was 66.25 dollars/dry ton, up 1 dollar/dry ton [50] - **Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory**: Production profit was 4088 yuan/metal ton, up 16 yuan/metal ton; import loss was 864.57 yuan/ton, down 152.17 yuan/ton; import zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang was 80,000 physical tons, down 10,000 tons [55] - **Refined Zinc** - **Inventory**: Various inventory data, including social,保税区, and exchange inventories, showed different trends [58] - **Galvanizing** - **Production,开工率, and Inventory**: Production was 345,545 tons, up 19,495 tons;开工率 was 58.29%, up 1.81%; raw material inventory was 14,370 tons, up 1,110 tons; finished product inventory was 341,700 tons, up 9,300 tons [61] - **Zinc Basis and Inter - month Spread**: Different basis and spread data changed [64][68] Tin - **Refined Tin** - **Production and开工率**: Yunnan and Jiangxi's combined production was 0.262 million tons, up 0.05 million tons;开工率 was 54.07%, up 1.03% [72] - **Tin Ingot** - **Inventory**: SHFE tin ingot inventory was 7097 tons, down 101 tons; social inventory was 9644 tons, down 110 tons [75] - **Tin Concentrate** - **Processing Fee**: Processing fees in different regions remained unchanged but were lower year - on - year [77] - **Import Profit and Loss**: Import profit was 12005.23 yuan/ton, down 2059.74 yuan/ton [78] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of tin concentrates in different regions decreased by 600 yuan/ton [82]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing its longest losing streak against the US dollar in two years, leading options traders to adopt a bearish outlook on the currency [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The pound fell 0.3% to a three-week low of 1.3452 USD, marking its seventh consecutive day of decline, the longest since July 2023 [3]. - The decline is attributed to a stronger US dollar and concerns over slowing economic growth in the UK [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - UK economic data revealed a surprise contraction of 0.1% in May, highlighting downside risks to growth and reinforcing market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Bank of England [3]. - Current market pricing indicates an expectation of 58 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, up from 51 basis points the previous week [1]. Group 3: Central Bank Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in the next meeting is now estimated at 80%, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach until at least September [5]. - Upcoming key data releases, including inflation reports from both the UK and the US, as well as UK labor market data, are anticipated to influence market sentiment [5].

Core Viewpoint - London copper prices are experiencing a decline due to heightened trade tensions, which are negatively impacting the overall sentiment in the commodity market [1] Group 1: Market Impact - During the European afternoon trading session, three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell by 0.6%, reaching $9,602 per ton [1] - Concerns over economic slowdown have emerged following President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on goods from the EU and Mexico, which may weaken demand for industrial metals [1] Group 2: Tariff Effects - Trump has also announced a 50% tariff on imported red copper starting August 1, although specific details are yet to be disclosed, adding further pressure on copper prices [1] - Barclays analysts suggest that rising costs for U.S. buyers could lead to a temporary demand gap, exerting additional pressure on copper prices [1] - However, Barclays expects the impact on LME copper prices to be short-lived [1]

英国央行行长释放可能加大降息力度的信号，加剧了市场对英国货币政策的鸽派预期，导致英镑承压。 周一，英国央行行长贝利暗示，如果就业市场恶化速度快于预期，央行可能会进行更大幅度的降息。此番言论迅速在市场引发反响，交易员增加 了对英国央行放宽政策的押注。货币市场目前预计英国央行在年底前将累计降息58个基点，高于上周五约51个基点的预期。 消息公布后，英镑兑美元汇率一度下跌0.3%，至三周低点1.348美元。若当日收盘下跌，将标志着英镑连续七个交易日走低，是自2023年7月以来 最长的连跌纪录。 多重因素施压英镑，期权市场看跌情绪升温 贝利的表态直接改变了市场的利率预期。货币市场目前认为，英国央行在下一次会议上降息25个基点的可能性高达80%。这一鸽派立场与美联储 形成鲜明反差，市场普遍预计美联储至少在9月前将维持利率不变。政策预期的分化正对英镑构成压力。 英镑的疲软前景同样反映在期权市场。一项衡量看涨期权与看跌期权需求的指标"一个月风险逆转"（One-month risk reversals），已跌至今年2月以 来的最低点，显示市场对英镑的看跌情绪达到近五个月高位。该指标的时间跨度覆盖了下一次英国央行和美联储的议息 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's potential announcement regarding further sanctions on Russia, particularly in the energy sector, could significantly alter the oil market outlook [1] Group 1: Oil Market Impact - Oil prices have increased, with Brent and WTI crude futures both rising by 0.5% in anticipation of Trump's statement [1] - The possibility of new sanctions targeting Russian energy could lead to substantial changes in oil supply dynamics [1] Group 2: Trade Tensions - The recent escalation in trade tensions has limited the extent of price increases, as the latest tariff threats from the U.S. cast a shadow over energy demand prospects [1]

晨报 铝锭 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：国内累库继续 铝价区间调整 投资咨询业务资格： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 14 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价区间偏强运行。宏观上美国总统特朗普宣布对加拿大和 其他贸易伙伴征收新关税，贸易紧张局势再度升温。美联储理事沃勒周四 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meetings between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio is the necessity to transform the consensus reached by the two heads of state into specific policies and actions to stabilize and improve bilateral relations [1][2] - The meeting is significant as it marks the first face-to-face contact at a high level since Trump returned to the White House, highlighting the importance of regular interactions to build a stable foundation for U.S.-China relations [2][3] - There is a strong possibility of a future meeting between President Trump and Chinese leaders, contingent on creating a favorable atmosphere and preparing for outcomes [3][4] Group 2 - The discussions emphasized the importance of maintaining open communication channels and exploring potential areas of cooperation while managing differences [5] - The frequency and timeliness of U.S.-China interactions are noted to be lacking compared to previous administrations, which does not align with the significance of the bilateral relationship [5] - The focus of the recent talks was not primarily on trade issues, despite ongoing tensions, indicating a broader agenda for cooperation beyond economic matters [4][5]