最近，一则"6.6万亿美元美债6月到期，美国可能违约"的消息在中文互联网疯传。 乍一看，似乎美国经济即将迎来"审判日"，但仔细一查，这完全是个被夸大的谣言。 根据美国财政部4月报告，6月到期的美债规模约为1.45万亿美元（短债1.27万亿+中债0.18万亿）。考虑到5月新增的短债滚动，预计6月实际到期规模在2.3 万亿美元左右，远低于网传的6.6万亿。 但问题来了，辟谣"6月危机论"，不代表美债安全。相反，真正的恐怖在于：从2023年开始，美国每个月都有超过2万亿美元的美债到期，必须靠借新还旧才 能维持。 换句话说，美债危机不是"6月会不会爆"，而是"每个月都可能爆"。 就在市场还在讨论"6月美债危机会不会来"时，德意志银行（德银）已经发出更严峻的警告："这次连美联储的QE（量化宽松）都救不了市场。" 德银在最新报告中指出，当前美债危机的核心，是外国投资者（尤其是亚洲资金）不再愿意为美国的"双赤字"（财政赤字+贸易赤字）买单。 过去，美国可以靠美联储印钞或海外资本流入来维持债务循环，但现在，外资正在撤离。 为什么这次美联储束手无策？ 自2022年美联储激进加息后，美国长期国债利率飙升（目前10年期美债收益率仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent poor performance of long-term government bond auctions in Japan and the United States has raised concerns in global markets, leading to fears of a potential crisis in the bond market, with questions about who will absorb the "unwanted bonds" [1][4][11]. Group 1: Japan's Bond Market - The recent auction of 20-year Japanese government bonds was disappointing, with a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, and a tail difference of 1.14, the highest since 1987 [1][4]. - Japanese insurance companies are reluctant to purchase long-term bonds due to significant losses from rising interest rates, leading to a trend of net selling by domestic investors [4][5]. - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 250%, significantly higher than the U.S. at 120%, yet the bond market has not faced a crisis, largely due to the Bank of Japan's support [5][6]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year bonds with a final yield of 5.047%, marking the second time yields have surpassed 5%, indicating weak demand [8][9]. - The rising yields in U.S. bonds have led to a significant drop in stock markets, with the VIX index rising by 15% and the dollar index falling below 100 [8][9]. - Concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and the potential for further tax cuts are contributing to the weak demand for U.S. bonds, as investors are wary of increasing debt levels [9][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that if market conditions stabilize, the critical question will be who will absorb the government bonds, particularly in light of the Bank of Japan's potential need to reconsider its yield curve control (YCC) policy [11][12]. - The U.S. government may need to adjust its bond issuance strategy to avoid overwhelming the market during sensitive periods, while the Federal Reserve could consider implementing YCC to maintain interest rate stability [13].

Group 1 - Japan's 20-year government bond auction on May 20 was disappointing, with a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, and a tail difference of 1.14, the highest since 1987 [1][3] - The demand for U.S. 20-year bonds was also weak following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, leading to rising long-term interest rates, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.6% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5% [1][7] - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a trend where foreign investors are buying while domestic investors are selling, with life insurance companies facing significant losses and refusing to purchase long-term bonds [1][4] Group 2 - The poor performance of the Japanese bond auction is attributed to two main factors: regulatory changes prompting insurance companies to buy long-term bonds and an oversupply of long-term bonds due to excessive issuance by the government [3][4] - The Bank of Japan's long-term bond holdings have decreased by 2.2% to 576.6 trillion yen since last July, and it plans to reduce bond purchases further, which may impact market stability [4][10] - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 250%, significantly higher than the U.S. at 120%, yet the Japanese bond market has not faced a crisis due to the Bank of Japan's support [4][5] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year bonds with a final yield of 5.047%, indicating weak demand and a need for higher yields to attract buyers [7][8] - The market is concerned about the impact of rising yields on the stock market, with historical data suggesting that significant increases in yields can lead to stock market pressure [8][9] - Analysts suggest that the U.S. government may need to adjust its bond issuance strategy to alleviate market pressure, and the Federal Reserve could consider yield curve control (YCC) as a potential measure [9][10]

问题在于，联储不是早就放话，说要缩表？说要让市场回归自主运作？可眼下的动作怎么看都像是在暗中兜底。这种兜底，看似缓解了债市 抛压，实则埋下了更大的隐患。你不能一边说自己退出，一边在暗地里伸手。市场不是那么好骗的。 更关键的是，这种操作一旦持续下去，会给市场释放出危险信号。投资者会以为，美债风险上升了，美联储要保底。这种心理预期，一旦蔓 延，美元会先感冒。看看近两周美元指数的表现，震荡幅度在加剧，而不是收敛。美股、美债、美元三者之间，本来就是一个危险的平衡。 美联储一旦在其中一角动了手，其他两个就可能出问题。 我们总说不可能三角，这并非空谈。美联储要压通胀，又想稳汇率，同时维持债务市场稳定，这三个目标，任何一个的实现都需要牺牲另一 个。如今它在暗中撑债市，是不是意味着已经默认牺牲美元了？如果是，那资本市场该怎么走，会不会又是一场类似2008年的剧本？ 看看资金的走向，5月以来，大量海外机构资金流出美债市场，亚洲、欧洲的主权基金开始显著减持。与此美国本土的银行系统也在边缘徘 徊，根本没能力大举接盘。而美联储此时动用工具缓解流动性，你说是巧合，谁信？ 美联储到底在打什么算盘？有人说，它又一次悄悄出手了。这回，不是升 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin has been experiencing significant volatility, with predictions suggesting a potential peak soon, possibly within a 5% to 10% increase from current levels [3][5] - The Fear and Greed Index indicates that Bitcoin is currently in an extreme greed phase, suggesting that it may be time to consider selling [3][5] - The upcoming Bitcoin conference on May 27 is anticipated to be a critical point for market activity, potentially signaling a time to exit positions [5] Group 2 - Ethereum's price action appears weak, with a potential head and shoulders pattern indicating a possible decline to around 2280 or 2360 if certain support levels are breached [5] - A major whale in the market has been selling off positions, aligning with the strategy of buying during fear and selling during greed [7] - The Federal Reserve has reportedly begun quantitative easing by purchasing $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, which could inject liquidity into the market [14][19] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent actions may be a response to issues in the U.S. Treasury market, where a recent bond auction failed to sell the full amount, indicating underlying economic concerns [17][19] - Future plans for the Federal Reserve include lowering the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), allowing banks to purchase more Treasury bonds, which could further impact market liquidity [19][21] - The combination of potential interest rate cuts in September and significant tax cuts proposed by Trump could create favorable conditions for market recovery in the latter part of the year [21]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has secretly purchased $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a return to quantitative easing (QE) practices, which is not typical for the Fed [1] - Financial analyst Lyn Alden suggests that while the Fed has not officially labeled this as QE, the act of buying bonds is essentially a form of monetary easing, regardless of the terminology used [1] - The rise in gold prices reflects a lack of trust in politicians and central bankers, with gold being seen as a reliable asset amidst economic uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin has also reacted positively, driven by skepticism towards central planners and the recent halving event that has historically led to bullish trends in its price [2] - The Trump administration's shift towards recognizing Bitcoin as a strategic asset, along with increased institutional investment in Bitcoin ETFs, signifies its growing acceptance in mainstream finance [2] - Brazil's economy, driven by commodities, is experiencing a bull market, with ETFs like iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) and iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) rising approximately 24% this year, attributed to the Fed's actions leading to a weaker dollar and rising commodity prices [3] Group 3 - The covert QE actions by the Fed may accelerate returns in gold, Bitcoin, and resource-rich economies like Brazil, positioning them as safe havens and profit opportunities amid financial turbulence [3] - Investors who remain vigilant and act on these signals are likely to capture excess returns, as indicated by Charlie Garcia, founder and managing partner of R360, who holds positions in gold, silver, and Bitcoin [4]

美联储真的不确定（美国总统特朗普挑起的）关税将何去何从（如何着陆）。 美联储不做出过多的（货币政策）承诺似乎是适宜之举。 美国经济形势似乎不错。 前美国纽约联储副主席（在职时为"美联储三把手"）：美联储主席鲍威尔5月7日的新闻发布会表态不足 为奇。 鲍威尔承认，应当提前缩减（之前实施的）量化宽松（QE）。 ...

鲍威尔：我们听到最多的一个问题是，应该更好地解释量化宽松（QE）。 不想再经济脆弱的时候大幅收紧金融条件。 从事后来看，美联储应该提前缩减QE还是加快缩减QE的速度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a potential successor to the Federal Reserve Chair and a Trump ally, criticized the Federal Reserve for systemic errors in managing the worst inflation in a generation, highlighting a crisis of credibility due to its overreach and inconsistent policies [2][6]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Warsh accused the Federal Reserve of failing to control inflation and described its independence as a "conditional contract," suggesting that the public's trust has been severely undermined by the Fed's actions [2][6]. - He emphasized that the Fed's role has become increasingly blurred, as it has intervened deeply in U.S. economic decisions, leading to systemic biases in macroeconomic policy [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Policy Concerns - Warsh reflected on his tenure during the 2008 financial crisis, noting that the Fed's unconventional policies were initially necessary but have since led to a dangerous entanglement with fiscal policy [3][4]. - He expressed concern that the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) policies have evolved into a nearly perpetual tool, with the balance sheet expanding to $7 trillion, ten times its size when he joined [4]. Group 3: Broader Implications of Fed's Actions - The Fed's involvement in non-traditional areas, such as climate policy and social equity, has diluted its core mission of maintaining price stability and full employment, leading to potential negative consequences for the very groups it aims to protect [5][6]. - Warsh warned that the Fed's independence is not an inherent privilege but a design to achieve specific policy goals, and its credibility is at risk if it continues to overstep its boundaries [6][7]. Group 4: Recommendations for the Federal Reserve - To restore its credibility and independence, the Fed must refocus on price stability and rebuild trust in its professional domain, ensuring that its actions yield tangible benefits for the public [7].

值得注意的是，随着上述关税暂缓政策的出台，美股市场4月9日报复性大幅反弹，然而，4月10日美股 开盘时再现低迷行情，而10年期美债收益率继续上行，再度引发市场担忧。 遭遇历史性抛售 研究机构认为，这次美债危机直接导火索是基差交易遭遇崩盘，但背后是资本市场对美国关税政策投 出"反对票"，开启了一场"股债汇三杀"的系统性风暴。 在美国推出所谓"对等关税"之后，时隔短短数日，当地时间4月9日下午，美国总统特朗普突然改主意 了，宣布对大部分国家暂缓90天实施"对等关税"，在这90天里保留10%的基准关税。据美国媒体报道， 美国财政部内部对美国国债被大量抛售的担忧，正是暂停"对等关税"的一个核心因素。特朗普也承认， 债券市场非常复杂，看到人们有点不安，对此，政府"必须有灵活性"。 在关税暂缓政策出台之后，当日美国股市大幅反弹，但是债券和美元汇率仍然表现低迷。而引发此轮美 债抛售的前兆是本周国债拍卖遇冷。4月7日，美国财政部58亿美元3年期国债拍卖惨淡，创2023年以来 最低水平，加剧了市场的悲观情绪，市场对后续10年期和30年期国债拍卖的担忧迅速升温。此外，市场 对美国政府"对等关税"政策的担忧进一步放大了美债抛售压力 ...