铜: 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货80890，基差350，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：7月2日铜库存增2000至93250吨，上期所铜库存较上周减19264吨至81550吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价偏强运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美 ...

Group 1 - Aluminerie Alouette, an aluminum manufacturer partially owned by Rio Tinto, plans to invest up to 1.5 billion CAD (1.1 billion USD) for modernization of its plant in Northern Quebec [1] - The company has reached a new electricity supply agreement with Hydro-Quebec, the provincial government’s electricity supplier [1] - This investment is seen as positive news for the aluminum industry, which is facing pressure from U.S. tariffs on aluminum imports [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported aluminum, which is expected to impact U.S. aluminum-consuming companies, such as Constellation Brands Inc., which anticipates a loss of approximately 20 million USD in the remaining fiscal year due to these tariffs [1] - Canada is the largest aluminum supplier to the U.S., and the U.S. lacks sufficient domestic aluminum smelting capacity to meet its demand [1] - Quebec produces 70% of North America's aluminum, highlighting its importance in meeting U.S. demand [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean and meal market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors. The domestic soybean meal valuation is under pressure, but the overall soybean or protein supply is still in excess. It requires a reduction in production at the raw material end to have upward momentum [2][4]. - The oil market is affected by the U.S. biodiesel policy draft, but the upside space is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major demand countries. It is expected to fluctuate [6][8]. - The sugar price may continue to decline due to factors such as weak real - demand during the delivery of the July contract of raw sugar, chaotic domestic monthly spread structure, and high profit from out - of - quota imports [10][11]. - The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate. The U.S. cotton planting intention report is negative, and the high cotton good rate is not conducive to cotton prices. Although the expectation of Sino - U.S. negotiations supports cotton prices, the fundamentals are not favorable [13][14]. - The egg price is expected to be stable in many places. Considering the current situation, the medium - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to short, and the short - term strategy for near - month contracts is to reduce short positions or wait and see [16][18]. - The pig price may stop rising and stabilize in some areas, and continue to rise in others. For near - term contracts, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices before delivery, while for下半年 contracts, short positions can be taken at high prices later [20][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, the U.S. soybean rose driven by U.S. soybean oil. The U.S. Senate extended 45Z to 2029 and restricted tax credits for non - North American raw materials, which is beneficial to U.S. soybean oil. The good weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas puts pressure on U.S. soybeans, but the valuation is slightly low. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell by about 10 yuan on Wednesday, the oil mill's operating rate is still high, and the far - month sales volume increased. The domestic port soybean inventory and oil mill soybean meal inventory are in an accumulation trend [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,020 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased in June, while the production decreased slightly. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% month - on - month. The U.S. Senate's 45Z bill is beneficial to U.S. soybean oil, driving up the oil market. The EPA policy is beneficial to the oil market, but there are still negative factors due to the recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The U.S. biodiesel policy draft supports the oil price center, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price first fell and then rebounded. The spot price of sugar in various regions decreased slightly. As of the end of June 2024/25, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi increased year - on - year, and the inventory decreased [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The sugar price may continue to decline [11]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated strongly. The U.S. 2025 cotton planting area is higher than expected, and the cotton good rate is higher than the same period last year. The domestic cotton price is supported by the expectation of Sino - U.S. negotiations, but the basis strengthening is not conducive to downstream consumption [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - U.S. negotiations [14]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price is mainly stable, with little change in supply and conservative demand [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The medium - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to short, and the short - term strategy for near - month contracts is to reduce short positions or wait and see [18]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price generally rose yesterday. The supply tension may be alleviated, but the downstream slaughter enterprises' willingness to accept high prices is poor [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices before delivery; for下半年 contracts such as 11 and 01, short positions can be taken at high prices later [21].

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

惠誉：贸易战和政策不确定性破坏2025年全球信用前景。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs. Each product faces a unique set of market conditions, with both bullish and bearish factors influencing their prices. The overall market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, trade policies, and weather conditions [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meal - **Market Conditions**: US soybeans were nearly flat on Tuesday, with a minor adjustment in the USDA area report and a muted market reaction. Favorable weather and the trade war are pressuring US soybeans, but low valuations provide some support. In China, the spot price of soybean meal fell by about 10 yuan, with a high but decreasing oil mill operating rate, weakening meal sales, and strong提货. The domestic port soybean inventory was 8.09 million tons, and the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons, showing a continuous inventory build - up trend [2]. - **Cost and Supply**: The cost range of far - month soybean meal contracts such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,020 yuan/ton. The current oil mill crushing volume is at a record high for the same period, leading to reduced downstream buying interest, faster inventory build - up, and a depressed domestic soybean meal valuation. Although the import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating due to low valuations, EPA policy support, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier from September to January, the overall supply of soybeans or protein remains excessive [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the mixed market situation, it is recommended to test long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in June, while production showed a mixed trend. Brazil's expected soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports in June have changed compared to previous forecasts. The domestic oil market was oscillating on Tuesday, with weak global oil import data weighing on prices. However, low Indian inventories, potential minor inventory reduction of Malaysian palm oil in June, and biodiesel policy support provided some upward momentum [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The US biodiesel policy draft has supported the oil price center, but the current high valuation limits the upside potential due to factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, macroeconomic conditions, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries. The market is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating view of the oil market [9]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined slightly. The spot prices of different sugar producers showed mixed trends. In the first half of June, Brazil's central - southern region had a significant decrease in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production compared to the same period last year. The delivery volume of the July raw sugar futures contract is expected to be the lowest since 2014 [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the low - price and low - volume delivery of the July raw sugar contract, the chaotic domestic futures spread structure, and the high profit margin of out - of - quota sugar imports after the decline in foreign prices, the sugar price may continue to fall [12]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weakly oscillating. The US 2025 cotton planting area forecast by USDA is higher than market expectations, and the US cotton good - to - excellent rate has improved compared to the previous week. In China, the recent expectation of Sino - US negotiations is supporting the cotton price, but the rapidly strengthening basis is unfavorable for downstream consumption, slowing down the inventory reduction speed, and there is a possibility of import quota issuance in the future [14][15]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price may continue to oscillate. Pay close attention to the outcome of Sino - US negotiations [15]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The national egg price was stable with some declines. The supply changed little, while the demand was conservative, and industry players were cautious. The egg price is expected to be stable in most areas and slightly weaker in some regions [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the weak and stable spot price, the time is unfavorable for long positions in the near - month contracts. However, the later the seasonal price increase occurs, the greater the potential divergence in the peak - season contracts. Considering the large production capacity and insufficient de - stocking, the medium - term strategy is to wait for price rebounds to short, and in the short term, reduce short positions at low prices or adopt a wait - and - see approach for near - month contracts [17]. Pigs - **Spot Market**: The domestic pig price continued to rise on the previous day. The supply of pigs for slaughter may still be limited, but most downstream buyers are resistant to high - price pigs, and the supply of pigs for slaughter may gradually increase, limiting the upward space of the pig price [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, it is recommended to take short - term long positions at appropriate low prices before delivery. For contracts in the second half of the year such as 11 and 01, since their valuations are above the cost line and they are likely to experience a transition from inventory build - up to de - stocking, wait for high - price opportunities to short [20].

| | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/7/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1883.500 30.9↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | | 1367.9 | -0.90↓ | | 期货盘面 | 515.60 -5.50↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 EC2508-EC2510价差 | | | 355.50 | -11.40↓ | | EC合约基差 | | 239.74 | +21.40↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 36335 | | -4141↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2123.24 186.10↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,619.19 | -464.27↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1861.51 -8.08↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1369.34 ...

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -

Group 1 - European companies are facing a "very, very serious" shortage of rare earth magnets, prompting the EU ambassador to call for urgent resolution from China [1] - The shortage stems from China's export controls on key minerals, including rare earth magnets, implemented in response to U.S. tariffs [1] - China's rare earth magnet exports have significantly declined, disrupting global automotive and high-tech supply chains, with European firms expressing the most concern [1] Group 2 - The EU's contradictory stance towards China is evident, as it attempts to engage in trade while simultaneously portraying China as a common threat with the U.S. [2] - In 2024, the EU plans to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, highlighting the ongoing tensions despite the need for cooperation [2] - The EU's actions, such as excluding Chinese products from public procurement, reflect a protectionist approach that undermines economic dialogue [5] Group 3 - The trade dynamics reveal a significant trade surplus for China with the EU, which increased by nearly 23% in the first five months of the year, reaching a record $117 billion [7] - The EU's current predicament is a result of its strategic double standards, seeking concessions from China while maintaining pressure [7] - A genuine "fair competition environment" requires mutual respect and equal rules, rather than unilateral demands from the EU [7]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Canada's implementation of a "digital services tax" targeting U.S. tech companies, prompting President Trump to halt all trade negotiations with Canada [1][3] - Canadian officials are urging the government to diversify trade relationships to reduce reliance on the U.S., with British Columbia Premier David Eby advocating for building new global partnerships [1][3] - The digital services tax is set to take effect in June, with Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland asserting that there will be no negotiations to cancel it, signaling a firm stance against U.S. pressure [3][4] Group 2 - The trade conflict is not new, as it stems from a tax law passed by Canada last year, which aims to address the perceived market dominance of U.S. tech firms in Canada and their tax avoidance practices [4] - Canada has also taken actions against Chinese companies, such as Hikvision, citing national security concerns, which has drawn criticism from China for lacking transparency and fairness [4][5] - The economic relationship between Canada and the U.S. is deeply intertwined, with Canada exporting three-quarters of its goods to the U.S., indicating the potential economic ramifications of escalating trade tensions [8]