地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 热点品种 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，沙特将 7 月阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲的官方售价下调 20 美分 /桶，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加拿大阿尔伯塔省 的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局， 美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，特朗普表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱，美方授权 美军家属可自愿撤离中东，缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模，伊朗防长表示如果核 谈判失败并与美国冲突，伊朗将打击该地区的美军基地。以色列开始袭击伊朗， 中东地缘风险急剧升温，有报道称伊朗高级议员表示与美国的会谈将不会举行。 美国石油钻井数量下降幅度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原 ...

Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have unexpectedly become a significant source of returns for U.S. traders during the volatility of the S&P 500 index caused by President Trump's trade war [1] - The Cboe volatility index (VIX) has been higher than the Cboe emerging markets ETF volatility index for 48 out of the past 54 trading days, indicating increased investor interest in emerging markets to mitigate risks [1] - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has risen by 14% year-to-date, marking the largest excess return relative to the S&P 500 since 2009 [1] Group 2 - Speculators are preparing for potential increased volatility in emerging markets as the 90-day "tariff pause" initiated by the Trump administration is set to expire [4] - The number of put options open contracts relative to call options for the emerging markets ETF is nearing its highest level since December of the previous year [4] - Market strategist Matt Maley anticipates a short-term pullback in emerging market stocks relative to the S&P 500 index [4] Group 3 - Positive developments in trade negotiations could boost the S&P 500 index, as significant progress has been reported in talks with China [7] - Investors are pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, hoping that Trump's tax cuts will drive corporate earnings and domestic economic growth [7] - The current upward momentum in the U.S. stock market may diminish the relative advantage of emerging markets, with the S&P 500 nearing historical highs [7] Group 4 - A weaker dollar may continue to benefit emerging markets, as their stock valuations remain cheaper compared to U.S. stocks [7] - Matt Maley suggests that emerging market stocks may be available at more attractive prices in late June [7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has become a stabilizing force for emerging market assets, with varying outcomes expected from trade negotiations across the 24 countries covered by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - On June 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.04% to 785.16 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.88% to 8819 yuan/kg [2]. - In the short - term, due to the warming of Middle - East geopolitics, uncertainties in tariffs and fees, better - than - expected data in the US in June, and the cooling of core PPI in May, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in August has increased, the US dollar index has fallen below 100 again, which boosts the rebound of gold prices. Gold prices are expected to maintain high - level range - bound in the short - term, and the medium - and long - term upward view remains unchanged. For silver, the repair of the gold - silver ratio is basically established, and the silver price is expected to return to the macro + fundamental logic, with a risk of further weakening in the short - term [2]. - In the medium - and long - term, the background of the trade war still exists, the US economy still faces downward risks, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With the intensification of great - power games and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold purchases continue, and the monetary attribute of gold is constantly strengthened. The medium - and long - term upward trend has not changed. The strategy is to continue to allocate more on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - On June 12, 2025, London gold spot was 3373.58 dollars/ounce, up 1.1% from June 11; London silver spot was 36.25 dollars/ounce, down 0.9%; COMEX gold was 3393.80 dollars/ounce, up 1.1%; COMEX silver was 36.38 dollars/ounce, down 1.0%. AU2508 was 785.16 yuan/gram, up 1.0%; AG2508 was 8819 yuan/kg, down 0.9%; AU (T + D) was 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.9%; AG (T + D) was 8798 yuan/kg, down 1.0% [2]. Spread/Ratio Tracking - On June 12, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.46 yuan/gram, up 10.5% from June 11; the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 21 yuan/kg, up 50.0%; the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.90 yuan/gram, down 26.7%; the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 582 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 89.03, up 1.9%; the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 93.30, up 2.1%; AU2512 - 2508 was 3.72 yuan/gram, down 1.1%; AG2512 - 2508 was 34 yuan/kg, down 12.8% [2]. Position Data - As of June 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 934.19 tons, down 0.18% from June 10; the silver ETF - SLV was 14729.07854 tons, up 0.27%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 246982 contracts, up 5.51%; the non - commercial short position was 59077 contracts, down 1.38%; the non - commercial net long position was 187905 contracts, up 7.88%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 81981 contracts, up 11.93%; the non - commercial short position was 21211 contracts, up 4.86%; the non - commercial net long position was 60770 contracts, up 14.63% [2]. Inventory Data - On June 12, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 17847.00 kg, up 0.17% from June 11; the SHFE silver inventory was 1226150.00 kg, down 0.30%. On June 11, the COMEX gold inventory was 37929466 troy ounces, with a 0.00% change from June 10; the COMEX silver inventory was 497946180 troy ounces, up 0.56% [2]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On June 12, 2025, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.18, down 0.02% from June 11. On June 11, the US dollar index was 98.65, down 0.41% from June 10; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.94%, down 1.75%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, down 1.34%; the VIX was 17.26, up 1.83%; the S&P 500 was 6022.24, down 0.27%; the NYMEX crude oil was 68.30 dollars/barrel, up 5.50% [2]. Economic Data - The US May PPI was up 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 2.4%. The US May core PPI was up 3.0% year - on - year, the lowest since August 2024, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1%. Month - on - month, the May PPI rose only 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%, and the core PPI also rose only 0.1%, with commodity prices (excluding food and energy) up 0.2% and service prices up 0.1% [2]. - The UK April GDP contracted 0.3% month - on - month, the first contraction in six months, worse than the expected 0.1% contraction, and the previous value was a 0.2% increase [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week ending June 7 was 248,000, rising to the highest level since the end of 2021, higher than the expected 242,000, and the previous value was 247,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the week ending June 3 was 1.956 million, higher than the expected 1.91 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.904 million to 1.902 million [2].

何立峰副总理强调"贸易战没有赢家"，并提出中美双方要"进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，不断 增进共识、减少误解、加强合作"。 作为发展阶段、经济制度不同的两个大国，中美双方在经贸合作中出现分歧和摩擦是正常的。然而，国 际贸易不可忽视的本质是互利共赢。在全球产业链分工日益细化的今天，世界经济体系高度相互嵌套， 一荣俱荣，这种基于市场选择的自然合作是全球化资源配置的必然结果。近年来，随着美方当局违背经 济规律，倒行逆施单边主义与保护主义，全球政治、经济、贸易局势呈现出显著地恶化趋势。这种将经 贸问题政治化、安全化的做法，不仅撕裂了全球供应链的完整脉络，更在根本上动摇了多边贸易体系的 根基。历史与现实反复印证，贸易战没有赢家，霸凌打压只会造成多败皆伤的困境。当保护主义阴云笼 罩全球经济之际，理性回归的呼声正逐渐汇聚成强大的力量——发展中国家联合捍卫公平贸易原则，跨 国资本用投资选择表达对开放市场的信心，美国国内工商界和农业州也持续发出反制关税的抗议。来自 各方的呼吁清晰表明，世界经济的复苏需要拆除人为藩篱，全球秩序的重构亟须重返合作轨道。 伦敦会议的成果是中美双方正视经贸互利共赢本质，尝试回归经济理性的重要探索。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. - The basis shows a premium for the spot price over the futures price, which is bullish. - Copper inventories decreased by 2600 tons to 116,850 tons on June 12, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 1613 tons to 107,404 tons last week, presenting a neutral situation. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish. - With the Fed slowing down interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, and increased uncertainty in US trade tariffs, copper prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamental analysis: The manufacturing industry is in a recovery trend, smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy is relaxed, resulting in a neutral situation [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 79,040 with a basis of 430, indicating a premium for the spot over the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: Copper inventory decreased on June 12, while SHFE inventory increased last week, a neutral situation [2]. - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, bullish [2]. - Main positions: Net short positions with an increase in shorts, bearish [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices will mainly fluctuate due to factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut slowdown, high - level inventory destocking, and US trade tariff uncertainty [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, with no clear indication of specific bullish or bearish factors [3]. Spot No specific data analysis provided, only the form of spot price, price change, and inventory information is shown [6]. Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory decreased by 2600 tons to 116,850 tons on June 12, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1613 tons to 107,404 tons last week [2]. Bonded Area Inventory Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].

Company Performance - Adobe reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $5.06 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus by $0.10, with revenues of $5.87 billion, surpassing expectations of $5.79 billion, marking an 11% increase year-over-year [4] - Digital Media segment saw an 11% gain in Q2, with Annualized Recurring Revenues (ARR) reaching $18.09 billion, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth [5] - RH (formerly Restoration Hardware) reported Q1 earnings of $0.40 per share, significantly beating the Zacks consensus estimate of -$0.09, although revenues were slightly below expectations at $814 million compared to the estimated $818 million [5] Market Context - The market has shown resilience against tariff threats, with major indexes closing in the green, including a +101 point gain for the Dow and a +0.38% increase for the S&P 500 [1] - Bond yields decreased, influenced by cooler-than-expected wholesale inflation data, with the 10-year yield at 4.36% and the 30-year yield down to 4.84% [2] - The ongoing trade war narrative has led to market fatigue, as the market appears to be less reactive to new tariff announcements after the "Liberation Day" tariffs were imposed [3] Strategic Adjustments - RH's CEO indicated that 52% of the company's upholstered furniture is now produced in the U.S., addressing tariff implications, with an anticipated negative revenue impact of around 6% due to tariffs [6] - RH expects to generate free cash flow between $250 million and $350 million, indicating a positive outlook despite tariff challenges [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures showed mixed trends on Thursday. The main contract EC2508 closed down 1.74%, while the far - month contracts rose between 1% - 3%. The announced price increase of shipping rates on the Asia - Europe route by major shipping companies provided slight support to the futures prices, but the negative impact of additional tariffs remained unimproved. - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rebounded by 369.99 points from last week, a 29.5% increase. - The uncertainty of the trade war persists, and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has cooled the demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line), leading to large fluctuations in futures prices. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. - The long - term improvement of the trade war remains to be observed. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: EC main contract closed at 1984.700, down 35.2; EC sub - main contract closed at 1380.5, up 8.2. The spreads of EC2508 - EC2510 and EC2508 - EC2512 decreased by 26.20 and 63.50 respectively. The EC contract basis increased by 16.80, and the main contract's open interest increased by 409 to 45012 hands [1]. - **Spot and Indexes**: SCFIS (European line) reached 1622.81, up 369.99; SCFIS (US West line) was 2185.08, up 466.94. SCFI (composite index) was 2240.35, up 167.64. CCFI (composite index) was 1154.98, up 37.37; CCFI (European line) was 1397.02, up 21.40. The Baltic Dry Index was 1738.00, down 58.00; the Panamax Freight Index was 1337.00, down 37.00. Container ship capacity was 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs), down 0.01 [1]. - **Charter Rates**: The average charter price of Panamax ships was 10588.00, up 507.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 22882.00, down 913.00 [1]. Industry News - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. Both sides had in - depth discussions, reached a principled agreement on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. The US side said the meeting achieved positive results and would work with China to implement the consensus [1]. - The latest US inflation data remained moderate. In May, CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 2.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, both lower than expected. After the CPI data was released, US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point [1]. Key Data to Watch - Germany's May CPI monthly rate final value on June 13th at 14:00. - France's May CPI monthly rate final value on June 13th at 14:45. - US June one - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value on June 13th at 22:00. - US June University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value on June 13th at 22:00 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and maintain a long - term upward trend. The silver - gold ratio has basically recovered before the counter - tariff, and there is a risk of further weakening in the short term. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate more on dips [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - On June 11, 2025, COMEX gold was at $3357.90 per ounce, London gold spot was at $3336.87 per ounce, London silver spot was at $36.57 per ounce, and COMEX silver was at $36.74 per ounce. Compared with June 10, they increased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.3%, and 0.4% respectively. AU2508 was at 777.54 yuan/gram, AG2508 was at 8902 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was at 774.41 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was at 8888 yuan/kilogram, with increases of 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [5] Spread/Ratio Data - On June 11, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 3.96 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.13 yuan/gram, and the gold and silver spreads and ratios had corresponding changes compared with June 10, with some spreads having significant percentage changes such as 9.3%, 9.4%, etc. [5] Position Data - As of June 10, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 246,982 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 59,077 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 81,981 contracts, etc., with corresponding percentage changes compared with June 9 [5] Inventory Data - On June 11, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 17,817 kilograms (unchanged from June 10), SHFE silver inventory was 1,229,816 kilograms, an increase of 3.02% compared with June 10. COMEX gold inventory was 37,929,466 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.44% compared with June 10, and COMEX silver inventory was 495,180,453 troy ounces, an increase of 0.17% [5] Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On June 11, 2025, the US dollar index was 99.05, an increase of 0.03% compared with June 10. The US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.18, a decrease of 0.03% compared with June 10. Other data such as US Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYMEX crude oil also had corresponding changes [5] Market News and Analysis - The US appellate court ruled that Trump's tariff measures can continue during the appeal process. The US and Mexico reached an agreement on reducing steel tariffs and restricting imports. The EU believes that trade negotiations with the US will extend beyond the July deadline. China and the US had in - depth and rational consultations on trade, and basically reached a framework for implementing the consensus of the leaders' calls and Geneva talks. US CPI data in June was lower than expected, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in August [5]

Group 1 - International oil prices continue to rise, with WTI crude reaching $69.29 per barrel after a 4.9% increase, marking the largest single-day gain since October of the previous year [1] - The rise in oil prices is attributed to escalating security risks in the Middle East, prompting the U.S. to order partial evacuation of personnel from its embassy in Baghdad [1] - Market speculation about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East has intensified following threats from Iran to attack U.S. military bases if nuclear negotiations fail [1] Group 2 - The current surge in oil prices breaks the narrow trading range observed over the past month, highlighting the market's sensitivity to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which accounts for one-third of global crude oil production [3] - Despite the recent price increase, oil prices are down approximately 4% year-to-date due to concerns over trade wars affecting demand and the potential return of Iranian oil to the market [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports indicate significant uncertainty in the oil market, forecasting a supply surplus of 800,000 barrels per day, the largest since 2025 predictions began, while also noting that U.S. crude production is unlikely to exceed last December's levels [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the current administration, particularly in relation to trade negotiations and internal political dynamics [1][3][21] - The term "TACO" is introduced, symbolizing the administration's tendency to backtrack on strong positions, particularly in trade matters [1][5][9] - The administration's approach to immigration enforcement is causing discontent among its base, potentially jeopardizing support from key demographics [3][4][6] Group 2 - Recent trade negotiations with Japan have highlighted internal conflicts among U.S. representatives, leading to ineffective discussions and a lack of coherent strategy [10][12][14] - The article suggests that the administration's internal strife and lack of clear direction may hinder its ability to secure favorable trade agreements [14][23] - The potential for leveraging U.S. debt as a financial tool in trade negotiations is mentioned, indicating a complex interplay of economic strategies [8][24] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the administration's fluctuating stance on trade and its implications for global economic relations [20][22][24] - It notes that the administration's focus on internal conflicts may detract from addressing external competitive pressures [21][22] - The conclusion suggests that the ongoing trade war could present opportunities for other economies to strengthen their positions [24][26]