Group 1 - The news regarding the reduction of tariffs between China and the US has led to significant market reactions, with the US dollar index surging to around 101.7 and gold dropping by $80 to a low near $3207 [4] - Despite the large drop in gold prices, it did not break the key support level of $3200, indicating that the bearish sentiment may not be strong enough to sustain a downward trend [4][5] - The domestic gold market has also experienced considerable volatility, with recommendations to avoid trading in certain contracts due to uncertainty, while focusing on potential support levels around $760 for domestic gold [6] Group 2 - The international silver market showed a decline but did not exhibit sustained bearish momentum, with a rebound observed after hitting a low of $31.8, maintaining support above $32 [6] - Domestic silver has been fluctuating within a small range, with a recent drop to $8180 but still closing above $8200, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend [7] - The oil market has shown a strong upward trend, with prices reaching a high of $63.5, and expectations for further increases towards $64.5 and $66, indicating a bullish outlook for the week [7][8]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold prices dropping sharply after a brief rally, indicating a bearish sentiment in the precious metals market [1][3] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3200, with potential further declines if this level is breached, suggesting a possible formation of a bearish pattern [3][5] - Silver is also showing increased volatility, influenced by gold's movements, and is expected to continue fluctuating due to its commodity characteristics and the impact of tariff negotiations [5][7] Group 2 - The US dollar index has recently broken above the 100 mark, supported by favorable tariff news, and is currently experiencing a pullback after reaching the 102 area [5][7] - US stock futures are showing potential for upward movement due to positive market stimuli, with key resistance levels identified at 6130-50 for the S&P futures [7][8] - Crude oil prices are expected to rise after a period of adjustment, with support levels noted at 60 and a bullish outlook if the price breaks above 65 [8]

新华财经上海5月12日电（葛佳明）5月12日，全球资本市场避险情绪降温，风险偏好获得提振，港股尾 盘急速拉升。进入欧洲交易时段，欧洲三大股指全线高开高走，美股三大股指期货大幅走强，国际油价 显著上涨，黄金重挫。 避险需求急速下降，黄金价格出现剧烈波动，日内下跌一度超过100美元，现货黄金日内跌幅扩大至 3%，最低触及3216美元/盎司；COMEX黄金主力期货合约跌幅超3%，最低触及3222美元／盎司，已经 跌破了5月1日的阶段前低，创4月14日以来新低。 进入5月，国际金价大幅震荡似乎正成为常态。在业内人士看来，考虑到地缘政治仍有不稳定因素、关 税风波仍存变数的情况下，近期金价动荡在情理之中，投资者尤其是期货投资者需要加强风险意识，普 通投资者应理性对待，避免盲目"追涨杀跌"，防范投资风险。 布伦特原油期货和美国WTI原油价格均延续上周反弹趋势，WTI原油一度涨近3%，最高触及63.41美元 ／桶，近5个交易日涨幅一度逼近10%，布伦特原油价格一度涨近4%，最高触及66.3美元／桶，近5个交 易日振幅达到10%。分析师表示，关税问题的缓和，一定程度上缓解了市场对于美国经济衰退的预期， 致使投资者预期原油需求或 ...

Group 1 - The easing of tariff issues and the reduction of geopolitical tensions are contributing to a decline in safe-haven demand for gold [1] - There is speculation on whether short positions in gold can regain momentum amid the weakening risk aversion sentiment [1]

中美经贸高层会谈 5 月 10 日至 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美 经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰当地时间 11 日晚在出席中 方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、 深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。避险情绪 减弱，欧美股市上涨，贵金属转为高位震荡略偏空的走势。 5 月议息会议之后，市场对美联储降息的预期再度走弱，鲍威 尔在讲话中明确提出通胀上行风险和经济下行风险，在 5 月议息会 议和鲍威尔讲话之后，市场对美联储降息的预期再度推迟，近期美 联储官员讲话，依然对降息偏谨慎，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示， 美国贸易政策正在增加经济下行风险，高不确定性下维持通胀预期 稳定至为关键。美联储巴尔金指出，并非所有企业都能通过涨价消 化关税成本。美联储博斯蒂克称，在不确定性增加之际调整利率并 非审慎之举，降息预期减弱，短期利空贵金属。 美国一季度 GDP 年化季环比初值录得-0.3%，低于市场预期的 0.3%，较上季度的 2.4%大幅回落，为 2022 年一季度以来首次转负。 美国 4 月份就业增长强劲，失业率保持稳定，这表明特朗普贸易政 策的不确定性尚未对招聘计划产生重大影响。美 ...

新华财经北京5月12日电（郭洲洋、吴郑思）国内商品期货市场5月12日涨多跌少，其中集运欧线主力合 约收涨16.00%；苯乙烯主力合约涨超4%；BR橡胶、对二甲苯、铁矿石、PTA主力合约涨超3%；SC原 油、短纤、烧碱、高硫燃油、多晶硅、棉花、原木、NR、瓶片、天然橡胶、沪镍主力合约涨超2%。下 跌品种方面，沪金主力合约跌超2%。 宏观情绪改善商品大面积回暖 集运指数强势涨停 宏观情绪转暖为12日当天商品市场带来积极影响，国内主要商品大面积收高，尤其是集运指数（欧线） 期货收盘强势封板涨停，以16%的涨幅领涨商品市场。虽然上周五和本周一公布的现货运价指数均环比 小幅下跌，但周末贸易局势方面的积极消息带来的利多仍占据主导，这使得集运市场多头情绪高涨。与 此同时，有业内消息称，达飞轮船等航司6月初在线报价有小幅提振，也为日内集运欧线市场的活跃表 现提供助力。不过，分析机构提示，即期运价市场上，部分航司揽货压力下调降5月中下旬运价，加上 地缘局势也存在缓和可能，集运欧线基本面仍整体偏空，这或给运价反弹带来压力。 除航运市场对贸易局势最新变化反映积极以外，能源化工等商品也表现活跃。截至12日收盘，原油、燃 料油均录得超 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to substantial progress in US-China trade talks, leading to a decrease in gold's safe-haven premium [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of May 12, the international spot gold price fell below $3,300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3,208 per ounce [2]. - The Shanghai gold futures main contract closed down 2% at 772 yuan per gram, hitting a near one-month low of 767 yuan per gram during trading [3]. - Gold prices have seen a significant drop, with international gold prices falling below $3,500, $3,400, and $3,300 within two weeks, prompting profit-taking by long traders [4]. Group 2: Gold ETF Trends - The total scale of seven gold ETFs targeting SGE gold 9999 reached approximately 1,522 billion yuan by the end of April, but decreased to 1,450 billion yuan due to falling gold prices [3][4]. - In April, gold ETFs experienced a rapid inflow of funds, with over 10 billion yuan in inflows for four consecutive weeks, totaling 498 billion yuan for the month [4]. - As of May 12, the total scale of these gold ETFs rebounded to 1,490 billion yuan, indicating some funds are entering the market to buy on dips [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by high volatility and divergence, with short-term price pressures expected [6]. - The global economic landscape, including trade tensions and inflation expectations, continues to influence gold prices, with a potential for further price corrections [6][8]. - Central banks globally continue to support gold demand, with a net purchase of 244 tons in the first quarter of 2025 [7].

本文来自：华尔街见闻，作者：李笑寅、鲍奕龙，原文标题：《中美会谈联合声明发布，美股期货涨逾2%，黄金跳水，离岸人民币暴涨400点， 巴基斯坦股市涨9%》，题图来自：AI生成 中美贸易谈判达成重要共识推动短期乐观情绪，美股期货涨幅扩大，美元和人民币同时走强，离岸人民币跳涨百点。避险情绪显著消退，十年期 美债和黄金遭重挫。 5月12日周一，商务部发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，美国将修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区 和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的 关税。 股市： 债市： 汇市： 离岸人民币兑美元一度涨超400点，报7.1988。 大宗商品： 【15:03】 商务部发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明后，现货黄金5分钟内下跌约20美元/盎司，报3255.62美元/盎司，日内跌超2%。 纳斯达克100指数期货涨幅扩大至3%。 印度NIFTY 50指数大涨近3%，巴基斯坦KSE-30指数大涨超9%触发熔断，此前双方达成停火协议。 日经225股指高开后持续震荡走低，截至发稿，涨0 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 避险情绪缓和，金价可能延续调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格冲高后再度回落，在上周二美国总统特朗 普宣布拟对海外制药产品征收新关税，加剧全球贸易紧张 局势，市场对美国新一轮关税计划感到忧虑，推动避险情 绪升温，支撑黄金再度冲高，但随后美国与英国达成贸易 协议，且中美经贸会谈将于周末进行，市场避险情绪缓和， 金价高位回落。 ⚫ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent US-China trade negotiations have reached significant consensus, leading to short-term optimism in the market, with US stock futures rising and both the US dollar and offshore RMB strengthening [1][2][5] - The offshore RMB appreciated nearly 200 points, indicating a positive market reaction to the trade talks [5] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose over 1% during the Asia-Pacific trading session, reflecting increased risk appetite among investors [2] Group 2 - There is a notable decline in risk aversion, as evidenced by a 3.6 basis point increase in the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bonds and a drop of over $40 in gold prices [6] - Market participants are awaiting the details of the joint statement expected on May 12, which will be crucial for sustaining the current optimism [1] - Analysts express caution, suggesting that while there is a tendency for risk-taking, confidence may remain fragile until specific details from the negotiations are disclosed [1]