1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The structural market in index futures continues and supports the market [1] - On July 21, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF increased by 0.68%, IH by 0.25%, IC by 0.99%, and IM by 0.89% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF decreased by 24,940 lots, IH by 19,875 lots, IC by 9,461 lots, and IM by 1,381 lots [2] - In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 2,025 lots, IH by 634 lots, while IC increased by 5,196 lots and IM by 15,851 lots [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1期指期现数据跟踪 - **Index Futures Data**: Presented the closing prices, price changes, basis, trading volumes (in billions), trading volumes, and position changes of various index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM on July 21, 2025 [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The total trading volume of the four major index futures decreased, and the position changes of different index futures varied [2] - **20 - Member Position Changes**: Showed the long - and short - position changes of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [5] 3.2重要驱动 - **LPR Quote**: The LPR quote in July remained stable. The 1 - year LPR was reported at 3%, and the 5 - year - plus variety was reported at 3.5% [6] - **Sino - US Leaders' Meeting**: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there was no information available regarding the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders in the next few months [6] - **US - EU Trade Tension**: The US Secretary of Commerce set August 1 as the "hard" deadline. If the EU fails to reach a new trade agreement by then, it will face at least a 30% tariff, and the EU is preparing a full - scale counterattack [6] - **Stock Market Performance**: The broader market opened higher and continued the upward trend in a volatile manner. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index followed the upward trend in the afternoon. A - share trading volume increased to 1.73 trillion yuan [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices have strengthened. Market risk aversion has increased before the new tariff deadline on August 1st, and the weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has provided upward momentum for gold. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled due to the rebound in US CPI. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of Trump's tariff threats being realized. Gold has long - term driving forces but is hesitant to rise at high prices, while silver is relatively strong due to the boost from industrial products. Gold and silver may continue their relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 779.32 and 783.66 respectively, with daily increases of 5.36 (0.69%) and 5.28 (0.68%). The current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9242.00 and 9290.00 respectively, with daily increases of 102.00 (1.12%) and 104.00 (1.13%) [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 53205 and 97403, and the trading volumes are 47780 and 43343 respectively. The positions of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 141275 and 210744, and the trading volumes are 102682 and 76697 respectively [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are - 8.40 and - 12.74, and those of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are - 119.00 and - 167.00 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 770.92 and 770.84 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.28 (- 0.17%) and - 1.24 (- 0.16%). The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3338.85, with a change of - 7.135 (- 0.21%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9123.00, with a change of 14.00 (0.15%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.14, with a change of 0.28 (0.75%) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506 and沪银2512 - 沪银2506 are 4.34 and 48 respectively. The current value of the gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 84.50, and the current values of the Shanghai - to - London gold and silver ratios are 7.18 and 7.44 respectively [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold are 28,872 kg and 37,143,884 respectively, with changes of 0 and an increase of 346,352.72 compared to the previous day. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver are 1,217,085 kg and 496,688,541 respectively, with changes of an increase of 4,296.00 kg and a decrease of 493426 compared to the previous day [2]. 3.4 Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with daily increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton compared to the previous day. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of an increase of 481 and a decrease of 1451 [2]. 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Japan's Political Situation**: In Japan's 27th Senate election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost its majority in the Senate. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to serve, while the leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party Noda Yoshihiko said he would consider a no - confidence motion against the cabinet if Ishiba remained in office [3]. - **US Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The Trump administration's "Great and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next ten years. US Treasury Secretary Bessent criticized the Fed's "panic propaganda" on tariffs, and the Trump administration is trying to influence market expectations through new Fed chair candidates [3]. - **Trade Issues**: The EU may hold a meeting this week to prepare for the scenario of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool." Trump's tariff negotiation stance has hardened as the August 1st deadline approaches. Trump has postponed the new trade tariff deadline, but there is a risk of the tariff threat being realized [3]. - **EU's New Policy**: The EU Commission is formulating a new bill requiring large enterprises and car rental companies to switch to electric vehicle procurement by 2030, which may affect about 60% of new car sales in the EU, covering a market size of about 6.4 million vehicles per year [3].

Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated today, with the main contract at 1025 cents. Due to good weather and a slightly bearish USDA report in July, CBOT soybeans declined weakly at the beginning of last week and tested the previous low of 1000 cents again technically. Subsequently, positive news emerged. The US reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes Indonesia's purchase of $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, stimulating the expectation of new - season US soybean exports. However, CBOT soybeans are still expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. The new - season US soybeans are growing well, with an unexpectedly high excellent - good rate of 70% in the latest week, 4% higher than the previous week and at a very high level in the past five years. Only 7% of the US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest is gradually strengthening. If China, the largest importer of US soybeans, still cannot purchase due to high tariffs, CBOT soybeans are expected to have no sustained improvement. [6] - Domestic soybean meal continued to be strong this week. Firstly, the risk preference in the commodity market has recovered, and the prices of most industrial products at the bottom have continued to rise, driving the bullish sentiment in the whole market. Secondly, the fundamental situation of soybean meal itself is solid. Although the current spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, considering that China has not started to book ships for new - season US soybeans in the fourth quarter, the current pressure is insignificant. The price of CBOT soybeans has recovered this week, the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the import cost has gradually risen. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy. The risk lies in whether the future Sino - US peace talks will bring good news, such as a mutual reduction of tariffs without an agreement for China to purchase additional US agricultural products. [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3080, the highest price was 3091, the lowest price was 3068, the closing price was 3087, with a rise of 17 and a rise rate of 0.55%. The trading volume was 292,691, the open interest was 1,155,465, and the open interest change was 8,587. For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the opening price was 3060, the highest price was 3070, the lowest price was 3046, the closing price was 3069, with a rise of 26 and a rise rate of 0.85%. The trading volume was 972,455, the open interest was 1,885,694, and the open interest change was - 21,481. For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3083, the opening price was 3098, the highest price was 3108, the lowest price was 3083, the closing price was 3105, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.71%. The trading volume was 150,810, the open interest was 632,481, and the open interest change was - 9,420. [6] - **External Market Situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, and CBOT soybeans were affected by weather, USDA report, trade agreements, and China's purchasing situation. [6] - **Domestic Market Situation**: Domestic soybean meal was strong due to market sentiment and its own fundamentals. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy, with risks related to Sino - US relations. [6] 2. Industry News - **CFTC Position Report**: As of the week ending July 15, for CBOT soybeans, the long positions increased by 4,268 lots to 186,780 lots, and the short positions increased by 27,042 lots to 171,486 lots; for CBOT soybean oil, the long positions increased by 5,345 lots to 135,739 lots, and the short positions increased by 382 lots to 71,614 lots; for CBOT soybean meal, the long positions increased by 13,201 lots to 128,060 lots, and the short positions increased by 7,342 lots to 207,802 lots; for ICE rapeseed, the long positions decreased by 15,049 lots to 133,601 lots, and the short positions increased by 3,344 lots to 33,399 lots. [7] - **Rapeseed Growth Data**: As of the week ending July 16, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 60.65%. As of the week ending July 15, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 64.4%, up from 63.7% the previous week. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages, and the fungicide spraying work was still in progress. [9] 3. Data Overview - Data includes various charts such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [15][17][14]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly declined by 0.04% to close at 44,323.07 points [1] - The Nasdaq index increased by 0.38% to 20,974.17 points, and the S&P 500 index rose by 0.14% to 6,305.60 points [1] Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Google A up 2.72%, Amazon up 1.43%, Meta up 1.23%, Apple up 0.62%, while Tesla fell by 0.35% and Nvidia dropped by 0.60% [3] - Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, sold 75,000 shares valued at approximately $12.94 million on July 18, following a total reduction of 1.35 million shares worth $215 million from June 20 to July 17 [3] Chinese Stocks - The China Golden Dragon Index decreased by 0.28% [4] - Notable performers included Huya, which surged over 16%, and Douyu, which rose by 6.23% [5] - NIO increased by 2.73%, Yum China by 1.82%, and Baidu by 1.13% [6] Oil and Gold Prices - Oil prices slightly declined, with WTI crude oil settling around $67 per barrel [9] - Gold prices rose by 1.42% to $3,397.48 per ounce, briefly surpassing the $3,400 mark during the day [12] Federal Reserve and Economic Policies - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July is nearly zero, with traders now estimating over a 50% chance of a cut in September [14] - Investors are closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech for clues on potential rate cuts [15] - The recent tax and spending bill signed by President Trump is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [17][18]

2025.07. 22 周一美股涨跌互现，投资者关注明星科技股财报表现，并寄希望于各方能达成贸易协议，以减轻特朗 普政府全球关税对经济造成的损害。 截至收盘，道指跌19.12点，跌幅为0.04%，报44323.07点，纳指涨78.52点，涨幅为0.38%，报 20974.17点， 盘中首次迎来21000点里程碑 ，标普500指数涨8.81点，涨幅为0.14%，报6305.60 点，收盘首次站上6300点。标普500指数和纳指均创收盘新高纪录。 明星科技股涨多跌少，谷歌涨2.7%，亚马逊涨1.4%，Meta Platforms涨1.2%，苹果涨0.6%，微软 平盘，特斯拉跌0.3%，英伟达跌0.6%。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数跌0.2%。拼多多涨2.4%，百度涨1.1%，网易涨0.9%，阿里巴巴平盘，京东 跌1.5%。 尽管美国总统特朗普的关税谈判最后期限8月1日不断临近，美股最近频频创下新高，因为投资者认 为关税对经济的影响可能不像以前担心的那么可怕。 在美国商务部长卢特尼克上周日表示对与欧盟达成贸易协议充满信心后，投资者预计贸易谈判将取得 一些进展。然而，欧盟外交官表示，随着与华盛顿达成突破性协议的希望逐渐渺茫 ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached all-time highs, driven by major stocks like Google A, while investors are focused on the earnings reports of the seven tech giants and trade negotiations [1] Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 19.12 points, or 0.04%, closing at 44,323.07 points; the Nasdaq rose by 78.52 points, or 0.38%, closing at 20,974.17 points; the S&P 500 increased by 8.81 points, or 0.14%, closing at 6,305.60 points [3] Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, the telecommunications sector rose by 1.9%, while the energy sector fell by 0.96%. The technology sector showed a modest increase of 0.13% [4] Popular Stock Performance - Major tech stocks had mixed results: Google A increased by 2.72%, Amazon by 1.43%, Meta by 1.23%, Apple by 0.62%, while Tesla decreased by 0.35% and Nvidia by 0.60% [5] Notable Stock Movements - Century Aluminum surged over 9%, and companies like Americas Silver and Pan American Silver rose nearly 5%. Verizon's stock increased by over 4% after raising its annual earnings guidance. Block's stock jumped over 7% as it is set to be included in the S&P 500 index [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. is eager to engage in business with China, while the "100-day visit to China" plan has failed, leading to increased tensions with tariffs being raised against China [1][3] - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for three consecutive months, with reductions of $173.2 billion, $50.8 billion, and $57.3 billion, aimed at protecting its wealth and adjusting its overseas asset structure [3] - The U.S. Commerce Department has decided to impose a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on Chinese graphite, which, when combined with existing tariffs, will result in a total tariff of 160%, significantly impacting the electric vehicle industry [7][11] Group 2 - Trump's recent actions, including the signing of a fentanyl control bill, reflect a dual strategy of testing China's response while attempting to maintain a friendly dialogue [5][12] - The imposition of high tariffs on graphite and the ongoing issues with rare earth materials indicate a broader strategy to undermine China's competitive advantage in critical materials for electric vehicles [7][12] - The potential for a trade war and rising inflation in the U.S. could lead to significant economic repercussions, particularly if the U.S. Treasury market faces instability [3][12]

Core Points - The S&P 500 index is currently up by 0.28%, the Dow Jones is up by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq is up by 0.49% [1] - White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated that President Trump continues to engage in trade agreement negotiations [1] - More tariff letters are expected to be seen before August 1 [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices have risen due to a weaker dollar and investor focus on trade developments ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline [1] - Lower-than-expected US inflation data did not lead to a re-evaluation of hawkish interest rate expectations, allowing gold to rebound from a major upward trend line [1] - With the Federal Reserve's easing policy, real yields are likely to continue declining, supporting an upward trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Today's gold trading saw a profit from a long position at 3356, closing at 3370 for a gain of 14 points, while a short position at 3375 resulted in a loss of 8 points, leading to a small overall profit [3] - The gold market showed slow upward movement during the day, with limited opportunities for pullbacks, leading to a chase of the upward trend [5] - The current strong resistance level for gold is between 3373-3375, with potential for testing the 3410 level as it has reached 3395 [5] Group 3 - A recommendation was made to go long near 3375, with a stop loss at 3365 and a target range of 3395-3405 [7]

加拿大央行调查：关税对企业前景的直接影响没有第一季度那么严重。 ...