Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. inflation** trends and the impact of **tariffs** on core inflation metrics. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Performance**: U.S. inflation has consistently underperformed expectations since February, with June's CPI growth at **2.67%**, slightly above the expected **2.6%**. However, core CPI increased by only **0.23%**, below the anticipated **0.3%** [2][3] - **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs have a **lagging effect** and insufficient transmission on core inflation. The impact of tariffs imposed in April was only reflected in June data, with limited significance [4][5] - **Trade Chain Profitability**: Tariffs have eroded profit margins across the trade chain, affecting foreign manufacturers, traders, and U.S. consumers. The effective tax rate between China and the U.S. rose from **5.87% to nearly 20%** from April 2018 to September 2019, but much of this was absorbed by PPI and currency depreciation [5][6] - **Trade Responses**: U.S. traders have responded to tariff pressures by increasing imports ahead of tariffs and substituting imports from high-tariff countries with those from countries like Vietnam and Mexico [6][7] Additional Important Content - **Retail Data Insights**: Daily retail data indicates that prices for imported goods from China are rising, while those from Mexico are declining, largely due to zero-tariff benefits under the USMCA agreement, which accounts for approximately **12.2% to 12.3%** of U.S. imports [7][8] - **Core CPI Components**: Within core CPI, core goods prices are rising, but prices for housing services and non-housing core services are declining. This indicates a supply-driven increase in PCE price index, while demand remains weak [3][10] - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts will depend on output and inflation gaps. Currently, the likelihood of rate cuts is low unless unemployment rises and inflation decreases significantly [12][13] - **Future Rate Cuts**: There is an expectation of at least three rate cuts in the upcoming year, particularly after the new Fed chair takes office in May 2026, contrary to market expectations of only two cuts [13] Conclusion - The U.S. inflation landscape is influenced by various factors, including tariffs, trade responses, and monetary policy decisions. The interplay between these elements will be crucial in shaping future economic conditions and investment opportunities.

美国商务部长卢特尼克：特朗普绝对会重新谈判《美墨加协定》（USMCA）。 小国将需支付10%基准关税。 有信心与欧洲达成贸易协议。 今早与欧洲贸易官员通话。 8月1日是关税的硬性截止日期。 ...

Group 1: Tariff Measures and Economic Impact - Tariff measures in the U.S. saw a high start but began to cool down after April 9, leading to market perceptions of TACO [2] - Actual tariff revenue growth from January to May was 6.5%, significantly lower than the theoretical increase of 14.5%, due to China's strategies to reduce high-tariff imports and ineffective implementation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada [3][4] - The economic impact of tariffs was lower than expected, with stable export volumes from China and low inflation in the U.S. despite tariffs, attributed to lower effective tax rates and weak demand in the automotive market [5] Group 2: Mid-Year Earnings Preview - The overall economic growth remains constrained, with a pre-announcement rate of 43.7% for mid-year earnings, lower than the past three years, indicating a weak profit growth of 1.0% for the entire A-share market [8] - Emerging technology sectors are showing signs of improvement, particularly in high-tech industries like equipment manufacturing, while traditional sectors are lagging [9][10] - Certain cyclical industries, such as rare metals and chemicals, are experiencing price increases, and some sectors are showing signs of recovery in earnings due to capacity reductions [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed globally in the first half of the year but has shown weakness since late June, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and currency fluctuations [13][14] - Current market heat in Hong Kong is at historical mid-levels, with technology and financial sectors showing lower heat compared to A-shares, while healthcare and consumer sectors are performing better [14] - Positive factors are accumulating for the Hong Kong market, suggesting a potential outperformance against A-shares in the second half of the year, driven by consumption policies and foreign capital inflows [15]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇、李欣越、赵宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国6月核心CPI弱于预期，美国或将提高对欧关税 发达市场多数上涨，美元指数延续反弹。 当周，标普500上涨0.6%，恒生指数上涨2.8%；10Y美债收益率 上行1.0bp至4.4%；美元指数上涨0.6%至98.46，离岸人民币贬值至7.1810；WTI原油下跌1.6%至67.3美元/ 桶，COMEX黄金下跌0.3%至3349.4美元/盎司。 美国或将提高对欧盟关税。 7月12日，特朗普宣布，若贸易谈判无法在8月1日前达成协议，将对欧盟、 墨西哥的进口关税提高至30%。7月15日，USTR正式宣布对巴西发起301调查，同日，美国宣布与印尼达 成贸易协定，印尼出口至美国商品统一适用19%关税。 美国6月核心CPI弱于预期，但6月零售表现较强。 6月美国核心CPI环比0.2%，弱于市场预期的0.3%，但 是商品端已显现出更强的关税传导效应，未来通胀趋势更重要。美国6月零售环比0.6%，较5月大幅回 升，从结构来看，环比改善最明显的是机动车、建材。 风险提示 风险提示：地缘政治冲突升级；美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariffs' impact on US inflation has partially emerged, with varying effects on different commodities, and further inflation effects will depend on the domestic production process [3][12] - The US still needs restrictive monetary policy to curb inflation from the demand side, and the relatively normal wage growth helps suppress inflation [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair alone may not change the policy direction and could damage monetary policy credibility. The Fed's rate - cut rhythm depends on tariffs' impact on inflation, and currently, a rate cut restart in October is expected [3][16] - If the Fed "changes leadership" soon, it may benefit the precious metals market and steepen the US Treasury yield curve [3][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Tariffs' impact on US inflation is partially reflected in terminal goods. Different products are affected differently, and the impact on inflation will further manifest with the domestic production process [3][12] - The US needs restrictive monetary policy to control inflation from the demand side. In June, the core commodity CPI expanded, and retail data showed resilience [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair may not change the overall FOMC attitude. The probability of Powell being replaced soon is low, and the Fed's rate - cut decision depends on tariff - inflation effects [3][16] - A list of high - frequency data's weekly环比 changes is provided, including data on food, other consumer goods, energy, metals, real estate, and shipping [19] High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as PPI, CPI, and export amounts [24][26][29] Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, employment data, sales data, financial conditions, and the implied interest - rate adjustment prospects of the Fed and ECB [84][86][91] Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - Charts present the seasonal trends of various high - frequency data, including production data, price indices, and real - estate - related data [95][99][109] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in these four cities [152][154]

Core Viewpoint - The recent imposition of a 17.09% tariff on Mexican tomatoes by the United States is expected to adversely affect not only Mexican farmers but also the broader agricultural trade relationship between the two countries, leading to increased prices for American consumers and potential economic contraction [1] Group 1: Impact on Mexican Farmers - The tariff will significantly harm the interests of Mexican tomato growers, leading to a notable decrease in export volumes to the United States [1] - The agricultural trade relationship between Mexico and the U.S. is being undermined, which could have long-term implications for bilateral trade stability [1] Group 2: Effects on U.S. Consumers - American consumers will face two main challenges: rising tomato prices and economic contraction, which may force them to cut back on spending [1] - The increase in prices for essential food items like tomatoes could contribute to further inflation in the U.S. economy [1] Group 3: Market Demand and Supply - Preliminary assessments indicate that U.S. demand for tomatoes is expected to decline by approximately 25% due to the tariff [1] - The overall supply and demand dynamics in the tomato market are projected to decrease simultaneously, affecting both countries [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant impact of tariffs on the economy, with a focus on the retail sector and credit market dynamics, suggesting a cautious approach to investments in these areas. Core Insights - Tariff revenues exceeded 26 billion USD in June, annualized at about 1% of GDP, marking a significant increase compared to three months prior, indicating that the effects of tariffs are becoming more pronounced [1][2] - The retail sector is particularly vulnerable due to preemptive inventory purchases made in anticipation of high tariffs, which have now been sold out, leading to higher costs for new orders expected in the third quarter of 2025 [3][4] - Core inflation data is rising, reflecting increased cost pressures across industries affected by tariffs, with the retail sector expected to feel the impact more acutely in the third quarter of 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The rapid increase in tariff rates, now reaching historical highs of 9%, with potential future increases to 15-20%, is a key factor in the delayed impact of tariffs on the market [2] - Companies had stocked up on inventory before tariffs took effect, but by the third quarter, these inventories will be depleted, leading to higher costs for new products [2] Retail Sector - The retail industry is especially affected as it faces higher costs for new goods after selling off pre-purchased inventory, with core inflation pressures compounding the situation [3] Credit Market - The credit market is advised to focus on quality, particularly in August and September, as the retail sector's challenges may lead to increased scrutiny on credit quality due to rising costs and inflation [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around macroeconomic insights, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve's independence, currency exchange rates, and the implications of tariffs on effective tax rates in the United States. Additionally, there are insights into the Taiwanese market and the Australian economy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve Independence**: - Undermining the Federal Reserve's independence is viewed negatively for the dollar, leading to a decrease in USDJPY and lower front-end US yields, while back-end yields are higher, indicating a steepening yield curve. The impact on equities remains uncertain, although the S&P initially fell [3][4][6]. 2. **Effective Tax Rate (ETR) Changes**: - Tariffs implemented to date have raised the US effective tax rate by 9 percentage points, with an expected further increase of approximately 8 percentage points by early 2027. This is attributed to proposed higher tariffs on a significant portion of US imports [4][10][12]. 3. **Taiwanese Market Dynamics**: - There is still USD 5 billion in dividends to be paid to foreign investors in July, indicating continued foreign investment interest. Despite the passing of TSMC dividends, there remains substantial buying interest in the market [20][21][25]. 4. **Australian Economic Outlook**: - Recent employment data showed an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, which is higher than expected. This suggests a weakening labor market, leading to expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBA in the upcoming meeting [28][31][32]. 5. **Dollar Index (DXY) Trends**: - The DXY is currently testing the 50-day moving average, which has previously capped the index. A close above this level could lead to a bullish outlook for the dollar until the summer holiday lull is over [6][7]. 6. **Market Sentiment and Future Projections**: - The market is sensitive to upcoming economic data releases and speeches from key figures, which could influence monetary policy decisions. There is a growing concern about the sustainability of the current economic recovery and the potential need for further easing [33][34]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for a deeper easing cycle in Australia is heightened by the RBA's cautious approach, which may lead to more significant rate cuts if economic conditions do not improve [28][32]. - The Japanese political landscape is also under scrutiny, with concerns about the ruling coalition's ability to maintain a majority in the upcoming elections, which could impact fiscal policy and market stability [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for various markets.

Group 1 - Trump's announcement to increase tariffs on almost all Japanese goods from 10% to 25% starting August 1 has significant implications for Japanese exporters [1][3] - Japanese automobile exports to the U.S. saw a dramatic decline of 26.7% in June, with companies like Toyota and Honda facing pressure to raise prices, resulting in a profit reduction of 30% [1][3] - The increase in tariffs could lead to a loss of $3,125 in profit per vehicle for Japanese automakers, potentially causing Japan's GDP to decline by 0.2%, which is substantial given the previous year's growth of only 0.1% [3][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that if Japanese companies attempt to pass on tariff costs to U.S. consumers, sales could drop by 8% to 26%, further squeezing profits by 6% to 59% [6] - The appreciation of the yen exacerbates the situation, with every 1 yen increase resulting in a loss of 50 billion yen for Toyota [6] - Japanese officials, including Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, have taken a firm stance against U.S. demands, emphasizing the importance of protecting key industries such as agriculture and automotive [6][9] Group 3 - Japan's reliance on the U.S. market is significant, with Japanese cars accounting for one-third of the U.S. automotive market, indicating that a withdrawal could lead to higher prices for American consumers [8][9] - Japan has potential countermeasures, including selling off U.S. Treasury bonds and accelerating free trade talks with China and South Korea [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on imported graphite from China, resulting in a total tariff rate of 160%, significantly impacting $347.1 million worth of imports in 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The anti-dumping duty is based on claims that Chinese graphite products, essential for electric vehicle batteries, are sold below fair market value in the U.S. [1]. - The trade organization representing U.S. active anode material manufacturers argues that this practice undermines the competitiveness of local suppliers [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Graphite is a critical material in the manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries, specifically as the main component of battery anodes [4]. - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for graphite, with approximately 180,000 tons imported last year, two-thirds of which came from China [4]. Group 3: Future Uncertainty - The preliminary ruling by the U.S. Department of Commerce is not final, with a conclusive decision expected by December 5, creating uncertainty for U.S. automakers [4]. - Anticipation of increased graphite prices due to tariffs poses challenges for automotive manufacturers, whose profit margins are already declining [4].