来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：富国基金） 目录 Part 1：A股市场分析 Part 2：港股市场分析 Part 3：下周宏观事件关注 Part 1 A股市场分析 国内方面，11月制造业PMI数据仍然在荣枯线之下，但边际改善、产需同步回暖，外需的贡献显著，内生动能不足之下，随着12月重磅会议渐近，稳增长 政策预期有所升温，跨年行情或徐徐展开。11月30日，国家统计局公布11月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.2%、前值49%，边际改善主因外需修复；非制造业 PMI为49.5%、前值50.1%，主因假期效应消退等影响下服务业季节性回调；综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，前值50.0%，在年内首次进入荣枯平衡线以下。具 体来看，制造业PMI在低基数下呈现"弱改善"特征，结构上生产指数表现弱于新订单，10月末中美经贸磋商达成主要成果共识，带动我国外贸环境有所改 善，11月份，新出口订单指数为47.6%，边际回升1.7个百分点，创下半年以来的最大涨幅。向后看，外部的扰动影响消散后，价格低位运行是经济的薄弱 环节，反映内需有待进一步提振，叠加明年作为"十五五"开局之年，稳增长政策"适时加力"的必要性有所提升。伴随着12月政治 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese stock market is expected to enter a cross-year offensive after a prolonged period of sideways movement, with a favorable window from December to February for policy, liquidity, and fundamentals to resonate positively, leading to a potential rise in indices [3][4][44] - Recent market stabilization and rebound, particularly with a rise in brokerage and insurance stocks, have activated market sentiment, indicating a shift towards a more optimistic outlook [4][45] - Anticipated macroeconomic policies are expected to become more proactive, with expectations of expanded fiscal deficits and supportive measures for economic development as the 2026 economic work conference approaches [4][45] Group 2 - The demand for asset management in China is projected to surge as traditional fixed asset investments decline and high-yield, risk-free financial assets diminish, marking 2026 as a pivotal year for transitioning from fixed income to fixed income plus [5][46] - The upcoming peak year for three-year time deposits in 2026, with yields significantly lower than in 2023, indicates a strong need for capital reallocation and diversification [5][46] - The expected influx of insurance capital into the market, driven by regulatory changes, could reach trillions, further opening up investment opportunities [5][46] Group 3 - The capital market is entering a new historical phase, acting as a crucial link between social and economic development, with a shift towards knowledge-intensive and capital-intensive industries [6][47] - The market capitalization structure reflects this change, with manufacturing, TMT, and financial sectors leading, while real estate's influence diminishes [6][47] - The reduction of uncertainties in economic development and the anticipated 10.6% growth in non-financial A-share earnings in 2026 highlight the market's potential for growth [6][47] Group 4 - The stock market is expected to see a resonance of policy, liquidity, and fundamentals from December to February, with a focus on technology, finance, and consumer sectors [7][48] - Key recommendations include technology growth driven by advancements in AI and computing infrastructure, as well as opportunities in the financial sector due to capital market reforms [7][48] - Consumer stocks are also highlighted for their potential recovery, particularly in food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism sectors, as macroeconomic risks decrease [7][48]

Group 1 - The new stock and newly listed sector has returned to a volatile tug-of-war, suggesting a need for patience and flexibility during the adjustment phase [1][11] - The average increase of newly listed stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets since 2024 is approximately -0.6%, with about 44.2% of new stocks showing positive returns [1][25] - The recent surge in the market capitalization of newly listed stocks, reaching over 100 billion, has attracted new funds but may also divert attention from other new stocks [2][11] Group 2 - The current secondary cycle indicators for the new stock sector are still slowly converging, with local active directions frequently switching and lacking a consensus on main lines [2][11] - The technology sector, particularly in areas like AI and robotics, remains a focal point for long-term capital, with an emphasis on identifying new hotspots within these themes [3][11] - The upcoming new stocks include Baiao Saitu and others, with a focus on companies that are either unprofitable or just becoming profitable [4][31] Group 3 - Last week, two new stocks were listed, both from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which are unprofitable at the time of listing [4][20] - The average first-day increase for newly listed stocks last week was approximately 350%, indicating a significant recovery in trading sentiment compared to previous weeks [4][23] - The average first-day closing price-to-earnings ratio for newly listed stocks in December has risen to 102.8, up from 63.1 in the previous month [14][15] Group 4 - The report suggests monitoring specific stocks that have shown resilience and potential for growth, including Han Shuo Technology and Hongjing Optoelectronics, among others [39] - For mid-term investments, stocks like Na Rui Radar and Jun Ding Da are recommended for potential investment opportunities [39]

Group 1 - The first batch of eight actively managed theme funds on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is set to enter its second open period, with an average cumulative return of nearly 100% over the past two years, outperforming major indices such as the ChiNext 50 and the BSE 50 by 50% [3][6][8] - As of December 5, 2025, the average cumulative return of these eight theme funds since inception is 62.31%, with some funds achieving returns exceeding 100%, the highest being 138% [3][6][7] - The total market value of publicly offered funds' heavy holdings in BSE stocks has shown a rising trend, surpassing 10 billion yuan in Q3 2025, indicating a more diversified investment approach [3][8] Group 2 - The BSE market has seen the issuance of 33 BSE 50 index funds, with a total scale of 13.3 billion yuan as of December 5, 2025, reflecting a steady growth in passive index fund offerings [10][11] - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of BSE A-shares remains at 44X, with daily trading volume averaging 13.9 billion yuan, indicating a stable market environment [20][23] - The BSE 50 index has reported a weekly increase of 1.49%, closing at 1,408.34 points, while the overall sentiment in the A-share market remains cautious amid upcoming significant meetings [17][25] Group 3 - The BSE has witnessed a total of 47 companies listed from January 1, 2024, to December 5, 2025, with one new company, Jingchuang Electric, listed in the week of December 1, 2025 [26][27] - The average issuance PE ratio for newly listed companies in 2024 is 13.79X, with an average first-day price fluctuation of 288% [12][13]

2025 年 12 月 06 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 如果春季躁动提前，哪些方向值得关注？ 最近一年走势 相关报告 《流动性周报 12 月第 1 期：ETF 资金净流出，宏 观流动性边际收敛*赵阳》——2025-12-01 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 《流动性周报 11 月第 1 期：基金发行端回暖，杠 杆资金有所放缓*赵阳》——2025-11-24 阳》——2025-11-23 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 本篇报告主要讨论：1、每年 2 月是常规春季躁动区间，牛市年份是否会 提前？2、从市场环境上看，本轮的跨年春季行情有没有可能提前？3、 如果春季躁动提前，如何布局？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1、从历史的跨年行情上看，整体胜率最高的是 2 月份，即"春季躁 动"行情的常规时间区间。但如果去看过去几轮牛市中继的年份， 我们发现"春季躁动"行情往往会提前。 ...

Group 1: Strategic Overview - China is transitioning from a global rule adapter to a co-builder and responsible stakeholder in international governance[3] - The 14th Five-Year Plan (14th FYP) focused on economic security, while the 15th Five-Year Plan (15th FYP) emphasizes "development and security" across all sectors[3] - The 15th FYP identifies emerging industries as "pillar industries," focusing on new energy and new materials, with a core strategy of cluster development and large-scale application[3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The 15th FYP highlights ten key investment areas: 1) Artificial Intelligence, 2) Robotics, 3) Aerospace, 4) Drones/Low-altitude Economy, 5) Strategic Resource Metals, 6) Shipping, 7) Controlled Nuclear Fusion, 8) Energy Storage, 9) Brain-Machine Interfaces, 10) Innovative Pharmaceuticals[3] - The Chinese robotics industry is transitioning from product definition to commercialization, with AI expected to empower various sectors by 2026[3] - The aerospace industry is a key focus, with the establishment of a new space administration and a three-year action plan for commercial aerospace development[3] Group 3: Economic and Security Considerations - The 15th FYP emphasizes the strategic importance of national defense and security, with a focus on political security as a priority[3] - The plan includes new initiatives for the development and reserve of strategic mineral resources, enhancing the national security framework[3] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and slower-than-expected industry capacity adjustments, influenced by international geopolitical changes[3]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Global Investment Conference held on December 5, 2025, attracted over 50 Fortune 500 companies and other enterprises, showcasing Nanshan's development environment and entrepreneurial ecosystem [3][5] - Nanshan is positioning itself as a hub for innovation and investment, emphasizing its supportive business environment and strategic focus on emerging industries [5][12] Group 1: Event Overview - The event served as a platform for global enterprises to explore investment opportunities in Nanshan, highlighting the area's commitment to innovation and collaboration [3][5] - Participants visited key sites such as Nanshan Smart City and Honghualing Base, which exemplify the region's industrial development [5][10] Group 2: Infrastructure and Development - Nanshan Smart City is designed to foster innovation in information technology, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine, featuring a unique spatial ecosystem [8] - Honghualing Base, covering 118,000 square meters with a total construction area of 992,000 square meters, provides high-quality development spaces for enterprises [10] Group 3: Policy and Support - Nanshan has established a comprehensive policy support system that integrates funding, talent, space, and services to assist enterprises throughout their lifecycle [12] - Recent initiatives include the "Six Coupons" and "Six Ones" policies, which target various stages of business development and talent acquisition [12] Group 4: Future Prospects - Nanshan is focusing on strategic emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and robotics, aiming to enhance its competitive edge and attract global talent [12] - The district has successfully introduced 378 key projects with a total investment exceeding 150 billion yuan, indicating a steady increase in investment scale compared to the previous year [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of timely and relevant research reports to identify investment opportunities and avoid missing out on market trends [1] - The article highlights that the penetration rate of L2++ autonomous driving technology has reached 25%, with a 100% growth in NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) vehicle models, indicating a significant market shift [1] - It mentions that institutions are focusing on three key companies in the core segments of the autonomous driving and robotics industry, which are expected to benefit from both performance and valuation boosts [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the recovery of industrial products in Europe and the U.S., driven by three factors: interest rate cuts, infrastructure investments, and supply chain reshoring [1] - It predicts that the demand for high-end machinery in the U.S. could exceed expectations by 2026, suggesting a strong market outlook [1] - Institutions are optimistic about a leading domestic high-end machinery company replicating the recovery success seen in the U.S. stock market [1]

Group 1 - The recent phase of consolidation in the artificial intelligence sector has sparked renewed discussions about whether AI has formed a bubble [1][7] - Breakthroughs in Chinese large models, represented by DeepSeek, Kimi, and Tongyi Qianwen, are significantly influencing global capital allocation towards Chinese tech assets [1][7] - DeepSeek has effectively served as a "global advertisement" for Chinese assets, enhancing attention and impacting stock performance and market expectations for domestic internet giants [1][7] Group 2 - Valuation improvement is only one aspect; the focus should also be on substantial changes in the fundamentals [2][8] - Overseas tech giants have achieved considerable revenue growth through AI, and if Chinese companies can demonstrate similar sustainable revenue growth, it could lead to fundamental improvements beyond mere valuation recovery [2][8] - The synergy between valuation enhancement and fundamental improvement will significantly boost market confidence [2][8] Group 3 - A notable trend in AI this year is the leap in multimodal content generation capabilities, which has visibly transformed industries like film and content creation [2][8] - The integration of multimodal capabilities with hardware will create new opportunities, such as AI glasses, which are expected to see significant improvements in user experience as technology advances [3][9] - The commercial viability of intelligent driving is progressing rapidly, with both domestic and international companies enhancing their autonomous driving solutions [3][9] Group 4 - Future investment opportunities are diverse and multifaceted, including expanding code generation scenarios, content creation driven by multimodal capabilities, and hardware integration [4][10] - Intelligent driving is gradually being realized, and the robotics sector is anticipated to meet higher market expectations in the coming year [4][10]

Core Insights - The 2025 Shenzhen Global Investment Conference resulted in over 340 projects being signed, with a total investment exceeding 770 billion yuan [1] - Nanshan District introduced 378 key projects this year, with a total intended investment surpassing 150 billion yuan, showcasing strong industrial clustering effects [5] Group 1: Major Projects and Investments - Nanshan District signed 34 high-quality projects at the conference, with an intended investment exceeding 100 billion yuan [1] - China Electronics, a Fortune 500 state-owned enterprise, is establishing a Spring Research Institute project in Nanshan, focusing on integrated circuits and advanced computing [3] - Hilton Group is opening its first Waldorf Astoria hotel in Guangdong at the Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base, enhancing the international service level in Nanshan [3] - Boson Quantum, a top-tier team from Stanford and Tsinghua, is setting up a quantum computing equipment manufacturing center in Nanshan, marking a significant step in China's engineering production phase for quantum computers [3] - Yahua Electronics, a leader in smart hospital interaction systems, is building an innovative demonstration base for medical and elderly care technology in South China [3] Group 2: Economic Performance and Policies - Nanshan District has maintained a GDP of 950 billion yuan, leading the province for 12 consecutive years [4] - The district has implemented a precise industrial policy matrix, including support for innovation and entrepreneurship through various initiatives [4] - Nanshan has attracted 26,700 foreign-funded enterprises, with nearly 40% of the world's Fortune 500 foreign-invested companies located there [5] - The district aims to continue leading with technological innovation, upgrading its industrial ecosystem, and optimizing service levels [5]