提醒：北京时间20:15，将公布欧洲央行利率决议（含主要再融资利率、存款便利利率、以及边际贷款 利率）。 ...

特朗普发帖称，由于鲍威尔拒绝降低利率，住房市场出现了滞后。家庭因为利率太高而受到伤害，甚至我们国 家本身也因此不得不支付比应有水平更高的利率。我们的利率本应比现在低三个百分点，这样一来，每年就能 为整个国家节省1万亿美元。鲍威尔这个固执的家伙就是不明白，从来没有，也永远不会明白。理事会应该采 取行动，但他们没有勇气这么做！ 行情回顾： 国际黄金周三（7月23日）冲回落大幅收跌，开盘价3426.49美元/盎司，最高价3438.88美元/盎司，最低价 3398.11美元/盎司，收盘价3398.16美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国6月成屋销售总数年化录得393万户，低于市场预期400万户，前值为403万户。 美国房产经纪协会NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun表示，"抵押贷款利率高企导致房屋销售仍停留在周期性低 点。如果平均抵押贷款利率下降到6%，我们的情景分析表明，将有额外的16万租房者成为首次购房者，现有 房主的销售活动也会增加。" 美国财长贝森特：今年可能会出现1到2次降息。几乎每周都与美联储主席鲍威尔共进早餐。在美联储主席提名 问题上，我们不急于求成。特朗普已经说了，他不会解雇鲍威尔。 贸易局势： 据了解 ...

Group 1 - Tesla is scheduled to release its earnings report after the US stock market closes on July 24, 2025 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe will deliver a speech at 11:05 AM [1] - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 8:15 PM [1] Group 2 - Various PMI data will be released, including Germany's manufacturing PMI at 3:30 PM and the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI at 4:00 PM [1][1] - The UK will also release its manufacturing and services PMI data at 4:30 PM [1] - The US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 at 8:30 PM [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the silver market, with silver prices experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][2][3] - As of July 22, 2025, the silver ETF holdings increased to 15,158.37 tons, up by 152.58 tons from the previous day, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [2] - The price of silver closed at $39.29 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of $0.37 or 0.94%, with intraday highs reaching $39.32 and lows at $38.69 [1][4] Group 2 - Economic analysts express concerns regarding U.S. President Trump's tariff threats, which could significantly impact the Eurozone economy, leading to uncertainty in the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance regarding interest rates until more data on inflation and labor market conditions are available, with inflation potentially rising towards 3% [3] - The silver market showed a strong upward movement after initially declining, indicating potential bullish trends for the upcoming trading sessions [4]

潘森宏观：特朗普关税威胁令欧洲央行利率决议陷入迷雾 金十数据7月22日讯，潘森宏观经济学家Claus Vistesen指出，美国总统特朗普的关税威胁难以辨别是真 实意图还是谈判筹码，这给欧洲央行的利率决议蒙上阴影。该行管委会本周料将维持基准利率在2.00% 不变。Vistesen表示，部分委员可能重点关注特朗普威胁对欧洲进口商品加征的30%关税——此举将重 创欧元区经济。他在致投资者的报告中写道，"但政策制定者面临的困境在于，他们无法确定特朗普是 否真打算实施此类关税，更不用说是否长期维持此关税。"这使得欧洲央行本周或将按兵不动，并转而 关注9月会议，届时欧盟和美国的贸易关系可能会更加明朗。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly decided to maintain the interest rate at 3.85%, contrary to market expectations of a reduction to 3.60% [1][2] Group 1: RBA Decision and Economic Indicators - The RBA stated it needs more time to assess inflation data before making any changes to the interest rate [1] - The RBA is waiting for more information to confirm that the inflation rate will sustainably reach 2.5% [1] - Australia's inflation rate in May was reported at 2.1%, the lowest level since October 2024, while the first quarter inflation rate was 2.4%, maintaining a four-year low [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the RBA's decision, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell by 0.24%, while the Australian dollar (AUD) rose by over 1% due to the unexpected decision [1] - The AUD/USD exchange rate has been forming a downward channel since early July, indicating significant resistance at the upper boundary of this channel [1] - There is a possibility for the AUD/USD to retrace towards the middle of the downward channel, suggesting that the market's initial reaction to the RBA's decision may have been hasty [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) experienced a sudden drop against the US dollar (USD) following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to maintain the cash rate at 3.85%, contrary to market expectations of a 25 basis point cut [1][2] Group 1: RBA's Decision and Economic Context - The RBA's decision to keep the cash rate unchanged was unexpected, as most economists anticipated a rate cut [1] - RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated that the effects of previous rate cuts have not yet fully materialized, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that the RBA's decision was not aligned with the expectations of millions of Australians or the market [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Despite the RBA's stance, the market is pricing in an 87% probability of a rate cut in August, indicating a significant divergence between market expectations and the RBA's position [2] - The AUD/USD exchange rate is currently trading around 0.6510, with technical analysis suggesting a potential recovery in bullish sentiment [2] - The AUD/USD may test key resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.6533, with further gains potentially leading to a test of the eight-month high of 0.6590 [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Price Levels - The AUD/USD is positioned to test the lower boundary of its ascending channel near 0.6500, with a critical support level at the 50-day EMA of 0.6472 [3] - A break below this support could weaken medium-term price momentum, allowing the currency pair to approach a two-month low of 0.6372 [3]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations after six consecutive meetings of rate cuts [1] - CPI inflation rate is expected to rise to the upper end of the monetary policy committee's target range of 1% to 3% by mid-2025, with overall inflation projected to stabilize around 2% by early 2026 [1] - If mid-term inflation pressures continue to ease as anticipated, further reductions in the official cash rate are expected [1] Group 2 - Economic outlook remains highly uncertain, with increasing global policy uncertainty and anticipated tariffs likely to dampen global economic growth, potentially slowing New Zealand's economic recovery and alleviating inflation pressures [1] - Following the interest rate decision announcement, the NZD/USD experienced a short-term fluctuation of nearly 20 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to maintain its current interest rate, with a cautious approach towards future rate cuts, leaving the possibility of easing for later consideration [1] Group 1: Institutional Predictions - Westpac anticipates that the RBNZ will keep interest rates unchanged and maintain a dovish stance, while remaining silent on the timing of any future actions [1] - ANZ forecasts that the RBNZ will hold rates steady, expecting a pause in rate cuts in October, followed by potential cuts in November and early next year [1] - A Reuters survey indicates that the RBNZ is likely to keep rates unchanged, with 16 out of 22 economists predicting a reduction to 3% in the third quarter [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - New Zealand Bank believes the RBNZ will maintain its current rate, as it is in a comfortable position, and market pricing will be a key factor in its decision-making [1] - ASB Bank suggests that the RBNZ will keep rates steady due to rising inflation pressures, emphasizing the need for assurance that short-term inflation will not elevate inflation expectations [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Nomura Securities estimates a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July, and if this occurs, the RBNZ is expected to signal a hawkish shift indicating a wait-and-see approach [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The focus for July 9, 2025, includes various economic data releases and events, particularly in the U.S. and New Zealand [2] - Key Point 2: The U.S. will report API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4, which is crucial for understanding oil supply dynamics [2] - Key Point 3: China's June CPI year-on-year data will be released, providing insights into inflation trends in the region [2] - Key Point 4: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision, which could impact monetary policy outlook [2] - Key Point 5: The U.S. will also release wholesale sales month-on-month data for May, which is important for gauging consumer demand [2] - Key Point 6: EIA crude oil inventory data will be published, including specific figures for Cushing and strategic petroleum reserves, which are vital for market analysis [2] - Key Point 7: The U.S. will conduct a 10-year Treasury auction, with results including the bid-to-cover ratio and yield, influencing bond market sentiment [2] - Key Point 8: The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its monetary policy meeting, which may provide insights into future interest rate decisions [2]