唐纳德·特朗普计划罕见地访问美联储，这一决定引发了人们的广泛关注。这将是美国历史上第四次有总统亲自踏足美联储的大门，而且特朗普的此行背景 尤为特别。近年来，特朗普与美联储及其主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之间的摩擦逐渐升级，特朗普对鲍威尔的领导能力以及美联储在华盛顿特区总部的开支问题提 出了越来越多的批评。此时，特朗普的访问似乎是对这一系列问题的回应，背后潜藏着对美联储独立性的一些政治压力。 通常，历史上的总统访问美联储常常被视为对美联储及其独立性的一种尊重。以往的访问具有象征意义，标志着总统对该机构的信任与支持。例如，乔治· 布什曾在2006年2月6日访问美联储，出席了他提名的本·伯南克担任美联储第14任主席的宣誓仪式。布什在该场合强调了美联储在美国经济体系中的独立 性，指出美联储在制定货币政策、监督银行体系以及维护支付系统方面具有不可动摇的独立地位。他曾公开表示："美联储的决策直接影响每一个美国人的 生活和生计，它是全球金融体系稳定性的重要象征。"布什的言辞彰显了他对美联储独立性和决策自由的坚定支持。 而在布什之前，最接近的总统访问美联储的例子发生在1975年，当时杰拉尔德·福特出席了美联储理事会成员菲利普·杰克逊的 ...

近期，美联储的翻修工程引发了广泛的关注，甚至成为了美国金融界和媒体讨论的焦点。这个位于华盛 顿的历史性建筑，原本只是一项普通的维修任务，但由于翻修工程的巨额投资与工程进度延迟，公众的 视线逐渐聚焦到了美联储的运营与管理上。 特朗普的突然访问使得美联储翻修工程成为了一个更加复杂的议题。这项原本看似与经济无关的建筑改 造工程，反而在当前的政治经济背景下，成为了特朗普表达对美联储政策不满的一个"平台"。翻修工程 的背后，不仅仅是硬件上的升级，更多的可能是对于美联储长期以来"内部管理"的一种隐性批评。 事实上，美联储的建筑翻修工程并非一项简单的修缮工作。考虑到美联储在全球金融体系中的重要地 位，这一工程无论是财政支出还是施工过程，都引发了公众的关注。特朗普对此的关注无疑加剧了这一 话题的热度。分析人士指出，这一翻修工程的背后，或许反映出美联储在透明度和管理效率方面的某些 不足，而这些问题恰恰是特朗普所反复批评的对象。 美联储作为美国的中央银行，其职能不仅仅是制定和实施货币政策，还肩负着调控国家经济和金融稳定 的重要责任。在如此关键的时刻，特朗普的访问无疑增加了政治和经济的不确定性，而他对于利率的表 态，也成为了金融市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows a mixed picture with manufacturing in contraction and inflation pressure rising, while the EU and the US are in trade negotiations and the ECB maintains interest rates. Domestically, the stock and commodity markets are positive, the bond market is under pressure, and various commodities show different trends affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [2][3] - The prices of precious metals are in回调 due to the expected easing of trade tensions; copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile; aluminum prices are likely to oscillate; alumina prices will stay in a short - term oscillation; zinc prices will adjust at a high level; lead prices will move horizontally; tin prices will oscillate at a high level; industrial silicon prices will be strongly oscillating; lithium carbonate prices will have a wide - range oscillation; nickel prices may oscillate strongly; crude oil prices will have their center of gravity lifted; steel prices will oscillate; iron ore prices will oscillate; and the prices of bean and rapeseed meal will have a wide - range oscillation, while palm oil prices may oscillate strongly [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI is 49.5 (in contraction), the service PMI is 55.2 (a new high for the year), inflation pressure rises, and business confidence drops. The EU and the US are close to a trade deal, but the EU has approved a 930 - billion - euro anti - tariff measure on US products. The ECB maintains interest rates, and the market's expectation of further rate cuts weakens [2] - Domestic: The A - share market breaks through 3600 points, with a trading volume of about 1.9 trillion yuan. The bond market is under pressure, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond rates rise to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively [3] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fall 0.77% to $3371.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce. The expected easing of global trade tensions weakens the demand for hedging, putting pressure on precious metals [4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper slightly falls. The US manufacturing contraction and the approaching tariff deadline make the overseas capital market cautious. Freeport's second - quarter copper production is 43.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile [6][7] Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closes at 20760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41%. The increase in the US dollar index and the weak US manufacturing PMI increase the pressure on aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreases. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closes at 3355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81%. The low - level warehouse receipt inventory provides support for alumina prices, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc has an intraday volatile and strong trend. The decrease in the position of an LME seat, the slight increase in LME inventory, and the slight discount of LME0 - 3 spot ease the squeeze - out concern. Zinc prices are expected to adjust at a high level [11][12] Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead moves horizontally. The high inventory pressure is not relieved, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to move horizontally in the short term, and attention should be paid to consumption variables [13][14] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillates at a high level. The decrease in the position of an LME seat eases the squeeze - out concern, but the rainy season in Southeast Asia may affect the transportation of tin ore in Myanmar. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon is strongly oscillating. The supply side is in a passive contraction state, and the demand side shows different trends. Supported by policies, the prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but the risk of high - level decline should be guarded against [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate runs strongly, and the spot price slightly rises. The market is affected by various news, and the price amplitude increases. The spot market is cold, and lithium prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [18][19] Nickel - Nickel prices oscillate weakly. The supply of nickel ore is becoming more abundant, and the cost pressure of nickel iron still exists. The introduction of the price draft may make nickel prices oscillate strongly [20][21] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices oscillate. The short - term geopolitical risk cools down, the EIA crude oil inventory decreases more than expected, and the macro - sentiment is strengthening, pushing up the center of gravity of crude oil prices [22][23] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. Multiple departments are promoting anti - involution competition rectification. The supply and demand of steel are in a weak balance. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The supply of iron ore is sufficient, and the cost increase due to the rise of coke prices suppresses the bargaining space of iron ore. The demand remains resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [25] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal fall. The water - heat conditions in the US soybean - producing areas are good, and the export sales of new - crop soybeans are slow. Affected by the protein - reduction policy, the long - position funds reduce their positions, and the prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [26][27] Palm Oil - Palm oil prices may oscillate strongly. The production of Malaysian palm oil is in an increasing cycle, and the potential demand from countries like India provides support. The market expects future supply to tighten [28][29]

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1170.01 tons on July 24, an increase of 4 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at $3371.30 per ounce on July 24, down 0.77%, with an intraday high of $3401.10 and a low of $3355.20 [1][2] Group 2 - Trump and Powell appeared at the Federal Reserve's construction site, leading to a public dispute over renovation costs, which Trump claimed increased from $2.5 billion to $3.1 billion [2] - Powell countered Trump's claims by clarifying that the cost increase included expenses for a third building already renovated in 2021 [2] - The core issue revolves around interest rate policy, with Trump pressuring the Fed to lower rates to reduce government borrowing costs, while Powell emphasized maintaining independence and only considering rate cuts if inflation is controlled [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A-shares rose strongly with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65% at 3605.73 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.5%. Multiple sectors saw gains, with securities, energy metals, and coal industries leading the increase [1]. - Hong Kong stocks hit a new high with low intraday selling pressure. The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.51% at 25667.18 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.05%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.18%. Lithium stocks rose strongly, the semiconductor industry rallied, and precious metals declined [1]. - European central banks kept interest rates unchanged and entered a wait - and - see mode. Traders reduced their bets on further interest rate cuts this year [8][12]. - The China - EU Summit achieved little. The EU called on China to open its market and address over - capacity issues [8][12]. - The US initial jobless claims fell for the sixth consecutive week, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, highlighting the resilience of the labor market [12]. Company - Specific Highlights Company Listing and Performance - Zhonghui Yuantong Bio, a vaccine company, resubmitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Its losses widened in the first quarter [10]. - Pinduoduo appointed Ernst & Young Hong Kong to audit its financial statements, which analysts believe may be a step towards listing in Hong Kong [10]. - Juzhi Technology reapplied for listing in Hong Kong. Its net profit decreased by 13.6% in the first four months of this year [10]. Company Business Moves - JD Group is in advanced talks to acquire German electronics retailer Ceconomy for about $2.6 billion [13]. - Zijin Mining is leading the bid for the African "Tongon" gold mine, with an offer potentially up to $500 million [13]. Company Ratings - Morgan Stanley re - covered CK Hutchison, giving it a "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$65, representing a 28% upside from the current price [13]. - Morgan Stanley raised the target price of China Hongqiao to HK$24.8 and reiterated its "Buy" rating [13]. Company Product Developments - China Biopharmaceutical's subsidiary, Lixin Pharmaceutical, obtained the IND approval for its innovative drug LM - 350 "CDH17 ADC" from the US FDA [13]. Company Land Transactions - Cai Wensheng of Meitu is reported to have bought a plot in Causeway Bay for HK$750 million [13]. Company Profit Projections - Lingbao Gold expects its mid - year net profit to increase by up to 3.5 times year - on - year [13]. Market Data Summaries Stock Price Changes - Various stocks in different markets showed different price changes, including those in A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks. For example, in A - shares, stocks like HNA Holdings and Hainan Airport had significant price increases [30]. Dividends and Rights Issues - Multiple companies had dividend announcements, rights issues, or share consolidation plans. For instance, ASMPT announced a mid - year dividend of HK$0.26 [16]. Economic Indicators - US economic indicators such as long - term net TIC flows, new home starts, and consumer confidence index showed different trends. The long - term net TIC flows in May were $259.4 billion, a decrease of $7.8 billion [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With recent positive trade progress, gold and silver prices have continuously declined. Before the new tariff deadline, there was a peak in negotiations. After the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, multiple media reported that the US and the EU are expected to reach a preliminary agreement on imposing a 15% tariff, cooling the risk - aversion sentiment. US CPI has rebounded, further cooling the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. Although the impact of the US tariff policy shown by economic data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. In addition, the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the price is high and the upward movement is hesitant. Silver is showing strength driven by industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a volatile and slightly upward trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2508, 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2508, 2512, there were small declines in prices with the largest decline being - 0.18% for Shanghai Silver 2512. In the spot market, London Gold and London Silver also decreased, with London Gold dropping by - 1.66% [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of different futures contracts vary. For example, the position of Shanghai Gold 2512 is 110,694 and the trading volume is 46,395 [2] - **Spread and Ratio**: The current values of spreads such as Shanghai Gold 2512 - Shanghai Gold 2506 and ratios like gold/silver have changed compared to previous values [2] Inventory - The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 501 kg, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 402,925 [2] Related Market Indicators - The US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate all have their current values and changes. For example, the US dollar index is currently 97.4884, up 0.29% [2] ETF and CFTC Positions - The positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while that in gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Macro News - US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and pressured for interest rate cuts. An investment company sued Federal Reserve officials for closed - door policy meetings. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and listed "trade disputes" as a major source of policy uncertainty. The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary values of the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April [4]

2025年07月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：价格转弱 | 6 | | 铅：国内总库存偏高，限制价格反弹 | 8 | | 锡：佤邦洪灾扰动价格 | 9 | | 铝：短期震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：价格走强 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 25 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收 ...

KVB App发现周四这一天，本应是美联储建筑翻新工地里一次寻常的巡视，却因美国总统特朗普与美联储 主席鲍威尔的到场，演变成了一场充满火药味的交锋。两人刚一碰面，就为央行大楼的改造费用争执起 来，气氛瞬间变得紧张。 特朗普一开口就直指预算问题，称原本 25 亿美元的预算已经膨胀到了 31 亿美元，语气中满是不满。面对 总统的指责，鲍威尔并没有退缩，而是冷静地进行反驳。就在两人各执一词时，特朗普从西装内袋里掏出 一张纸，递给了鲍威尔。鲍威尔戴上眼镜，仔细查看这张纸，很快便发现了问题所在，他指着纸上的内 容，语气带着一丝无奈地纠正道："您刚加进了第三栋楼，先生。" 原来，特朗普所说的这栋楼，是美联储 在 2021 年就已经完成翻新的相邻办公楼，显然不该被算进此次的改造预算中。 这场关于预算的争执，只是两人矛盾的冰山一角。《华尔街日报》著名记者 Nick Timiraos，这位素有 "美 联储传声筒" 之称的资深媒体人，在其文章中明确表示，这远远不是特朗普和鲍威尔之间最严重的分歧。 但特朗普显然不满足于此，他把这次非同寻常的工地巡视时刻打造成政治剧场，就是要利用舆论的力量， 给鲍威尔制造更多的公众压力。他试图让民众 ...

2025.07. 24 本文字数：1454，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 24日，欧洲央行（下称"欧央行"）宣布三大关键利率维持不变——存款利率为2.00%，主要再融资利 率为2.15%，边际贷款利率为2.40%，结束此前连续七次降息的进程。 该决议声明显示，最新经济和通胀数据"大致符合此前评估"，目前国内价格压力持续缓解，工资增速 也出现放缓，表明前期政策调整已部分传导至实体经济。欧央行重申将继续采取"依赖数据、逐次评 估"的方式决定未来利率路径，强调"不会预设特定方向"。 在随后新闻发布会上，欧央行行长拉加德表示，当前利率水平"处于合理区间"，货币政策正在为实现 2%的中期通胀目标发挥支持作用。她同时表示，虽然家庭消费受到就业和实际收入改善的支撑， 但"欧元走强和更高关税可能使企业投资面临更多障碍"。 德意志银行首席欧洲经济学家沃尔（Mark Wall）认为，欧央行此举"释放出更为谨慎的信号"，显示 政策层目前更倾向于等待局势明朗后再行决策。他表示，"只要外部风险仍未解除，欧央行就没有必 要急于推进新一轮宽松。" 荷兰AFS集团研究总监阿恩·佩蒂梅萨斯（Arne Petimezas）亦表 ...

有欧洲央行官员表示，欧洲央行官员对于9月的基本预期是继续维持 利率不变。 ...