美联储克利夫兰联储主席 Beth Hammack 表示，在通胀仍高于目标、数据存在失真背景下，未来数月内 没有必要调整利率。她称，11 月 CPI 的降温可能因政府停摆导致的数据问题而被低估，实际通胀或接 近 2.9%–3.0%。在更清楚评估关税对物价和经济影响前，倾向将政策利率维持在 3.5%–3.75% 区间至少 至明年春季，并认为当前利率可能已接近甚至略低于中性水平。（WSJ） 来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） ...

周一欧洲交易时段，英镑兑美元走强，上涨约 0.18%，交投于 1.3400 附近，盘中高点触及 1.3415。 周二将公布的美国第三季度 GDP 初值成为关注焦点，市场预计年化增速为 3.2%，低于第二季度的 3.8%。若数据不及预期，可能促使市场重新评估美联储 短期政策立场。CME FedWatch 显示，市场预计美联储在 1 月会议降息 25 个基点的概率约为 22.5%。 汇价上行主要受英国经济数据落地、美元阶段性走弱以及技术面偏多因素共同推动。中长期走势仍取决于英国经济基本面表现及英国央行政策路径。 英国国家统计局确认，第三季度 GDP 环比增长 0.1%，与初值一致。 数据对英镑形成一定支撑，吸引短线资金入场，但市场反应相对克制。投资者普遍认为，数据难以扭转对英国经济前景的谨慎预期，第四季度增长动能仍存 不确定性。 英国央行上周公布的货币政策声明显示，工作人员预计第四季度 GDP 零增长。央行以 5 比 4 的投票结果决定降息 25 个基点，将基准利率下调至 3.75%，这 是自 2024 年 8 月启动降息周期以来的第六次降息。此前公布的数据显示，10 月英国经济意外萎缩 0.1%，加深市场对复苏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the US dollar, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rates and inflation [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50% [1]. - Traders are focusing on the upcoming RBA meeting minutes to gauge the central bank's policy direction and stance on inflation [2]. - As of December 18, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures for February 2026 indicate a 27% probability of the RBA raising rates to 3.85% [3]. Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US dollar has ended a three-day rally, with the dollar index (DXY) trading around 98.60, as market participants await the release of the US Q3 GDP annualized data [4]. - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester stated that current monetary policy is appropriate for pausing rate hikes to assess the impact of previous rate cuts [4]. - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2021 [4]. Group 3: Leadership Changes in the Federal Reserve - The next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to be someone who supports significant rate cuts, with Christopher Waller being a potential candidate who has reiterated a dovish stance on interest rates [5]. Group 4: Australian Inflation Data - Australian consumer inflation expectations have risen from 4.5% in November to 4.7% in December, supporting a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia [6]. Group 5: Australian Dollar Technical Analysis - The Australian dollar is currently trading around 0.6620, maintaining an overall upward trend, with key resistance levels at 0.6685 and 0.6707 [8]. - The 14-day RSI is at 57.05, indicating a neutral to bullish sentiment, while the 9-day EMA shows an upward trend but may exert short-term pressure on prices [8].

关注数据连续性风险：政府停摆等因素可能影响宏观数据，应以趋势和多指标交叉验证为判断依据。 地缘风险溢价仍存：东欧、中东及能源相关事件仍可能对黄金、原油及部分避险货币产生阶段性冲击。 UNFX12月22日讯 在本轮三次累计降息完成后，美联储内部对于未来政策路径的分歧逐渐显现。克利 夫兰联储行长贝丝·哈马克指出，短期内没有必要进一步调整利率，更倾向于维持在3.50%—3.75%的区 间；纽约联储主席威廉姆斯也表达了类似"暂停"的立场。同时，白宫关于下一任美联储主席的人选讨论 持续发酵，政治因素叠加政策信号，使市场对未来利率走势的定价更为谨慎。 12月例会后出现三张反对票，点阵图中亦显示多位官员对进一步降息持保留态度。哈马克表示，在通胀 回落尚未确认、就业市场无明显恶化前，应维持利率稳定；她还提醒，11月CPI可能因政府停摆导致数 据缺失而被低估。威廉姆斯则认为，累计降息已为经济提供一定缓冲，短期无需进一步行动。政治层 面，特朗普公开表示将任命一位支持大幅降息的美联储主席，哈塞特与沃什仍在白宫候选名单中。市场 因此面临双重博弈：一是官员表态与经济数据形成的现实约束，二是潜在人事安排可能在中长期重新影 响政策预期。C ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest rate in 30 years and the first increase in 11 months since January 2025, indicating a commitment to continue tightening monetary policy amid inflation concerns [1] - Following the interest rate hike, the Japanese yen weakened significantly, with the USD/JPY reaching a four-week high of 157.76, leading to increased volatility in cross-currency pairs such as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, did not provide specific guidance on future rate hikes, stating that the "door to tightening is open," which contributed to market perceptions of a less hawkish stance [1] Group 2 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, warned of potential intervention in the currency market to address excessive volatility, particularly in response to speculative movements [2] - Analysts from Danske Bank predict that the combination of expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and stable rates from the European Central Bank will strengthen the euro against the dollar, forecasting an increase from 1.1709 to 1.23 within 12 months [2] - Analysts from Onex Europe suggest that the performance of the UK economy in early 2026 will influence the Bank of England's monetary policy, with expectations of continued pressure on the British pound due to slow economic growth [2]

分组1: Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7% in November, which was lower than the expected 3.1%, sparking hopes for potential easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - Core CPI increased by 2.6% over the past 12 months, below the anticipated rise of 3%, although caution is advised in interpreting this as a downward trend due to missing October data [2] 分组2: Pharmaceutical Developments - Eli Lilly announced progress in its obesity pill trials, stating that its oral GLP-1 medication helped patients maintain weight loss after switching from injections, highlighting its potential in the GLP-1 market [4] 分组3: Central Bank Actions - The Bank of England (BOE) cut rates, while the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates steady, indicating a division among central banks regarding policy direction [7] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise rates to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, which could strengthen the yen but may also dampen growth [11] 分组4: Earnings Reports - Carnival is expected to report a revenue growth of over 7% year-over-year to $6.37 billion, a deceleration from the previous year's 10% increase, with earnings anticipated at 25 cents per share, marking a 79% increase from last year [9]

在欧洲央行连续第四次会议维持利率不变且上调今明后三年经济增长预期后，欧央行行长拉加德重申央行在利率政策方面处于"有利位置"。这一表态旨在平 衡市场对货币政策方向的预期。欧央行预计2026年和2027年通胀将略低于2%目标，2028年才能完全回归目标水平。 当地时间18日周四的欧央行会后新闻发布会上，拉加德强调，虽然央行的政策处于"有利位置"，但这"并不意味着我们是静止不变的"。欧洲央行管理委员会 的成员一致认为，"所有政策选项都应保留在台面上"，将继续坚持逐次会议、依据数据作决策的方式，央行没有预设任何利率路径。周四的利率决议获得全 体一致通过。 欧元区经济显示出韧性，第三季度增长0.3%。欧央行上调了多项增长和通胀预测，其中2026年通胀预期上调主要因服务业通胀下降速度预计将更为缓慢。 通胀前景的不确定性仍高于往常，这使得央行无法提供前瞻指引。 拉加德还就她继任者的问题发表评论，称欧央行对下任行长人选"没有任何偏好"。她表示，欧央行执行委员会委员Isabel Schnabel是众多优秀候选人之一， 并敦促法律专家，重新审视现任执委是否有资格竞选行长的问题。最终决定将由欧洲理事会作出。 欧元兑美元在欧洲央行公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, with the deposit rate remaining at 2%, aligning with analysts' expectations [1] Economic Resilience and Inflation Target - The macroeconomic backdrop of the meeting indicates stronger resilience in the Eurozone economy than previously anticipated, with the third quarter performance exceeding market expectations [5] - The ECB's statement reflects a tolerance for short-term inflation fluctuations, projecting that inflation will stabilize at the 2% target in the medium term, despite forecasts suggesting it may be slightly below this target over the next two years [5] Market Expectations Shift and Policy Divergence - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady distinguishes it from the global trend of monetary easing, as both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve have recently cut rates [6] - Investors are reassessing their expectations, moving away from a singular focus on easing and beginning to price in the possibility of the ECB raising rates as early as 2026 [6] Decision-Maker Stance Towards Hawkishness - Statements from ECB officials reinforce expectations of a pause in rate cuts and potential future rate hikes, with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel indicating that she is not overly concerned as long as inflation deviates only slightly from the target [7] - The previously dovish stance of Lithuanian central bank governor Gediminas Simkus has shifted, acknowledging the unexpectedly strong economic performance and suggesting no further easing is necessary [7] Interest Rate Details - ECB deposit facility rate: 2%, expected: 2%, previous: 2% [8] - ECB marginal lending rate: 2.4%, expected: 2.4%, previous: 2.4% [8] - ECB main refinancing rate: 2.15%, expected: 2.15%, previous: 2.15% [8]

风险提示及免责条款 欧元区欧洲央行存款便利利率 2%，预期 2%，前值 2%。欧元区欧洲央行边际贷款利率 2.4%，预期 2.4%，前值 2.4%。欧元区欧洲央行主要再融资利率 2.15%，预期 2.15%，前值 2.15%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

周四(12月18日)回溯12月17日市场动态，时值年末交易窗口，市场资金一方面忙于消化滞后发布的美国 劳动力市场数据，另一方面则围绕即将公布的美国消费者物价指数进行仓位再平衡。在此背景下，美元 兑加元汇率从1.3745一线的阶段低位展开反弹，欧洲交易时段回升至1.3780上方交投。 本轮美元兑加元的波动核心，始终锚定在美联储降息路径再定价与加拿大央行利率维持意愿的相对博弈 之上。美国劳动力市场数据呈现明显的疲软特征：10月净就业人数减少约10.5万人，11月就业人数虽回 升约6.4万人，却远不及市场对"强劲修复"的预期；失业率攀升至4.6%的四年高位，同时薪资同比增速 放缓至3.5%。单从数据本身判断，这类表现通常会推动市场强化鸽派利率预期，认为美联储具备更大 的政策放松空间。但汇率定价的关键逻辑在于，其不仅交易数据本身，更交易"数据相对预期的增 量"与"预期是否已被价格消化"——当市场此前已为美国经济数据偏弱的前景预留了降息想象空间，那 么新增疲软数据对美元的压制力度就会边际递减，甚至催生"先跌后稳、再回补"的典型行情节奏。 正是基于这一逻辑，美元在短暂走弱后重新企稳转强。当前市场对美联储1月启动降息的预期 ...