欧洲央行执行委员会成员奇波洛尼(Piero Cipollone)表示，目前利率处于合适水平，他不认为通胀在任何 方向上存在重大威胁。奇波洛尼在接受采访时表示，尽管主要由贸易引发的不确定性存在，但欧洲经济 依然"相当有韧性"。他表示，本季度出现放缓后，增长应会恢复此前的模式，"我们认为通胀风险非常 均衡。我们处在一个良好位置。我是说，我们正好在目标水平上。未来两年我们都会接近目标"。 目前，随着通胀达到2%的目标，且尽管美国加征关税带来阻力，欧元区20国的产出仍在持续增长。政 策制定者似乎乐于暂时将借贷成本维持在当前水平。不过，欧洲央行行长拉加德尚未就价格风险的平衡 发表评论。 虽然投资者和分析师已排除了将存款机制利率从当前2%水平进一步下调的可能性，但部分官员希望在 年底重新评估形势。届时，他们将在12月开会，获得新一轮经济预测，这将更清晰地揭示美国总统特朗 普加征关税的影响、并帮助他们判断当前利率水平是否低到足以可持续地实现2%的通胀目标。 在日前哥本哈根举行的欧洲财长会议期间，与会的欧洲央行决策者们表示，他们有信心认为目前2%的 存款机制利率适合实现该目标。但在如何评估经济前景面临的风险严重程度、以及对通 ...

周三(9月24日)亚洲时段，现货黄金目前交投于3760一线上方，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3764.83美元/盎 司，上涨0.03%，最高触及3771.29美元/盎司，最低下探3750.49美元/盎司。美联储继续鸽派表述，支撑 年内降息预期升温，但美元指数并未破位下行，短期对于黄金的上涨更多的是地缘局势推动的避险情绪 升温，而中期来看，黄金ETF的持续流入给予金价一定的支撑作用，目前依然处于多头区间之内。 9月24日，黄金继续保持上涨走势，隔夜市场COMEX黄金期货涨0.58%报3796.9美元/盎司，SHFE黄金 上涨1.02%报859.88。 周二公布的美国9月标普全球服务业PMI初值录得53.9，低于市场预期54，前值位54.5；美国9月标普全 球制造业PMI初值录得52，符合市场预期，前值位53。 标普全球首席经济学家威廉姆森表示，9月份产出进一步强劲增长，为美国企业今年迄今表现最好的一 个季度画上了圆满的句号。PMI调查数据与美国经济第三季度2.2%的年化增长率一致。然而，月度数据 显示，经济增长已从7月份的近期峰值放缓，9月份企业也缩减了招聘，未来生产面临一些下行风险。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Ti ...

"我们面临双向风险，不存在毫无风险的政策路径。"鲍威尔坦言。他警示道，若降息幅度过大、节奏过 快，可能使通胀长期徘徊在接近3%的水平，偏离美联储设定的2%目标；反之，若过度维持紧缩的政策 立场，则可能无端加剧劳动力市场的脆弱性。 鲍威尔再次强调，今年夏季就业增长步伐的放缓，为上周的政策调整提供了有力支撑，促使美联储相较 于年初更加重视劳动力市场的动态平衡。尽管劳动力供给端的扩张速度也在减缓，但他指出，夏季新增 就业岗位的数量未能充分满足求职者的需求。 摘要今日周三（9月24日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3750美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3754.50美元/盎司，跌幅0.25%，最高上探3771.29美元/盎司，最低触及3753.26美元/盎司。美联储主席 鲍威尔表示，即使在上周降息之后，他仍判断美联储的利率立场"依然适度限制"。 今日周三（9月24日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3750美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3754.50美元/盎司，跌幅0.25%，最高上探3771.29美元/盎司，最低触及3753.26美元/盎司。美联储主席 鲍威尔表示，即使在上周降息之后，他仍判断美联储的利率立场 ...

The Fed chair warns 'there is no risk-free path' after officials cut rates last week ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound's exchange rate against the US dollar is influenced by upcoming inflation data, which will be crucial for the Bank of England's interest rate decisions in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 [1] Group 1: Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The Bank of England Governor Bailey indicated that while inflation is expected to return to the 2% target, the economy is "not out of the woods" yet [1] - The central bank maintains a forecast that the consumer price index will peak at 4%, with July and August data showing an increase of 3.8% [1] - The September inflation data is anticipated to be released in mid-October, and if the Bank's predictions hold, a rate cut may occur before Q1 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Positioning and Currency Movements - The sustained high interest rates due to rising inflation are expected to have a more detrimental effect on the pound [1] - As of September 16, the net short positions on the pound decreased to 6,580 contracts, marking the smallest size since the shift from net long to short positions at the end of July [1] - The GBP/USD pair has seen a slight rebound after a continuous decline from a two-and-a-half-month high of 1.3725, breaking below key support levels [1]

Group 1: China Macro - The ICHI Composite Economic Index remains in the contraction zone, but shows slight improvement compared to last week, indicating marginal economic recovery[1] - The consumption index is still in contraction, suggesting that consumer spending momentum needs to be restored[1] - The production index has fallen back into contraction, reflecting volatility in supply-side recovery, although investment remains a core support for stable growth[1] - The investment index remains in the expansion zone, indicating that investment continues to support economic stability[1] - The export index has stabilized at the edge of expansion, showing resilience in Chinese exports despite weak global demand[1] Group 2: Global Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year[6] - The Canadian central bank also cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, with a cautious stance on future policy directions[6] - The UK central bank maintained its benchmark rate at 4%, emphasizing a cautious approach due to rising inflation risks[7] - In the U.S., initial jobless claims fell to 231,000, below market expectations, but the number of continuing claims remains above 1.9 million, indicating challenges in the labor market[8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - The alumina market shows a low - level oscillation in the main contract, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient with a slight increase, while demand growth is less than supply growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract rises first and then falls, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips [2]. - The cast aluminum main contract opens low and rebounds slightly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of cast aluminum is reduced, and demand shows a slight recovery but remains weak. Light - position short - term long trading on dips is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,745 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 19 yuan. The main contract position is 236,067 lots, down 9,800 lots. The LME aluminum three - month quote is 2,676 US dollars/ton, down 29 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,934 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 15 yuan, down 4 yuan. The main contract position is 317,523 lots, up 11,106 lots [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,340 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 60 yuan, down 45 yuan. The main contract position is 10,767 lots, up 351 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,950 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the average price of Yangtze Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,840 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 5 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of alumina is 6 yuan, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 610 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The monthly production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the utilization rate of production capacity is 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points. The demand from the electrolytic aluminum part is 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the import volume of aluminum scrap is 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production is 217,260.71 tons, down 30,322.61 tons. The export volume is 25,604.34 tons, down 15,383.37 tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 53.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Industry**: The monthly production is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate Industry**: The national housing prosperity index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.64%, down 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.13%, down 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.05%, up 0.0031 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, which may affect the global capital re - balance, and non - US equity markets are more favored [2]. - Sino - US relations are expected to be improved through communication [2]. - The real estate industry is entering a transformation period from "quantity" to "quality" [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The main contract of alumina oscillates at a low level, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient with a slight increase, while demand growth is less than supply growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.9 Aluminum View Summary - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rises first and then falls, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy opens low and rebounds slightly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of cast aluminum is reduced, and demand shows a slight recovery but remains weak. Light - position short - term long trading on dips is recommended [2]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China announced the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for September 22, 2025, with a 1-year LPR at 3.0% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5%, remaining effective until the next announcement [1][2] - The LPR has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [2] Group 1 - The LPR for 1-year loans is set at 3.0% and for loans over 5 years at 3.5% [1] - The announcement was made by the National Interbank Funding Center, authorized by the People's Bank of China [1][2] - The current LPR reflects a low-interest-rate environment, with limited room for further cuts [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut during its September meeting, marking the first rate cut of the year [3] - The Fed's decision may trigger a wave of rate cuts among global central banks, although China's benchmark rate is already low [3] - There remains some room for monetary easing in China despite the low benchmark rates [3]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - Silver futures are currently trading above 10,185, opening at 9,971 CNY/kg, and are reported at 10,247 CNY/kg, reflecting a 3.11% increase, with a high of 10,277 CNY/kg and a low of 9,964 CNY/kg, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The Shanghai silver market has reached new highs, closing around 10,250 CNY/kg, with trading focused on buying on dips, while support levels are noted at 10,000 and 9,800 CNY/kg, suggesting potential adjustments around the National Day holiday [5] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - New Fed Governor Milan emphasizes his independence in analyzing economic data and will articulate his interest rate views, alleviating market concerns about the Fed's autonomy [3] - Milan supports a 50 basis point rate cut, arguing that current rates are significantly above neutral levels and that there are no evident inflation risks, particularly due to immigration policies affecting housing demand [3][4] - He predicts that rates need to be lowered by over one percentage point by year-end, warning that maintaining high rates could pose significant risks to employment targets [4]

汇通财经APP讯——在美联储政策决策的关键时刻，新任理事米兰以独立姿态亮相，他公开表示将独立 分析经济数据，并在周一（9月22日）的纽约发言中全面阐述自己的利率观点。这位新上任的理事强 调，自己没有从特朗普总统那里收到任何政策指示，这不仅缓解了市场对美联储独立性的疑虑，还凸显 出当前利率政策的分歧。米兰支持更大幅度的降息，与美联储主流共识形成鲜明对比，而明尼亚波利斯 联储主席卡什卡利则认为米兰的上任不过是常规人事变动，并对美联储的公众信任表示乐观。整个事件 反映出美国经济政策在就业、通胀和政治影响之间的微妙平衡，值得投资者密切关注。 米兰的独立政策宣言 米兰作为美联储的新任理事，在上周五（9月19日）的公开表态中明确强调了自己的独立性。他表示， 自己将基于对经济数据的客观解读来制定政策，不会受到外部干扰。这位理事刚刚在上周的会议中宣誓 就职，并在会上支持降息50个基点，这让他成为唯一持此观点的人。米兰承认自己的立场与众不同，并 承诺将在周一的发言中详细解释背后的经济逻辑和计算过程。他认为，当前的利率水平距离"中性"还有 较大差距，经济中不存在明显的通胀风险，尤其是在严格移民政策的影响下，住房需求将受到抑制，从 ...