金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报 ： Beta 、换手率因子表现较好 -20250504》 2025-05-04 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业进 入高估区域？——估值与基金重仓股配 置监控 2025-05-03》 2025-05-03 3 《金融工程：金融工程-净利润断层 本周超额基准 0.92%》 2025-05-03 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：突破压力位前保持中性 突破压力位前保持中性 上周周报(20250427)认为：全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估 值不高，建议在压力位突破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 维持原状。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 0.84%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，上证 50 下跌 0.59%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括传媒、计算机，传媒上涨 2.86%，综合金融、房地产 ...

一、本周指数增强组合表现 沪深300指数增强组合本周超额收益-1.26%，本年超额收益1.88%。 中证500指数增强组合本周超额收益-0.50%，本年超额收益3.40%。 中证1000指数增强组合本周超额收益-0.78%，本年超额收益4.40%。 中证A500指数增强组合本周超额收益-0.22%，本年超额收益4.88%。 二、本周选股因子表现跟踪 沪深300成分股中一年动量、一个月反转、DELTAROE等因子表现较好。 中证500成分股中一个月反转、SPTTM、高管薪酬等因子表现较好。 中证1000成分股中非流动性冲击、3个月盈利上下调、预期净利润环比等因 子表现较好。 中证A500成分股中一个月反转、一年动量、高管薪酬等因子表现较好。 公募基金重仓股中一年动量、DELTAROA、特异度等因子表现较好。 三、本周公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 沪深300指数增强产品本周超额收益最高0.44%，最低-0.66%，中位 数-0.06%。 中证500指数增强产品本周超额收益最高0.48%，最低-1.30%，中位 数-0.35%。 中证1000指数增强产品本周超额收益最高1.09%，最低-0.82%，中位 数-0.0 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has conducted significant liquidity injections, including a 530.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation and a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan, indicating a strong effort to stabilize the market [1] - The market is expected to experience a potential rebound around mid-year, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing resilience despite slight fluctuations [3] - Concerns exist regarding the current market dynamics, as the index is facing pressure from the 30-day moving average, suggesting a cautious outlook for individual stocks, particularly in the semiconductor and technology sectors [5] Group 2 - The brokerage sector has shown a rebound, positively influencing market sentiment, with small-cap stocks gaining attention as funds shift from large to small caps [7] - The trading volume has increased despite expectations of low activity, indicating that investors are positioning for potential market gains following the holiday [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419) [2][8] Core Views - The demand remains weak, impacting profitability due to impairment losses. In Q1 2025, total revenue was CNY 625 million, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -CNY 73 million compared to CNY 5 million in the same period last year [2][8] - The company is actively adjusting to pressures, with expectations for gradual improvement in operations throughout the year. The report anticipates that the reduction in cattle and the introduction of new products will help stabilize revenue and improve profitability [2][8] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 2,804 million in 2024 to CNY 3,327 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 5.2%, 6.4%, and 6.0% respectively [4] - Net profit is expected to recover from CNY 44 million in 2024 to CNY 204 million in 2027, with significant growth rates of -69.3%, 94.2%, 100.6%, and 20.0% [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to increase from CNY 0.14 in 2024 to CNY 0.64 in 2027, reflecting the company's recovery strategy [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [4] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the sales revenue from various product lines showed a decline, with revenue from ambient products at CNY 347 million, down 4.37%, and low-temperature products at CNY 239 million, down 0.64% [8] - The company experienced a 12.37% increase in dairy product sales volume year-on-year, attributed to promotional activities in the Xinjiang region [8] Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on reducing cattle numbers and introducing new products to adapt to market pressures. New product launches include passion fruit milk beer and baked milk skin, aimed at diversifying revenue streams [8] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the raw milk price cycle and the potential impact of consumer stimulus policies on future performance [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 1.562 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 800.98%, and net profit of 376 million yuan, up 271.95% [1] - The self-operated investment segment has expanded significantly, with revenue of 709 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 573.27%, indicating a strong performance in investment activities [1] - The integration of Minsheng Securities is expected to enhance the company's investment banking capabilities and overall performance [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.562 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 800.98% and a net profit of 376 million yuan, reflecting a 271.95% increase [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 was 0.08 yuan, a 200.00% increase year-on-year [1] - The return on equity (ROE) was 0.96%, up 2.19 percentage points from the previous year [1] Business Segments - Investment business revenue was 709 million yuan, up 573.27% year-on-year, while brokerage business revenue reached 469 million yuan, increasing by 333.69% [1][2] - The investment banking segment generated 174 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 124.54%, with bond underwriting volume reaching 33.874 billion yuan, up 197.90% [2] - Asset management revenue was 162 million yuan, reflecting a 13.82% increase year-on-year [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 972 million yuan, 1.102 billion yuan, and 1.251 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing growth rates of 144.6%, 13.4%, and 13.5% [3][4] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 55.3, 48.8, and 43.0 respectively, while the price-to-book (PB) ratios are all projected at 1.0 [3][4]

证券研究报告|公司动态报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 经营困境反转，盈利能力修复 [Table_Title2] 巨一科技(688162) [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年报及 25 年一季报 2024 年，公司实现营收 35.2 亿元，同比-4.5%，实现归母净利 润 0.2 亿元，同比扭亏为盈。24Q4，公司实现营收 11.9 亿 元，同比-11.8%；实现归母净利润 0.4 亿元，同比扭亏为盈。 25Q1，公司实现营收 9.6 亿元，同比+13.2%；实现归母净利 润 0.3 亿元，同比+3.3%。 ► 24 年海外收入有所下滑，新能源汽车电机电控高 速增长 分市场来看，2024 年公司国内营收 31.9 亿元，同比+0.2%； 海外营收 2.8 亿元，同比-35.6%。分产品来看，①智能装备收 入下滑，24 年营收 23.4 亿元，同比-20.2%，收入占比降至 66%；②新能源汽车电机电控零部件同比大幅增长，营收实现 11.3 亿元，同比+64.1%，收入占比提升至 32%。 ► 24 年毛利率修复，控制期间费用，净利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market and the implications of upcoming economic data releases, highlighting the tension between bullish and bearish positions in a "policy market" context [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with notable short sellers taking rare long positions, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of technical and funding aspects that suggest multi-cycle layout strategies in the gold market [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The focus is on the upcoming key economic data releases that could impact both gold and U.S. stock markets, with specific attention to the conditions required for a right-side reversal confirmation [1]

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公司全球化产能布局&强研发实力巩固竞争优势。公司从塑胶零部件开始与客户合作，突破注塑模具和 表面处理技术，后发展至核心加热模组和整机生产，公司是少数具有整机研发实力的供应商，且伴随客 户共同研发新产品有望带动公司顺利实现份额提升。此外，公司积极建设全球化一体化的供应链体系， 同时不断加大海外智造基地供应链本土化开发力度，为客户如期交付高质量、高性价比的产品。目前公 司马来智造基地二期建设推进、匈牙利智造基地三期开建，墨西哥智造基地预计2025 年下半年投入使 用。 事件描述 控股股东增持&股权激励增强信心、2025 年为公司困境反转时点，期待后续季度实现更优增长。3 月10 日公司发布激励计划，考核目标为2025 年收入同增25%~50%到45~54亿元（触发值~目标值），预计电 子烟、汽车电子等贡献主要增量，利润增速预计显著高于收入增速，主因公司费用金额稳定，收入高增 会带动费用率下行和净利率上行。预计公司2025-2027 年实现归母净利润5.0/6.9/8.7 亿元，对应PE 24/18/14X。 公司2024 年实现营业总收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润35.73/2.52/2.38 亿元，同比-7%/- ...

据证券之星公开数据整理，近期晶升股份(688478)发布2025年一季报。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收 入7081.35万元，同比下降12.69%，归母净利润-253.32万元，同比下降117.1%。按单季度数据看，第一 季度营业总收入7081.35万元，同比下降12.69%，第一季度归母净利润-253.32万元，同比下降117.1%。 本报告期晶升股份应收账款上升，应收账款同比增幅达38.76%。 | 项目 | 2024年一季报 | 2025年一季报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(元) | 8110.78万 | 7081.35万 | -12.69% | | 归母净利润(元) | 1481.77万 | -253.32万 | -117.10% | | 扣非净利润(元) | 775.02万 | -783.47万 | -201.09% | | 货币资金(元) | 1.82亿 | 1.3亿 | -28.49% | | 应收账款(元) | 1.13亿 | 1.57亿 | 38.76% | | 有息负债 (元) | 1550.75万 | -- | | | 毛利率 | ...