Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market remains volatile, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. 8 - month industrial profit turned positive due to a low base, and some counter - cyclical adjustment policies may be implemented soon. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity, and positive interactions in Sino - US trade relations are beneficial for future trade talks [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The 30 - year treasury bond fell 0.60%, the 10 - year bond fell 0.07%, the 5 - year bond fell 0.09%, and the 2 - year bond fell 0.02% [4]. - From September 19th to September 26th, the 2 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose by 2 basis points, while the 5 - year and 10 - year yields remained flat [7]. - The logic of the treasury bond futures market is that the overall performance of the Chinese economy in August was lower than expected, and counter - cyclical adjustment policies may be introduced. The significant increase in industrial enterprise profits in August was due to the low base last year. The central bank will maintain liquidity, and Sino - US trade interactions are positive. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is expected to be volatile, and the trading strategy is to conduct band operations [33][34]. Industrial Enterprise Data - From January to August, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year - on - year, reversing the downward trend since May. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in July. The increase in August was due to the low base in the same period last year [10]. - From January to August, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises was 89.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The operating income in August increased by 1.9%, 1.0 percentage point faster than in July [10]. - From January to August, the operating income profit margin of large - scale industrial enterprises was 5.24%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 percentage point. Different industries had different profit margins, with the mining industry having a relatively high margin but a decline compared to the previous year [13]. - At the end of August, the asset - liability ratio of large - scale industrial enterprises was 58.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points. The asset - liability ratio of large - scale manufacturing enterprises was 57.4%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [16]. - At the end of August, the average collection period of accounts receivable of large - scale manufacturing enterprises was 71.2 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.9 days, reaching a new high since 2015 [20]. - From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 2.3%, showing a downward trend. Both China and the US have been destocking in recent months [23]. Real Estate Market - In the first quarter, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 23.6 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From April to August, there were year - on - year declines. From September 1st to 25th, the average daily trading area was 22 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 12% due to the low base last year. The year - on - year data in the fourth quarter will face challenges [26]. Labor Market - In August, the unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in urban areas was 18.9%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year. The unemployment rate of 25 - 29 - year - olds was 7.2%, 0.3 percentage point higher than the same period last year. The unemployment rate of 30 - 59 - year - olds was 3.9%, remaining stable compared with the previous month and the same period last year [29]. Capital Market - This week, the overnight funding rate declined. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.41%, compared with 1.46% last week. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.69%, compared with 1.68% last week. On September 25th, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan after deducting the 300 - billion - yuan maturity, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased roll - over [31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2512 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the financial futures stock index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the Treasury bond futures were in narrow - range oscillation yesterday. At the current relatively low level, the short - term upward momentum and downward space are both limited. The short - term possibility of policy interest rate cuts is low, reducing the upward momentum, while the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand remains, and the Fed's rate cut reduces RMB exchange - rate pressure, increasing the possibility of a future loose monetary policy, which strongly supports the Treasury bond futures [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is the co - existence of long - and medium - term interest rate cut expectations and low short - term comprehensive interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The futures were in narrow - range oscillation yesterday. At the current low level, short - term upward and downward movements are restricted. Short - term policy interest rate cuts are unlikely, weakening upward momentum, while domestic demand issues and the Fed's rate cut increase the chance of future loose monetary policy, supporting the futures [5].

Market Analysis - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile and differentiated trend, with the ChiNext index showing strong performance, rising 1.58% to 3235.76 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.01% to 3853.30 points [3][5] - The market's trading volume remains active, with a total turnover of 2.39 trillion yuan, indicating sustained trading sentiment despite the upcoming holidays [3][5] - The technology sector is expected to remain a core focus for the market, with structural opportunities to be seized during the current policy vacuum [3][5] Stock Market Insights - The market is characterized by structural differentiation, with 1,474 stocks rising and 3,875 falling, highlighting the strength of the technology growth sector [5] - Contemporary market dynamics show that Ningde Times has surpassed Kweichow Moutai in market capitalization, closing at 1,806.6 billion yuan, while Kweichow Moutai stands at 1,802 billion yuan [5] - The technology sector, including server, semiconductor, and copper industries, is leading the market, while cyclical sectors like home appliances and coal are underperforming [5] Bond Market Overview - The bond market is maintaining a weak trend, with significant differentiation among various maturity contracts [6][11] - The 30-year bond contract saw a slight increase of 0.11% after hitting a new low, while shorter-term contracts experienced declines [11] - The market is currently facing short-term pressures, with no interest rate cuts expected in the near term, leading to a cautious market sentiment [11] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is witnessing a strong performance in industrial products, particularly copper, which surged by 3.40% to reach a new high [7][11] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to supply disruptions caused by a landslide at the Grasberg mine, leading to concerns over supply shortages [11] - Precious metals are experiencing a strong upward trend due to expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties [10][11] Investment Strategy Insights - The report suggests a shift in market style from "technology-led" to "balanced allocation," with strong performance expected from specific segments within the technology sector and dividend stocks [12] - In the long term, the report remains optimistic about the A-share market, driven by global liquidity from the Fed's interest rate cuts and domestic economic recovery [12] - The report highlights the potential for long-term investments in precious and non-ferrous metals due to easing global liquidity [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. Treasury futures experienced a decline in the afternoon trading session on September 24, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.34% [1] - The 10-year main contract fell by 0.07%, while the 5-year main contract decreased by 0.06% [1] - The 2-year main contract saw a slight decline of 0.01% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and rising risk appetite. At the same time, the expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.23, down 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1146, up 0.001 (+0.01%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.46, with no change (-0.27%); DR007 was 1.48, down 0.01 (-0.90%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, up 0.01 (+0.63%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.63%) [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures related to the closing price trends, price change rates, capital precipitation trends, position ratios, net position ratios of the top 20, long - short position ratios of the top 20, the spread between government - owned enterprise bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures contracts [13][16][18][22]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report shows figures on the Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [28][36]. 3.4 Spread Overview - The report includes figures on the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures contracts and the term spreads of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][37][38]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [44][49][52]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [54][58]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][63]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][74]. 4. Market Analysis 4.1 Macroeconomic Aspects - Policy: Since August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The previous bonds issued before this date will remain VAT - exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and increase effective investment [1]. - Inflation: The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. 4.2 Capital Aspects - Fiscal: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed, indicating increased capital activity and improved corporate business vitality. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan, with a high proportion of government bond financing, reflecting weak medium - to - long - term corporate financing demand. Deposits increased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly, indicating weakened bank asset expansion power and the economy being in a weak recovery stage [2]. - Central Bank: On September 23, 2025, the central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.462%, 1.567%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4.3 Market Aspects - Closing Prices: On September 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.63 yuan, 107.72 yuan, and 114.32 yuan respectively, with price change rates of - 0.05%, - 0.13%, - 0.21%, and - 0.67% respectively [2]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.007 yuan, - 0.030 yuan, 0.018 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan respectively [2]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that Treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term, with both upward and downward pressures. There is potential for medium - to long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of an immediate full - scale rate cut is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "sideways - bullish", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is that there are still medium - to long - term expectations of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term full - scale rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "sideways - bullish", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". - The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. Although the September LPR remained unchanged, there is still potential for medium - to long - term interest rate cuts. The weak credit data in August, the marginal slowdown in consumption growth, and the weak inflation data have increased the expectation of macro - policies to stabilize demand in the fourth quarter. With the Fed's rate cut in September and two more expected cuts this year, there is still an expectation of monetary easing in the future, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium - to long - term. - However, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. Firstly, there is no high need for an immediate full - scale rate cut, which needs to be coordinated with fiscal policies. Secondly, the stock - bond seesaw effect suppresses the demand for Treasury bonds [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward movement of government bond futures on September 22, with various maturities showing increases in their main contracts [1] Group 2 - The 2-year government bond futures main contract TS2512 rose by 0.04% to 102.398, resulting in a yield decrease of 2.52 basis points to 1.3854% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures main contract TF2512 increased by 0.13% to 105.770, with a yield decline of 3.11 basis points to 1.5646% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures main contract T2512 saw a rise of 0.20% to 107.975, leading to a yield drop of 2.79 basis points to 1.7795% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures main contract TL2512 went up by 0.22% to 115.130, corresponding to a yield decrease of 1.04 basis points to 2.1855% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom under the influence of policy signals. Recently, the market has been sensitive to negative news, with weak overall recovery momentum. There is a certain deviation between short - term pricing and fundamentals, and sentiment has become the main driving factor. However, in the context of a weak economic recovery, the possibility of a trend - like decline in the bond market is low, and yields are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. Strategically, it is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and also pay attention to the term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价107.975，涨幅0.2%，成交量79097，环比减少61100；TF主力收盘价105.770，涨幅0.13%，成交量50317，环比减少41922；TS主力收盘价102.398，涨幅0.04%，成交量28858，环比减少6939；TL主力收盘价115.130，涨幅0.22%，成交量113691，环比减少65848 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2603价差0.34，环比增加0.02；T2512 - 2603价差0.35，环比增加0.01；TF2512 - 2603价差0.13，环比增加0.00；TS2512 - 2603价差0.07，环比减少0.01；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.16，环比减少0.19；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.21，环比减少0.05；TS12 - T12价差 - 5.58，环比减少0.11；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.37，环比减少0.06 [2] 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量226111，前20名空头持仓215122，增加1880，前20名多头持仓增加4384，前20名净空仓209576，增加4004；TF主力持仓量133337，增加2976，前20名多头持仓122634，增加1910，前20名空头持仓131714，增加3231，前20名净空仓9080，增加1321；TS主力持仓量69343，增加1123，前20名多头持仓56152，减少881，前20名空头持仓59654，减少2318，前20名净空仓3502，减少1437；TL主力持仓量147058，增加151，前20名多头持仓129337，增加3129，前20名空头持仓140904，增加1006，前20名净空仓11567，减少2123 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(6y)净价106.2484，增加0.1339；250018.IB(6y)净价99.0955，增加0.0632；230006.IB(4y)净价105.3031，减少0.0782；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，增加0.0519；250012.IB(1.7y)净价99.943，增加0.0042；220016.IB(2y)净价101.9621，增加0.0046；230009.IB(17y)净价120.494，增加0.2314；210014.IB(18y)净价126.6235，减少0.5765 [2] 3.5 Treasury Bond Active Bonds - 1y收益率1.3900%，持平；3y收益率1.5100%，增加9.25bp；5y收益率1.6050%，增加2.20bp；7y收益率1.7250%，增加2.50bp；10y收益率1.7950%，增加1.25bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.4319%，减少5.81bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.4270%，减少3.40bp；银质押7天利率1.5167%，减少1.33bp；Shibor7天利率1.4660%，减少2.20bp；银质押14天利率1.6500%，增加2.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.6750%，增加2.80bp；1y LPR利率3.00%，持平；5y LPR利率3.5%，持平 [2] 3.7 Open Market Operations - 发行规模2405亿，到期规模2800亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，净回笼 - 395亿 [2] 3.8 Industry News - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance. In the future, multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively used to ensure sufficient liquidity. - On September 22, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. Starting from September 19, the 14 - day reverse repurchase operations in the open market have been adjusted. - The LPR quotation in September remained stable. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% [2] 3.9 Key Points to Focus On - On September 24 at 00:35, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on the economic outlook. - On September 26 at 20:30, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for August will be released [3]

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has seen a price increase of 0.24%, reaching 106.93 yuan as of September 22, 2025 [2] - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was 10.47 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.38% [2] - The average daily trading volume over the past month was 44.63 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [2] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield has risen above 1.8%, reflecting significant market fluctuations [2] - The People's Bank of China is expected to resume government bond trading operations, following a net purchase of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds from August to December 2024 [2] - Economic indicators such as weak credit data and slowing consumption growth have led to expectations of stable macroeconomic policies in the fourth quarter [2] Group 3 - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera is 19.415 billion yuan [3] - There has been a net outflow of 282 million yuan from the ETF recently, although there were net inflows on 8 out of the last 15 trading days, totaling 454 million yuan [3] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is "oscillation." In the short - term (within a week), it is expected to oscillate; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is also expected to oscillate; and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side" [1][5]. - Treasury bond futures have both upward pressure and downward support. In the short term, they will mainly conduct low - level oscillatory consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation," the medium - term view is "oscillation," the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side," and the overall view is "oscillation." The core logic is that there are still expectations of medium - and long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, and TS is "oscillation on the weak side," the medium - term view is "oscillation," and the reference view is "oscillation" [5]. - The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined last Friday. As they have rebounded from the previous bottom, the implied interest rate cut expectation has been reflected, and there is no strong need for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, so there is significant resistance above. In terms of the domestic and foreign economic and financial environment, the credit data in August was weak, the marginal consumption growth rate decreased, and the inflation data was weak. There are rising expectations of macro - policy to stabilize demand in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, and it is expected to cut rates twice more this year, so there are still expectations of future monetary easing. In the medium and long term, there is strong support below Treasury bond futures [5].