Core Insights - The CFO of a major American bank stated that consumer spending continues to rise, primarily supported by employment and wage growth [1] Group 1 - Consumer spending is on an upward trend, indicating a positive economic outlook [1] - The increase in consumer spending is largely attributed to strong job growth and rising wages [1]

Group 1 - The rise of workplace self-media has narrowed the information gap, providing more employment references for young people, but some accounts mislead public expectations by exaggerating individual cases and emotions [1] - Recruitment platforms should align the interests of employers and job seekers for sustainable development, but distorting facts undermines professional ethics and disrupts employment perceptions [1] - Discussions about employment should focus on truth and constructive analysis rather than emotional manipulation, as employment is a societal concern [1] Group 2 - Job seekers, especially recent graduates, face challenges in receiving responses to their applications, highlighting the need for self-awareness regarding their interests and strengths [2] - Gaining practical experience through internships and part-time jobs is recommended to help individuals understand their preferences and industry outlook [2] - Establishing realistic job expectations is crucial, as the job market is competitive, and individuals should be open to various opportunities while being cautious of scams [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicates that the economic conditions are strong, with robust growth and employment, while inflationary pressures are easing [1] Economic Conditions - Economic growth is described as steady, suggesting a positive outlook for various sectors [1] - Employment levels are reported to be stable, indicating a healthy job market [1] Inflation Trends - Inflationary pressures are noted to be alleviating, which could impact monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Core Insights - Countries with greater independence for their central banks tend to perform better in terms of inflation and employment [1] Group 1 - Central bank independence is linked to improved economic outcomes [1] - Enhanced central bank autonomy contributes positively to inflation control [1] - Employment rates are also positively affected by central bank independence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cautious attitude of businesses towards investment is expected to have a significant impact on employment levels in the UK [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey highlighted that the current business investment climate is characterized by caution [1] - This cautious investment behavior is likely to lead to a slowdown in job creation within the economy [1] - The implications of reduced business investment could extend to overall economic growth and stability [1]

氧化铝及铝半年报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 冲击与支撑 核心观点及策略 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 22 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪 证 监 许 可 【2015】 84 号 李婷 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 ⚫ 氧化铝方面，上半年几内亚矿端虽有小扰动，但全年 铝土矿供应预计能满足需求。供应端氧化铝上半年已 投产720万吨新产能，还有460万吨产能待投放，新产 能都集中在沿海使用进口矿，无论从矿石供应及成本 角度看，都比较支持下半年这些新产能投放，供应增 加预期较强。需求端电解铝企业产能刚性，需求稳 定。在供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of the Philippines aims to maintain price stability by ensuring that monetary policy supports sustainable economic growth and employment [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank emphasizes the importance of aligning monetary policy with economic growth objectives [1] - The focus on employment indicates a dual mandate of price stability and job creation [1] - The approach suggests a proactive stance in managing inflation while fostering economic development [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is improving, especially in the black sector, due to the non - appearance of expected significant demand data decline, high - level hot metal production, rising overseas expectations for a July interest rate cut, and potential progress in Sino - US tariff issues [34]. - For most commodities, although short - term market sentiment may drive price rebounds, the fundamental outlook remains bearish, with concerns about demand weakening, supply overcapacity, and potential cost reductions [34][35][38]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.59%, ChiNext up 1.35%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1517.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.1 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long IF index futures contracts on dips and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The yields of treasury bond futures fell on Monday. The economic data in June showed some improvement, and the central bank maintained liquidity injection. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose. The US economic data was weak, increasing market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy to loosen. It is recommended to hold a long - term view on silver prices and expect gold prices to be weak. The operating range of Shanghai gold is 732 - 786 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8561 - 9075 yuan/kilogram [8][10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social and bonded area inventories decreased slightly. The copper price may continue to rise in the short term but the upward momentum may weaken, with the operating range of Shanghai copper at 79000 - 80500 yuan/ton and LME copper at 9750 - 10000 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price was relatively firm. The domestic inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory was at a low level. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the operating range of the domestic main contract at 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at 2560 - 2620 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc ore supply is high, and the production of zinc ingots is expected to increase. A strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter may disturb the market sentiment. The LME Cash - 3S structure is rising, which supports the zinc price [15][16]. - **Lead**: The lead price was strong. The primary lead supply is high, the recycled lead supply is tight, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises is improving. The LME lead 7 - month contract has a high concentration of long - positions, and the Cash - 3S structure is strengthening. However, the weak domestic consumption may limit the increase of Shanghai lead [17]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore supply is expected to loosen, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of Shanghai nickel at 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel at 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [18]. - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is expected to decrease. The terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [19][20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of carbonate lithium decreased. The production is at a historical high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The inventory is increasing. It is recommended to be cautious about the upward space of the price, with the operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2509 contract at 61200 - 63000 yuan/ton [21]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 at 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [22]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price was weak. The supply is high, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of the premium of the futures over the spot [24]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated. The demand in the off - season is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively healthy level. It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was volatile. The supply decreased, the demand was stable, and the inventory increased. The iron ore price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [28][29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price fell slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The demand for glass is weak, and the supply of soda ash is in surplus. Both are expected to be weakly volatile [30]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell slightly. Although the short - term market sentiment may drive a rebound, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious and wait for hedging opportunities [31][32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait for hedging opportunities during the rebound [36][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU fluctuated. The bulls expect price increases due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy [40][41][42]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price fell, and the Brent crude oil price rose. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the oil price has reached a reasonable range. It is advisable to hold short positions but not to short further [43]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price fell. The inventory is low, and the demand is short - term stable. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Urea**: The urea price fell. The production decreased, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is ongoing. The price is expected to be range - bound [45]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be volatile and bearish. The cost is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. - **PVC**: The PVC price fell. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost is expected to rise. The price is expected to be under pressure [48]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are both expected to weaken, and the inventory is expected to decrease slowly. It is recommended to short on rallies [49]. - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [50][51]. - **Para - xylene**: The PX price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price is expected to be bearish in July. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [54]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price rose. The short - term supply may be limited, but the demand is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips for near - term contracts and short on rallies for long - term contracts [56]. - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply and demand are balanced in the short term. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term and reduce short positions or wait and see in the short term [57]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal price was slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips at the lower end of the cost range [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oil price fluctuated. The import data is weak, but there are some supportive factors. The oil price is expected to be volatile [60][61][62]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price was strong. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease, but the import profit and chaotic futures spreads limit the upward space. The sugar price may enter a consolidation phase [63][64]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuated. The US cotton quality is poor, and the domestic supply and demand are stable. The cotton price is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [65][66].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicates that there is currently no sign of a stagflation scenario similar to the 1970s, although the possibility of simultaneous deterioration in inflation and employment does exist [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Goolsbee emphasizes that the current economic conditions do not mirror the stagflation experienced in the 1970s, suggesting a more stable outlook for the economy [1] Inflation and Employment - There is a recognized risk that both inflation and employment could worsen at the same time, highlighting potential challenges ahead for economic stability [1]