Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant rebound on December 17, with the trading volume of the CSI A500 ETF reaching 52.575 billion yuan, which is three times the combined trading volume of the CSI 300 ETFs at 16.95 billion yuan. The market is expected to consolidate and prepare for a spring rally, supported by global liquidity easing and positive domestic macro policies [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The top five CSI A500 ETFs led the market with a total trading volume of 45.291 billion yuan, while four leading CSI 300 ETFs had a combined trading volume of 8.08 billion yuan [1]. - The overall trading volume for all A500 ETFs reached 52.575 billion yuan, significantly outpacing the CSI 300 ETFs' total of 16.95 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to perform well in the coming year due to favorable conditions such as global liquidity easing, positive domestic macro policy statements, and geopolitical dynamics [1]. - Investors are encouraged to use broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) and adopt a "technology + dividend" barbell strategy for asset allocation [1].

此外，A500ETF也出现天量成交。 截至收盘，5只A500ETF领跑市场，合计成交额达452.91亿元，其中，华泰柏瑞A500ETF成交额达141.18 亿元，华夏A500ETF以97.54亿元次之，南方、国泰、易方达旗下A500ETF成交额紧随其后。排名第6的 是华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF，全天成交50.79亿元，4只头部沪深300ETF合计成交额为80.8亿元。 | A500ETF华泰柏瑞 | 1.234 | 1.90% | 141.18亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 563360 | | | | | A500ETF基金 | 1.161 | 1.75% | 97.54亿 | | ■ 512050 | | | | | A500ETF南方 | 1.215 | 1.93% | 80.61亿 | | ■ 159352 | | | | | 中证A500ETF | 1.169 | 2.01% | 73.57亿 | | 159338 | | | | | 沪深300ETF | 4.699 | 1.71% | 50.79亿 | | 胜 510300 | | | | | 创业板ETF | ...

周二A股继续缩量调整，沪指已接近3800点。 12月16日，截至收盘，上证综指跌1.11%，报3824.81点；科创50指数跌1.94%，深证成指跌1.51%，创业板指跌2.1%。沪深两市成交总额进一步降至 17242亿元。 港股方面周二同步回撤，尤其是午后，恒生科技指数跌幅突然加大，恒生指数跌幅扩大至2%，最终收跌1.54%，恒生科技指数一度跌超2.5%，最终 收跌1.74%。 而对于港股市场，华泰柏瑞基金指出，美联储后续降息路径不确定性的提升引发美债利率上行，叠加近在眼前的日央行议息会议目前有较高概率加 息25基点，若加息落地，可能导致借日元投资港股的资金回流日本，或令港股在外部流动性上缺乏支撑。 但前述券商投顾也表示，由于沪指60分钟及120分钟级别有macd底背离结构，再跌后又将和11月21日一样出现短中期情绪冰点共振现象，所以再跌 后容易迎来情绪面修复，届时要观察修复力度及具体K线形态来判断是否止跌企稳，求稳的投资者最好再耐心等一等。 外部情绪传导与内部资金止盈的双重冲击 对于市场近期表现低迷，广发基金分析道，其原因或在于外部情绪传导与内部资金止盈的双重冲击。一是上周五至本周一美股AI科技股大跌，市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with major indices hitting recent lows, driven by a drop in large tech and financial stocks, while some sectors like aviation and cosmetics showed resilience [1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.41%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.91%, losing nearly 500 points [1] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both reached recent low points, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1] Sector Analysis - Large technology stocks, major financial stocks (including banks, insurance, and brokerage firms), and state-owned enterprises collectively pressured the market [1] - Conversely, sectors such as gold, semiconductors, oil, and automotive stocks experienced declines, while some aviation and cosmetics stocks performed well [1] ETF Performance - The Hang Seng ETF (159920) fell over 2% by midday, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF (159850) dropped more than 2.5%, indicating a continued opening of low-position investment opportunities [1] Future Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the current dollar liquidity issues are short-term disturbances, and the AI wave is not over, suggesting that a bull market for Hong Kong stocks may still be possible after adjustments [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates that seasonal allocation characteristics of southbound funds could support a spring rally in Hong Kong stocks, making the upcoming spring market worth watching [1] Investment Focus - Guotai Junan Securities highlights that technology stocks driven by AI remain the main theme for the Hong Kong market, with leading tech stocks expected to regain relative advantages as the AI industry cycle trends upward [1] - The Hong Kong market's dividend benefits from strengthened policies and low interest rates, along with the scarcity of new consumption and innovative pharmaceutical assets compared to A-shares, are also worth attention [1] Notable Investment Targets - Core broad-based Hong Kong stock: Hang Seng ETF (159920) [1] - AI and platform economy: Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [1] - Focus on the development of Chinese enterprises in Hong Kong: Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF (159850) [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound after a recent decline, with major indices closing in the green: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.41%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.84%, ChiNext Index up 0.97%, and the Northbound 50 up 0.31% [1] - The total market turnover reached 2.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 233.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Regulatory Impact - Recent news regarding new trading regulations, including delayed trading reports and the requirement for brokers to clear all client-specific devices within three months, has raised concerns about trading fairness and system stability, particularly affecting quantitative trading [1][2] - If the regulatory measures targeting quantitative trading are implemented, it could significantly enhance market trading fairness, which is viewed as a long-term positive for the market [2] Market Sentiment - Following three consecutive days of decline, the market entered an oversold territory, leading to a natural rebound as short-sellers' strength weakened [4] - The increase in trading volume, surpassing 2.1 trillion yuan, indicates that bottom-fishing capital is becoming active, suggesting potential for continued market rebound if volume remains stable [4] Economic Context - Recent significant events include the Central Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, which set the tone for economic policies in 2026, emphasizing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [5] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has also contributed to market volatility, but the market may enter a chaotic phase as these events unfold [5] Investment Strategy - As the year-end approaches, the market typically experiences tighter liquidity, making operations more challenging; investors with low risk tolerance are advised to manage their positions carefully [6] - A balanced investment strategy focusing on sectors such as commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, and consumer goods is recommended, allowing for both offensive and defensive positioning in response to market conditions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index shows a slight increase, with notable gains in key constituent stocks, reflecting a stable market environment amid industrial growth and potential policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 15, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index rose by 0.13%, with significant increases in stocks such as China Merchants Energy (up 4.77%) and Ping An Insurance (up 4.62%) [1]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund increased by 0.17%, with the latest price reported at 1.2 yuan [1]. Group 2: Industrial Growth - In November, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, driven by advancements in the equipment manufacturing sector [1]. - The equipment manufacturing industry saw a robust growth of 7.7% in added value year-on-year, contributing 56.4% to the overall industrial growth [1]. Group 3: Investment Insights - According to AVIC Securities, the market may remain stable towards the end of the year, with a focus on the impact of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan on global liquidity [1]. - Recommendations include a balanced allocation between dividend and technology styles, with attention to industries that may experience marginal catalysts, anticipating a "spring rally" [1]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The Shanghai 180 Index consists of 180 securities selected for their large market capitalization and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies in the Shanghai market [2]. - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 26.13% of the index, including major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance [2].

向阳花开，乘势而上——2026 年 A 股年度策略 20251214 摘要 2025 年市场由流动性驱动，万得全 A 指数上涨 25%，估值提升贡献 20%，盈利支撑仅占 5%，主要受益于国家队支撑、险资流入及居民存 款转移等增量资金。 预计 2026 年 PPI 将回升，中性预期下年底或达-0.7 左右，与全 A 非金 融企业盈利增速和 ROE 一致，盈利增速有望达 10%左右。 PPI 弱回升情境下，沪深 300 指数 ERP 可能降至负一倍标准差，对应指 数涨幅约 10%，即从 4,000 点涨至 4,500 点左右。 微观流动性依赖外资和居民存款搬家，外资回流受限，需依赖银行理财 到期及收益率下行吸引居民资金入市，券商启动是关键。 券商板块对引导散户资金入市至关重要，券商股短期快速上涨通常伴随 市场中小单净流入量占比提升，预计 2026 年一季度可能重现。 2026 年一季度是全年确定性最强窗口，政策发力、经济预期乐观、流 动性宽松及事件催化，是布局净值最佳时机，下半年市场或震荡。 春季躁动行情或提前至 2025 年底至 2026 年 1 月上旬，成长风格胜率 高，关注软件、传媒中的游戏、机器人、创新 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in market performance between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with A-shares showing resilience due to positive signals from the Central Economic Work Conference, while Hong Kong stocks are pressured by weak earnings expectations and rising US Treasury yields [7][18][21] - The report notes that despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, US Treasury yields have recently increased, indicating that the liquidity environment may not be as favorable as expected, which could affect market risk appetite [9][14][19] - The upcoming "super data week" is crucial for validating the effectiveness of the Fed's easing policies and assessing inflation risks, with November CPI and employment data being particularly significant [19][20] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the Bank of Japan will likely resume its interest rate hike cycle, which could lead to concerns about capital outflows and increased volatility in the market, although the impact is expected to be manageable due to prior market pricing [20][21] - The report suggests that the upcoming spring market rally is likely, driven by improved micro liquidity and risk appetite, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [25][29] - Investment recommendations include maintaining a core position in financial sectors with stable earnings and high dividend yields, while gradually shifting towards sectors with reasonable valuations and clear industry trends, particularly in the AI chain, renewable energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [25][26][29]

Group 1 - The core idea of the report is to construct a strategy for convertible bonds based on the premium rate, focusing on identifying bonds with a premium rate that is "easy to rise and hard to fall" [1][9] - The report suggests that convertible bonds with a premium rate below 2% are more likely to experience a rebound to above 10%, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][9] - Factors influencing the rise in premium rates include the probability of strong redemption announcements and the overall market sentiment towards equities, which can affect individual bond premium levels [1][10] Group 2 - The report highlights specific sectors and companies to focus on, including technology and high-end manufacturing, driven by increasing overseas computing power demand and domestic AI industrialization [2][17] - Recommendations for convertible bonds include those from companies like Ruike, Huanyu, and Xinfeng in the technology sector, and Tianneng, Yake, and Daimai in the high-end manufacturing sector [2][17] - The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains optimistic, which supports the valuation of convertible bonds and suggests a potential "spring rally" in early 2026 [17]

Group 1 - The overall market is supported by funds and policies, indicating an upward trend, with expectations for a bull market in A-shares next year due to valuation support and stable earnings [2][5] - The anticipated easing of geopolitical risks and renewed expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may lead to a pre-season rally in A-shares, with key factors being the gradual implementation of China-US policy expectations [2][5] - Huabao Fund has launched three major broad-based ETFs tracking the CSI A-series indices, providing diverse options for investors to gain exposure to the Chinese market [2][5] Group 2 - The trading volume in the two markets reached 1.78 trillion yuan, a decrease of 125.4 billion yuan from the previous day, with 2,844 stocks declining and 1 stock remaining flat [5] - The top three sectors for net capital inflow were real estate, commercial retail, and non-ferrous metals, with inflows of 1.202 billion yuan, 1.226 billion yuan, and 1.026 billion yuan respectively [5]