Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's latest report indicates that while global trade showed strong performance in the first half of the year, the outlook for the second half and into 2026 is pessimistic due to rising tariffs and increased trade policy uncertainty [1] Group 1: Global Trade Performance - Global merchandise trade volume is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, but the growth rate is expected to drop to 0.5% in 2026, primarily due to trade policy uncertainty [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. imports surged beyond expectations as companies stockpiled goods in anticipation of future tariff increases, leading to a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global merchandise trade volume [2] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence Trade Growth - Trade in artificial intelligence-related goods grew by over 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing other goods and becoming a key driver of trade growth [3] - The growth in AI-related trade is attributed to investments in digital infrastructure and includes contributions from both developed and emerging markets, with East Asia remaining a major supply chain hub [3] Group 3: Service Trade Trends - Global service trade grew by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from the double-digit growth seen in 2023 and 2024, with expectations of continued deceleration due to global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions [4] - Despite the current slowdown, there is optimism for long-term growth in service trade, particularly as emerging markets develop and demand for digital services increases [4] Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Trade policy uncertainty impacts global trade by affecting business investment, consumer spending, supply chain stability, and trade costs, leading to a potential decline in trade growth [4] Group 5: Recommendations for Trade Development - To address the challenges facing global trade, measures such as enhancing trade policy transparency, coordinating trade policies, and supporting developing countries' trade competitiveness are recommended [5] - Promoting digital economy development and green trade initiatives are also suggested to facilitate trade and ensure sustainable growth [5]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's latest report indicates that while global trade showed strong performance in the first half of the year, the outlook for the second half and into 2026 is pessimistic due to rising tariffs and increased trade policy uncertainty [1] Group 1: Global Trade Performance - Global merchandise trade volume is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, but the growth rate is expected to drop to 0.5% in 2026, primarily due to trade policy uncertainty [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. imports surged beyond expectations as companies stockpiled goods in anticipation of future tariff increases, leading to a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global merchandise trade volume [2] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence Trade Growth - Trade in artificial intelligence-related goods grew by over 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing other goods and becoming a key driver of trade growth [3] - The growth in AI-related trade is attributed to investments in digital infrastructure and includes contributions from both developed and emerging markets, with East Asia remaining a major supply chain hub [3] Group 3: Service Trade Trends - Global service trade grew by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, a slowdown compared to previous years, with expectations of continued deceleration in 2025 and 2026 due to economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions [4] - Despite the current slowdown, there is optimism for long-term growth in service trade, particularly driven by the development of the digital economy and increasing demand from emerging markets [4] Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Trade policy uncertainty impacts global trade by affecting business investment, consumer spending, supply chain stability, and trade costs, leading to a more cautious approach from companies [4] Group 5: Recommendations for Trade Development - To address the challenges facing global trade, measures such as enhancing trade policy transparency, improving policy coordination, and supporting developing countries' trade competitiveness are recommended [5] - Promoting digital economy development and green trade initiatives are also suggested to facilitate trade and ensure sustainable growth [5]

Domestic Policy News - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of women's development at the Global Women's Summit, highlighting women's roles as creators and transmitters of civilization [9] - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, focused on reducing logistics costs and promoting green trade during a recent meeting, aiming to enhance the modern logistics system [10][11] - The Ministry of Finance announced a limit of 500 billion yuan for local government debt to support the resolution of existing debts and promote effective investment [21] International Policy News - The IMF projected a 3.2% growth for the global economy in 2025, while noting signs of a significant slowdown in the US economy [16][20] - The recent IMF and World Bank meetings highlighted concerns over rising trade tensions and their potential impact on global economic stability [19] Equity Market Analysis - The A-share market saw a slight decline, with the ChiNext and CSI 500 indices dropping over 5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 4.34% [22] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the Corporate Governance Code to enhance the governance standards of listed companies, effective January 1, 2026 [23][24] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 69.79 billion yuan in the open market, maintaining liquidity above 1.4% [40] - The Ministry of Finance's announcement to allocate 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits aims to support local fiscal stability and effective investment [42] Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals declined, while precious metals saw a rebound; the overall commodity market showed mixed trends post-holiday [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines to support energy-saving and carbon reduction investments in key industries [11] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The US dollar index weakened to 98.56, while the Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.13, reflecting a 0.29% weekly increase [4] - The central bank emphasized the market's decisive role in exchange rate formation, amid ongoing trade tensions with the US [4]

Core Viewpoint - Developing green trade is a crucial measure to optimize trade, achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, and accelerate the construction of a strong trading nation [1] Group 1: Policy and Institutional Framework - The State Council meeting emphasized the need to accelerate the improvement of the green trade policy system and enhance the green and low-carbon development capabilities of foreign trade enterprises [1][2] - Strengthening the coordination of policies related to industry, technology, finance, and taxation is essential for creating a favorable environment for green trade development [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Growth - In the first three quarters of this year, China's exports of high-end equipment closely related to new quality productivity increased by 22.4%, with double-digit growth in green products such as wind turbine units and railway electric locomotives [1] - The development of green trade is becoming a new trend in international trade, contributing to sustainable economic development [2] Group 3: Role of Enterprises - Enterprises play a vital role in the green trade development process, with a focus on enhancing their green and low-carbon development capabilities [2] - The proposed measures will empower foreign trade enterprises in areas such as information acquisition, production operations, and market expansion, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises [2] Group 4: International Standards and Competitiveness - Expanding the import and export of related products and technologies, and establishing a green low-carbon product, technology, and service standard system in line with international practices are crucial for enhancing core competitiveness [2] - Adapting quickly to changes in overseas market demands by increasing the supply of green products will help activate new momentum in green trade and enhance the resilience of China's foreign trade development [2]

Group 1: Logistics Cost Reduction - The meeting emphasized the importance of logistics in facilitating domestic circulation and developing a modern industrial system, calling for continuous efforts to reduce costs and improve quality in logistics [1] - It was proposed to accelerate the construction of a modern logistics system that is safe, efficient, and integrates digital infrastructure, while also enhancing multi-modal transport management [1] - Investment in logistics warehousing facilities will be increased, with a focus on optimizing layout and functionality, as well as promoting the integration of artificial intelligence in logistics [1] Group 2: Green Trade Development - The development of green trade is identified as a key measure to optimize trade, achieve carbon neutrality goals, and build a strong trade nation [2] - There is a call to enhance the green low-carbon development capabilities of foreign trade enterprises and to establish a public service platform for green trade [2] - The meeting highlighted the need to strengthen international communication and establish standards for green low-carbon products and technologies [2] Group 3: Agricultural Production - The meeting noted that grain production is expected to achieve another bumper harvest this year, with sufficient supply of essential agricultural products [2] - Emphasis was placed on strengthening collaboration among departments to ensure effective autumn harvest and planting, as well as stabilizing the supply and price of agricultural inputs [2] - Support for market entities to increase purchasing efforts and the use of agricultural disaster relief funds was also discussed [2] Group 4: Environmental Monitoring - The establishment of a modern ecological environment monitoring system was prioritized, including the development of an integrated monitoring network and improved data quality management [2] Group 5: National Emblem Usage - The meeting underscored the importance of the national emblem as a symbol of the state, advocating for strict adherence to regulations regarding its use in international exchanges [2]

Group 1: Logistics and Supply Chain - The meeting emphasized the importance of logistics in facilitating domestic circulation and developing a modern industrial system, calling for continuous efforts to reduce costs and improve efficiency in logistics [1] - There is a push to accelerate the construction of a modern logistics system that is safe, efficient, and integrates digital infrastructure, with a focus on enhancing multi-modal transport management [1] - Increased investment in logistics warehousing facilities is necessary, along with the optimization of layout and functionality to support the logistics sector [1] Group 2: Green Trade Development - The development of green trade is identified as a key measure to optimize trade, achieve carbon neutrality goals, and build a strong trading nation [2] - There is a need to enhance the green low-carbon development capabilities of foreign trade enterprises and promote green design and production practices [2] - Establishing a standard system for green low-carbon products, technologies, and services that aligns with international standards is a priority [2] Group 3: Agricultural Production - The meeting noted that grain production is expected to achieve another bumper harvest this year, with sufficient supply of essential agricultural products [2] - Emphasis was placed on strengthening collaboration among departments to ensure effective autumn harvest and planting, while maintaining the supply and price stability of agricultural inputs [2] - Support for market-oriented entities to increase procurement efforts is crucial to safeguard farmers' income [2] Group 4: Environmental Monitoring - There is a call to accelerate the establishment of a modern ecological environment monitoring system, enhancing the integration of monitoring networks across various domains [3] - The meeting highlighted the need for improved monitoring standards and data quality management to support ecological civilization and the construction of a beautiful China [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed performance in the market, with a focus on the long-term growth potential despite short-term fluctuations [3][23]. Core Insights - The North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 16.56 billion yuan on October 17, a decrease of 1.181 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1432.87, down 3.75% [8][3]. - The report highlights the importance of the North Exchange in supporting innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, with a total of 279 listed companies and a market capitalization exceeding 860 billion yuan [3][19]. - The report emphasizes the structural opportunities in sectors such as semiconductors, energy equipment, and high-end manufacturing, driven by policy incentives and industrial upgrades [3][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On October 17, the North Exchange A-share trading volume was 16.56 billion yuan, down 1.181 billion yuan from the previous day, with the North Exchange 50 Index down 3.75% and a PE_TTM of 67.43 times [8][3]. - Among 279 companies, 21 saw an increase, 3 remained flat, and 255 experienced declines, with notable gainers including Litong Technology (15.5%) and Tian Gang Co. (8.1%) [16][3]. Important News - The State Council meeting emphasized enhancing the green and low-carbon development capabilities of foreign trade enterprises, promoting green design and production [19][3]. Key Company Announcements - Guangzi International announced the use of up to 30 million yuan of idle raised funds for cash management, with an unexpired balance of 15 million yuan in wealth management products [20]. - Lin Tai New Materials reported a change in the amount of idle self-owned funds for wealth management to 150 million yuan, with an unexpired balance of 102 million yuan [21]. - Anhui Phoenix disclosed a total amount of up to 150 million yuan for self-owned funds in wealth management, with an unexpired balance of 148 million yuan [22].

Group 1: Logistics Cost Reduction - The meeting emphasized the importance of logistics in facilitating domestic circulation and developing a modern industrial system, calling for continuous efforts to reduce costs and improve efficiency in logistics [1] - There is a push to accelerate the construction of a modern logistics system that is safe, efficient, and integrates digital infrastructure, with a focus on enhancing multi-modal transport management [1] - Increased investment in logistics facilities and support for small and micro logistics enterprises is highlighted as essential for strengthening the logistics sector [1] Group 2: Green Trade Development - The development of green trade is identified as a key measure to optimize trade, achieve carbon neutrality goals, and build a strong trading nation [2] - The meeting called for the establishment of a comprehensive policy framework for green trade, enhancing collaboration with various sectors such as industry, technology, and finance [2] - There is an emphasis on improving the green and low-carbon development capabilities of foreign trade enterprises and establishing a public service platform for green trade [2] Group 3: Agricultural Production - The meeting noted that coordinated efforts in grain production across regions are expected to yield a good harvest this year, ensuring sufficient supply of essential agricultural products [2] - It stressed the importance of maintaining a bottom-line mindset and enhancing inter-departmental cooperation to support autumn harvest and planting [2] - The use of agricultural disaster relief funds and insurance claims is encouraged to mitigate losses for farmers [2] Group 4: Environmental Monitoring - The establishment of a modern ecological environment monitoring system is prioritized, with a focus on integrating monitoring networks and improving data quality management [2] Group 5: National Emblem Regulations - The meeting discussed the importance of the national emblem as a symbol of the state, emphasizing the need for strict adherence to regulations regarding its use in international exchanges [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a forecast of the futures market on October 20, 2025, based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis. It predicts the likely trends (such as strong - side or weak - side oscillations) and support and resistance levels for various futures contracts across different sectors, including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures. It also presents the performance of these futures on October 17, 2025, and offers a monthly outlook for October 2025 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast for October 20, 2025 - Stock index futures (IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512) are expected to oscillate strongly. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4550 and 4600 points and support levels at 4455 and 4400 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year bond futures (T2512, TL2512) are likely to have wide - range oscillations. T2512 has resistance at 108.32 and 108.43 yuan and support at 108.17 and 108.13 yuan [2]. - Gold and silver futures (AU2512, AG2512) are expected to oscillate weakly. AU2512 may test support levels at 960.0 and 949.5 yuan/gram [2]. - Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, tin, and other base metal futures have different expected trends. For instance, copper futures (CU2512) are likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 85600 and 86400 yuan/ton and support at 84400 and 83800 yuan/ton [3]. - Energy futures such as crude oil (SC2512) and fuel oil (FU2601) are expected to oscillate strongly. SC2512 may attack resistance levels at 446 and 450 yuan/barrel [7]. - Agricultural futures like bean粕 (M2601) and palm oil (P2601) are also expected to oscillate strongly. M2601 may attack resistance at 2914 and 2926 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Performance on October 17, 2025 - Stock index futures generally showed weak oscillations. For example, IF2512 closed at 4485.2 points, down 2.19% [16]. - Bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.74% to 115.870 yuan [40]. - Gold futures showed strong oscillations during the day but weak oscillations at night. The main contract AU2512 closed at 999.80 yuan/gram during the day, up 3.82%, and 973.88 yuan/gram at night, down 1.27% [46]. - Silver futures also had a similar pattern. The main contract AG2512 closed at 12249 yuan/kilogram during the day, up 2.06%, and 11748 yuan/kilogram at night, down 3.94% [52]. 3. Monthly Outlook for October 2025 - Stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) are likely to have weak wide - range oscillations. For example, IF is expected to have support at 4307 and 4200 points and resistance at 4750 and 4850 points [23]. - Gold and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly. Gold futures may attack resistance at 1000.0 and 1100.0 yuan/gram [49]. - Copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures have different expected trends. Copper futures are expected to have strong wide - range oscillations with resistance at 89000 and 90000 yuan/ton [61]. - Energy futures such as crude oil are expected to oscillate weakly and may test support at 417 and 395 yuan/barrel [124]. 4. Macro - economic Information - China - US economic and trade officials held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [9]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and maintain financial market stability [9]. - The Ministry of Finance announced measures to consolidate and expand the economic recovery, including allocating 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments [11]. - The national fiscal revenue in the first three quarters was 16.39 trillion yuan, up 0.5% year - on - year, and the fiscal expenditure was 20.81 trillion yuan, up 3.1% year - on - year [11].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market updates. It indicates that the economy is generally stable with some positive signs, but also faces challenges such as trade uncertainties and potential risks in the financial market. The bond market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern, while the stock market is expected to have long - term upward momentum with short - term adjustments [17][20][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, showing a slight improvement. The growth rate of social financing scale and M1, M2 money supply had changes, and the CPI and PPI were still in the negative range [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Sino - US economic and trade consultations are expected to resume. The US government is relaxing some tariff policies. The trading rules of gold and silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange will be adjusted. Analysts expect the LPR to remain flat in October with potential for future cuts, and the US will extend the tariff credit arrangement for auto parts imports [2][3]. Metals - International precious metal futures generally declined, and the base metal market may oscillate widely. Gold has increased by over 60% this year, and there are different views on its future trend. Silver prices have also risen significantly, with a nearly 70% increase this year. Some domestic and Japanese precious metal prices have reached new highs, and some companies plan to raise prices [5][6][7]. Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - The National Energy Administration aims to promote the high - quality development of coal washing, and the US Treasury Secretary urges the World Bank to fund various energy sources including coal [11]. Energy and Chemicals - China has achieved multiple breakthroughs in the energy field. The new regulations on the fair opening of oil and gas pipeline networks will be implemented. India's oil imports from Russia have increased, and Egypt will freeze domestic fuel prices [12]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. On October 17, the central bank conducted 164.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion yuan on that day [16]. Important News - Sino - US economic and trade consultations are expected to resume. The US government is relaxing tariff policies, and the US president admits that high - tariff strategies are unsustainable. Analysts expect the LPR to remain flat in October. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The government will promote green trade and agricultural production, and the financial situation shows a stable and upward trend [17][18][20]. Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market strengthened, with yields of long - term bonds declining. Bond futures rose, and the inter - bank market funds were stable and loose. The bond market is affected by policy expectations and stock market fluctuations and is in an oscillatory pattern [26]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined, and the US dollar index rose, with most non - US currencies falling [31]. Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the bond and stock markets. Generally, the bond market is expected to oscillate, and the stock market is expected to have long - term upward momentum with short - term adjustments [32][33]. 4. Stock Market Important News - As of October 19, 2025, the number of newly established funds this year has exceeded that of 2024, with stock - type funds reaching a 15 - year high in terms of new establishment and issuance scale. The ETF market has seen significant capital inflows, and two capital - market monetary policy tools have effectively boosted market confidence [37][38].