新华财经伦敦2月4日电 伦敦金属交易所基本金属价格4日收盘时普遍下跌。 截至当天收盘，3个月期铜收于每吨13040.00美元，比前一个交易日的收盘价每吨下跌370.00美元，跌幅 2.76%。 3个月期铝收于每吨3059.00美元，比前一交易日的收盘价每吨下跌40.00美元，跌幅为1.29%。 3个月期镍收于每吨17330.00美元，比前一个交易日的收盘价每吨下跌65.00美元，跌幅为0.37%。 3个月期锡收于每吨48360.00美元，比前一交易日的收盘价每吨下跌1935.00美元，跌幅为3.85%。 3个月期锌收于每吨3305.50美元，比前一交易日的收盘价每吨下跌17.50美元，跌幅为0.53%。 分析来看，当日美元指数小幅走强，给以美元计价的基本金属带来压力。 （文章来源：新华财经） 3个月期铅收于每吨1967.00美元，比前一交易日的收盘价每吨上涨5.50美元，涨幅为0.28%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver prices are experiencing a downward trend, currently trading below 22,443 yuan per kilogram, with a decline of 0.94% from the opening price of 23,493 yuan per kilogram [1] - The US dollar index is hovering near a one-week high, making silver more expensive for investors holding other currencies, which directly suppresses overseas buying demand [2] - The ISM report shows that the US non-manufacturing PMI remained steady at 53.8 in January, with rising input costs raising concerns about potential inflation in the service sector, providing temporary support for the dollar [2] Group 2 - The silver market has shown volatility, with prices recovering some losses but currently experiencing a decline of over 2%, indicating ongoing bearish risks [3] - Key support levels for silver are identified between 20,500 and 21,500, while resistance levels are noted between 23,500 and 24,500 [3] - The one-hour MACD is approaching zero, indicating a potential shift in trend, while the RSI remains neutral, suggesting that the bearish trend is still present [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The copper price has experienced a significant decline, with LME copper closing at $13,040 per ton, down $370 or 2.76% [1] - The Shanghai copper futures market also saw a drop, with the main contract closing at ¥102,590 per ton, down ¥2,330 or 2.22% [1] - The increase in LME copper inventory by 2,525 tons to 178,650 tons, a rise of 1.43%, has added pressure to copper prices [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. ADP employment data for January showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 48,000 and the revised December figure of 37,000, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [2] - The strong performance of the U.S. dollar has raised the cost of copper for investors holding non-U.S. currencies, suppressing speculative demand [2] - Technical adjustments in the market have also contributed to the price decline, as investors took profits after a rapid price increase [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There are bullish factors in the copper market, including ongoing closures and production disruptions in overseas mines, which may tighten copper supply [3] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain at historically low levels, while global energy transition and AI demand are expected to support long-term copper demand [3] - Despite these bullish factors, the market is experiencing volatility from the precious metals sector, which is affecting copper prices [3] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is leading to increased copper inventory accumulation domestically, with downstream enterprises reducing purchases due to high prices and lower operating rates in copper rod production [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar index is maintaining a strong position due to cautious pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with the index rebounding from a low of 95.36 to over 220 points, reaching a high of 97.605 before entering a consolidation phase [1] - The resilience of the US labor market and the slow pace of inflation decline have not yet reached the threshold for the Federal Reserve to consider easing, leading to a significant correction in previous rapid rate cut expectations [1] - The divergence in monetary policies among major global economies, such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, has contributed to the relative strength of the US dollar, highlighting its safe-haven attributes and yield advantages [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the dollar index has established a critical support level at 97.00, which is reinforced by short-term moving averages and previous trading volume, indicating a significant bullish defense [2] - The short-term trading range is identified between 96.84 and 98.66, with the Bollinger Bands indicating a phase of consolidation, suggesting that a strong signal is needed to break the current pattern [2] - Key variables to monitor include upcoming US CPI and non-farm payroll data, which could solidify the high-rate maintenance logic, and the Federal Reserve's policy statements, which will influence market sentiment and the dollar index's trajectory [2]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices is notable, with the Dow comprising traditional sectors like technology, automotive, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure, which are characterized by lower valuations and positions [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The strengthening of the US dollar index is beneficial for manufacturing sectors, as their products are priced in dollars [1]. - Historical data shows that in 2024, there was a significant capital inflow into the Dow Jones, similar to events in 2024 [4]. - The last time Apple outperformed Nvidia was when the dollar index rose from 100 to 110, reflecting a two-month lag in market response [6]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The SaaS sector in the US saw a strong performance from September to November 2024, with a 29% increase during a period when Nvidia did not rise [7]. - Recently, the SaaS sector has faced challenges due to dollar depreciation affecting revenue and concerns over AI impacting software companies, leading to a quantifiable sell-off [7]. - The stabilization of the dollar has led to a recovery trend in the SaaS sector after facing multiple pressures [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In late 2024, domestic focus will likely shift towards local state-owned enterprise reforms, with no clear main themes emerging during that period [9].

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.25% to 97.63, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - Most non-US currencies experienced a decline, with the euro falling by 0.12% to 1.1805 against the dollar [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.33% to 1.3653 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar dropped by 0.35% to 0.6998 [1] Group 2 - The US dollar appreciated by 0.72% against the Japanese yen, reaching 156.9095 [1] - The dollar rose by 0.16% against the Canadian dollar, with a rate of 1.3665 [1] - The dollar also gained 0.29% against the Swiss franc, reaching 0.7775 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index and Bloomberg Dollar Index both experienced gains, indicating a strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies during the trading session on February 4th. Group 1: ICE Dollar Index - The ICE Dollar Index rose by 0.21%, closing at 97.640 points, with an intraday trading range of 97.309 to 97.730 points [1] - The index showed a continuous upward trend from 16:00 to 01:00 Beijing time [1] Group 2: Bloomberg Dollar Index - The Bloomberg Dollar Index increased by 0.33%, reaching 1191.55 points, with an intraday trading range of 1187.30 to 1192.37 points [1] - Similar to the ICE index, the Bloomberg index also maintained a rising trend since 16:00 [1]

技术走势上，美元指数日线级别布林带持续收敛，价格运行于中轨下方，短期存在明确阻力区间与支撑 位。相关技术指标显示多空动能均偏弱，反弹力度受限，短线仍以区间震荡为主。交叉汇率方面，非美 货币表现强势，进一步压缩美指上行空间。 后市来看，美元指数中期方向将由两大核心变量主导：一是美国经济数据表现，若数据验证经济韧性， 将强化美联储鹰派立场，助力美指突破阻力区间；二是中东地缘局势的后续演变，若冲突再度升级，避 险买盘或重新推升美元。短期美指大概率维持区间震荡格局，市场需等待明确的数据与事件信号，打破 当前多空对峙的平衡。 美联储近期表态持续释放政策定力信号，多位官员强调短期内暂不启动降息，叠加相关鹰派人选的政策 倾向，进一步巩固市场对高利率维持周期的预期。美债收益率企稳回升，为美元指数构筑坚实底部支 撑，成为多头核心依托，持续支撑美指避免大幅下行。 地缘层面，美伊局势缓和推动避险情绪逐步消退，此前流入美元的避险资金出现分流，一定程度抵消了 美联储政策面的利好支撑。中东地缘风险溢价回落同步传导至大宗商品市场，美元与大宗商品的负相关 效应显现，对美指上行形成明显牵制。 近期，美元指数延续窄幅整理走势，多空力量在政策预期 ...

【大河财立方消息】2月4日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.9533，上调75点，升值至2023年5月16日以来最 高。 责编:陈玉尧 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 兴业研究指出，美元指数下行动能尚未完全释放，短线贬值放缓，但上半年仍有下行空间，有望在93- 96密集成交区间内寻找支撑。未来若就业数据走弱、美联储降息预期前置，美元指数或进一步破位下 行。 ...

2月3日，上海国际能源交易中心发布公告称，自2026年2月5日收盘结算时起，原油、低硫燃料油及20号 胶期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度统一调整为9%，套期保值持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%，一般持 仓交易保证金比例调整为11%。分析人士提醒，交易者应密切关注市场动态，合理控制仓位，做好风险 防范措施。 物产中大（600704）期货研究院院长助理谢雯认为，内盘原油期货价格大跌，主要原因是地缘政治风险 降温。本周，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬下令同美国启动核谈判，美国总统特朗普称正在与伊朗接触。同时， 1月底美国天然气期货价格暴涨对原油价格有所提振，但美国与欧洲的天气预报显示气温将逐渐升高， 两地天然气期货价格本周也大幅回落。因此，在地缘局势缓和和欧美地区气温回升的背景下，先前押注 原油价格上涨的资金逐渐撤出。 继周一跌停后，昨日上海原油期货主力合约再度大跌。今天凌晨，国际油价收盘全线上涨。消息面上， 美国至1月30日当周API原油库存减少1107.9万桶，之前一周为增加24.7万桶。 对于下跌的持续性，隋晓影认为，随着利空情绪逐步释放，原油价格短期进一步下行的动力会减弱。后 续需要关注两方面因素：一是美伊谈判进展，若不及预 ...