来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月5日｜民生宏观研报称，我们倾向于本轮美元指数的突破相对7月会更"成功"——反弹的点位 可能会更高（101至103），持续的时间会更长，至少需要美国政府开门后，连续偏弱的经济硬数据来修 正市场的预期。但我们不认为美元的升值周期要来了，当前美元更多的只是反弹：短期内，市场已经开 始定价12月不降息（预期概率已经超过30%），这使得后续政策预期调整有较大的空间。此外，年底前 白宫将公布美联储主席人选，从热门的人选来看，政策区别只是在于"宽松"还是"极度宽松"，预计对于 美元都不是好消息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities indicates that the US dollar index is attempting to break above 100 for the second time this year, with expectations that this attempt may be more successful than the previous one in July, potentially reaching levels between 101 and 103 and lasting longer [1][14]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market environment is characterized by a lack of economic data, leading to a state of "autopilot" where concerns about hawkish comments from Powell exist without sufficient data to counter them [8]. - The previous attempt in July was influenced by strong economic data, which shifted market expectations from a "recession" to a "recovery" mode, while the current situation lacks such supportive data [5]. Group 2: External Influences - The driving forces behind the dollar's movements differ between the two attempts; in July, the British pound was the weakest among G7 currencies due to ongoing economic weakness, while currently, the Japanese yen is leading the decline due to its own political and economic challenges [9][12]. - The trade agreements between the US and Japan, which impose tariffs on Japanese goods while providing favorable terms to South Korea, have positioned Japan at a disadvantage compared to its regional counterparts [13]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Despite the current rebound in the dollar, Minsheng Securities does not foresee a long-term appreciation cycle for the dollar, viewing the current situation as a temporary rebound rather than a sustained increase [14]. - The market is beginning to price in a likelihood of no interest rate cuts in December, with expectations exceeding 30%, indicating potential adjustments in future policy expectations [14]. - The ongoing debt issues in the US and the potential for accelerated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve suggest that the dollar's long-term outlook remains uncertain, with significant implications for risk assets [18].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月4日纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.34%报100.21，非美货币多数下跌，欧元兑美元跌0.32% 报1.1482，英镑兑美元跌0.91%报1.3021，澳元兑美元跌0.75%报0.6489，美元兑日元跌0.35%报 153.6740，美元兑加元涨0.32%报1.4103，美元兑瑞郎涨0.31%报0.8106。 ...

Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.38%, reaching a daily high of 100.255 points during the New York trading session on November 4 [1] - At 15:42 Beijing time, the index slightly declined to 99.743 points before continuing to rise [1]

本报记者 韩昱 11月4日，美元指数盘中重回100关口，为今年8月份以来首次。拉长时间看，自9月中旬以来，美元指数 呈现出震荡回升的趋势，从96水平逐步拉升突破97、98、99整数关口，期间（9月15日至11月4日记者发 稿时）涨幅约为2.41%。 陕西巨丰投资资讯有限责任公司高级投资顾问丁臻宇在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，美元指数短 期或维持震荡偏强态势，但上行空间有限。一方面，美联储将于12月1日起结束缩表，宣告量化紧缩告 一段落，对美元流动性形成支撑；另一方面，美联储内部对降息路径存在分歧，政策决策的谨慎性可能 延缓美元走弱节奏。 从美元指数来看，明明认为，短期来看，美元指数走势主要取决于市场对于美联储降息路径的预期变动 和市场的风险情绪变动。若核心经济数据披露后美国经济表现低于预期，或推动美元指数走弱。 在今年连续两次降息后，除鲍威尔外，美联储官员近日也密集发声释放货币政策信号，但"鹰派""鸽 派"信号均有体现，内部对降息路径的分歧愈发明显。 "2026年美元指数大概率进入下行通道，长期承压趋势明确。"丁臻宇认为，核心逻辑在于市场对美国利 率的"重新定价"，美联储进入降息通道将对美元形成持续压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, breaking the critical support level of $3990, follows three months of continuous increases, raising concerns about the future trajectory of gold prices [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold was a leading asset this year, reaching historical highs in March, with a 47% surge in global investment demand in Q3, and Chinese investors purchasing 74 tons of gold, a 19% increase year-on-year [3]. - On November 3, gold prices dropped over 1% during U.S. trading hours, struggling to maintain the $4000 mark, and fell below $3990 on November 4, a significant level previously viewed as a "bullish lifeline" by many institutions [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The primary pressure on gold prices comes from the strengthening U.S. dollar, which surpassed the 100 mark on November 4 for the first time since August, as Federal Reserve officials expressed opposition to a rate cut in December, boosting confidence in the dollar [5]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has surged to 4.11%, offering higher returns without the volatility associated with gold, prompting large investors to withdraw from the gold market [6][7]. - A decrease in risk aversion due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, compounded by the lack of timely economic data releases due to the U.S. government shutdown, leading to increased gold sell-offs [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are likely to experience "volatile downward movement" due to the strong dollar and reduced likelihood of a December rate cut, with a potential drop to $3900 [11]. - However, the long-term outlook remains positive for gold, suggesting a "value return" despite the current "pressure test," depending on whether investors are focused on short-term trading or long-term positioning [11][13].

Group 1: Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index attempted to break 100 for the second time, with the first attempt occurring at the end of July 2025, followed by a significant drop due to disappointing non-farm payroll data on August 1[3] - The current macroeconomic environment differs significantly from July, with a lack of economic data and a hawkish stance from Powell leading to a "self-driving" market[4] - In July, the British pound experienced the largest decline among G7 currencies due to ongoing economic weakness in the UK, while this time the Japanese yen is leading the decline following Japan's monetary easing policies[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The current attempt to break 100 is expected to be more successful than in July, with potential for higher rebound points and longer duration[5] - However, the dollar is not entering a long-term appreciation cycle; it is merely experiencing a rebound[5] - Short-term market expectations are pricing in a greater than 30% probability of no interest rate cuts in December, indicating significant room for policy expectation adjustments[5] - The upcoming announcement of the Federal Reserve chair by the White House is anticipated to negatively impact the dollar[5] - Long-term, the Fed is still in a rate-cutting cycle, and ongoing U.S. debt issues alongside European fiscal measures remain critical concerns[5] - The dollar's rebound may assist in stabilizing gold and silver prices and help equity markets adjust to high valuations[5] - Risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies and unexpected tariff expansions that could lead to a global economic slowdown[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has led to an expectation of tight supply and demand. However, due to the hawkish shift in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and tight liquidity, the Shanghai tin price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract at high levels with a light position in the short term, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The Shanghai tin basis is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within the reasonable range. This is due to the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, leading to an expected tight supply, and a decline in the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad. However, with the hawkish shift in the Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, tight liquidity, and the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9]. - The LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are positive and within the reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is because the manufacturing PMI in Europe and the US in October was weak, and the inventory of refined tin in the LME is increasing but still at a relatively low level. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased compared to last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China has decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin in the LME has increased compared to last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has decreased compared to last week [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin ore has decreased, indicating an expected tight supply of domestic tin ore [19][20]. - The production (import) volume of domestic tin ore in November may increase month - on - month. Reasons include the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung by the Indonesian president, the commissioning of the second concentrator of the Uis mine in Namibia, the resumption of mining in Wa State, Myanmar, the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in the DRC, and the suspension of the transit export of Myanmar tin ore through Thailand [22][24]. - The production volume of recycled tin in China in November may increase month - on - month [25][26]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat) compared to last week; the production (inventory) volume of refined tin in China in November may increase (decrease) month - on - month [29]. - The import volume of refined tin in China in November may increase month - on - month. The export volume of refined tin from Indonesia is expected to increase, which may lead to an increase in China's refined tin imports [30][32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of tin solder in China in November [36]. - The import (export) volume of solder strips in China in November may decrease (increase) month - on - month [37][39]. - The production (import, export) volume of tin - plated sheets in China in November may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month [40]. - The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has decreased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may affect the demand for tin [42][44].

汇通财经APP讯——周二（11月4日）亚欧交易时段，美元指数走出冲高回落走势，盘中一度短暂涨超 100整数关口，之前该指数已连续第四个交易日上涨，目前交投于99.80附近。 当前美元指数的波动，正围绕美联储政策预期、美债收益率变动及美国国内风险事件展开，多空力量的 博弈让市场情绪始终保持谨慎。 据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具数据显示，当前联邦基金期货交易者对12月美联储降息的定价概率 已降至65%，较一周前的94%大幅回落。 这一概率变化的直接诱因，是上周美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上的表态——他明确指 出，12月再次降息的可能性远未确定，且强调在官方数据发布恢复前，政策制定者需维持"观望"态度。 10年期美债收益率持续异动支撑美元走强 周一市场中，10年期美国国债收益率上行2.7个基点，这一变动进一步强化了美元的利差优势，叠加鲍 威尔"12月降息非既定事实"的警告，共同为美元指数的涨势提供了延续性动力。 值得注意的是10月29日美国10年期国债收益率大涨10个基点，当天也是本次美元指数连续上涨的起点日 期。 美联储官员分歧表态或使美元指数来回拉扯 美联储谨慎预期与美债收益率助力美元多头 推动美 ...

第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金PPLI官网 一、近期走势分析 近期波动背景： 美联储政策压制：上周美联储释放"12月降息非板上钉钉"的鹰派信号，美元指数刷新近三个月高点（逼近100关口），直接打压黄金避险需求。 地缘与政治风险：美国政府停摆进入第34天（创历史纪录），经济数据发布受阻，市场对政策不确定性溢价增加，为金价提供底部支撑。 美联储政策预期： 市场对12月降息概率从70%降至65%，若非农数据（11月5日公布）显示就业市场韧性，鹰派预期或进一步强化，金价可能下探3900美元支撑。 美元与美债收益率： 美元走强及10年期美债收益率维持4.1%高位，压制黄金持有成本，但政府停摆可能削弱美元长期走强基础。 技术面关键位： 支撑位：3960美元（日内关键）、3900美元（中长期支撑） 阻力位：4030-4045美元（短期压力）、4080美元（突破后看4100美元） 技术面特征： 日线级别：金价围绕4000美元震荡，布林带收口，MACD死叉运行，RSI超买后回落，短期需警惕回调风险。 小时图：4小时布林带三轨放平，均线粘合，价格在3950-4045区间内震荡，关键阻力位4 ...