投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/26 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/24 | 2025/6/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 518. 6 | 508. 6 | -10.00 | 成交情况: | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1007. 3 | 1094. 0 | 86. 67 | PTA: PTA行情下跌,地缘局势缓和,市场预估原油续 跌,PTA行情下跌。PTA现货货少,现货基差仍然较强 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2673 | 1. 2960 | 0. 0287 | | | | CFR中国PX | 859 | 849 | -10 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 217 | 263 | 46 | | | | PTA主力 ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/25 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/24 | 美元/桶 | 64.37 | 68.51 | -6.04% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/24 | 美元/桶 | 67.14 | 71.48 | -6.07% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/6/24 | 美元/吨 | 586.25 | 641.75 | -8.65% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/6/24 | | 美元/吨 | 728.00 | 777.50 | -6.37% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/6/24 | 美元/吨 | 859.00 | 898.67 | -4.41% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/6/24 | 元/吨 | ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **chemical industry**, focusing on the **polyester supply chain**, **ethylene glycol**, **PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid)**, and **PX (Paraxylene)** markets, along with insights into **polypropylene** and **PVC** markets. Key Insights and Arguments Polyester Supply Chain - The polyester supply chain prices are influenced by multiple factors including costs, policies, and geopolitical issues. In April, prices dropped significantly due to cost declines, while in May, prices rebounded with tariff policy changes and oil price increases. In June, Middle Eastern conflicts led to rapid oil price increases, affecting upstream aromatic prices like PX and PTA, which subsequently raised downstream product prices significantly [1][3]. - Ethylene glycol's performance in the first half of 2025 was weak, primarily due to stable supply from coal-based production amid disrupted demand, leading to a relatively soft price trend [4]. - The price spread between PX and Brent crude oil was at a near five-year low in 2025, although it recovered slightly after tariff cancellations. Overall, PX valuations remain low due to weakened gasoline cracking margins and reduced demand for toluene and xylene [5]. PX and PTA Market Dynamics - The US demand for aromatics showed a decline in April and May, particularly in toluene and benzene imports from South Korea, leading to a seasonal demand drop in Asia [6]. - Polyester fiber operating rates decreased at the beginning of the year, but remained high during seasonal declines in PX and PTA operating rates, resulting in significant destocking effects in Q2 [7]. - PTA is expected to see increased production capacity in the second half of 2025, which may lead to inventory pressure, while PX has no new capacity planned for the year, relying on imports to maintain supply-demand balance [8]. Future Market Expectations - The PTA market is expected to face inventory accumulation due to increased production and weakened polyester demand, particularly from bottle-grade polyester [13]. - The PX market's performance is closely tied to oil prices and geopolitical stability. A potential easing of Middle Eastern tensions could lead to lower oil prices, impacting PX valuations negatively [9]. - The overall polyester industry is projected to see a decrease in operating rates by 3% to 4% in the second half of 2025, with significant reductions in bottle-grade polyester production anticipated [12]. Polypropylene and PVC Market Insights - The polypropylene market is currently in a bearish trend due to accelerated capacity expansion, weak demand, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Seasonal demand in the second half may provide some support, but supply pressures from new production remain a concern [2][23]. - The PVC market faces significant supply-demand pressures, with high levels of new capacity expected to come online, while domestic demand remains weak due to low construction activity [52][54]. Additional Important Points - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and macroeconomic policies, as these factors significantly influence market dynamics and pricing strategies across the chemical industry [20][61]. - The need for cautious optimism regarding PX imports and the overall supply-demand balance was emphasized, particularly in light of potential production disruptions and the impact of external market conditions [22][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the chemical industry, particularly in the polyester, polypropylene, and PVC markets.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The international oil price is running strongly in a range, and the cost - driven guidance for PX is limited. PX is expected to be in a destocking rhythm in the next few months. The focus of the current fundamentals is on the demand side, and prices are affected by marginal demand while following cost changes. [2] - The supply of PTA is gradually increasing, with inventory accumulation expected in July, which is negative for the PTA market. In the short - term, PTA prices will move in a range, and the fundamentals have no driving force after downstream production cuts. [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market has a light trading atmosphere, with sufficient supply and limited downstream purchasing intention. The recent start - up rate may decline slightly. [2] - Considering the current demand in the polyester industry chain is not optimistic, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run strongly, with all having a view score of 1. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 11, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $68.15 per barrel, up 4.88%; that of Brent crude oil was $69.77 per barrel, up 4.34%. The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $571.50 per ton, down 0.35%. [1] - **PTA Price**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,620 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 4,606 yuan per ton, down 0.73%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,818 yuan per ton, down 0.82%. [1] - **PX Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,528 yuan per ton, up 0.40%; the settlement price was 6,506 yuan per ton, down 0.70%. The PX CFR China price was $812 per ton. [1][2] - **PR Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,802 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 5,788 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,890 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. [1] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Most CCFEI price indices of downstream polyester products remained stable or declined slightly on June 11, 2025. For example, the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6,495 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. [2] 2. Spread Information - The near - far month spread of PTA was 250 yuan per ton on June 11, 2025, an increase of 10 yuan per ton; the basis was 200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43 yuan per ton. [1] - The PXN spread of PX was $240.50 per ton, down 1.37%; the PX - MX spread was $109 per ton, down 7.49%; the basis was - 36 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26 yuan per ton. [1] - The basis of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 88 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton; in the South China market, it was 198 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton. [1] 3. Start - up Rate Information - On June 11, 2025, the start - up rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.07%, down 1.45 percentage points. The PTA factory load rate in the PTA industry chain was 83.56%, unchanged. [1] - The polyester factory load rate was 89.64%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 83.82%, unchanged; the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 69.09%, unchanged. [1] 4. Production and Sales Rate Information - On June 11, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 29%, down 28 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 75%, unchanged; the sales rate of polyester chips was 69%, down 42 percentage points. [1] 5. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20. A 0.8 - million - ton PX device in South China is under planned maintenance, and some device maintenance plans are postponed. [2] 6. Important News - Sino - US trade talks have a certain supporting effect on economic growth and oil demand, but the increase in gasoline and distillate inventories suppresses oil prices. The reduction of polyester short - fiber production affects the demand expectation of PX. [2] - The PTA device maintenance peak has passed, new production capacity is in trial operation, and the supply will increase in the month. The reduction of polyester short - fiber production affects market sentiment. [2] - The domestic weaving market in June continues to be weak, with some small US orders emerging. Terminal inventory pressure is high, and the loom start - up rate in June is expected to decline. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Recently, Sino - US economic and trade consultations in London led to a shift in market expectations from optimism to pessimism, and the crude oil price first strengthened and then retreated, causing the polyester industry chain to rise and then fall [1] - The cost - end oil price fluctuates due to market concerns about OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical changes. Gasoline cracking spreads have limited upside, and the aromatics market has seen changes in exports and short - process device operations. PX supply is recovering, and its price spread has declined [2] - PTA supply is becoming more abundant as devices restart, with a slight inventory reduction in June. However, strong polyester production - cut sentiment affects demand expectations. Polyester demand is weak in the off - season, and the production rates of downstream weaving and texturing are declining [3] - PF has weak fundamentals, and it's difficult to further improve the processing margin. PR has high inventory pressure and a compressed processing interval, facing price pressure [3][4] Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It covers toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profits [24][25] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][57] PF Detailed Data - It contains data on polyester staple fiber load, factory inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and profits of related yarns [70][72][85] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report presents polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and price differences [87][89][95]

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 8850.00 | 8850.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/10 下 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7175.00 | 0.35% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7150.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D | 2025/6/10 游 | 元/吨 | 7100.00 | 7100.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 6510.00 | 6500.00 | 0.15% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 5850.00 | 5860.00 | -0.17% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 5900.00 | 5900.00 | 0.00% | | 西 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据目报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/10 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/9 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) PTA-SC(元/陣) | 466. 1 1264.8 | 474.3 1155. 2 | 8. 20 -109.59 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,PTA新产能顺利投产,下游聚酯工 厂再度释放减产言论,预估PTA去库存速度放缓,利空 | | | | | | | PTA行情。仓单数量上升且主力供应商排货偏慢,本周 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3734 | 1. 3352 | -0. 0383 | PTA现货流动性偏少,支撑本周现货基差,但6月中下 旬货源基差相对偏低。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 81 ...

王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 8850.00 | 8925.00 | -0.84% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 7175.00 | 7200.00 | -0.35% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7250.00 | -1.38% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/6/9 游 | 元/吨 | 7100.00 | 7200.00 | -1.39% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 6500.00 | 6490.00 | 0.15% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 5860.00 | 5885.00 | -0.42% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/6/9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the lack of favorable factors, PX and PTA may continue to maintain a weak oscillation. The supply of PX will return in large quantities in June and enter multiple maintenance periods in July. PTA has new plants about to be put into production, and the supply pressure will gradually return. The terminal demand is weakening marginally, and the PTA price may continue to be under pressure. The polyester industry chain is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the market may continue to oscillate weakly in the current state [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On June 6, the PX main contract closed at 6,556.0 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 79.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,652.0 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 228.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.65 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 754.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 808.93 million meters. The current domestic PX operating rate is 78%, and that in Asia is 69.4%. However, the 1 - million - ton PX plant of Qingdao Lidong plans to increase the load to about 90% in June, the disproportionation plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical restarts and increases the load, the 700,000 - ton production capacity of Liaoyang Petrochemical that was shut down briefly restarted on May 26, and the 400,000 - ton production capacity of GS will restart in mid - June. The PX supply will return in large quantities in June and then enter multiple maintenance periods in July. PTA has new plants about to be put into production, and the supply pressure will gradually return. The terminal demand is weakening marginally, and the PTA price may continue to be under pressure [2] 3.1.2 Polyester - On June 6, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,394.0 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,500.0 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 106.0 yuan/ton. The total transaction volume (MA15) of the China Light Textile City showed a small - scale fluctuation during this period, dropping from 830.27 million meters on May 27 to 808.93 million meters on June 6. The market demand is relatively weak. It is expected that the polyester industry chain will remain volatile in the short term, and there is no obvious demand growth point to drive the price increase of the industry chain. Therefore, in the absence of strong driving factors, the market may continue to oscillate weakly in the current state [3] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures was 6,556 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the trading volume decreased by 3.91%, and the open interest decreased by 2.77%. The CFR price at the main port in China was 820.33 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the FOB price in South Korea was 794 US dollars/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day. The PX basis was 79 yuan/ton, down 16.84% from the previous day [4] - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures was 4,652 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day; the trading volume decreased by 3.08%, and the open interest decreased by 1.63%. The CFR price at the main port in China was 615 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The PTA basis was 228 yuan/ton, up 22.58% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, down 83.33% from the previous day; the 5 - 9 spread was - 114 yuan/ton, up 9.52% from the previous day; the 9 - 1 spread was 136 yuan/ton, down 1.45% from the previous day. The PTA import profit was - 537.48 yuan/ton, up 8.74% from the previous day [4] - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,394 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day; the trading volume increased by 19.74%, and the open interest increased by 0.59%. The mainstream spot price in the East China market was 6,500 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day. The PF basis was 106 yuan/ton, down 17.19% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 8 yuan/ton, up 63.64% from the previous day; the 5 - 9 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, down 112.50% from the previous day; the 9 - 1 spread was 42 yuan/ton, up 10.53% from the previous day [4] - **Other products**: The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.65 US dollars/barrel, up 2.08% from the previous day; the main contract of US crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, up 2.40% from the previous day. The CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 557.13 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of ethylene glycol was 4,410 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The price of polyester chips was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 1.10% from the previous day. The price of polyester bottle chips was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day. The price of polyester POY was 6,920 yuan/ton, down 1.14% from the previous day. The price of polyester DTY was 8,180 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The price of polyester FDY was 7,230 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day [4] - **Processing spreads**: The processing spread of naphtha was 50.66 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; that of PX was 263.2 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; that of PTA was 346.6 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day. The processing spreads of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY all decreased to varying degrees [5] - **Light Textile City transaction volume**: The total transaction volume on June 6 was 754 million meters, including 554 million meters of long - fiber fabrics and 200 million meters of short - fiber fabrics [5] - **Industrial chain load rate**: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on June 6 were 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively, all unchanged from the previous day [5] - **Inventory days**: The inventory days of polyester short - fiber decreased by 11.26% to 8.35 days; the inventory days of polyester POY increased by 19.57% to 16.5 days; the inventory days of polyester FDY increased by 4.35% to 21.6 days; the inventory days of polyester DTY increased by 4.03% to 28.4 days [5] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On June 5, the Bank of Canada kept the key interest rate unchanged but may cut interest rates in the future. The Canadian dollar rose to a new high. The Fed's Beige Book reported that economic activity declined slightly in six regions, and enterprises generally expected future costs to rise at an accelerated pace. Trump commented on ADP data, calling on Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates. He also called for the complete cancellation of the debt ceiling and cooperation between the two parties. Trump had a 75 - minute phone call with Putin, revealing that Putin would respond firmly to the attack on a Russian airport, and he said he was unaware of the attack in advance [6] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - Demand - On June 6, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 754.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%. The transaction volume of long - fiber fabrics was 554.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 200.0 million meters. On November 6, the 15 - day average sales - to - production ratio of polyester factories was 53.56% [7] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including PX main futures and basis, PX spot price, PTA main futures and basis, PTA spot price, short - fiber main futures and basis, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA futures monthly spread, short - fiber futures monthly spread, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber sales and production situation, polyester long - fiber sales and production situation, China Light Textile City transaction volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [8][10][12][14][15][19][21][22][23][24][25]

化工日报 | 2025-06-04 瓶片减产，聚酯产业链震荡下跌 市场要闻与数据 三房巷装置减停产近70万吨，涉及瓶片和短纤，聚酯负荷进一步下跌预期下，同时终端需求也逐步转弱，市场担 心关税政策反复，产业链价格震荡下跌。 市场分析 成本端，端午期间原油价格震荡上行，乌克兰无人机周日袭击了多个俄罗斯军用机场，造成较大规模损失，地缘 风险迅速升温，后续持续关注地缘变化。 汽油和芳烃方面，当前欧美和新加坡汽油裂解价差季节性有反弹，但整体在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价 差上涨空间有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以 满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利 润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN284美元/吨(环比变动+1.00美元/吨）。近期国内外PX负荷整体提升，一方面是集中检修 期陆续结束，另一方面也与利润修复有关。随着供应恢复，PXN有所回落，不过目前现货市场货源仍较紧张，关 注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展，P ...