Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4600 per ounce, is driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, a crisis of trust in the Federal Reserve, and a weakening dollar, leading to increased global risk aversion [2][3][4] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The U.S. Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reignited concerns over political interference in the Fed's independence, contributing to a decline in the dollar index and U.S. stock futures, which in turn supports higher gold and silver prices [3] - Ongoing U.S. military interventions, particularly in Venezuela, have heightened geopolitical risks, further bolstering market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3][4] - The accumulation of fiscal risks in the U.S., with national debt nearing $40 trillion and a fiscal deficit rate of 6.8%, has diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, making gold a preferred choice for both institutions and retail investors [3] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic asset, with expectations of net purchases exceeding 1000 tons by 2025, reflecting a shift towards "de-dollarization" [4] - The strategic accumulation of gold by central banks is expected to continue, with UBS predicting purchases to rise to 950 tons in 2026, indicating a long-term trend in gold's role as a stabilizing asset on national balance sheets [4] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Ordinary investors are experiencing a divide in sentiment regarding gold prices, with a surge in gold account openings alongside reports of individuals facing losses from recent price fluctuations [6][7] - Investment strategies vary, with recommendations for those looking to "chase" gold to use idle funds and adopt a phased buying approach, while those opting to "wait" should set specific price triggers for entry [7] - For those considering "withdrawal," it is advised to lock in profits or exit if gold is misperceived as a short-term speculative tool [7] Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - The current gold price level serves as a reflection of individual attitudes towards risk and uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of a clear investment framework rather than merely speculating on price peaks [8] - Investors are encouraged to focus on building resilient portfolios that can withstand market volatility, rather than seeking quick gains, highlighting the significance of long-term holding strategies [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On January 11, gold futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached a historic high, surpassing $4,612 per ounce, driven by geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Spot gold prices also surged, breaking the $4,600 mark for the first time, before retreating to $4,581.547 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with several brands quoting over 1,400 yuan per gram, reflecting a rise of 20 yuan per gram compared to the previous day [4] Group 2: Silver Market Trends - Silver prices in London reached over $84 per ounce, marking a more than 5.5% increase and setting a new historical high [5] - The volatility in silver prices has been significant, with a single-day increase of nearly 8% and a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14% [11] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs predict that silver will continue to experience higher volatility compared to gold due to the lack of demand support from global central bank reserves [14] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - U.S. geopolitical actions, including potential military interventions in Iran and Venezuela, are contributing to increased market volatility and investor interest in precious metals as safe-haven assets [8][9] - The recent U.S. military actions have heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to a surge in demand for gold and silver as investors seek to hedge against uncertainty [9] Group 4: Market Adjustments and Predictions - The Bloomberg Commodity Index has undergone annual rebalancing, resulting in a significant reduction in the weight of precious metals, which may trigger passive selling pressure [16] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised margin requirements for trading precious metals, including a 28.6% increase for silver, which typically curbs speculative trading [16] - Despite short-term downward pressures, multiple financial institutions expect that precious metals will have upward price potential throughout the year [18]

美联储独立性危机仍在发酵。美国司法部正对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，重点审查美联储总部的 翻修工程的相关问题。这或是特朗普对鲍威尔施压的又一举措，此前特朗普多次要求鲍威尔大幅降低利 率，并以解雇作为威胁。国会授予美联储独立制定利率的权力，旨在使其免受政治干预，专注于低通胀 和劳动力市场健康。然而特朗普的频频干预导致美联储独立性受损，或损害美元信用。此外特朗普上周 表示，他已选定接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席的人选，预计很快会公布决定。 中国央行连续第14个月购金。从2024年11月至2025年12月，每月保持稳定增持节奏。1月7日，央行公布 数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国黄金储备为7415万盎司，较11月末的7412万盎司增加3万盎司，为 连续第14个月增持黄金，体现美元信用体系瓦解背景下，各国央行分散外汇储备、买黄金卖美债的趋势 或延续。 近期全球地缘冲突频发，避险资金或涌向黄金。委内瑞拉事件仍在发酵，此外美国还在考虑攻击伊朗的 多种方案，以及尝试吞并格陵兰岛。国际局势变数仍存，全球传统秩序趋于崩溃，避险情绪或利好黄 金。 Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价强势上涨。伦敦现货黄金收于4，509美元/ ...

每经编辑｜陈柯名 潘海福 | | | 受国际金价带动，国内黄金饰品价格也普遍上涨，多个品牌足金报价突破1400元/克。其中，周生生、老庙报价1429元/克，周大福、周大生报价1426元/ 克，六福珠宝报价1424元/克，较昨日普遍上涨了20元/克。 | 实物黄金 单位元/克 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 間大福 | 周六格 間六福 | 間生生 周生生 | | 1426.00 | 1411.00 | 1429.00 | | 金条价格 1251.00 | 金条价格 1306.00 | 金条价格 1254.00 | | 周大芝 間大生 | (ml 潮宗基 | 六福珠宝 | | 1426.00 | 1426.00 | 1424.00 | | 铂金价格 933.00 | 铂金价格 933.00 | 金条价格 1249.00 | | 一家花 | 我用直令 | 中国商会 | | 1428.00 | 1429.00 | 1023.60 | | 足金价格 1428.00 | 金条价格 1384.00 | 零售价 1039.60 | 此外，伦敦现货白银站上84美元/盎司，涨幅超5.5%，突破两周前高点， ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant fluctuations in the international commodity market have led to a synchronized increase in oil and precious metal prices, driven by geopolitical risks, expectations of a weaker dollar, and adjustments in supply-demand dynamics [1][3][4] Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S. military actions in Venezuela, has raised concerns about the stability of global energy supply chains, prompting investors to reassess the uncertainty surrounding oil supply and triggering a rebound in oil prices [3] - The changing global security environment has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold and silver becoming preferred choices for investors [3] Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the U.S. dollar index, exacerbated by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following investigations into its chairman, has provided support for dollar-denominated oil and precious metal prices [3] - Historical data indicates a significant negative correlation between the dollar and commodities, with a weaker dollar reducing holding costs and attracting global capital to increase positions in commodities [3] Supply-Demand Dynamics - Structural adjustments in supply-demand dynamics are reinforcing the upward trend in prices, with OPEC+ deciding to maintain production cuts until early 2026, alleviating concerns about oversupply in the oil market [4] - In the precious metals market, continued purchases by global central banks, with a reported net purchase of 45 tons in November 2025, have bolstered demand, contributing to a solid foundation for rising gold and silver prices [4] Differentiated Price Drivers - The logic behind price increases varies between commodities, with oil prices primarily driven by short-term geopolitical risks, while gold and silver are more influenced by concerns over monetary credibility and the ongoing "de-dollarization" process [4] - Fund flows indicate this differentiation, with the oil market seeing short-term speculative inflows, while the precious metals market is characterized by a combined increase in holdings from both institutions and retail investors, evidenced by significant growth in gold ETF and physical gold bar sales [4]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2025, with developed economies at 1.6% and emerging markets at 4.2% [1] - The year 2025 is expected to showcase several sectors that significantly exceed market expectations [1] Capital Market Dynamics - The evolution of global capital markets in 2025 is influenced by three core drivers: a shift in monetary policy towards interest rate cuts, escalating geopolitical tensions, and asset revaluation and reallocation [3] - Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are anticipated to reach $4.5 trillion in 2025, a nearly 50% increase from 2024, marking the second-highest level on record [4] - The M&A landscape will focus on strategically driven "super deals," with 68 transactions exceeding $10 billion, including significant deals in the streaming and railway sectors [4] International Trade Trends - Despite facing challenges from U.S. unilateral tariff policies and trade protectionism, global trade is expected to grow by approximately 7% in 2025, reaching a record $35 trillion [6] - The global value chain trade remains robust, accounting for about 46% of global trade, with a shift towards resilience, sustainability, and inclusivity [6] Future Economic Drivers - Artificial Intelligence (AI) and green transition are projected to shape global economic growth trajectories in 2026, with AI expected to contribute trillions to global GDP [10] - The green industry is transitioning from policy-driven to market-driven, with significant investments anticipated in clean energy and green technologies [10] Risks and Uncertainties - The global economy faces numerous risks, including trade policies and geopolitical tensions, which could disrupt recovery processes [11] - High levels of debt in various countries, particularly in the U.S., may constrain fiscal policy and impact market confidence in dollar assets [11]

1月12日盘中，沪金期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1031.30元。截止发稿，沪金主力合约 报1025.26元，涨幅2.47%。 国投安信期货：贵金属继续挑战前高阻力 沪金期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 周五美国非农新增就业5万人低于预期，但失业率从11月的4.5%降至4.4%，市场对于美联储本月将维持 利率不变基本达成共识。开年全球地缘乱局延续，委内瑞拉之后伊朗局势再度紧张，媒体报道特朗普已 听取了有关对伊朗实施军事打击的简报。贵金属继续挑战前高阻力，考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下 降后寻找再入场机会。 机构 核心观点 华联期货 黄金的中长期利好因素仍在 新世纪期货 地缘政治风险激发市场避险需求，支撑金价上涨 国投安信期货 贵金属继续挑战前高阻力 华联期货：黄金的中长期利好因素仍在 美联储理事表示，他希望2026年美联储累计降息150个基点，以支持劳动力市场修复，支持黄金上涨。 12月就业率回升，降息预期下降，而贵金属强势震荡，后续关注美联储降息预期变化。从12月美联储议 息会议看，对经济、失业率和通胀预测来看，2026年降息二次的概率增大，因此属于鸽派降息，利好黄 金； ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets due to geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4600.79 per ounce, while silver prices approached $84 per ounce, marking significant increases driven by global conflicts and the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing disputes between President Trump and the Federal Reserve are undermining the credibility of the dollar, contributing to a trend of de-dollarization and increasing the appeal of precious metals [2][3] Group 2 - The current environment of frequent geopolitical conflicts is creating substantial uncertainty in the market, which is enhancing the safe-haven properties of precious metals [2] - Factors such as rising debt risks, geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization are expected to sustain the upward trajectory of gold prices in the long term [3] - The supply shortage of silver, coupled with rising industrial demand and tight inventory conditions, is likely to drive silver prices further upward [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend as it enters the first week of 2026, with significant increases in major indices and trading volumes, indicating a potential bullish market phase driven by various factors [1][3][10]. Market Performance - As of January 9, all three major indices closed higher, with the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.15%, the ChiNext Index up 0.77%, and the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.92%, reaching 4120.43 points, marking its first return to this level since July 2015 [3]. - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.12 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 322.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking the fifth occurrence in A-share history of daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan [3]. - Over the first five trading days of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.89%, with the STAR 50 Index increasing by 9.80% [3]. Sector Performance - The metals and satellite sectors have attracted significant capital inflows, with 598 industry-themed ETFs collectively receiving a net inflow of 13.827 billion yuan over five trading days [4][5]. - The Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF led the inflows with 3.721 billion yuan, followed by the Yongying National Satellite Communication Industry ETF with 3.589 billion yuan [4]. - The chemical sector also saw high interest, with related ETFs experiencing a net inflow of 3.853 billion yuan [5]. Fund Flows - The nonferrous metals sector saw a total net inflow of 8.983 billion yuan across 10 related ETFs, while the satellite industry attracted 8.821 billion yuan across 6 ETFs [5]. - Conversely, the robotics and battery sectors experienced significant net outflows, with 1.348 billion yuan and 1.077 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - Other sectors with notable outflows included military and pharmaceutical industries, with net outflows of 785 million yuan and 679 million yuan, respectively [6]. ETF Scale Growth - The total scale of 598 industry-themed ETFs reached 1.178127 trillion yuan, with a cumulative growth of 83.468 billion yuan in the first five trading days of the year [7]. - The Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF saw the largest scale increase of 5.555 billion yuan, followed by the Yongying National Satellite Communication Industry ETF with 5.109 billion yuan [7]. - Despite some ETFs experiencing net outflows, significant increases in net asset values have driven overall scale growth in various sectors, including semiconductors and military [8]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that 2026 may witness a "Bull Market 2.0," driven by improvements in fundamentals, technological trends, asset migration, and policy easing [10]. - The focus is expected to shift towards technology growth as the main line, with cyclical resources as a supporting factor, both showing potential for sustained excess returns [10]. - Key areas of interest include AI infrastructure, commercial aerospace, and strategic metals, with a particular emphasis on sectors benefiting from policy support and improving supply-demand dynamics [11].

1. Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry 2. Core Views - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, but different sectors have different trends and investment suggestions [6] - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy is not strong. However, due to low asset valuations and economic resilience, the market sentiment has warmed up, and different futures varieties show various characteristics [8] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.07%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.03% respectively [5] - **Policy and Data**: The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 9, with a net investment of 34 billion yuan. In December 2025, China's CPI rose by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI fell by 1.9% year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6] 3.2 Equity Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose by 0.71%, 0.62%, 2.99%, and 3.07% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can take long positions at appropriate times [8] 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of gold rose by 0.86%, and the main contract of silver rose by 1.52% [10] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. However, due to the significant increase in precious metals recently and the rise in speculative sentiment, it is expected that market volatility will significantly increase. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [10] 3.4 Steel and Iron Ore 3.4.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai were in certain ranges [12] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, rebar prices may continue to be weak and volatile, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [13] 3.4.2 Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated at high levels. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were 815 yuan/ton and 705 yuan/ton respectively [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is expected to strengthen. The futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [15] 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [17] - **Outlook**: Coking coal production has recovered, and coke procurement prices have been lowered. The rebound of futures shows signs of weakness. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels and pay attention to position management [17][18] 3.6 Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell by 0.74% and 1.95% respectively. The spot prices also declined [20] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, ferroalloy production has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20] 3.7 Energy 3.7.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the possible escalation of the Iranian situation [21] - **Outlook**: The United States is discussing the development strategy of Venezuelan oil, but it has received a cold response. The US President has listened to reports on military strikes against Iran. Crude oil has stabilized around $60 and is expected to rise. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [23] 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and closed above the 5 - day moving average [25] - **Outlook**: The decrease in Singapore fuel oil inventory is positive for prices, while the selling of Asian derivatives on Friday exerts pressure. The rising crude oil prices are expected to drive fuel oil prices up. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [26] 3.8 Chemicals 3.8.1 Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the Hangzhou PP market, some quotations were raised, and in the Yuyao LLDPE market, some prices increased [28] - **Outlook**: The demand in different sectors of PP products is uneven, and the industry differentiation is more prominent. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [28] 3.8.2 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber fell by 2.12%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was lowered [30] - **Outlook**: It is expected to be mainly strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and the implementation of January device maintenance [30] 3.8.3 Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - rubber fell by 0.96% and 1.33% respectively, and the Shanghai spot price was lowered [33] - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state in the short - term [33] 3.8.4 PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell by 0.73%, and the spot price was lowered [35] - **Outlook**: Although it is currently in the traditional demand off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong and volatile trend in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of the demand side [35] 3.8.5 Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell by 0.22%, and the price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [38] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, urea prices will remain volatile and strong, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [38] 3.8.6 PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2603 fell by 0.06% and rose by 2.5% at night [40] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, and the PX start - up rate remains unchanged. The rising crude oil prices provide support. However, it is necessary to be cautious. PX may be mainly in a volatile adjustment state [40] 3.8.7 PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2605 fell by 0.23% and rose by 2.28% at night. The spot price in East China was 5,038 yuan/ton [41] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has rebounded to a neutral level, and the inventory remains low. The supply - demand situation has changed little. In the long - and medium - term, the supply - demand expectation is good, and the rising crude oil prices provide support [41] 3.8.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The report does not provide specific previous - trading - day performance data [43] - **Outlook**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and the port inventory is still under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [43] 3.8.9 Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2603 fell by 0.25% and rose by 1.48% at night [45] - **Outlook**: The supply of short - fiber is expected to decrease during the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. It is necessary to be cautious, and it is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate. Investors should be cautious and control risks [45] 3.8.10 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The report does not provide specific previous - trading - day performance data [47] - **Outlook**: The load of bottle chips has slightly decreased recently, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. It is necessary to be cautious, and it is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate [47] 3.8.11 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 1,225 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [48] - **Outlook**: The supply remains high, and the inventory reflects that the winter storage rhythm is weaker than in previous years. The current contradiction lies in the game between "strong expectation and weak reality". In the short - term, it is mainly range - bound operation [48] 3.8.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 1,125 yuan/ton, down 1.66% [49] - **Outlook**: The glass production capacity is gradually being reduced, but the real - estate new construction and completion areas do not bring significant positive expectations. In the short - term, it is mainly short - selling, but attention should be paid to the short - term driving force brought by real - estate policies [49] 3.8.13 Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2603 closed at 2,211 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [51] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit. In the short - term, the price is expected to continue to be weak and stable. However, there is a possibility of price driving due to downstream capacity optimization or supply - side active production cuts. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations and control positions [51] 3.8.14 Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 5,548 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [54] - **Outlook**: The fundamental factors are intertwined. The supply expansion news is still being released, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The futures price is oscillating at a high level. In the absence of significant driving factors in the future supply - demand, the futures price may return to the spot price. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the range - bound oscillation [54] 3.9 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.9.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.01% to 143,420 yuan/ton [55] - **Outlook**: The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for lithium - battery products may stimulate enterprises to increase exports and inventory. The supply is in a tight balance, and the demand is strong. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. However, the continuous rise may over - draw future expectations, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [55] 3.9.2 Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper (presumably a wrong description here, should be related to the respective metals) fluctuated slightly and closed at the 60 - day level [57][58][59][60] - **Outlook**: The report does not provide specific outlooks for these four metals 3.9.3 Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose by 3.15% to 359,980 yuan/ton [61] - **Outlook**: Due to geopolitical conflicts, the supply is generally tight, and the demand shows certain resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support at the bottom, but there may be a short - term correction [61] 3.9.4 Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose by 2.78% to 140,280 yuan/ton [63] - **Outlook**: Due to the anti - globalization trend and geopolitical conflicts, the cost of nickel is expected to rise, but the real - world consumption is still not optimistic, and the primary nickel is still in an oversupply situation. Attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [63] 3.10 Agricultural Products 3.10.1 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soybean meal fell by 0.64% to 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of soybean oil rose by 0.33% to 7,994 yuan/ton [64] - **Outlook**: The demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has slightly improved. There is a certain supply pressure. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range for soybean meal and long - position opportunities for call options in the low - level range for soybean oil [64] 3.10.2 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell on Friday due to profit - taking but recorded a weekly increase [66] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities after a correction [67] 3.10.3 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed fell on Friday but recorded a strong weekly increase [68] - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the changes in the import trade policy of Canadian rapeseed products. If the import of Canadian rapeseed products increases, investors can consider opportunities to expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil in the far - month contracts [68] 3.10.4 Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton significantly reduced positions and fell for three consecutive days [70] - **Outlook**: In the long - and medium - term, cotton prices are expected to be strong, but the short - term increase has been too large, and the domestic valuation is relatively high compared with the international market. It is recommended to buy on dips in batches after a correction [70] 3.10.5 Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zheng sugar was weakly volatile, and the international raw sugar slightly fell after a bottom - hunting rebound [74] - **Outlook**: Abroad, the focus is on the production in the Northern Hemisphere, especially India's production. Domestically, there is pressure from both domestic new sugar and imported sugar. After a significant rebound in the market, the upward space may be limited [75] 3.10.6 Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures were strongly volatile [78] - **Outlook**: The inventory this year is at a low level in recent years, and the apple production and quality have declined. It is expected that the prices will be strong in the long - and medium - term [78] 3.10.7 Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs was 12.70 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan from the previous day. The main contract fell by 0.08% to 11,770 yuan/ton [82] - **Outlook**: In the first quarter, the supply may still face great pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for changes in the market capital structure [82] 3.10.8 Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average prices in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The main contract rose by 0.46% to 3,040 yuan/500 kg [84] - **Outlook**: In January, the egg supply may remain at a relatively high