Core Insights - The current Chinese venture capital market is at a turning point, characterized by both a cyclical bottoming and a deepening structural transformation, necessitating adaptability to capture opportunities amid uncertainty [1] - The 36Kr WAVES New Era 2025 conference gathered top investors, innovative entrepreneurs, and scholars to discuss cutting-edge topics such as AI innovation and globalization [1] Group 1: Historical Context - The dialogue featured insights from industry veteran Li Wei, who played a pivotal role in designing China's first convertible bond in 1992, marking a significant moment in the development of the capital market [3][4] - Li Wei emphasized the importance of understanding fundamental principles in entrepreneurship, drawing parallels between the design of convertible bonds and current venture capital practices [5][6] Group 2: Industry Evolution - The venture capital industry in China has experienced significant ups and downs over the past 30 years, with key phases including the initial excitement in the late 1990s and subsequent challenges in the early 2000s [9][10] - Li Wei identified three key phrases to describe the industry's journey: "ups and downs," "turning points," and "light at the end of the tunnel," reflecting the cyclical nature of the market [9] Group 3: Current Trends and Future Outlook - There is a growing confidence in the industry, driven by increased government maturity and a shift towards domestic technology development in response to global tech restrictions [11][12] - Li Wei noted that the recovery of the venture capital market is more about investor confidence than mere index performance, highlighting the need for a supportive environment for innovation [12][14] - The success of companies like DeepSeek illustrates the potential for software innovation to thrive despite hardware challenges, reinforcing optimism for China's tech future [20][21] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Li Wei advocated for a more flexible approach to state-owned enterprises, suggesting that they should operate according to market principles to enhance efficiency and innovation [22][23] - The importance of nurturing a vibrant private sector was emphasized, with a call for other regions to learn from Zhejiang's focus on supporting private enterprises [21][22]

在受访农民中，净44%的人预计农业经济条件将在未来12个月改善，这一比例与一季度持平——那是 2017年二季度以来最高。 Rabobank发布的二季度农民信心调查结果显示：新西兰农民信心持稳于八年来最高位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with investment and sales figures showing notable declines in the first five months of 2025, necessitating stronger efforts to stabilize the market [1][4][12]. Group 1: Investment and Sales Data - Real estate development investment reached approximately 3.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% [1][4]. - New residential sales area totaled 3.53 million square meters, down 2.9% year-on-year, with sales revenue of about 3.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.8% decline [1][7]. - The construction area for real estate projects was 6.25 billion square meters, down 9.2%, while new construction area fell by 22.8% [5][10]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Trends - The decline in investment has been attributed to a lack of market confidence and ongoing adjustments within the real estate sector [2][12]. - Despite the overall downturn, some first- and second-tier cities are witnessing active market transactions, with sales figures showing resilience [9][13]. - The inventory of unsold properties has decreased for three consecutive months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [7][9]. Group 3: Financing and Developer Insights - The total funds available to real estate developers amounted to approximately 4.02 trillion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, with various funding sources showing mixed results [10][11]. - Industry experts emphasize the need for improved financing mechanisms and policies to support developers and stimulate market activity [11][12]. - There is a call for local governments to enhance land supply and reduce development costs to encourage investment in high-quality residential projects [4][6].

6月13日，美国密歇根大学公布的数据显示，6月消费者信心指数意外回升至60.5，明显高于市场预期的58，也远高于5月的52.2。这不仅终结了此前连续五个 月的下滑趋势，更显示出美国家庭对经济现状和未来前景的看法正在发生微妙变化。然而，Vatee认为虽然短期信心反弹，但与去年同期相比，该指数仍低 11.3%，说明深层次的不确定性尚未完全消除。 从分项指标来看，消费者对当前经济状况的信心指数升至63.7，环比上涨8.1%，而对未来经济状况的信心则改善更为明显，从上月的47.9跃升至58.4，环比 涨幅达21.9%。这表明消费者对中短期经济前景的担忧有所缓解，部分得益于通胀数据的回落以及市场对美联储年内可能降息的押注升温。 即便信心指标短期回升，但目前的整体信心水平仍处于较低区间。自俄乌冲突以来，能源价格、食品价格波动较大，叠加高利率和高房贷成本的现实压力， 美国消费者的实际购买力受到明显挤压。企业裁员预期上升、信贷环境偏紧等因素也使得部分家庭对未来仍保持谨慎。 从政策层面看，若通胀持续缓和且信心进一步改善，可能强化美联储在9月或12月会议上降息的合理性。但如果油价因地缘政治持续上行、核心服务类通胀 反弹，消费信心 ...

密歇根大学六月十四日最新数据显示，美国消费者信心指数初值跃升至六十点五，较五月的五十二点二大幅升至十五点九，创下去年十二月以来最大涨幅， 远超经济学家预期。这一关键指标在连续五个月下滑后首次回升，反映出消费者对美国经济前景的悲观情绪出现松动。 当前美国消费者支出尚未受情绪波动明显冲击，但历史表明，信心指数并非消费行为的可靠预测指标。荷兰国际集团经济学家指出，韩国四月对美出口骤降 百分之十四点三等迹象，印证关税已开始损害全球供应链。美国全国零售商联合会警告："辛勤工作的美国家庭将为价格上升付出代价"。 a Or - 6 421 r Pre 尽管指数全面回升，但当前美国消费者信心相较去年十二月仍低约百分之二十。消费者对商业环境、个人财务及就业市场的评估均显著弱于半年前，凸显其 谨慎态度未根本扭转。若七月八日对等关税如期生效，而美国未能在一个月内与百余贸易伙伴达成新协议，紧张情绪可能再度升温。 本周美国劳工部数据带来利好消息：五月CPI环比仅微涨百分之零点一，低于预期。这暂时缓解了关税推高物价的担忧，但经济学家普遍警告，进口成本传 导效应可能在数月后显现。数据公布后，美国相关人士再次呼吁美联储"降息整整一个百分点" ...

价格指标显现筑底期特征，平均议价空间再创新低 ◎ 文 / 马千里 为探析二手房成交价格的动向，研究中心以北京、上海等11个典型城市的二手房小区为样本，为避免单套异常成交影响较大，每个月样本小区的选取标准，均为近2 个月交易量不小于5套。 从统计结果来看，5月有44.9%的小区成交价格环比上升，较上月回落了7个百分点，高频交易小区数量仍处于高位，连续两个月在5000个以上。在上月房价上涨小 区占比过半之后，本月再度进入价格调整期， 2025年以来，涨价小区占比已经在50%上下"一涨一跌"连续波动了5个月，筑底期信号愈发明确。 结合成交数据来 看，5月份核心城市二手房交易量同比增长2%。二手房价格走向虽出现反复，但交易量已实现同比止跌，这也进一步说明，当前的二手房价正在越来越接近阶段性 底部。得益于央行一揽子金融政策的推动，以及各地积极出台促消费政策提振住房需求，5月份重点城市二手房价格暂缓上行，但交易量仍持续高位，印证当前市 场信心仍在持续恢复。 与买方出价意愿波动不同，卖方价格仍在持续下调。 2025年5月，有34.1%的小区挂牌价上涨，较上月再度回落了1.1个百分点。不论买方出价意愿如何波动，2025 年以 ...

美国总统特朗普则表示，伊朗没有在设定的60天期限内就其核问题与美国达成协议，13日是第61天。现 在，伊朗可能还有第二次机会。他敦促伊朗在"太晚"之前就核问题与美国达成协议。 不过，伊朗国家电视台报道说，伊朗将不会参加原定于15日在阿曼举行的第六轮伊朗与美国核问题谈 判。 市场服务机构Siebert 顾问NXT公司首席投资官马克·马列克（Mark Malek）表示，伊朗与以色列的冲突 给市场上的担忧增加了新的挑战，这些担忧不会消失。如果原油价格大幅上涨得以持续，这几乎会对通 胀数据立刻带来影响。 新华财经纽约6月13日电（记者刘亚南）由于以色列对伊朗发起军事打击显著推高市场避险需求，纽约 股市三大股指13日明显低开，盘中跌幅有所收窄，午后跌幅扩大，尾盘窄幅盘整，收盘时纽约股市三大 股指均显著下跌。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌769.83点，收于42197.79点，跌幅为1.79%；标 准普尔500种股票指数下跌68.29点，收于5976.97点，跌幅为1.13%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌255.66点， 收于19406.83点，跌幅为1.30%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块十跌一涨。 ...

一夜过去，以伊局势又有最新消息！ 以色列多地14日凌晨再度响起防空警报，以军说伊朗向以色列发起新一轮导弹袭击。此外，据伊朗迈赫尔通讯社13日报 道，以色列当晚继续对伊朗发动猛烈空袭，伊朗首都德黑兰，以及加兹温、伊斯法罕、赞詹等多地多次发生巨大爆炸。 国际原油期货结算价大幅收涨。WTI 7月原油期货涨幅7.55%，报73.18美元/桶，盘中一度曾涨至77.62美元，逼近2022年6月 16日顶部78.48美元。现货黄金价格同样反弹。 以军说伊朗向以色列发动新一轮导弹袭击 以色列多地14日凌晨再度响起防空警报，以军说伊朗向以色列发起新一轮导弹袭击。 当地时间周五，受中东地区紧张局势升级影响，欧美股市集体收跌，跌幅普遍超过1%。截至收盘，道指跌1.79%报 42197.79点，标普500指数跌1.13%报5976.97点，纳指跌1.3%报19406.83点。 盘面上，科技、航空、银行股普跌。受油价大幅飙升提振，能源股逆势上涨，埃克森美孚涨超2%，西方石油涨逾3%。 以军发表声明说，在确认伊朗向以色列发射导弹后，以色列多个地区拉响了警报，公众需遵守以军本土守备司令部发布的 指示。以色列空军正在执行拦截和打击任务，以消 ...

通胀预期方面，消费者预计未来一年物价上涨率为5.1%，显著低于5月的6.6%，为自2001年10月以来最大单月 降幅。对于长期通胀，受访者预计未来5至10年年均通胀率为4.1%，较5月略降0.1个百分点。 智通财经APP获悉，随着对经济的担忧缓解、短期通胀预期明显改善，美国消费者信心在6月出现了自2024年 1月以来的最大月度涨幅。 根据密歇根大学周五公布的初步数据，6月消费者信心指数环比跃升8.3点，达到60.5，远高于外媒调查中经济 学家的所有预期。这标志着该指数今年首次上涨，反映出民众对经济前景的悲观情绪有所缓解，尤其是对总 统特朗普推行的保护主义贸易政策的焦虑感减弱。 调查还显示，消费者对经济的预期指数大涨10.5点至58.4，创下自2023年12月以来最大升幅；对当前经济状况 的评估也从58.9上升至63.7，为三个月新高。不过，即便如此，消费者对商业环境、个人财务和大额消费的看 法仍低于去年底的水平。 密歇根大学消费者调查负责人Joanne Hsu指出："消费者似乎已经从4月宣布的高额关税及其后几周的政策动荡 中逐渐平复。但他们仍然认为经济面临广泛的下行风险。" 尽管如此，此番消费者情绪的改善为市 ...

Group 1 - The US Consumer Confidence Index saw its largest increase since January 2024, rising by 8.3 points to 60.5, significantly exceeding all expectations from Bloomberg economists [1] - Consumers expect prices to rise by 5.1% over the next year, a substantial decrease from 6.6% in May, marking the largest single-month drop since October 2001 [1] - The improvement in consumer confidence indicates a reduction in anxiety regarding Trump's protectionist trade policies, with significant enhancements in economic expectations and personal financial outlooks [1] Group 2 - The core inflation indicator, excluding volatile food and energy categories, only rose by 0.1% in May, reflecting a calming of inflation concerns [2] - The expectations index surged by 10.5 points to 58.4, the largest increase since December 2023, while the current conditions index rose to a three-month high of 63.7 [2] - Confidence levels have increased across all political affiliations, with Republicans reaching their highest confidence index since October 2020, and Democrats and independents also hitting three-month peaks [2]