Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing negotiations between the EU and the US regarding tariffs, particularly in light of a recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, which sets a precedent for the EU's negotiations. The EU is aiming to avoid a 30% punitive tariff by agreeing to a 15% tariff on goods exported to the US, which would apply to sensitive products like automobiles [1][5]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU is in high-level discussions with the US to establish a tariff framework similar to the recent US-Japan agreement, with a proposed 15% tariff on EU goods to the US [1][5]. - The EU's current average tariff on US goods is 4.8%, with an additional 10% special tariff imposed by the US since April [1]. - The EU is preparing a countermeasure list of US goods worth €93 billion, matching the proposed 30% tariff, which includes significant products like Boeing aircraft and American automobiles [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - If the US implements a 30% punitive tariff, it could push the Eurozone economy towards recession, potentially reducing annual growth by up to 0.3 percentage points over the next two years [8]. - The EU's response to US tariffs is expected to be more targeted and smaller in scale compared to the US's broad tariff measures, which may lead to a more restrained reaction than the market anticipates [8][9]. - Despite the uncertainty, European stock markets are expected to maintain an upward trend in the next six months, although they may face short-term adjustments due to market sentiment and trade policy uncertainties [8][9].

Core Views - The market index has reached a critical level at 3600 points, indicating a significant divide in market sentiment and trend [2][11] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking and external disturbances, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact supported by policy backing and industrial upgrades [3][12] - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern in the medium term, with abundant structural opportunities requiring enhanced stock selection and timing skills [11][12] Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73 points, up 23.43 points, with a trading volume of 18,447 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [6][11] - The market showed mixed performance with sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone and energy metals experiencing significant gains, while precious metals and banking sectors faced declines [7][8][11] Sector Analysis - The Hainan Free Trade Zone saw a surge due to the upcoming full island "closure" on December 18, which will significantly increase the proportion of zero-tariff imports [7] - The energy metals sector rose sharply following government announcements of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [8] - The securities sector has shown resilience, with expectations of improved performance driven by increased trading volumes and favorable economic conditions [9] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding high-flying stocks and selectively reducing positions in sectors that have seen substantial gains, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower concept [3][10] - Medium-term investments should target growth sectors with high elasticity, including AI infrastructure, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robotics, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3][12]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced an increase driven by optimistic expectations regarding tariff negotiations and economic conditions, with NYMEX light crude oil futures rising by $0.78 to $66.03 per barrel, a 1.2% increase, and Brent crude oil futures up by $0.67 to $69.18 per barrel, a 0.98% increase [1][2] - The optimism in the market is attributed to progress in U.S. tariff negotiations, which is expected to help avoid the worst-case scenarios [1] - The Chicago Fed reported that the national economic activity index for June was -0.1, better than the market expectation of -0.16 and the previous month's -0.28 [1] Group 2 - Barclays oil analyst Amarpreet Singh noted that OPEC+ member countries are accelerating their exit from voluntary production cuts, indicating growing optimism about the oil market outlook [2] - Strong oil demand is supported by U.S. oil inventory levels, refining margins, and high-frequency trade data, while U.S. production appears to be declining from its peak [2] - Reports suggest that the Trump administration plans to allow Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela, although details remain undisclosed [2]

Core Points - Brazil's Vice President confirmed a conversation with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, emphasizing Brazil's willingness to negotiate on tariffs [1] - The dialogue was described as positive, although it was characterized as a private conversation [1]

巴西财长Haddad：有一些与前总统博索纳罗有关联的巴西人正在努力阻止与美国就关税展开谈判。 ...

Group 1 - The European Union has approved a measure to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products totaling €93 billion, following a period of trade negotiations that seemed to be progressing [1][5] - The retaliatory tariffs will target high-value industrial products such as aircraft, automobiles, wine, and electrical equipment, with the first round of tariffs already implemented earlier this year on items like soybeans and motorcycles [5] - The EU's decision comes amid a backdrop of positive economic data, with the Eurozone's July Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising from 50.6 in June to 51, indicating economic resilience [4] Group 2 - Following the announcement of the retaliatory tariffs, European stock markets experienced a sharp decline, reversing earlier gains that were attributed to positive economic indicators [2][3] - Analysts expect the European Central Bank to maintain its current policy stance, although there may be one or two interest rate cuts in the next six months due to the ongoing trade tensions impacting export performance and inflation [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The soybean oil futures market is in a weak state, with intensified competition between international cost support and loose domestic supply - demand. Short - term market volatility is increased by US soybean产区 weather disturbances and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline on August 1st, but high domestic inventory and weak palm oil exports limit the upward momentum. In the medium term, soybean oil is expected to maintain a pattern of bottom - building through oscillations [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overall Performance - On July 22, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed a downward trend. The main contract y2509 closed at 8,076 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or - 0.59% from the previous day. The trading volume was 297,000 lots, and the open interest was 521,000 lots. In the spot market, the average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,230 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume in the futures market shrank by 5.4% month - on - month, and the open interest decreased, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment. The spot market price also declined, with positive basis but light trading [3]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamental Analysis - Internationally, the soybean oil market is significantly affected by weather disturbances in US soybean - growing areas and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 68% due to continuous high - temperature pressure in the Midwest. Although rainfall in some areas has alleviated the drought, high - temperature risks remain in the next two weeks, supporting the cost side of the external market. With the August 1st tariff negotiation deadline approaching, the EU has prepared counter - measures, and the market is worried about trade frictions affecting the global soybean supply chain. - Domestically, the supply is loose, with continuous accumulation of soybean oil inventory and high pressure on oil mills to prompt delivery. Southern high - temperature weather suppresses catering consumption, and slow terminal pick - up of goods depresses the spot basis. The sentiment in the international oil market has cooled down. From July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 3.5% - 7.3% month - on - month, while production increased by 6.19%, weakening the supply - demand situation and indirectly dragging down soybean oil. However, biodiesel policies still provide support, as the US biodiesel tax credit policy continues to limit the downside space of oils [8][9]. 3.3 Conclusion and Outlook - The soybean oil futures contract y2509 continues to be weak. In the short term, weather disturbances in US soybean - growing areas and the tariff negotiation deadline on August 1st increase market volatility and raise the risk premium of the external market. But high domestic inventory and weak palm oil exports limit the upward momentum. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of weather speculation, the implementation of trade policies, and the resilience of biodiesel demand. It is expected that soybean oil will maintain a pattern of bottom - building through oscillations [10].

7月24日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价出现下跌，跌幅不大，价格对比之前还是高了很多。其 中，周生生黄金跌的最多，下跌14元/克，报价1015元/克，比最高价金店低了1元/克。上海中国黄金不 涨不跌，报价981元/克，还是最低价金店。今日最高与最低金店间价差缩小至35元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 今日金价 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 1012 元/克 11 1016 元/克 7 跌 周大福黄金价格 跌 六福黄金价格 1016 元/克 7 跌 周六福黄金价格 996 元/克 7 跌 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年7月24日） 金店报价 金至尊黄金价格 1016 元/克 7 跌 老凤祥黄金价格 1014 元/克 10 跌 潮宏基黄金价格 1015 元/克 1016 元/克 7 跌 周生生黄金价格 14 跌 菜百黄金价格 992 元/克 0 平 上海中国黄金价格 981 元/克 0 平 今日金店金价转跌，铂金价格继续下跌。还是周生生黄金，今日铂金饰品价格下跌11元/克，报价572 元/克。如果还想了解其他品牌铂金报价？欢迎留言告诉我们！我们将及时汇总更新，帮您掌握最新行 情。 今日黄金 ...

金十数据7月24日讯，Mediolanum International Funds固定收益主管Daniel Loughney预计欧洲央行周四将 按兵不动，并预计尽管欧洲央行的宽松周期已接近尾声，但未来六个月内可能还会有一到两次降息。他 指出："持续的关税谈判将损害出口表现，削弱短期增长潜力，并通过增加本地供给对通胀构成下行压 力。"Loughney认为，欧洲财政支出增加将部分抵消这一影响，但由于基建和供给导向的特性，这一过 程更为渐进且可能产生积极供给效应。 机构：欧洲央行今晚料暂停降息 未来半年内或恢复降息 ...

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