马来西亚总理：将在与美国国务卿鲁比奥的会晤中提出关税问题。 ...

金十数据7月8日讯，今天，日本贸易谈判代表与美国财政部长贝森特进行了约30分钟的通话。双方同意 继续就关税问题进行积极的磋商。日本继续寻求与美国达成互利共赢的协议。昨日，特朗普宣布将从8 月1日起对日本输美商品加征25%的关税。这为双方在关税正式实施前争取进一步谈判留下了一定空 间，但时间已经再次开始倒计时。 日本继续寻求与美国达成互利共赢的贸易协议 ...

美元兑日元短线走低，现报146.75。报道称，日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正与美国财长贝森特通了电 话。美国和日本同意继续就关税问题展开积极谈判，日本继续寻求与美国达成互惠互利的协议。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, with nickel ore prices slightly decreasing, an increase in intermediate product supply, the resurgence of tariff issues, and average market demand, it is expected that nickel prices will face pressure in the near - term and seek support downward. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For stainless steel, due to steel mill and nickel - iron production cuts, a slight decline in nickel ore prices, and the market being in the off - season with average spot transactions, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate weakly within a range in the near - term, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2508 opened at 121,730 yuan/ton and closed at 120,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 99,191 lots, and the open interest was 69,366 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a large negative line on the daily chart, with slightly lower trading volume and slightly higher open interest compared to the previous day [1][2]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Trump announced that the US government would release tariff letters or agreements with trading partners at 12:00 noon on July 7, and planned to impose up to 70% tariffs on some countries' goods starting from August 1. Any country aligning with the BRICS anti - US policy would face an additional 10% tariff. In June, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. As of the end of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.3174 trillion US dollars, up 3.22 billion US dollars from the end of May, an increase of 0.98% [2]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: In the Philippines, heavy rainfall and seasonal typhoons in the Surigao mining area slowed down shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. In June 2025, Indonesia's ferronickel metal production was 24,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.28%. The estimated ferronickel metal production in July was 26,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.31%. In June 2025, Indonesia's nickel wet - process intermediate product nickel metal production was 38,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 42.98%. The estimated production in July was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.98% and a year - on - year increase of 48.41% [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was about 1,500 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands in the market also decreased accordingly. The spot supply of refined nickel was sufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed, with average spot transactions. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 300 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,832 (- 227.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,470 (0) tons [2]. 3.2 Nickel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly operate within a range. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [3]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2508 opened at 12,760 yuan/ton and closed at 12,640 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,639 lots, and the open interest was 90,442 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a medium - sized negative line on the daily chart, with slightly higher trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day [4]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: Similar to the nickel market, heavy rainfall and typhoons in the Philippines' Surigao mining area affected shipping. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage was alleviated by production cuts. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also stopped production. Nickel - iron quotes were mainly in the range of 915 - 920 yuan/nickel (including bottom - hold tax) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The stainless - steel futures market was weak, with low market inquiry activity and insufficient transaction follow - up. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,725 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was also 12,725 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 125 - 275 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 907.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [5].

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：将与美国就关税问题展开谈判。 ...

尚未决定是否出席下周的二十国集团（G20）会议。 日本政府继续评估关税对经济的影响。 日本财务大臣加藤胜信：将与美国就关税问题展开谈判。 美国关税的最后期限已实际延长。 ...

Core Insights - The South Korean ETF listed in the US experienced a post-market decline of 0.6% [1] - The South Korean presidential office is set to hold a meeting to discuss tariff issues, with a proposal for talks with the United States [1] - The Japanese government is also scheduled to meet at 09:10 Tokyo time [1] - On July 7, President Trump announced that he had sent a tariff letter to South Korea, warning against retaliation [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Hong Kong Consumer Electronics Sector Companies and Industry Involved - **Companies**: Sunny Optical Technology, AAC Technologies, GoerTek, Q Technology, BYD Electronics - **Industry**: Hong Kong Consumer Electronics Sector Key Points and Arguments Market Sentiment and Tariff Impact - The potential re-imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on China could negatively affect market sentiment and valuations of consumer electronics companies [2][4] - Southeast Asian countries must meet a local value-added requirement of over 30% to enjoy lower tariffs, which may lead to increased costs for upstream supply chain companies [2] Sunny Optical Technology - Expected net profit for 2025 is projected at 3.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of over 30%, corresponding to an 18x P/E ratio [1][4] - Anticipated average selling price (ASP) for camera modules and lenses to increase by over 20% in the first half of the year, with a gross margin expected to reach 9% [5] - The company is optimistic about the demand for high optical specifications in domestic Android smartphones, with no immediate signs of weak demand for high-end models [6][10] AAC Technologies - Projected net profit for the first half of 2025 is 830 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of over 50% [11] - Full-year net profit is expected to be between 2.4 billion to 2.5 billion RMB, with a growth rate of over 30% [11] GoerTek - The stock price has risen significantly due to easing tariff pressures and a rebound in Apple’s stock price [15] - Expected revenue for 2025 is 3.5 billion USD, with a net profit of approximately 170 million USD, corresponding to an 18x P/E ratio [15] Q Technology - Anticipated net profit growth of over 150% in 2025, with full-year profits expected to exceed 700 million RMB [17] - The company is benefiting from optical specification upgrades and improvements in fingerprint recognition module profitability [18] BYD Electronics - Expected net profit for 2025 is projected at 5 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of about 19% [20] - The automotive business is expected to contribute significantly, with stable growth and a good performance from the metal casing business post-acquisition of Jabil [20][22] Overall Industry Outlook - The consumer electronics sector in Hong Kong has shown slight recovery, with expectations of further valuation improvements as tariff issues evolve [2][32] - Companies with strong performance and high earnings elasticity, such as Sunny Optical and AAC Technologies, are recommended for investment focus [32] Additional Insights - The automotive lens market is expected to grow significantly, with Sunny Optical aiming for a 20-25% increase in shipments [9] - The AI and AR glasses market is seen as a potential growth area for Sunny Optical, although short-term contributions may be limited [30][31] Valuation Context - Current valuations for Hong Kong consumer electronics companies range from 10x to 20x P/E, with potential for further recovery depending on actual performance and market conditions [32]

高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissmann认为，随着投资者押注经济表现处于不冷不热的理想状态，市场 对于关税问题"有点过于放松了"。如果关税的不确定性加剧，我们开始看到硬数据中出现一些负面影响 的初步迹象，市场可能会质疑目前对于理想经济状态的定价。预计征税的初步影响将在本月的第二季度 财报季中显现。市场仅预计关税只会影响一小部分公司。如果市场有任何理由开始对良好的盈利能力感 到担心，哪怕只是几个季度，可能也不得不略微重新定价。 ...

Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is once again overshadowing the financial markets [1] - As the deadline for tariff negotiations set by the U.S. approaches, global market tensions have increased, leading to declines in European and U.S. stock futures [2][5] - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on its automotive exports [3] Group 2 - U.S. Bank strategist Michael Hartnett suggests it may be time to sell stocks after the S&P 500 index reached a historical high following three months of gains [4][9] - Hartnett warns of rising bubble risks during the summer as the "Big and Beautiful" bill has been passed, indicating potential market corrections [10][11] - The report highlights significant capital outflows from U.S. growth stocks and mid-cap stocks, with $5 billion and $5.7 billion withdrawn respectively, marking the largest outflows since March 2023 [12][13] Group 3 - The June employment report may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout the summer, delaying potential interest rate cuts [14] - According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is over a 95% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July, with a 70% chance of a rate cut in September [15]