文 | WEMONEY研究室，作者 | 王彦强 近日，第二家上市农商行——江阴银行（002807.SZ）披露了上半年业绩报告。 据中报显示，2025年上半年，江阴银行实现营业收入24.01亿元，同比增长10.45%；实现归母净利润8.46亿元，同比增长16.63%。 从资产质量来看，2025年上半年，江阴银行的不良贷款率为0.86%，与上年末持平；而拨备覆盖率为381.22%，较上年末增加11.9个百分点。 整体来看，江阴银行业绩实现双增，但净息差依然承压，2024年上半年，该行的净息差为1.54%，同比下降0.22个百分点。 而值得注意的是，江阴银行上半年的投资净收益为8.82亿元，同比大增81.44%，占营收的36.72%。同期，该行经营活动产生的现金流净额为-58.50亿元，同 比下降621.51%。 WEMONEY研究室注意到，近年来，江阴银行的利息净收入占营收的比重在不断下降，而投资净收益占营收的比重却在持续攀升。 数据显示，2022年—2024年，江阴银行的利息净收入分别为31.93亿元、29.82亿元、28.03亿元，占营收的比重分别为84.49%、77.15%、70.75%。投资净收益 分别为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple banks in China have recently announced reductions in RMB deposit rates, affecting various types of deposits, with the highest cut reaching 20 basis points [1][2][3] Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Jiangsu Bank has lowered its 3-year personal fixed deposit rate from 1.85% to 1.75%, effective from August 20, while other terms remain unchanged [2] - Shen Zhou Rui Feng Village Bank has announced comprehensive rate cuts for personal fixed deposits, with 3-month rates dropping to 0.8% and 5-year rates to 1.3%, with reductions ranging from 10 to 20 basis points [2][3] - Jilin Longtan Huayi Village Bank has adjusted its rates, with the 3-month and 6-month rates down to 1.15% and 1.35% respectively, and 3-year and 5-year rates down to 1.75% and 1.7% [3] Group 2: Reasons for Rate Cuts - The primary motivation for small and medium-sized banks to lower deposit rates is to alleviate the pressure from narrowing net interest margins and optimize their liability cost structure [4] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has been reduced multiple times, leading to a decline in loan yields, while deposit rates have lagged behind, creating a "margin squeeze" effect [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The banking sector's net interest margin was reported at 1.42% as of the end of Q2, down 0.01 percentage points from Q1, indicating ongoing downward pressure on deposit rates [5] - Experts predict that the downward trend in deposit rates will continue in the short term, as banks seek to stabilize net interest margins and improve overall profitability [5] - Strategies for small and medium-sized banks to enhance core competitiveness include product innovation, refined asset-liability management, digital transformation, and focusing on local markets [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reported that East Asia Bank's (00023) first-half revenue met expectations, but net interest income and fee income were below forecasts, offset by trading gains [1] - Earnings per share exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations by 14%, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%, slightly below the forecast of 47% [1] - The interim dividend was set at 39 HKD cents, approximately 10% higher than Goldman Sachs' estimate of 35 HKD cents [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its earnings per share estimates for East Asia Bank for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 8%, 11%, and 24%, respectively, and increased the target price by 12% from 10.5 HKD to 11.8 HKD, maintaining a "sell" rating [1] - The management of East Asia Bank anticipates headwinds for net interest margin in the second half of 2025 and maintains a conservative outlook on loan growth [1] - Loan growth is projected to be 2.1%, 2.8%, and 4% year-on-year for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with deposit growth estimates adjusted to 5.5%, 3.9%, and 2.9% [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs assumes a net interest margin sensitivity (NIM beta) of 0.16 for the current interest rate cut cycle, slightly lower than the previous period [2] - Net interest margin forecasts for East Asia Bank for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.78%, 1.8%, and 1.75%, with corresponding net interest income expected to decline by 15%, increase by 5%, and increase by 0.4% [2] - Non-interest income estimates for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 11%, 8%, and 6% due to better-than-expected trading income performance [2] Group 4 - Credit costs for East Asia Bank are expected to be 97 basis points this year, normalizing to 80 and 55 basis points in 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Projected dividend payout ratios for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 46%, 49%, and 51%, indicating an average payout ratio of 49% over the next three years, compared to an average of about 40% over the past five years [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reported that East Asia Bank's (00023) first-half revenue met expectations, but net interest income and fee income fell short, offset by trading gains [1] - Earnings per share exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations by 14%, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%, slightly below the forecasted 47% [1] - The mid-term dividend was set at 39 HKD cents, approximately 10% higher than Goldman Sachs' estimate of 35 HKD cents [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its earnings per share forecasts for East Asia Bank for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 8%, 11%, and 24%, respectively, and increased the target price by 12% from 10.5 HKD to 11.8 HKD, maintaining a "sell" rating [1] - The bank's management anticipates headwinds for net interest margin in the second half of 2025 and maintains a conservative outlook on loan growth [1] - Loan growth forecasts for 2025 to 2027 were adjusted to 2.1%, 2.8%, and 4%, while deposit growth estimates were raised to 5.5%, 3.9%, and 2.9% [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs assumed a net interest margin sensitivity (NIM beta) of 0.16 times for the current interest rate cut cycle, slightly lower than the previous period [2] - Net interest margin forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 1.78%, 1.8%, and 1.75%, with corresponding net interest income expected to decline by 15%, increase by 5%, and increase by 0.4% [2] - Non-interest income estimates for 2025 to 2027 were raised by 11%, 8%, and 6% due to better-than-expected trading income performance [2] Group 4 - Credit costs for East Asia Bank are expected to be 97 basis points this year, normalizing to 80 and 55 basis points in 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Projected dividend payout ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 46%, 49%, and 51%, indicating an average payout ratio of 49% over the next three years, compared to an average of about 40% over the past five years [2]

Group 1 - Several banks have recently announced reductions in deposit rates, with some term products decreasing by 20 basis points, as a strategy to alleviate pressure on the liability side amid declining loan rates and narrowing net interest margins [1][2] - Jiangsu Bank has lowered its 3-year deposit rate from 1.85% to 1.75%, while other terms remain unchanged at 1.5% for 1-year and 1.6% for 2-year deposits [1] - Other banks, such as Shengzhou Ruifeng Rural Bank, have also adjusted their deposit rates, with rates for various terms reduced by 10 to 20 basis points [1] Group 2 - The banking industry is experiencing significant pressure on net interest margins, with the average net interest margin for commercial banks reported at 1.42% in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2] - Analysts suggest that the high proportion of fixed-term deposits in small and medium-sized banks leads to higher interest costs compared to demand deposits, necessitating a reduction in deposit rates to manage liability costs [2] - The recent stability in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) indicates potential for further declines to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [2] Group 3 - Banks are adopting proactive measures to manage both asset and liability sides, with Changshu Bank emphasizing cost control and optimization of deposit structures to reduce overall interest expenses [3] - Despite facing challenges from competition and regulatory pressures, small and medium-sized banks maintain unique advantages due to their geographical and relational strengths [3]

2025.08.21 LPR连续3个月"按兵不动" 8月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版LPR报价，1年期品种报3.0%，5年期以 上品种报3.5%，与上月持平 ，这是LPR连续3个月维持不变。综合市场分析来看，短期政策加码必要性 不强，8月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变符合市场预期。 【观国内】 国务院办公厅转发财政部《关于规范政府和社会资本合作存量项目建设和运营的指导意见》的通知。其 中提出，地方政府要根据经济社会发展需要、项目性质和财力状况，按照轻重缓急合理排序，优先实施 具有一定收益的项目，持续保障项目建成完工。 近日，财政部、税务总局发布关于育儿补贴有关个人所得税政策的公告，自2025年1月1日起施行。公告 称，对按照育儿补贴制度规定发放的育儿补贴免征个人所得税。公告提到，卫生健康部门与财政部门、 税务部门建立信息共享机制。县级卫生健康部门按规定为申领补贴的人员办理个人所得税免税申报。 市场监管总局20日对外发布《关于公用事业领域的反垄断指南（征求意见稿）》，面向社会公开征求意 见。指南征求意见稿指导公用事业经营者准确理解行为边界，针对不公平高价、拒绝交易、限定交易、 搭售、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that the profitability of commercial banks in the first half of 2025 has shown marginal improvement, with net profit reaching 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, but an improvement of 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter of 2025 [1][2]. Profit Performance - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks achieved a net profit of 1.24 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 1.1 percentage points from Q1 2025 [2]. - State-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks saw year-on-year net profit growth rates of 1.1%, -2.0%, and -1.1%, respectively, with quarter-on-quarter improvements of 1 percentage point, 2.6 percentage points, and 5.6 percentage points [2]. - The second quarter saw a recovery in the bond market, leading to a reduction in floating losses and potential for investment income realization [2]. Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for the first half of 2025 slightly decreased by 1 basis point to 1.42%, with a year-on-year decline of 13 basis points [2]. - The net interest margins for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.31%, 1.55%, 1.37%, and 1.58%, respectively [2]. Scale - As of the end of June, commercial banks' total assets and loans grew by 8.9% and 7.5% year-on-year, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 1.7 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points [3]. - The growth in total assets was primarily driven by bond investments and other non-loan assets [3]. Asset Quality - By the end of June, the non-performing loan balance was 3.43 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.4 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.49%, down 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 7 basis points year-on-year [4]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 211.97%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points [4]. Investment Recommendations - The marginal improvement in net profit growth, stable asset expansion, slight decline in net interest margin, and robust asset quality suggest a positive outlook for the banking sector [5]. - The report recommends focusing on joint-stock banks with historical risk clearance and low valuations, as well as quality regional banks benefiting from growth policies [5].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangyin Bank released its 2025 semi-annual report, showing revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders growth rates of 10.5%, 14.7%, and 16.6% year-on-year, with respective changes from Q1 of +4.45pct, +6.27pct, and +14.40pct [1] Highlights - Steady growth in scale and optimized loan structure: As of Q2 2025, interest-earning assets and loans grew by 10.6% and 7.0% year-on-year, with changes from Q1 of 7bp and -19bp respectively. The proportion of corporate loans increased while the share of bill discounting decreased. Personal loans saw a 21bp decline in proportion, with the largest drop in housing mortgage loans at 1.13pct [2] - Stable asset quality and strengthened risk compensation ability: The non-performing loan ratio remained at 0.86% as of Q2 2025, consistent with Q1, maintaining a steady decline trend since 2024. The new non-performing loan generation rate for H1 2025 was 1.30%, down 48bp from the previous quarter, with a provision coverage ratio of 381.22%, up 31.22bp [2] - Improvement in net interest margin: The net interest margin for H1 2025 was 1.54%, up 3bp quarter-on-quarter. In Q2 2025, the yield on interest-earning assets was 3.14%, stable quarter-on-quarter, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 5bp to 1.53%, indicating potential for further improvement as high-cost liabilities mature [2] - Decrease in cost-to-income ratio: The cost-to-income ratio for H1 2025 was 23.74%, down 1.57pct quarter-on-quarter [2] - Continued high growth in investment income: Other non-interest income grew by 37.6% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.95pct, driven by reduced market volatility and proactive cashing of financial investment gains, leading to an 81.44% increase in investment income [2] Concerns - Fee income remains under pressure: Net fee income decreased by 35.2% year-on-year in H1 2025, continuing the decline from Q1's -19.1% [3] - Volatility in quality forward indicators: The attention rate as of Q2 2025 was 1.10%, up 7bp from Q1. The proportion of loans in wholesale retail and construction sectors increased by 3.83% and 2.34% respectively, while the manufacturing sector's loan proportion decreased by 1.19%, necessitating further monitoring of potential non-performing loans in small and micro enterprises and real estate [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to achieve net profit growth rates of 5.68% and 6.97% for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with EPS of 0.87 and 0.94 yuan per share. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 5.29X and 4.95X for 2025 and 2026, and PB ratios of 0.56X and 0.52X. Considering the historical PB valuation center and fundamental conditions, a PB of 0.7 times the latest net asset value per share is suggested, corresponding to a fair value of 5.39 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, reflecting stability in the current economic environment [3][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The unchanged LPR rates align with market expectations, as the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate has also remained stable, indicating no changes in the pricing basis for LPR [4]. - The recent increase in market interest rates and the historical low net interest margins for commercial banks have reduced the motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The stability of LPR is attributed to a moderately strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the immediate need for adjustments to enhance counter-cyclical regulation [5]. - Both corporate and personal loan rates are currently at low levels, suggesting that lowering the LPR is not an urgent priority [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the marginal effects of interest rate cuts are diminishing, and alternative methods to reduce overall financing costs, such as lowering non-interest costs, may be more effective [5]. - If the Federal Reserve lowers rates in September, it could create a more favorable external environment for adjustments in China's monetary policy, potentially leading to a decrease in LPR [5]. - There is an expectation for stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market, with potential targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations and reflecting stable policy rates since May [2][4]. Group 1: LPR and Market Conditions - The LPR has maintained stability for three consecutive months since its decline in May, indicating a lack of immediate necessity for further reductions [2][4]. - Current loan rates for enterprises and residents are at low levels, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, down by about 45 basis points and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [4]. Group 2: Financial Institutions and Regulatory Environment - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% in the first half of the year, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter, suggesting limited motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [4]. - Future adjustments to policy rates and LPR quotes may have room for reduction as efforts to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market continue [4].