Group 1 - The Chuangye 50 ETF (159682) experienced a mid-session increase of 0.82% with a trading volume exceeding 57 million yuan, driven by gains in component stocks such as Jiangbolong, Sungrow Power Supply, Jinlang Technology, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and CATL [1] - On November 10, the Chuangye 50 ETF recorded a decline but attracted 99.05 million yuan in capital inflow, indicating strong investor interest despite market fluctuations [1] - The ETF tracks the Chuangye 50 Index, which includes sectors such as manufacturing, information transmission, software, and technology services, with key weighted stocks including CATL, Dongfang Wealth, and others [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities forecasts a gradual introduction of domestic capacity compensation electricity prices and continuous growth in overseas emerging markets, predicting a 40%-50% increase in global energy storage installations next year and a compound growth rate of 30%-50% over the next three years [2] - The company maintains a positive outlook on large-scale energy storage, integrated storage solutions, and leading energy storage battery manufacturers [2] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released guidelines to promote the consumption and regulation of new energy, focusing on large-scale development and high-quality consumption, with the aim of building a new power system compatible with high proportions of new energy [1] - Experts emphasize the importance of guiding various types of new energy development and enhancing the adaptability of the new power system, which will be crucial for large state-owned enterprises in the power generation, grid, and equipment manufacturing sectors [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is rated as 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with classifications including weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, and strong [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is strong, with both the expected and actual demand in the energy storage sector being robust [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 84,500 yuan, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest compared to previous periods. The 2601 contract has a closing price of 87,240 yuan, and its trading volume and open interest show different trends compared to historical data. For example, the trading volume of the 2601 contract on the current day is 986,569, an increase of 175,914 from the previous day [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract is -3,750 yuan, and between spot and 2601 contract is -6,490 yuan. The difference between 2511 and 2601 contracts is -2,740 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 966 yuan, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,180 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,750 yuan, showing an upward trend compared to previous periods [1]. - **Related Products**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary materials, phosphoric acid iron lithium, and electrolytes also show different changes. For instance, the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) is 149,325 yuan, an increase of 1,500 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 80,864 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 493 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,750 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,550 yuan/ton, also up 350 yuan/ton [2]. - **Policy News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a guidance on promoting new energy consumption and regulation, which aims to promote new energy consumption nearby and enhance the adaptability of the new power system to new energy, and improve the capacity price mechanism of regulatory resources [3]. - **Company News**: Ganfeng Lithium announced that the PPGS lithium salt lake project in Argentina has obtained the "Environmental Impact Assessment Report", and the project is expected to submit an application to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026. The project has about 1,507 million tons of LCE proven + controlled resources [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [2][7]. Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued guidelines to promote the consumption and regulation of renewable energy, aiming for a high-quality development phase in the renewable energy sector [1][5]. - By 2030, a multi-level renewable energy consumption regulation system is expected to be established, ensuring efficient integration and utilization of renewable energy sources [5]. - The report emphasizes the need for differentiated strategies for various types of renewable energy to enhance policy implementation efficiency and promote new consumption models and industry upgrades [5]. Industry Overview - As of September 2025, the installed capacity of wind and solar power accounts for approximately 46% of the total energy mix, highlighting the rapid expansion of renewable energy in China [5]. - The report notes significant regional challenges in energy consumption, with wind and solar abandonment rates reaching 6.6% and 5.7% respectively in the first half of 2025, indicating severe regional consumption issues [5]. - The guidelines categorize renewable energy development and consumption into five types, including "desert" bases and offshore wind power, to optimize energy distribution and enhance local consumption [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading national renewable energy companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy, as well as high-quality local offshore wind enterprises like Funiu Co. and Zhongmin Energy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent guidance from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aims to establish a multi-level system for the consumption and regulation of renewable energy by 2030, ensuring efficient integration and utilization of renewable energy sources [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159368) opened high and rose by 1.53%, with significant gains in its holdings, including a 20% limit up for Lai Co., over 10% increase for Shuneng Electric, and over 7% for Penghui Energy [1]. - The ChiNext New Energy ETF is the largest ETF tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, which covers various sectors including batteries and photovoltaics [2]. Group 2: ETF Characteristics - The ChiNext New Energy ETF has the highest elasticity, with a potential increase of 20%, and the lowest fee structure, with a total management and custody fee of only 0.2% [2]. - As of October 31, 2025, the ETF's scale reached 829 million, with an average daily trading volume of 90.05 million over the past month [2]. - The ETF has a significant focus on storage, with 58% of its holdings in storage and 31% in solid-state batteries, aligning with current market trends [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Huatai Securities expresses optimism about the steady increase in China's electrification rate, which will be mutually reinforced by grid upgrades and the development of new storage systems, accelerating the construction of a new power system [1].

Core Viewpoint - The solar energy sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by favorable government policies and market performance, particularly highlighted by the rise of the photovoltaic sector and related ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices opened higher on November 11, with the photovoltaic sector showing strong gains, including notable increases in stocks such as Shangneng Electric, GCL-Poly Energy, Canadian Solar, and Maiwei Technology [1]. - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (516880) rose over 1.7% as of 9:44 AM, reaching a new high for the year [2]. Group 2: Government Policy - On November 10, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released guidelines to promote the consumption and regulation of new energy, emphasizing the construction of advanced, safe, and efficient new energy storage [2]. - The guidelines aim to meet the annual demand for the reasonable consumption of over 200 million kilowatts of new energy by 2030, supporting the goal of carbon peak [2]. Group 3: Industry Index - The photovoltaic 50 ETF tracks the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index, which selects up to 50 representative listed companies involved in the photovoltaic industry chain to reflect the overall performance of these securities [2].

2025年11月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：高库存累增与印尼风险博弈，低位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：向上缺乏驱动，下方难言广阔 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：储能预期与现实双强，短期走势偏强 | 4 | | 工业硅：重心上移 | 6 | | 多晶硅：进入政策真空期，盘面交易供需逻辑 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 11 月 11 日 镍：高库存累增与印尼风险博弈，低位震荡 不锈钢：向上缺乏驱动，下方难言广阔 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 119,680 | 240 | -1,270 | -2,720 | -4,800 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of developing a new energy system and enhancing the consumption and regulation of renewable energy by 2035, with a focus on establishing a unified national electricity market [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" further clarifies the significance of the new energy system, highlighting long-term development priorities such as consumption, resilience, and electrification in power system construction [1] - According to CITIC Securities, there are medium to long-term opportunities in ultra-high voltage, flexible DC transmission, and smart grid sectors due to policy guidance [1] Group 2 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF tracking the China Securities Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors like transmission and distribution equipment, grid automation, and cable components [1] - The ultra-high voltage sector has a significant weight of 64% in the index, the highest in the market [1] - The green electricity ETF (562550) and its off-market connections (018734/018735) track the China Securities Green Power Index, which includes clean energy companies as well as transitional samples from thermal and nuclear power [2]

《意见》提出，大力推动新能源消纳新模式新业态创新发展。在创新新能源集成发展模式方面，《意 见》提出，研究制定促进新能源集成发展的政策举措，支持"沙戈荒"等新能源资源富集地区加强新能源 上下游产业链协同，建立集成发展产业体系。提升新能源装备制造绿电应用水平，实现"以绿造绿"。统 筹布局绿氢、氨、醇等绿色燃料制储输用一体化产业，打造"灵活负荷"。推进零碳园区建设。 在推动新能源与产业融合发展方面，《意见》要求，积极推进东部地区产业梯度转移和新能源基地就地 消纳协同对接，稳妥有序推动高载能产业向西部清洁能源优势地区转移。支持新能源资源富集地区实现 信息技术、高端装备制造、新材料等战略性新兴产业与新能源融合发展。加强新能源与算力设施协同规 划布局及优化运行，推动算力设施绿色发展。 在支持新能源就近消纳新业态发展方面。《意见》明确，推动源网荷储一体化、绿电直连、智能微电 网、新能源接入增量配电网等新能源就近消纳新业态健康可持续发展，支持新能源就近接入。此外， 《意见》还提出，完善促进新能源消纳的全国统一电力市场体系等。 11月10日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布《关于促进新能源消纳和调控的指导意见》。《意见》提 出， ...

Group 1 - The State Council issued measures to promote private investment, encouraging participation in low-altitude economy infrastructure and supporting the issuance of real estate investment trusts for qualified projects [1][1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to accelerate the development of key application scenarios in areas such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and industrial internet [2][2] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released guidelines to enhance the consumption and regulation of renewable energy, aiming for a new power system by 2035 [3][3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce announced that specific chemical exports to the US, Mexico, and Canada require licensing, while exports to other regions do not [4][4] - The Ministry of Commerce suspended countermeasures against five US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean for one year [5][5] - In October, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.282 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.3% [6][6] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in retail prices for gasoline and diesel, with an increase of 125 and 120 yuan per ton respectively, translating to an increase of 0.10 yuan per liter [7][7] - The Asset Management Association of China is seeking opinions on guidelines for managing thematic investment styles in public securities investment funds [8][8] - Southbound funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect net bought 6.654 billion HKD, bringing the year-to-date net purchase to over 1.3 trillion HKD [9][9] Group 4 - Zhongbei Communication signed a 1 billion yuan comprehensive service framework agreement with Hongxin Electronics [10][10] - Super Electronics plans to invest 1.468 billion yuan in Thailand for an AI computing high-end PCB expansion project [10][10] - Ganfeng Lithium announced that its PPGS lithium salt lake project has obtained an environmental assessment report with approximately 15.07 million tons of LCE resources [12][12] Group 5 - The US stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.81%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq up 2.27%, driven by gains in large tech stocks [17][17] - The Senate Majority Leader expressed hope for a vote on a temporary funding bill within hours, while the House Speaker indicated a vote could occur on Wednesday [18][18] - The Bank of Japan's Prime Minister plans to introduce a stimulus plan focusing on key areas such as chips and artificial intelligence [20][20]

Market Overview - On November 10, the A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53% to close at 4018.66, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.18% to 13427.61. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.92% to 3178.83 [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.17 trillion, an increase of 175.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The consumer sector experienced a significant rally, particularly in food and beverage stocks, which led the gains. Other active sectors included lithium batteries and solar energy, while the humanoid robot concept saw a decline [2] - Notable gainers included the liquor, tourism and hotel, and duty-free shop sectors, while gas, wind power equipment, and robotics sectors faced losses [2] International Market - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains on November 10, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 381.53 points (0.81%) to 47368.63, the S&P 500 increasing by 103.63 points (1.54%) to 6832.43, and the Nasdaq Composite up by 522.64 points (2.27%) to 23527.17 [4][5] - European markets also experienced upward movement, with the FTSE 100 rising by 104.58 points (1.08%), the CAC 40 increasing by 105.33 points (1.32%), and the DAX up by 390.03 points (1.65%) [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil futures rising by $0.38 to $60.13 per barrel (0.64%) and Brent crude oil futures increasing by $0.43 to $64.06 per barrel (0.68%) [4] Investment Trends - The investment community is focusing on the growth of the new energy vehicle market, with October retail sales reaching 1.282 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [8] - The Chinese government is promoting private investment in key infrastructure projects, encouraging private capital participation in sectors such as railways and energy [7] Fund Management - The China Fund Industry Association is seeking feedback on new guidelines aimed at controlling style drift and high concentration in theme-based investment funds, which have faced criticism in the past [6] Capital Flow - The liquor industry saw a net inflow of 29.81 billion, with a notable performance from Kweichow Moutai, while the consumer electronics sector experienced a significant outflow of 53.55 billion [12] - Key stocks with substantial net inflows included Cambridge Technology and China Duty Free, while major outflows were observed in Industrial Fulian and Xin Yisheng [13]