Economic Outlook - Economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth for this year and next, with GDP expected to grow by 1.8% in 2023, up from a previous estimate of 1.3% [2] - The upward revision is primarily due to significantly improved expectations for business investment [2] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a similar pace in 2026 [2] Employment Trends - The average monthly job growth in the U.S. is now expected to be 60,000 for this year, down from a prior forecast of 87,000 [2] - Recent months have shown a notable slowdown in job growth, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September [2] - Economists anticipate another 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, followed by a total of 75 basis points in cuts by 2026 [2] Inflation Expectations - The NABE group expects U.S. inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until next year [2] - The year-on-year increase in the PCE price index is projected to decline from 3% this year to 2.5% by the end of 2026 [2] Trade and Economic Policy - The economic outlook has been complicated by significant and frequently changing policy measures from the Trump administration, particularly regarding tariffs [2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been slower and more moderate than many economists had anticipated [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments regarding the Federal Reserve, including the Senate approval of Stephen Milan and the court's rejection of Trump's request to remove Governor Cook, highlight the ongoing political struggle over monetary policy in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Developments - Stephen Milan's appointment as a Federal Reserve Governor allows him to participate in upcoming monetary policy meetings, indicating Trump's efforts to influence the Fed are met with mixed results [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected Trump's attempt to remove Governor Cook, allowing him to remain until a final decision is made by the Supreme Court [1] Group 2: Trump's Economic Policy and Interest Rates - Trump is pushing for interest rate cuts to weaken the dollar, reduce corporate financing costs, and alleviate government debt burdens, viewing these cuts as essential for implementing his economic policies [2][3] - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts due to concerns over inflation, despite strong consumer demand and limited signs of recession [2] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Data - Recent adjustments to employment data show a downward revision of 911,000 jobs, indicating that previous employment strength may have been overstated [3] - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, raising concerns about the labor market [3] Group 4: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are high, with a 96.1% probability, while a 50 basis point cut is seen as unlikely [4] - The consensus among Federal Reserve members is leaning towards a cautious approach to rate cuts, with only new member Milan advocating for a more aggressive reduction [4] Group 5: Future Rate Cut Projections - Market forecasts suggest a likelihood of 50, 75, and 100 basis point cuts by 2025 at 24.1%, 71.6%, and 2.9% respectively, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [5] - Despite some signs of slowing employment, consumer spending remains robust, reflecting the resilience of the U.S. economy [5] Group 6: Inflation Concerns - Current inflation data shows the CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, with core CPI also at 3.1%, indicating that inflation concerns persist despite expectations of rate cuts [6] - The yield curve reflects market skepticism about the effectiveness of rate cuts in fully stimulating economic activity, with short-term rates falling while long-term rates remain high [6] Group 7: Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - Trump's influence over the Federal Reserve is expected to increase as he appoints new members aligned with his economic policies, potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts [7] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is increasingly challenged by political pressures, raising concerns about the future of its monetary policy decisions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term neutral interest rate has slightly increased, but the extent is not significant. Current policies may have a moderate restrictive effect [1] Group 1 - The progress of reducing the balance sheet has been very smooth so far [1] - There are concerns that a rate cut in October could fuel inflation in the U.S. [1] - While a rate cut may benefit the job market, it carries inflation risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is leaning towards further interest rate cuts, with most participants in the September meeting believing that easing monetary policy may be appropriate for the remainder of the year, although there are still internal disagreements regarding the timing and pace of future cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4% and 4.25% due to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market [2]. - There is a classic dilemma facing the Federal Reserve: the potential weakness in the labor market versus persistently high inflation, leading to significant internal disagreements on the timing and pace of future rate cuts [2][3]. - Some officials expressed reservations about the September rate cut, suggesting that maintaining the rate could also be justified given that recent indicators did not show a sharp deterioration in the labor market [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Government Shutdown - The U.S. federal government shutdown on October 1 has resulted in a lack of timely releases of key economic data such as non-farm payrolls and inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming meeting on October 28-29 [4]. - The shutdown may lead to a significant increase in the risk of misjudgment for the Federal Reserve, as it will have to rely on scattered private data and feedback from businesses [4]. - Market expectations currently fully price in a rate cut at the October meeting, with a 90% probability of another cut in December, influenced by potential job losses and economic output declines due to the government shutdown [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts from Tianfeng Securities believe that the government shutdown has increased expectations for two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, as it could negatively impact employment and GDP [5]. - The shutdown creates a "black box" for economic data, amplifying uncertainty and affecting market expectations regarding the economy [5]. - Concerns over rising debt and interest pressures are eroding the growth potential of the U.S. economy, with current debt rates around 3.4%, suggesting that a small rate cut may not address the fundamental issues [5].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve officials showed willingness for further rate cuts this year, but expressed caution due to inflation concerns [1][4] - Most participants in the meeting believe that easing policies further in the remaining months of the year may be appropriate [1] - The FOMC highlighted the upward risks to the inflation outlook, noting that inflation data could deviate further from the 2% target [1] - The IMF President warned that the combination of service inflation and tariff costs could exacerbate the inflation outlook in the U.S. [4] Summary by Category Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is considering further rate cuts this year, with a majority of officials supporting this move while remaining cautious about inflation risks [1][4] - Participants emphasized that the increase in tariffs has contributed to upward pressure on inflation, which may persist longer than expected [1] Inflation Concerns - There is a general consensus among Fed officials that inflation could remain elevated, with potential long-term impacts on inflation expectations following a period of high inflation [1] - The IMF President indicated that while tariff levels have decreased, uncertainties remain, and some costs may be passed on to consumers, potentially worsening inflation [4]

在美国通胀压力重新升温的背景下，至少有一位美联储官员对进一步降息持谨慎态度。 美联储堪萨斯城联储主席施密德周一表示，目前的利率政策"略具限制性"，但"正处于合适的位置"，央 行暂时无需急于采取更多宽松措施。 施密德在堪萨斯城CFA协会的讲话中指出，目前美国的通胀水平依然过高，美联储必须保持对物价 的"信誉与决心"，坚持将通胀率降回2%的目标。他表示："历史告诉我们，虽然通胀普遍令人厌恶，并 非所有通胀都需要以同样的代价去对抗，像新冠疫情期间那样由供需失衡引发的通胀，可以在不造成严 重失业或经济衰退的情况下得到控制。" 在9月的政策会议上，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4%– 4.25%，以应对劳动力市场放缓的风险。施密德作为当期具有投票权的委员，也支持了这次降息。他解 释称："鉴于劳动力市场出现降温迹象，我认为这一举措是平衡通胀与就业风险的适当风险管理策略。" 不过，在美联储青睐的通胀指标，个人消费支出物价指数(PCE)截至8月录得2.7%，核心PCE(剔除食品 与能源)为2.9%的情况下，施密德暗示自己对进一步降息持保留态度。他特别关注耐用品价格的回升趋 势，包括汽车、 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown is causing delays in crucial reports related to inflation, job creation, and unemployment, potentially impacting economic analysis and decision-making [1] - There is a risk that some inflation reports may not be produced at all due to the ongoing shutdown, which could lead to a lack of critical economic data [1] Economic Impact - The delay in inflation and employment reports may hinder the ability of analysts and policymakers to assess the current economic conditions accurately [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the availability of these reports could affect market sentiment and investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the unexpected decline in the ADP employment data for September has intensified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October [1][6][12] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 50,000 jobs, and a revision of previous data showed a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs over the past year [6][8] - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by a slowdown in the labor market and rising inflation, creating a challenging scenario for the Federal Reserve to balance economic growth and inflation control [7][8] Group 2 - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, which has raised concerns in the market, particularly affecting the release of economic data that the Federal Reserve relies on for decision-making [9][10][11] - The shutdown has led to the suspension of various public services and the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal employees, which could further complicate the economic outlook [10][11] - Analysts suggest that if the government shutdown continues, it may lead to a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, potentially maintaining the guidance from September [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson anticipates a growth rate of approximately 1.5% for the U.S. economy for the remainder of the year, indicating potential pressure on the job market without Fed policy support [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Inflation - Jefferson supports a 25 basis point rate cut during the Fed's policy meeting on September 16-17 to balance the risks of persistent inflation above target levels and the observed threats to the job market [1] - He expects inflation to begin declining towards the Fed's 2% target after this year [1] Group 2: Job Market and Policy Uncertainty - The current job market is gradually softening, suggesting that without support, it may face pressure [1] - Jefferson highlights high uncertainty in his baseline forecast due to the impacts of the current U.S. government's new policies on employment and inflation [1] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - The effects of trade, immigration, and other policies from the Trump administration are still evolving [1] - Although tariffs have a lower impact on inflation and other economic areas than some economists expected, Jefferson believes these effects will become more apparent in the coming months [1] Group 4: Interest Rate Adjustments - The Fed has already lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate adjustment since December of the previous year [2] - Following the last policy meeting, policymakers forecast two additional rate cuts for the remainder of the year [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a new historical high, with London spot gold closing at $3,759 per ounce (up 2.0% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 853 yuan per gram (up 3.3% week-on-week) [1] - The U.S. announced a new round of high tariffs on various imported products, including a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical products, 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on imported furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks, indicating ongoing trade protectionism [1] - U.S. inflation remains stable, with August core PCE at 2.9% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, which may support the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September may enhance the investment value of gold, alongside uncertainties from tariffs, U.S. debt credit risks, and concerns over the Fed's independence, contributing to a downward trend for the dollar [1] - Central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, indicating that gold is on a path towards a new cycle of investment [1] Group 3 - Key signals to watch for the upcoming week regarding gold ETFs include the U.S. employment data for September [2]