Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. November CPI year-on-year increased by 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1% and down from 3.0% in September[2] - Core CPI year-on-year rose by 2.6%, below the expected 3.0% and unchanged from September[2] - The unexpected slowdown in CPI was primarily driven by significant declines in household food and core services prices[2] Key Influences on CPI - Food prices decreased from 3.1% in September to 2.6% in November, with household food prices dropping from 2.7% to 1.9%[2] - Energy prices increased from 2.8% in September to 4.2% in November, influenced by low base effects and winter demand[2] - Core goods prices showed resilience, with clothing prices rising from -0.1% to 0.2% and new car prices slightly declining from 0.8% to 0.6%[2] Housing Market Insights - Housing prices fell sharply to 3.0% in November from 3.6% in September, contradicting other indicators of a recovering housing market[2] - Rent and owners' equivalent rent both decreased by 0.4 percentage points from September, indicating a significant cooling in the housing market[2] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock markets rose, while gold initially surged before declining, and the dollar index experienced volatility[2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January 2026 is estimated at 27.7%[4] - The report suggests that the weak reference nature of the November inflation data may lead to a higher likelihood of the Fed adopting a wait-and-see approach rather than cutting rates[2]

Group 1 - Gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4,355 per ounce [1] - Gold-related ETFs are showing mixed performance, with 华夏 ETF down 0.07% and 黄金股 ETF down 0.18%, while 有色金属 ETF is up 1.61% [1] - The latest inflation data from the U.S. is perceived positively, with Fed's Goolsbee suggesting that if inflation shows clear signs of cooling, interest rates could be lowered significantly [1] Group 2 - The majority of Fed members supported interest rate cuts in the November meeting, although Goolsbee opposed this view [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) maintains that U.S. inflation is not a significant issue, with both overall and core CPI in November being significantly lower than expected [1] - Market concerns regarding inflation are diminishing, which may not hinder the pace of potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [1]

Macro Economic Group - The November CPI in the US was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating a reduction in inflation pressure [4] - The core CPI for November was 2.6%, also below the expected 3.0%, marking the lowest level since early 2021 [4] - The market reacted positively, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.38%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones experienced slight declines [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - OpenAI plans to raise $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation by Q1 2026, with sovereign wealth funds expected to participate [7] - The price of electrolytic manganese in China has risen for 13 consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of nearly 15%, reaching an average price of 17,820 yuan/ton, the highest since May 2022 [7] - The average price of electrolytic manganese for the first 11 months of the year was around 15,000 yuan, indicating a more than 7% increase compared to the average price in 2024 [7] - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing prices and reducing internal competition, supporting a positive outlook for non-ferrous metals [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The price difference between peak and valley electricity rates in 25 provinces has narrowed, with Zhejiang's average price difference dropping from 0.83 yuan/kWh to 0.52 yuan/kWh, leading to a nearly 40% decrease in project returns [9] - The payback period for projects has extended from 5.4 years to 9.1 years due to these changes [9] - The storage industry is experiencing short-term cooling but maintains a long-term positive outlook as demand for storage is expected to rise with increased new energy installations [9] Consumer Group - The micro-short drama sector is entering a golden development phase, with a projected market size of 67.79 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.4% [11] - The industry is transitioning from a single genre to diversified innovation, with IP and branding becoming core growth drivers [11] - Brand collaborations are increasing, with 233 brand cooperation micro-short dramas launched from January to August 2025, indicating a mature monetization path [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2,2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 2) Core View - The zinc market is in a sideways oscillation state [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 23,035 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,071.5 dollars/ton, up 1.20% [1] - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 86,320 lots, a decrease of 17,545 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 13,235 lots, a decrease of 7,726 lots. The open interest of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 83,725 lots, an increase of 2,951 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 227,012 lots, a decrease of 395 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -21.57 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.1 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventories**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 45,949 tons, a decrease of 1,920 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 99,400 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons [1] [News] - Trump stated that the next Fed Chair must be a "super - dove" and will soon announce the candidate, believing the mortgage rate will further decline and that the new chair should consult with him on interest rate setting [2] - US inflation slowed more than expected in November, with the core CPI rising 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since 2021. Despite data noise and technical interference, the cooling inflation trend provides hope for the market and strengthens the discussion on future interest rate cuts [2][3]

%56789:;<=>?2025-12-19 !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) CPI !"#$%&'()*+,-. ——!"#$%&'(! ■ 34 经济数据短期波动风险，上游价格快速上涨风险 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观数据丨 2025/12/19 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 12 月 18 日晚美国劳工部公布 11 月通胀数字。其中： 同比：CPI+2.7%，预期+3.1%，前值+3.0%；核心 CPI+2.6%，预期+3.0%，前值+3.0%。 &'"( ■ 11 ! CPI "#$%&'() 本次美国 11 月 CPI 整体低于市场预期，通胀显示进一步降温迹象。数据显示，CPI 同 比为 2.7%，略低于市场预期的 3.1%；核心 CPI 同比回落至 2.6%，同样弱于预期。从结 构看，住房通胀明显降温，超级核心服务价格涨幅同步放缓，核心商品与服务环比走 弱，通胀动能边际减弱。不过，由于联邦政府停摆导致 10 月数据缺失、采集周期被压 缩，部 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data Impact - The release of the November CPI report in the U.S. has been delayed from December 10 to December 18 due to the government shutdown, affecting data collection from October 1 to November 12[3] - The absence of October data complicates trend analysis, as the BLS confirmed that key CPI components relying on manual collection were not gathered during the shutdown[4] - The report's quality is questioned due to a reduced sample size, with data collection expected to be around 75% of normal levels, leading to increased volatility and statistical errors[4] Group 2: Methodological Concerns - The CPI calculation will use a carry-forward methodology, assuming zero price changes for items not sampled in October, which may lead to a technical downward bias in the data[5] - The rental data, which has the largest weight in CPI, may only reflect half of the normal increase due to the lack of October data, potentially causing a rebound in April when the data is resampled[8] - The sampling period coincided with holiday promotions, likely leading to an underestimation of prices, particularly for goods[11] Group 3: CPI Results - The CPI year-over-year increased by 2.7% in November, lower than the previous 3.0% and below the expected 3.1%[8] - Core CPI year-over-year rose by 2.6%, also below expectations and the previous value of 3.0%[8] - Core goods inflation showed a significant slowdown, with an average month-over-month increase of only 0.03%, far below the market expectation of 0.3%[9]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of precious metals, including price, trading volume, position, ETF holdings, inventory, and spreads, along with macro and industry news [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price**:沪金2602 closed at 980.50 with a 0.08% daily increase, and 980.20 in the night session with a 0.02% increase; Comex黄金2602 closed at 4363.90 with a -0.17% decrease.沪银2602 closed at 15521 with a 0.06% increase, and 15228.00 in the night session with a -1.42% decrease; Comex白银2602 closed at 65.450 with a -1.49% decrease [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**:沪金2602 had a trading volume of 241,116, a decrease of 34,773 from the previous day, and a position of 196,752, a decrease of 353. Comex黄金2602 had a trading volume of 228,606, an increase of 22,920, and a position of 346,701, an increase of 6,132.沪银2602 had a trading volume of 1,571,738, a decrease of 55,330, and a position of 363,402, a decrease of 25,592. Comex白银2602 had a trading volume of 110,401, a decrease of 34,610, and a position of 114,701, unchanged [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR黄金ETF held 1,052.54, unchanged from the previous day; SLV白银ETF held 16,018.29 (the day before yesterday), unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**:沪金 inventory was 91,716 kg, a decrease of 6; Comex黄金 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 35,991,345 troy ounces, unchanged.沪银 inventory was 912,164 kg, an increase of 240; Comex白银 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 452,950,783 troy ounces, a decrease of 895,355 [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between 黄金T+D and AU2602 was -5.82, unchanged; the spread between 沪金2602 and 2606 contracts was N/A. The cost of the spread arbitrage between buying 沪金 in December and selling in June was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87. The spread between 白银T+D and AG2602 was 57, an increase of 40; the spread between 沪银2602 and 2606 contracts was -13,933, a decrease of 414 [1]. Macro and Industry News - US inflation slowed more than expected, with the core CPI in November rising 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since 2021. Some economists suspect data distortion due to a government shutdown [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week fell to 224,000, reversing the previous upward trend [4]. - The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, reiterating that inflation will return to the 2% target in the medium term and not providing clear easing guidance. ECB officials said the rate - cut cycle may have ended [6]. - The Bank of England made a "hawkish" 25 - basis - point rate cut, passing by a 5 - 4 vote, and said it would be more difficult to judge further easing [6]. - Trump said the next Fed chair must be "super - dovish" and would soon announce the candidate, praising Waller and Bowman [6]. - In October, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasuries by over $10 billion, while China's holdings decreased and Canada's decreased significantly [6]. - Wu Qing attended the founding meeting of the Academic Committee of the China Capital Market Society and held a symposium on experts for the "15th Five - Year Plan" of the capital market [6]. - Germany unprecedentedly increased its bond - issuance scale for next year to 512 billion euros for infrastructure and defense [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of gold is 0, and that of silver is 0, indicating a neutral view [5].

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the release of the US CPI report due to the government shutdown has led to significant data gaps, particularly for October, which may result in increased statistical noise and reduced effectiveness as a policy indicator [1][5][7]. Group 1: CPI Data Analysis - The US CPI for October to November increased by 2.7% YoY, lower than the previous value of 3.0% and below the expected 3.1% [2][11]. - The core CPI increased by 2.6% YoY, also below expectations and the previous value of 3.0% [2][11]. - The significant weakness in core CPI is attributed to the BLS's assumption of zero growth for October prices, which affected the largest components, particularly housing [2][12]. Group 2: Statistical Methodology - The BLS employed a carry-forward methodology for CPI calculation, assuming no price changes for certain items during the data collection gap, which artificially suppressed the reported inflation figures [7][8][9]. - The absence of October data means that the CPI calculation for housing (OER) may only reflect half of the expected increase, leading to a potential rebound in future data [9][12]. Group 3: Core Goods and Services Inflation - Core goods inflation showed a significant slowdown, with an average monthly increase of only 0.03%, far below the expected 0.3% [3][13]. - Core services inflation also fell short of expectations, with an average monthly increase of just 0.08%, primarily due to weak performance in OER and major residence rent [14][15]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Initial jobless claims fell to 224,000, aligning with market expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.897 million, slightly above expectations [4][16]. - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts remained stable, with a 47.3% probability of a cut in March [4][16]. Group 5: Sector Performance - The stock market rebounded, with major indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 showing gains, particularly in sectors like technology and semiconductors [4][17]. - Risk appetite improved, with sectors like engineering, software, and consumer discretionary also performing well, while energy and financial sectors lagged [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices experienced a slight decline due to profit-taking by short-term traders, despite initially rising to a two-month high following lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since July and below the market forecast of 3.1% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, also falling short of the expected 3.0% [1] - The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing survey indicated a December manufacturing outlook index of -10.2, significantly lower than the expected 3.0 [1] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending on the 13th were reported at 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates, resulting in minimal initial reaction in the gold market, which still held a high support level despite widespread profit-taking [2] - Silver futures for March delivery fell by 2.17%, closing at $65.45 per ounce [3]

受美国通胀低于预期提振，金价抹去了隔夜跌幅上涨，一度触及两个月高位，但最终以微跌收盘。短期 交易者获利回吐导致白银价格走低，但较早前的暴跌有所回升。 新华财经纽约12月18日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价 18日下跌0.23%，收于每盎司4363.9美元。 美国劳工部18日公布的数据显示，截至13日当周，经季节性调整后的首次申请失业救济人数为22.4万 人，较上周修正后的23.7万人减少了1.3万人，符合市场预期。 如市场预期，欧洲央行当日维持利率不变。黄金市场对欧洲央行货币政策决定最初反应波动不大，在经 历广泛获利回吐同时，仍保持着较高的支撑价位。 当天3月交割的白银期货价格下跌2.17%，收于每盎司65.45美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国劳工部18日发布数据显示，美国11月份消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7%，为7月份以来最低水平，也 低于市场预测的3.1%涨幅。剔除食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率同比上涨2.6%，为2021年3月以来最低 水平，也低于市场预测的3.0%。 报告符合美国货币政策鸽派立场，引发美联储进一步降息预期。报告利好贵金属，利空美元。 当天发 ...