【资讯导读】 ·美国9月贸易逆差环比下降 ·美国上周初请失业金人数激增4.4万人 ·瑞士央行将利率维持在零水平 ·多家研究机构下调德国经济增长预期 ·OPEC对2026年全球石油供需的预测保持稳定 【市场资讯】 ·美国商务部11日发布的数据显示，美国9月商品和服务贸易逆差金额为528亿美元，小于8月修订后的 593亿美元，环比下降10.96%。 ·美国上周初请失业金人数激增4.4万人，达到23.6万人，这一增幅为2020年3月以来最高。 ·马斯克10日暗示，他旗下的太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）可能首次公开募股（IPO）。 ·瑞士央行连续第二次维持利率在0%不变，符合市场预期。与此同时，瑞士央行下调了未来两年的通胀 预期，但重申重返负利率门槛极高。 ·德国多家重要经济研究机构11日分别发布的冬季预测报告显示，受对美国出口明显下滑等因素影响， 2025年德国经济预计仅增长0.1%，较秋季预测的0.2%增幅再度下调。 ·石油输出国组织（OPEC）对2026年全球石油供需的预测保持稳定，认为世界市场将保持平衡，这与普 遍预测的供应过剩相悖。 ·日本央行内部人士透露，尽管日本10年期国债收益率飙升至1.97%的18 ...

12月11日晚间，美股道指与纳指走势突然背离，中概股盘中直线走低。黄金再度直线拉升。 美国劳工部周四数据显示，截至12月6日当周，初请人数增加4.4万人至23.6万人，为2020年3月以来最大增幅，此前一周的申请人数为三年多来的最低水 平。 美股个股方面，明星科技股甲骨文大跌逾15%，公司宣布FY2026财年资本支出预期将比Q1后的预测多出150亿美元. 纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.9%，哔哩哔哩跌超2%，阿里巴巴跌逾2.8%。 值得注意的是，黄金、白银再度走强，其中，现货黄金直线拉升，截至发稿涨至4243美元附近，一度挑战4200美元。COMEX黄金更是涨近1%。 晚间，美国有两则经济数据值得关注。 消息面上，美国上周23.6万人首次申领失业救济金，和前一周修正后首次申请失业救济金的人数相比增加了44000人。 据最新消息，摩根大通、摩根士丹利与花旗一致预测，明年1月美联储将再次降息。美国商务部长也表达了希望美联储继续降息的愿望。 晚间美股开盘后涨跌不一，其中，纳指跌幅较大，道指拉涨。 华尔街普遍认为，美联储12月会议虽流露鹰派信号，如内部罕见分歧、强调数据依赖，但并未动摇其宽松基调。市场主流预期仍指向明年初 ...

其中，9月出口金额为2893亿美元，环比增长3%，而当月进口金额为3421亿美元，环比增长0.6%。 新华财经纽约12月11日电（记者刘亚南）美国商务部11日发布的数据显示，美国9月商品和服务贸易逆 差金额为528亿美元，小于8月修订后的593亿美元，环比下降10.96%。 （文章来源：新华社） 数据显示，由于进口增速大于出口增速，今年前三季度，美国商品和服务贸易逆差金额为1126亿美元， 同比增长17.2%。 数据显示，9月商品出口金额增加88亿美元，消费品出口增加41亿美元。同期，商品进口金额增加17亿 美元，消费品进口增加102亿美元，但资本货物进口显著减少56亿美元，工业原材料进口微增。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in September, reaching its lowest level in over five years, driven by accelerated export growth and only a slight increase in imports, indicating that trade may have contributed to economic growth in Q3 [1][4]. Trade Deficit Data - The trade deficit decreased by 10.9% in September, falling to $52.8 billion, the lowest since June 2020 [1][4]. - Economists had predicted the trade deficit would widen to $63.3 billion, but the report was delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown [1][4]. Export and Import Performance - U.S. exports rose by 3.0% in September, reaching $289.3 billion, with goods exports surging by 4.9% to $187.6 billion, and consumer goods exports hitting a record high [1][4]. - Imports increased by 0.6% to $342.1 billion, with goods imports also rising by 0.6% to $266.6 billion; however, imports of cars, parts, and engines fell to the lowest level since November 2022 [1][4]. Economic Impact - The narrowing of the trade deficit is seen as a potential boost to the U.S. GDP growth, which was previously estimated at an annualized rate of 3.5% for Q3 by the Atlanta Federal Reserve [2][6]. - In Q1, trade had a record negative impact on U.S. GDP, dragging it down by 4.68 percentage points, but this was fully offset in Q2, contributing to GDP growth [2][5].

新华社纽约12月11日电（记者刘亚南）美国商务部11日发布的数据显示，美国9月商品和服务贸易逆差 金额为528亿美元，小于8月修订后的593亿美元，环比下降10.96%。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in September to its smallest level since mid-2020, driven by an increase in exports [1][3] - The trade deficit for goods and services decreased by nearly 11% from the previous month, reaching $52.8 billion, while economists had forecasted a deficit of $63.1 billion [1][3] - U.S. exports rose by 3%, reaching the second-highest level on record, primarily supported by non-monetary gold and pharmaceutical preparations, while imports increased only modestly by 0.6% [1][3] Economic Impact - The fluctuations in trade due to U.S. tariff policies have caused significant monthly volatility in trade data, which in turn affects government economic activity indicators, particularly GDP [1][3] - The September trade data will assist economists in adjusting their estimates for third-quarter GDP [1][3] Adjusted Figures - According to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast, net exports contributed 0.86 percentage points to third-quarter growth [2][4] - After adjusting for inflation, the September goods trade deficit narrowed to $79 billion, marking the smallest level in nearly five years [2][4] - Adjusted for price changes, consumer goods exports reached a record high [2][4]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit in September significantly narrowed to $52.8 billion, the smallest since mid-2020, driven by a surge in exports [1][2] - Exports rose by 3% to reach the second-highest level on record, primarily due to substantial increases in non-monetary gold and pharmaceutical exports [1] - Imports experienced a modest growth of 0.6%, indicating a favorable trade balance that could support GDP growth in the third quarter [1][2] Trade Data Summary - The September trade deficit decreased by nearly 11% month-over-month, falling below market expectations of $63.1 billion [1] - Adjusted for inflation, the goods trade deficit narrowed to $79 billion, marking the lowest level in five years [1] - The export of consumer goods, excluding price factors, reached a historical high, showcasing strong demand [1] Import and Export Dynamics - Notably, non-monetary gold exports hit a record high, reversing previous concerns over tariff-induced import spikes [2] - There was a significant rebound in pharmaceutical imports, while capital equipment and automobile imports declined, alongside a general weakening in consumer goods imports such as mobile phones and appliances [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the U.S. Department of Commerce indicates a narrowing of the trade deficit in September, driven primarily by a reduction in the goods trade deficit, although cumulative trends show ongoing pressure on the overall trade balance [1] Trade Data Summary - In September, U.S. exports of goods and services reached $289.3 billion, an increase of $8.4 billion month-over-month [1] - Imports for the same month totaled $342.1 billion, with a slight increase of $1.9 billion [1] - The overall trade deficit for September narrowed to $52.8 billion, marking the smallest level since mid-2020 [1] Goods and Services Breakdown - The goods trade deficit decreased by $7.1 billion to $79 billion in September, which was the main driver behind the overall deficit reduction [1] - The services trade surplus slightly narrowed by $600 million to $26.2 billion [1] Cumulative Trends - From the beginning of 2025 to date, the overall trade deficit has expanded by $112.6 billion compared to the same period in 2024, representing a 17.2% increase [1] - Total exports have grown by 5.2% year-over-year, reaching $125.1 billion, while total imports increased by 7.7% to $237.7 billion [1] Market Influences - The growth in September exports may have benefited from a rebound in certain manufacturing and energy product sales, while the sluggish growth in imports could be attributed to corporate inventory adjustments and changes in consumer spending patterns [1] - Despite the positive signals in monthly data, the structural imbalance in U.S. foreign trade remains unresolved [1]

美国的经济问题，表面看是买得太多、造得太少，但你要真信这只是民众太爱买买买，那就太天真了。 一条不起眼的新闻，2024年美国的贸易逆差达到了1.2万亿美元，创下历史新高，成了压在特朗普头上的一座山。 这可不是简单数字，而是经济结构恶化的冰山一角。特朗普气得在社交平台怒吼，说中国是贸易小偷，还不忘甩锅自 己曾支持的减税政策和失败的关税战。可现实比他嘴上那点火气更辣眼。 特朗普的战略核心其实很简单，出口多点，进口少点。 怎么实现？加税！对进口商品征收高关税，尤其是中国商品。 同时对本土企业减税，将企业所得税砍到21%，希望他们产能回归，实现所谓再工业化。 结果一边是高关税打压进口，抬高了本钱。一边是找不到本地替代，利润不断被吞噬。 更别说完善一套全新本地供应链，得耗费多少年和多少钱？ 最终这一招成了吞噬企业活力的剧毒药方。 理论上听起来不错，可操作下来，几乎全军覆没。 关键在于这是一对矛盾操作。减税确实刺激了居民消费。本就习惯于超前消费的美国家庭，手一松就开始大扫货。 像俄亥俄州一家普通家庭，两台中国制造的电视智能手机说买就买，关税加上去了？没关系，美国家庭很多时候更在 乎的是眼前的快感，而非商品价格。 于是在你 ...

Group 1 - Macron's visit to China initially showcased cooperation in nuclear energy and renewable sectors, but his tone shifted to a hardline stance upon returning to France, criticizing the trade deficit and threatening tariffs [1] - France's trade deficit with China reached $10.6 billion in the first ten months of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024, highlighting the imbalance in trade where China exports high-value products while France mainly exports traditional goods [1][2] - A report from CEPII indicates that Chinese manufacturing is surpassing Europe in high-end sectors, placing European industry on the brink of crisis [1] Group 2 - Macron's political pressure stems from domestic manufacturing decline and high unemployment, leading him to adopt a tough stance on China to appease voters and assert influence within the EU [2] - The notion of "trade imbalance" is contested, with data showing that nearly 40% of exports from European companies in China return to Europe, indicating that the profits are primarily retained by European firms [2] - The EU's trade policy requires consensus among its 27 member states, and Germany, with a trade volume with China exceeding $200 billion, may oppose Macron's tariff threats, complicating the situation [4][5] Group 3 - Previous attempts by the EU to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles demonstrated that tariffs do not resolve structural issues, as China's complete industrial chain and technological strength are not easily undermined by trade protection measures [7] - Macron's linkage of European technology export restrictions to China's rare earth exports is viewed as flawed logic, as these resources are essential for Europe's industrial upgrades [7]