1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The RMB is expected to be range - bound and may show stronger characteristics. The current economic situation shows that the economic expectation gap is favorable for the RMB, the Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is neutral. If US inflation or employment data weakens further, the RMB may test the 6.90 - 6.95 range. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of export settlement and changes in global risk appetite [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantity - price and Policy Signals 3.1.1 Quantity - price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side, and the Put - side volatility slightly decreasing [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Observation - The value of the counter - cyclical factor has shifted downwards, and the negative adjustment signal has strengthened. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [9]. 3.2 Fundamentals and Views 3.2.1 Macro 3.2.1.1 Interest Rate and Liquidity - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance on January 7 was 783.5 billion (- 89.2 billion), and the reserve balance of deposit institutions in November was 2.87 trillion (- 65.6 billion) [16]. 3.2.1.2 US Economic Data - Employment authority has declined, non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and inflation in November was lower than expected, supporting subsequent interest rate cuts. Economic expectations have been revised upwards, with a slight decline in PMI and a slight increase in real estate sales in November [18]. 3.2.1.3 Fed Chair Candidates - Trump has no plan to replace Powell for now and is open to the choice of the next Fed chair. Different candidates have different views on interest rate policies, such as Christopher Waller advocating for a cautious interest rate cut, Kevin Warsh calling for a large - scale balance sheet reduction to create room for rate cuts [19][20]. 3.2.1.4 Inflation - The CPI performance in the US in December was moderate, with a slight increase in the contribution of food and core commodities, a decline in the contribution of crude oil, and a decline in the contribution of core services. The pricing of interest rate cuts changed little after the data release [21]. 3.2.1.5 Non - farm Payrolls - In December, non - farm payrolls showed a K - shaped divergence. Employment in trade, transportation, construction, and manufacturing decreased, while employment in services, education, and healthcare continued to increase, and government employment also increased. The unemployment rate was affected by different factors, and the employment environment was deteriorating [24]. 3.2.1.6 Chinese Economy - There is a structural divergence in the Chinese economy. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but fixed - asset investment faced pressure and consumption slowed down. Against the background of increasing pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between fundamentals and sentiment has widened [25]. 3.2.1.7 December Exports - The characteristics of re - exports continued. Exports to the US and Canada decreased, while exports to ASEAN, India, and South Africa increased. Items such as automobiles, mechanical and electrical products, integrated circuits, and high - tech products showed obvious resilience, as did exports of raw materials such as aluminum and steel [27]. 3.2.2 2026 Monetary Policy - The policy focuses on reducing the re - lending rate by 25BP, setting up a 1 - trillion RMB re - loan for private enterprises, adding 400 billion RMB in technological transformation quotas, and reducing inventory of commercial real estate. The policy features "moderate in aggregate and precise in structure", and the RMB exchange rate maintains strong resilience supported by high - level foreign exchange reserves and stable settlement - sales surpluses [30]. 3.3 Core Content Interpretation 3.3.1 Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - In December 2025, the bank's foreign exchange settlement was significantly higher than its sale. The annual pattern was a net settlement. The settlement rate of received foreign exchange rose to 61.01%, and the purchase rate of paid - out foreign exchange fell to 55.41% [35][36]. - In December 2025, the bank's agent for overseas receipts was higher than payments, showing a surplus. The annual situation was a net inflow. In the current account, the contribution of goods trade was significant, increasing from about 726.66 billion in November to about 1259.22 billion in December, strongly driving the surplus in receipts and payments [43]. 3.3.2 Overall View - The RMB is expected to be range - bound against the US dollar. If US inflation or employment data weakens further, the RMB may show stronger characteristics, and there is a possibility of testing the 6.90 - 6.95 range in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of export settlement and changes in global risk appetite [47]. 3.3.3 2026 Scenario Deduction - Throughout 2026, there will be important events such as Fed chair candidate announcements, FOMC meetings, government work reports, and national two - sessions. These events will affect policy expectations, inventory cycles, and economic re - balancing, as well as lead to tariff games and changes in the Fed's stance [50].

在连续两日回调后，华尔街主要股指周四集体收高。芯片制造商台积电公布强劲财报，提振半导体板块 整体走强；与此同时，摩根士丹利和高盛业绩超出市场预期，推动金融股回暖。能源板块则在国际油价 大幅回落的拖累下走弱。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨292.81点，涨幅0.60%，报49442.44点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨58.27 点，涨幅0.25%，报23530.02点；标普500指数上涨17.87点，涨幅0.26%，报6944.47点。 热门股表现 大型科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨2.13%，亚马逊涨0.62%，Meta涨0.86%，谷歌A跌0.91%，苹果跌 0.69%，特斯拉跌0.13%，微软跌0.59%。 台积电股价收涨4.5%，此前公司公布再度刷新纪录的季度业绩，利润同比增长35%。该财报重新点燃了 市场对人工智能相关需求韧性的信心。 受此带动，费城半导体指数上涨1.76%，并创下收盘纪录。盘中该指数一度大涨近4%，但在尾盘有所回 吐，科技板块和纳指的涨幅亦相应收窄。 金融板块成为当日另一大支撑力量，摩根士丹利和高盛披露利好业绩，股价分别大涨5.8%和4.6%，双 双创下收盘新高。 高盛披露，第四季度净利润为46 ...

| | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 上证指数 | 日涨跌幅% -0.33 | 月内涨跌幅% 3.62 | 年内涨跌幅（%） 3.62 | 近一年走势 | | | 上证50 沪深300 | -0.21 0.20 | 2.46 2.62 | 2.46 2.62 | | | | 中证500 | -0.05 | 10.15 | 10.15 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 0.26 | 1.45 | 1.45 | | | | 恒生指数 | -0.28 | 5.05 | 5.05 | | | | 德国DAX | 0.26 | 3.52 | 3.52 | | | | 日经225 | -0.42 | 7.49 | 7.49 | | | | 英国富时100 | 0.54 | 3.10 | 3.10 | | | | 10年期国债期货 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.16 | | | 固收类 | 5年期国债期货 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | | 2年期国债期货 | 0.04 | -0.08 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's five-year government bond yields reached a historic high due to a significant depreciation of the yen, which has increased expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates sooner than anticipated [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar is raising concerns about increased import costs, which could accelerate inflation and negatively impact consumer spending [1] - Some market participants predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as April, while economists surveyed by Reuters believe a rate hike may not occur until July [1]

费城联储主席保尔森周三在一次采访中表示，"很多人都对他的领导力印象深刻，我自己也是其中之 一。"这是保尔森自去年7月上任以来，首次接受全国性媒体采访。 Timiraos在最新文章中提到，鲍威尔在周日披露，他正因美联储华盛顿总部翻修一事接受刑事调查，但 他表示，这项调查实际上关乎货币政策，以及特朗普总统希望降低利率的意图。 对此，保尔森说，"他的声明非常有力，我觉得已经不言自明了。鲍威尔是一位非常有效的主席，他的 前任们也是如此。几十年来，美联储一直拥有非常强有力的领导，这我认为对美国民众是有益的。" 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，美联储主席鲍威尔成了一个出人意料 的"民间英雄"，网络上流传着不少表情包，称赞他对美联储的掌舵能力。 费城联储主席保尔森（Anna Paulson）之所以知道这一点，是因为她20岁的儿子会把这些表情包发给她。 不过， 保尔森也表示，今年稍晚时候她可能会支持小幅降息：一是如果通胀数据验证她关于价格压力 正在缓解的判断；二是如果出现劳动力市场状况意外恶化的迹象。 保尔森特别关注将于下月公布的1月价格数据，因为企业往往在年初重新调整价格。 换言之， ...

2026年伊始，全球金融市场的目光再度聚焦于美联储的政策动向。一边是非农就业数据不及预期，一边是核心CPI数据持续降温。两 股力量相互拉扯，让市场对美联储的降息预期处于摇摆之中。与此同时，地缘政治局势暗流涌动，更为这一预期增添了诸多不确定 性。 作为全球货币政策的"风向标"，美联储的政策走向不仅关乎美国经济的复苏前景，更深刻影响全球金融市场的格局。多重变量交织 之下，美联储的货币政策路径愈发扑朔迷离。 就业放缓与失业率韧性并存 非农就业报告向来是美联储研判劳动力市场景气度的核心依据，而2025年12月的这份报告却"喜忧参半"，为政策决策增添了变数。 上周五，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国12月非农就业人口增长5万人，预期6.5万人，前值6.4万人。劳工统计局还修正了10 月和11月的非农新增就业人数。修正后，10月和11月新增就业人数合计较修正前低7.6万人。 让人意外的是，失业率有所回落。美国12月失业率降至4.4%，预期4.5%，前值4.6%。失业率低于市场预期，暂时缓解劳动力市场恶 化的担忧，一定程度上提升市场对于美联储将"按兵不动"的预期。 美国非农就业数据公布后，美元指数和美债收益率震荡回升，贵 ...

美东时间2026年1月15日（周四），美股收高，在台积电财报带动下，美股芯片板块普涨。原油价格创下自2025年6月以来最大跌幅。 道指涨292.81点，涨幅为0.60%，报49442.44点；纳指涨58.27点，涨幅为0.25%，报23530.02点；标普500指数涨17.87点，涨幅 为0.26%，报6944.47点。 CME"美联储观察"工具显示，美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降息25个基点的概率为 20.8%，维持利率不变的概率为78.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.9%。 堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长施密德于周四表示反对降息。他称通胀"过热"，并警告特朗普政府的政策可能进一步推动经济增长势头。 【导读】美股收高，银行股、芯片股领涨；原油大跌，黄金白银跳水 中国基金报记者 赵刚 综合整理 芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁古尔斯比表示，在有充分证据表明就业市场稳定的情况下，美联储应将重点放在降低通胀上。 美国上周初请失业金人数为19.8万人，预期为21.5万人，前值自20.8万人修正至20.7万人。 芯片股多数上涨 香港万得通讯社报道，美国白宫发布声明，美国从1月15日 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the US stock market, particularly in the technology and financial sectors, driven by strong earnings reports and robust demand for AI-related products [2][4][6]. - Major US stock indices saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.6% to 49,442.44 points, the S&P 500 up 0.26% to 6,944.47 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.25% to 23,530.02 points [4]. - The semiconductor sector experienced significant growth, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 1.76% to reach a new historical high, driven by strong performances from companies like TSMC and ASML [4][5]. Group 2 - TSMC reported impressive earnings for Q4 2025, with revenue of $33.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, and a net profit of approximately $16 billion, up 35% [4][5]. - TSMC's gross margin reached 62.3%, indicating strong cost control and pricing power despite expansion efforts [4]. - The company plans to increase its capital expenditure budget for 2026 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, with an expected rise in revenue contribution from advanced processes [4]. Group 3 - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both released strong quarterly earnings, boosting the performance of US financial stocks [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley's Q4 2025 net revenue was $17.89 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of $4.4 billion, up 18% [7][8]. - Goldman Sachs reported Q4 net revenue of $13.45 billion, a 3% year-on-year decline, but achieved record stock trading revenue of $4.31 billion [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - Major stock indices on Wall Street rose collectively after two days of decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 292.81 points, or 0.60%, closing at 49,442.44 points; the Nasdaq Composite increased by 58.27 points, or 0.25%, to 23,530.02 points; and the S&P 500 gained 17.87 points, or 0.26%, ending at 6,944.47 points [1] - The semiconductor sector strengthened significantly due to TSMC's strong earnings report, which reignited confidence in AI-related demand [2] - Financial stocks rebounded as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected earnings, with Morgan Stanley's stock rising by 5.8% and Goldman Sachs by 4.6%, both reaching new closing highs [2] Group 2: Company Performance - TSMC's stock rose by 4.5% after reporting record quarterly earnings, with profits increasing by 35% year-over-year, boosting market confidence in AI demand [2] - Goldman Sachs reported a fourth-quarter net profit of $4.6 billion, with diluted earnings per share of $14.01, a 12% year-over-year increase; Morgan Stanley's net profit grew by 18% to $4.4 billion, driven by a 47% surge in trading revenue [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.76%, reaching a record close, with intraday gains nearing 4% before tapering off [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating a resilient labor market [5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.6 basis points to 4.156%, while the 2-year yield increased by 4.4 basis points to 3.558%, with market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve remaining stable at about 5% [6]

堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，利率应维持在继续对经济施加一定压力的水平，以便通胀能够进一步降 温。 "鉴于通胀压力仍未消退，我倾向于将货币政策维持在温和限制性区间，"施密德周四在堪萨斯城一场活 动的预先准备讲话稿中表示。 他还指出："尽管劳动力市场已出现降温迹象，但要避免通胀前景恶化，这种降温态势或将持续一段时 间。" 市场普遍预计，在本月底的议息会议上，美联储将维持利率不变，投资者普遍认为，下一次降息或将推 迟至年中。当前，美联储基准利率——联邦基金利率的目标区间为3.5%-3.75%，这一水平已达到或接近 多位美联储官员口中的"中性利率"，即既不刺激、也不抑制经济的利率水平。 施密德周四重申，进一步降息恐难对就业市场起到提振作用。2025年美国就业增长本就疲软，他强调， 就业市场的放缓是由结构性因素驱动，而美联储的政策工具更适用于应对周期性经济下行。 "我认为，进一步降息难以修补劳动力市场的现存裂痕——这些压力的产生，很大程度上源于技术革新 与移民政策调整带来的结构性变革，"施密德坦言，"我担忧的是，持续降息可能会对通胀产生更持久的 影响，毕竟外界正对我们捍卫2%通胀目标的决心日益提出质疑。" 施密德还就美 ...