1月30日，本报记者登录多家银行App发现，工商银行、农业银行旗下多款投资类实物黄金产品已显示"暂时无货"，部分产品甚至全线断货。 在工商银行App贵金属的"投资专区"，其全线产品已显示断货。其中，核心产品"如意金"已全线售罄。该产品为工商银行发行的实物黄金，成色为Au999.9， 涵盖5克、10克、20克、50克、100克、200克、500克、1000克共八种规格。系统显示，该产品累计已销售超过181万套。 （工行如意金购买页面，来源：工商银行App） 报告特别指出，2025年中国投资者累计购入金条与金币达432吨，较2024年增长28%，同样创下年度历史新高。报告还认为，2026年一季度，在春节消费与 赠礼需求支撑下，中国黄金投资需求有望延续强劲态势；长期来看，全球地缘政治与经济不确定性将使避险需求维持高位，支撑黄金投资市场。 与此同时，多家国际机构看好金价未来走势。高盛在最新报告中将2026年底金价目标从每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元，预计各国央行将持续购金，同时私 人投资需求将随美联储降息而回暖。华西证券预测2026年金价涨幅或在10%-35%之间，杰富瑞集团甚至给出6600美元/盎司的目标价。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after a significant fluctuation in precious metals, gold and silver prices have declined again, with gold down over 1% and silver down over 2% as of January 30 [1][2] - The non-ferrous sector has experienced a broad pullback, with several stocks hitting the limit down, while Hunan Gold remains capped at the limit up. The non-ferrous mining ETF fell by 8.88%, with over 100 million yuan in trading volume and a net inflow of over 10 million yuan during the session [1][2] - Market perspectives suggest that the short-term drop in gold and silver prices is due to profit-taking by investors after prices reached new highs, with gold having risen for eight consecutive trading days and a cumulative increase of over 23% this month [3] Group 2 - Institutions remain optimistic about the resilience of gold in the medium to long term, with the World Gold Council indicating that strong demand for gold investment in China is expected to continue into Q1 2026, supported by consumer purchasing and gifting during the pre-Spring Festival period [4] - The report anticipates that geopolitical developments and economic uncertainties will maintain high levels of risk aversion, suggesting that gold investment may continue to show steady performance [4] - Huayuan Securities believes that the restructuring of the global monetary system will take a long time, and while the likelihood of significant selling of U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasuries as global reserve assets remains low in the short term, there is a trend towards increasing preference for gold and silver as alternatives [4]

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 (美元/盎司) | 伦敦银现 (美元/盎司) | COMEX黄金 (美元/盎司) | COMEX白银 (美元/盎司) | | AU2602 | AG2602 (元/千克) | AU (T+D) (元/克) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | (元/克) | | | (元/千克) | | 格眼踪 | 2026/1/29 | 5565. 88 | 118. 95 | 5595. 50 | 119. 05 | | 1252. 10 | 30055.00 | 1245. 20 | 29925.00 | | (本表数 | 2026/1/28 | 5264.93 | 114. 87 | 5258 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in global asset pricing logic from focusing on growth and policy to being influenced by conflicts and uncertainties, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical risks and their impact on investment strategies [3][4]. Group 1: Global Market Dynamics - Over the past decade, global asset pricing has primarily revolved around central bank policies, inflation trajectories, and economic growth, but this framework is changing due to prolonged geopolitical conflicts [4]. - The World Economic Forum's 2026 Global Risk Report identifies "geoeconomic confrontation" and "interstate conflict" as major long-term risks, indicating a heightened focus on tail risks among global investors [4][5]. Group 2: Impact of Geopolitical Risks - The changing landscape leads to three main impacts: asset prices becoming more sensitive to sudden events, increased risk premiums for safe and physical assets, and a decline in the effectiveness of relying solely on economic recovery and profit growth for asset allocation [6]. - The surge in gold prices above $5,000 per ounce and silver prices above $100 per ounce reflects the dominance of "conflict premium and safe-haven demand" in pricing, indicating a need for strategies that address both trends and uncertainties [6]. Group 3: China's Asset Advantages - China's assets are gaining recognition for their policy independence, which is particularly valuable in a high-uncertainty environment, as the country maintains a focus on stable growth and liquidity [9]. - This policy orientation suggests that Chinese assets are less exposed to external geopolitical conflicts, making them more attractive for long-term investors seeking stability and potential growth [9]. Group 4: Investment Reallocation - With the expiration of high-interest deposits and a low-interest environment, long-term funds are seeking new allocation directions, with potential flows into wealth management, insurance, public funds, and A-shares [10]. - The annualized return of the CSI 300 index at approximately 7.62% highlights the relative attractiveness of equity assets compared to other investment options, such as real estate and government bonds [10]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategy - A-shares are positioned as a core holding in investment portfolios due to their lower direct exposure to external conflicts and the potential for policy support [12]. - Satellite positions in portfolios should focus on commodities and macro strategies to enhance flexibility and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties [12].

1月29日晚，国际金价、银价一度保持大涨，现货白银日内涨幅一度达3.5%，报120.76美元/盎司，现货黄金一度大涨2%。 不过，接近午夜行情急转直下，现货金银开始大幅跳水，现货黄金连续跌破5400美元、5300美元、5200美元三道关口，截至发稿，跌幅5%，报5135美元/ 盎司；现货白银大跌7.82%，现报107.5美元/盎司。 另外，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜一度大涨10.32%，随后也跳水，收窄涨幅，截至发稿，报14105美元/吨。 对此，网友很不淡定： "刚买了4克黄金，跌没了" "昨天刚上车，就1克亏了一百多？" 此前，国际金价持续上涨，引发市场各方关注。自1月26日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司5000美元的重要整数关口后，国际金价在震荡中继续上涨，连续突 破多个重要关口，至29日突破每盎司5500美元，并一度逼近5600美元。自今年初以来，国际金价已累计上涨28%左右。 同时，北京时间29日晚，美股三大股指全部下跌，截至发稿，道琼斯指数跌0.13%，标普500指数跌0.75%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.64%。 多家美国科技巨头28日公布财报，业绩喜忧参半。 Meta大涨8%，此前该公司给出了好 ...

每经编辑｜陈柯名 现货白银跌至115.366美元/盎司，日内跌0.43%。 | W | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | | 115.366 | | 昨结 | 115.866 | | F | | 115.923 | | | -0.500 | -0.43% | 总量(kg) | 0.00 | | 现手 | | 0 | | | 最高价 | 118.466 O | 持 仓 | | | Ar | 참 | 0 | | | 最低价 | 113.701 0 | 壇 仓 | | | 内 | ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ | 0 | | | से मिये | 五日 HK 居K | | | 月Ｋ | | 甲子 | | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价: -- | | 盘口 | | | | 118.466 | | | | 2.24% | | 或1 115.431 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 21 115.388 | 0 | | | | ...

Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32%报 5410.80 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98%报 115.78 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约下跌 1.38%报 1202元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 2.1%报30358 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 29 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 3.43 吨， 当前持仓量为 1086.53 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 112.76 吨，当前持仓量为 15523.36 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 13.4%，维持利 | | | | | 率不变的概率为 8 ...

消息面上，美国国会参议院在程序性投票中未能推进已获众议院通过的政府拨款法案，美国联邦政府再 次面临部分"停摆"的危机。芝商所将纽约商品交易所(COMEX)铜期货保证金上调20%；将COMEX100 黄金期货初始保证金比例从5%上调至6%，新标准将于当地时间1月30日收盘后生效。 相关分析指出，金价冲高回落的格局，主要源于投资者在创纪录高位后的获利了结行为。尽管短期抛售 压力增大，但地缘政治不确定性持续发酵及美元贬值带来的避险需求，仍为黄金提供了逢低买盘的强劲 支撑。 1月29日，受美政府关门风险及美伊局势升级影响，金价早盘延续强势，期货金价盘中一度突破5600美 元，盘中受芝商所出手控温影响，金价高位跳水，一度跌至5126美元后，尾盘有所回升，单日波动超 500美元，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨1.32%报5410.80美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨5.45%， 黄金股ETF(159562)涨1.64%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨1.44%。 ...

国际金价连续两年上涨之后，近期再度强势攀升。 1月29日，现货黄金价格首次突破5500美元/盎司，短短四天内接连突破六道整百关口，刷新历史纪录。然而，面对屡创新高的金价，投资者心态却出现分 化。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 5513.036 | | 昨结 | 5417.747 | | 总量 | | | 0 | | +95.289 | +1.76% 开盘 | | 5416.334 | | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 5598.750 | 持 仓 | | 0 | 外 盘 | | | 0 | | 最低价 | 5416.260 | 墙 仓 | 0 | | 内 | 물 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | 目K | 園K | | 月K | | 更多 (0) | | | | | 叠加 设均线 MA5:4786.980↑ 10:4552.370↑ 20:4269.153↑ | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent surge in gold prices, breaking the $5500 per ounce mark, reflects heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly signals from U.S. President Trump regarding potential military action against Iran, which has ignited safe-haven demand for gold [2][4]. - The article highlights that this rapid increase in gold prices is the fastest recorded in history, with a rise of $500 in just four days, representing an increase of over 10% [2][4]. Group 2 - Hedge fund managers view the rising gold prices as an opportunity, understanding that the logic behind such increases is straightforward: the more global instability, the more valuable gold becomes. Historical data shows that gold has averaged an 18% increase during periods of geopolitical conflict over the past decade [4]. - In contrast, a jewelry store owner perceives the price surge as a source of stress, as higher costs for purchasing gold lead to customer hesitance and fluctuating inventory values. The owner expresses relief when prices stabilize, allowing for better inventory management [9][10]. - A retired teacher, representing ordinary consumers, expresses anxiety about whether to invest in gold, driven by concerns over inflation and the value of money. She ultimately decides to wait for a price correction before making a purchase, viewing gold as a source of security rather than an investment strategy [12][14]. Group 3 - The article concludes that the $5500 gold price milestone is a reflection of global risk aversion, emphasizing that individual decisions to buy gold should be based on personal objectives rather than market prices, as different stakeholders perceive the same price movement in vastly different ways [16].