贵金属市场全线跳水。 北京时间10月21日午后，国际金价盘中突然跳水，现货黄金、期货黄金盘中均跌超2%。截至发稿，伦敦金现跌1.98%，报4269.526美元/盎司；COMEX黄金 跌1.61%，报4289.2美元/盎司。 据CNBC报道，KCM交易公司首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："获利了结操作与避险资金流减弱共同作用，导致今日金价小幅承压。但只要美联储维持当 前的降息路径，黄金价格的任何回调都将被视为买入机会。"他认为，只要本周晚些时候公布的美国消费者物价指数（CPI）数据未出现意外上涨，当前的黄 金涨势就仍有上行空间。 对于黄金后市，东吴证券研报认为，本周市场避险交易推动黄金价格一度上破4300美元/盎司，创历史新高。市场担忧主要聚焦在：①美元流动性风险：逆 回购的几近耗尽与TGA的持续补充令狭义的货币市场和广义的资本市场面临更大的流动性风险。虽然TGA的提升已接近尾声，但缩表持续、逆回购耗尽的 意味着美联储净流动性面临更大挑战，这或倒逼美联储更快结束缩表，同时强化10、12月各25个基点的降息概率；②汽车信贷风险：高利率的持续、车价飙 升导致车贷月供压力激增，进而冲击车贷行业。不过，当前美 ...

事实上，不仅黄金白银，整个贵金属市场全线下跌，截至发稿，现货铂金跌近3%，NYMEX铂跌近 4%，此前均一度跌超5%；现货钯金跌3.86%，盘中一度跌超5%，NYMEX钯跌4.7%，盘中一度跌超 6%。 昨日，因市场预期美联储将进一步降息，且避险需求强劲，黄金价格创下新高。市场分析认为，今日的 回调主要由于投资者获利了结。 据CNBC报道，KCM交易公司首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："获利了结操作与避险资金流减弱共同 作用，导致今日金价小幅承压。但只要美联储维持当前的降息路径，黄金价格的任何回调都将被视为买 入机会。"他认为，只要本周晚些时候公布的美国消费者物价指数（CPI）数据未出现意外上涨，当前的 黄金涨势就仍有上行空间。 （原标题：金价突发跳水！这一市场全线重挫 发生了什么？） 贵金属市场全线跳水。 北京时间10月21日午后，国际金价盘中突然跳水，现货黄金、期货黄金盘中均跌超2%。截至发稿，伦 敦金现跌1.98%，报4269.526美元/盎司；COMEX黄金跌1.61%，报4289.2美元/盎司。 白银期现的跳水则更为猛烈，均一度跌超6%。截至发稿，伦敦银现跌4.38%，报50.094美元/ ...

白银期现的跳水则更为猛烈，均一度跌超6%。截至发稿，伦敦银现跌4.38%，报50.094美元/盎司； COMEX白银跌4.77%，报48.935美元/盎司。 | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 1585.70 | -47.51 | -2.91% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货把金(美元/盎司) | 1439.24 | -57.76 | -3.86% | | NYMEX铂 | 1587.3 d | -64.9 | -3.93% | | NYMEX铝 | 1465.00 d | -72.30 | -4.70% | 贵金属市场全线跳水。 北京时间10月21日午后，国际金价盘中突然跳水，现货黄金、期货黄金盘中均跌超2%。截至发稿，伦敦 金现跌1.98%，报4269.526美元/盎司；COMEX黄金跌1.61%，报4289.2美元/盎司。 他在近日接受内部访谈时指出，黄金市场的关键问题是西方个人高净值投资者大幅增持黄金是否具有可持 续性。如果西方投资者像9月那样继续大量配置黄金，那么这轮上涨或许还有空间。虽然难言绝对，但上 述情况确有可能发生。市场上存在着各种可能提高市场尾部风险（例如美国 ...

昨日黄金价格的大幅上涨并突破历史新高，是多重利好因素共振的结果： 避险需求持续升温：美国区域银行业风险再度浮现，Zions Bancorp（锡安银行）与Western Alliance Bancorp（西联银行）相继披露遭遇贷款欺诈，引发市场 对信贷体系稳定性的担忧，促使避险资金加速流入黄金。 美联储降息预期强化：市场对美联储后续进入降息周期的预期不断增强，实际利率下行预期与避险需求形成共振，成为推动金价上涨的核心动力。 从技术面来看，黄金整体上行格局保持完好，以下是针对当前市场状况的操作建议： 地缘政治与贸易不确定性：全球贸易摩擦仍在延续，中东地区冲突再起，以及美国政府停摆状态持续，这些不确定性共同支撑了黄金的避险吸引力。 资金持续涌入：全球央行连续购金（中国央行已连续11个月增持黄金），以及黄金ETF资金流入强劲，为金价提供了稳固的配置需求支撑。 技术分析与操作建议 关键支撑与阻力位： 下方支撑：4300美元是关键支撑位，其次为4295-4300区域。若回落至4310-4315区间可考虑分批布局多单。 上方阻力：昨日高点4381-4385区域是近期阻力，一旦有效突破，下一目标将看向4410-4420技术强 ...

Market Overview - During the National Day holiday, the sentiment in the precious metals market continued to rise, driven by concerns over US-China trade disputes and risks in US regional banks, which boosted safe-haven demand [1][2] - In the week from October 13 to October 17, international gold prices surged, approaching $4400, while the RMB gold price reached a historical high of 1000 yuan per gram, marking a weekly increase of over 5%, the strongest performance since May [1][2] US Government Shutdown - The US government shutdown has reached its third-longest duration in history, with no signs of reconciliation between the two parties, indicating limited willingness from the Trump administration to reach a short-term agreement with the Democrats [1][2] Regional Bank Issues - Recent loan fraud incidents at US regional banks have raised concerns reminiscent of the systemic risks posed by the 2023 SVB crisis, although the affected banks are smaller and the current situation appears to be more of an isolated credit loss rather than a systemic issue [2][3] - The liquidity position of the involved regional banks is healthier compared to SVB during its crisis, suggesting that the current events may not lead to sustained financial turmoil, but the impact of the government shutdown on liquidity needs further observation [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that some liquidity indicators are tightening, and the Fed may halt balance sheet reduction in the coming months, providing marginal support to market liquidity [2][3] Investment Opportunities - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds track the performance of gold prices in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, offering investors a new avenue for gold investment with a minimum purchase starting at 1 yuan [3]

Core Insights - The Swiss Franc is approaching a ten-year high against the Euro due to increased demand for safe-haven assets driven by new tariffs and political concerns [1] - The Euro to Swiss Franc exchange rate reached 0.92146, only about 0.2% away from its level in January 2015 [1] - In the past month, the Swiss Franc is the only currency among the G10 that has appreciated against the US Dollar, influenced by trade protectionism fears and political instability in France and Japan [1] Trading Activity - Options trading data indicates heightened demand, with Euro to Swiss Franc trading volume reaching its highest level since August, and Dollar to Swiss Franc trading volume at a one-month high [1] - Kit Juckes from Societe Generale highlights the advantages of the Norwegian Krone, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc in the context of growth potential and safe-haven characteristics [3] Policy Considerations - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to release a summary report of its September interest rate meeting, which will be closely analyzed by investors for indications on how the SNB will respond to the strong Swiss Franc [3] - The cost of hedging has risen to its highest level since mid-August, with premiums for options to buy Swiss Francs returning to June levels, indicating traders are seeking protection and clear trading direction [3] Economic Outlook - Economists have largely abandoned the idea of returning to negative interest rates, aligning with market pricing, but the SNB has various policy options to balance imported inflation and external shocks [6] - Analysts from Danske Bank suggest that the SNB is more likely to consider intervention measures before contemplating negative rates, given the strong real trade-weighted exchange rate of the Swiss Franc and potential tariff measures on Swiss exports to the US [6] - Despite the strong Swiss Franc, it is anticipated that the Euro to Swiss Franc exchange rate will trend downward over the next year [6]

白宫官员：停摆可能在本周结束；若未结束将考虑采取更强硬措施。 哈马斯正在埃及讨论加沙停火协议下一阶段内容，涉及解除武装。 欧盟成员国支持在2028年1月前逐步停止进口俄罗斯天然气。 苹果股价创新高，市值接近4万亿美元。 10月21日资讯分享 周一，受美联储将进一步降息的预期和持续的避险需求提振，现货黄金突破上周五的纪录高位，触及 4381.4美元/盎司，最终收涨2.46%，报4355.67美元/盎司； 因投资者担忧全球供应过剩的可能性，油价周一收于5月初以来的最低水平。WTI原油最终收跌0.56%， 报56.92美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌0.62%，报60.95美元/桶。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, central bank purchases, and increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [1][3][17] Group 1: Market Movements - Gold prices in Shanghai surged by 1.92% to over 990 CNY per gram, while silver rose to 11,800 CNY per kilogram; New York gold reached 4,393 USD per ounce [1] - The fluctuations in October were notable, with gold first breaking the 4,000 USD mark, then dropping to 3,991 USD, and later peaking at 4,300 USD [3][5] - The divergence between international and domestic gold prices is attributed to short-term selling in international markets and long-term buying trends in domestic markets [11] Group 2: Driving Factors - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has lowered the cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors [5][6] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China having added gold for 11 consecutive months and a projected total of 850 tons to be purchased this year [7][8] - Increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is evident due to uncertainties such as the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing geopolitical risks [9][10] Group 3: Implications for Consumers - Consumers purchasing gold jewelry or bars should be cautious, as prices have risen, and selling may incur fees [13] - Investors in gold stocks and ETFs have seen significant gains, with an 8.95% increase in gold stock ETFs since October [13] Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about future gold prices, with Goldman Sachs raising its forecast to 4,900 USD for next year [15] - While the long-term outlook remains bullish due to supportive factors, short-term volatility may present risks [15][17]

市场波动如潮，黄金永远就像一艘稳健的诺亚方舟，自从黄金上一次历史新高4378美元/盎司在经历短暂回调后，现货黄金再度展现其避险魅力。截至2025 年10月20日夜间，国际金价强势突破重返4350美元/盎司关键整数关口上方，较日内低点反弹超逾100美元，日内涨幅达近约2%，盘中一度最高触及现报 4381美元/盎司。这场伦敦金急速拉升并非偶然，而是多重因素共同推动的结果。香港第一金市场部负责人陈生：PPLDYJ （微）将深入剖析黄金本轮反弹 的核心动力、技术面信号及未来走势关键监测点。 01 金价再现凌厉攻势 黄金市场本周伊始便迎来一场"V型反转"。周一亚市早盘，金价曾一度失守4230美元/盎司，但随后买盘涌入，推动价格持续攀升。至欧市时段，金价已收复 全部失地，最终在美市时段突破4350美元大关上方，上演了一场从日内下跌0.54% 到大涨约2% 的逆转行情。这一走势延续了黄金近期的强劲表现。上周伦 敦金现最高曾触及4380.79美元/盎司的历史高点，周涨幅高达5.69%。尽管上周五出现1.8% 的技术性回调，但本周一的强势反弹表明，黄金的上升动能并未 衰竭。 02 三大因素助推金价 避险需求持续升温：美国区域性 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have rebounded strongly, reaching historical highs, driven by market expectations of interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Gold Price Performance - On Monday night, international gold prices surged, with London spot gold and Comex futures reaching $4,381.484 per ounce and $4,398.0 per ounce, respectively, both marking historical highs [1] - Gold ETFs showed strong performance, with the gold ETF (518680) opening higher and peaking with a gain of over 2.5%, currently up 1.87%. Since September, it has accumulated a rise of over 26% and nearly 67% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and ETF Growth - As of October 20, gold ETFs have seen a continuous inflow of funds for 10 days, with a net inflow of 650 million yuan. Year-to-date, the fund has increased by 379 million shares and 384 million yuan, bringing the total shares to 510 million and the total scale to 4.95 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Market Influences - Recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggest an end to balance sheet reduction, alongside signs of a weakening job market, which have strengthened market expectations for an interest rate cut in October, with the probability now at 97% [1] - Ongoing Sino-U.S. trade tensions, exposure of credit risks in U.S. regional banks, and the London silver short squeeze have collectively boosted demand for safe-haven assets, providing strong support for the prices of gold and silver [1]