Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing trend of cash dividends in the Hong Kong stock market, with bank stocks leading the sector in total cash dividends [1][2][3] - Since the beginning of the year, the total cash dividends from bank stocks have reached 238.6 billion HKD, making it the highest among 30 sectors in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3][6] - China Construction Bank has the highest single cash dividend of 96.9 billion HKD, followed by other major banks like Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, each exceeding 10 billion HKD in dividends [6] Group 2 - In a low-interest-rate environment, high-dividend assets are attracting significant capital inflows, with net inflows into bank stocks from southbound funds totaling 72.9 billion HKD over the past three months, the highest among all sectors [7][8] - The AH bank stock index has shown a year-to-date increase of over 20%, outperforming the CSI All-Share Index by more than 6% [1][15] Group 3 - The average valuation of H-shares among 15 AH-listed banks is 0.54 times price-to-book (PB), which is significantly lower than the A-share average of 0.65 times PB, indicating a valuation gap [11][12] - The average dividend yield for H-shares is 4.95%, which is 92 basis points higher than the A-share yield of 4.03%, showcasing a strong high-dividend advantage [12][13] - Among the 15 AH-listed banks, 14 H-shares are cheaper in terms of valuation compared to their A-share counterparts, while only China Merchants Bank has a lower valuation in A-shares than in H-shares [12][13] Group 4 - The bank AH index, which includes 14 cheaper H-shares and China Merchants Bank A-shares, is based on a monthly selection of undervalued stocks in the AH market, incorporating a rotation strategy [14] - The bank AH total return index has increased by over 20% year-to-date, compared to a 13.78% increase in the CSI bank total return index [15]

Group 1 - TSMC's stock price has declined by 3.7% this year, while UMC's stock has increased by 11%, highlighting TSMC's underperformance compared to its competitor [1] - UMC's high dividend yield of over 6% has made it a significant holding in Taiwan's high-dividend ETFs, which have attracted approximately $10 billion in inflows this year [1] - TSMC is not included in the core holdings of the three major high-dividend ETFs in Taiwan, which prefer UMC due to its higher yield [1] Group 2 - TSMC remains fundamentally strong, reporting May revenue of NT$320.5 billion (approximately $10.7 billion), with a year-on-year growth of 39.6% [2] - Analysts expect TSMC's sales to grow by 39% in the second quarter [2]

今年的港股市场，强势地令人感到陌生。 在4月7日单日大跌17.16%之后，短短两个多月的时间，恒生科技指数就已经收复了失地。不仅如此，20%多的涨幅更是令其连同恒生国企指数一同进入了新 一轮的技术性牛市。 港股 表现亮眼的背后，南向资金成为了一个不容忽视的推手。 自2021年喊出"跨过香江，夺取定价权"以来，内资就从未停止过关于"定价权"的争夺。尤其是伴随着 美联储在2022开启新一轮的加息周期之后，外资开始逐 步撤离并转战美股让南向资金有了更加充裕的时间买入港股稀缺资产。在市场大幅调整的三年中，南向资金成为了最坚定的买入者。 2025年5月19日，平安人寿发布举牌公告，称平安资管受托该公司资金投资农业银行H股股票，5月12日达到了农业银行H股股本的10%，在年内第二次举牌农 业银行H股。算上这次，平安人寿已经在年内第6次举牌了H股的银行股。 平安人寿的举牌并非个例，截至今年5月31日，险资在年内已经累计16次举牌上市公司，尤其是以银行、公用事业、能源、物流为代表的港股红利资产，在年 内被13次举牌，成为了险资举牌的主要阵地之一。 | | | 险资年内举牌情况 | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the high dividend sector of the Hong Kong stock market is gaining attention for its defensive attributes amid ongoing inflation concerns, with the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) rising over 1% [1] - Huachuang Securities highlights that companies in the high dividend sector possess strong free cash flow generation capabilities, ensuring dividend sustainability and shareholder returns, even in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - Traditional industries such as banking, ports, and highways are emphasized for their stable earnings and dividends, making them attractive for investment in the current market conditions [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (code: 159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (code: 930914), which includes 30 highly liquid, consistently dividend-paying stocks with high dividend yields [2] - The index focuses on high dividend investment strategies and aims to reflect the overall performance of high dividend securities in the Hong Kong market [2] - Investors without stock accounts are advised to consider related funds such as the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF Initiated Link A (022274) and Link C (022275) [2]

老铁们，这里是帮主郑重的盘前策略时间。接下来咱们来聊聊6月20日A股的走势，结合技术面、政策面、消息面和资金流向，看看市场到底在闹什么幺蛾 子。 先看技术面，昨天A股三大指数低开低走，沪指直接失守3370点，跌到3362点，深成指和创业板指更是跌超1%。这波调整力度不小，成交量倒是放大到1.28 万亿，不过主力资金净流出224亿，明显有恐慌盘在跑路。技术面上看，沪指下面的支撑位在3330点附近，也就是4月份反弹的起涨点，要是跌破这个位置， 可能会引发更多恐慌盘。创业板指则要关注2000点的支撑，这位置要是守不住，短期可能还得磨底。不过有一点得注意，平均股价的缺口已经补上了，其他 指数的缺口还在，等它们补完缺口，市场可能会有反弹机会。 综合来看，现在市场就是个大震荡的格局，中东的地缘风险、欧洲的经济疲软、美联储的政策摇摆，都是影响市场的关键因素。作为中长线投资者，咱们得 把眼光放长远，别被短期波动牵着走。策略上，我建议关注三个方向：一是政策支持的科技板块，尤其是半导体、AI算力这些，回调下来可能是布局机 会；二是能源板块，地缘风险溢价还在，油价上涨会直接利好相关企业；三是高股息的银行、电力股，防守反击，进可攻退 ...

Economic Outlook - Daxin Financial forecasts Hong Kong's economy to grow by 2.4% this year, despite ongoing uncertainties from the US-China trade war [1] - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to challenge the 25,000-point mark in the second half of the year, with a support level around 20,800 points [1] Market Conditions - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has returned to a more reasonable level, but volatility is anticipated due to unclear US-China trade prospects and the effectiveness of mainland economic stimulus measures [1] - High dividend yields, domestic consumption, and innovation and technology sectors are expected to have a positive outlook [1] Mainland China Economic Impact - Short-term growth in mainland China's exports is anticipated, as some companies shift exports to ASEAN and other regions, offsetting declines in exports to the US [1] - Mainland China's economy is projected to grow by 4.4% this year, supported by relaxed monetary policy and a commitment to more proactive fiscal policies [1] Real Estate Market - The significant drop in mortgage rates and gradual recovery in rental yields are expected to alleviate downward pressure on Hong Kong property prices [2] - However, potential oversupply in new residential properties and uncertainties from the trade war may lead to an estimated 5% decline in property prices for the entire year of 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown resilience despite challenges, with significant performance from major banks and small-cap stocks, suggesting a strategic investment approach combining stability and growth potential [3][5][7]. Group 1: Bank Stocks as a Stable Foundation - Bank stocks have proven to be the most stable asset class this year, with the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) consistently reaching new historical highs [5]. - The low interest rate environment, with one-year deposit rates entering the "0" era, has made bank stocks attractive due to their dividend yields of 4%-6%, with the Bank AH Index yielding around 6.5% [6]. - Long-term funds, such as insurance and social security, have shown significant interest in bank stocks, with insurance capital making 10 purchases of bank stocks this year and southbound funds net buying over 200 billion in bank stocks in the past year [6]. Group 2: Small-Cap Stocks as Growth Drivers - Small-cap stocks are sensitive to funding and tend to rebound quickly when market sentiment improves, making them effective growth instruments in a low-interest and liquidity-friendly environment [7]. - Government policies are favorable towards small-cap stocks, encouraging technological mergers and acquisitions and supporting innovation in small and medium enterprises [7]. Group 3: Combined Strategy of Banks and Small-Cap Stocks - The combination of bank stocks as a foundation and small-cap stocks for growth captures the benefits of both asset classes, with banks benefiting from high dividend asset revaluation and small-caps benefiting from declining interest rates and policy support [8]. - This strategy has demonstrated strong performance, significantly outperforming the market, with a combination return exceeding 49% and a maximum drawdown of only about 13% [3][8]. Group 4: Advantages of the Selected ETFs - The Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) uniquely packages high-quality bank stocks from both A and H markets, utilizing a rotation strategy to capture excess returns from valuation differences [9]. - Historical performance shows that since its inception, the Bank AH Total Return Index has increased by 89.81%, outperforming the China Securities Bank Total Return Index, which rose by 62.94% [9]. - The 1000 ETF Enhanced (159680) and the China Securities 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) have also shown strong performance, with the latter gaining approximately 22.1% this year, significantly outperforming both the CSI 300 and the CSI 2000 Index [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a downward trend on June 19, 2025, with the banking sector showing relative resilience, only declining by 0.15%, second only to the oil and petrochemical sector [1] Banking Sector Performance - Individual bank stocks showed localized activity, with notable gains from CITIC Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Jiangyin Bank, each rising over 1% [1] - The banking ETF (512800) opened lower but turned positive during the day, ultimately closing slightly down by 0.12%, continuing its strong performance throughout the year [2][3] ETF and Index Performance - The banking ETF (512800) has repeatedly set historical highs this year, with the index it tracks, the China Securities Banking Index, having increased by 11.87% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 by 12.18 and 14.2 percentage points, respectively [3][4] - The banking sector's strong performance is attributed to its status as a stable asset class, characterized by steady operations, consistent dividends, and high dividend yields, making it attractive in a volatile market [4] Fund Allocation and Future Outlook - Short-term drivers include regulatory changes encouraging public funds to increase their allocation to the banking sector, which currently has a significantly lower representation in active funds compared to its weight in the CSI 300 [5] - Analysts believe the core investment logic for the banking sector will persist, driven by its high dividend yield, potential for institutional fund inflows, and supportive policies for interest margins [5] - The current market environment is viewed as the beginning of a long-term trend, with low interest rates and the revaluation of RMB assets serving as foundational logic for this market cycle [5] Investment Opportunities - Investors looking for value in the banking sector are encouraged to consider the banking ETF (512800) and its associated funds, which provide exposure to a diversified portfolio of 42 listed banks in A-shares [6]

对话银行：高股息的中流砥柱：银行的高歌能到几时？ 20250618 摘要 银行股慢牛行情受益于多重因素：资金面方面，公募基金改革和险资增 配提供支持；基本面方面，高股息率和资产质量改善吸引投资者；超预 期因素如地方融资平台风险控制和区域银行改革带来增长潜力。 对比 A 股和 H 股五大行股息率与中国 10 年期国债利率，历史数据显示 银行股行情顶部与两者交汇相关。预计未来 10 年期国债利率可能创新 低，银行股息率或将向国债利率收敛，行情不依赖利率变化。 银行股估值提升主要归因于资产负债表韧性，包括规模稳健扩张和资产 质量压力小于预期。市场对财务数据真实性存疑，但多项指标改善显示 实际情况好于预期。 招商银行财务数据表现卓越，各项指标勾稽关系印证其资产质量和财务 稳健性。过去几年机构投资者倾向于从景气度框架选股，导致对银行板 块配置较低。 银行股行情持续性核心因素包括高股息确定性及资产负债表韧性。被动 化资金趋势也是重要原因，国家队及沪深 300ETF 扩容导致大量资金流 入银行。 Q&A 您如何判断银行股行情的持续性？有哪些因素可能推动银行股继续上涨？ 背后的资金面、基本面及潜在超预期因素共同构成了支撑其持 ...

油气和炼化及贸易板块 2024 和 2025Q1 综 述：油气板块仍将保持较高景气度，炼化 及贸易板块业绩承压期待改善 2025 年 6 月 19 日 看好/维持 石油石化 行业报告 分析师 莫文娟 电话：010-66555574 邮箱：mowj@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480524070001 投资摘要： 2024 年海外通胀有所减缓，国内经济有所修复，从而间接支撑大宗商品需求。2024 年以来，美国 CPI 同 比上涨幅度逐步下降，截至年底低于 3%。2025 年第一季度美国通胀压力继续减缓，始终维持在 3%以下， 2024 年国内制造业 PMI 为 49.78，2025 年 1 月至 4 月，国内制造业 PMI 分别为 49.1，50.2，50.5，49.0， 围绕荣枯线 50 上下波动，有助于缓解估值压力并稳定市场预期，从而间接支撑大宗商品（如原油）需求。 2024 年油价宽幅震荡，同比下降；2025 年一季度，Brent 现货均价环比上涨。2024 年 1-12 月，Brent 原油现货均价整体价格在 69.19-91.17 美元/桶宽幅震荡，全年来看油价中枢小幅下跌，月度均价为 ...