1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are driven up by the strengthened expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and the continuous gold - buying trend of global central banks [3]. - Copper prices are in a state of multi - factor intersection and remain volatile. The upside is limited by weak demand in the automotive, home appliance, and real estate sectors, while the support at 79,000 yuan/ton is solid [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short term, but there is pressure above. Breaking through the 21,000 pressure level requires the fulfillment of peak - season expectations, a significant improvement in demand, and inventory reduction [35]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the supply in an oversupply state and the demand awaiting the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" [63]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, with macro factors leading the market and little change in fundamentals [76]. - Tin prices have an upward driving force due to the tight supply, despite the demand pressure [93]. - Carbonate lithium futures are expected to enter an oscillating and consolidating stage, with attention paid to the environmental protection situation on the supply side and the continuation of downstream restocking [111]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with a relatively narrow price - fluctuation range [122]. - Polysilicon futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, supported by the improved fundamentals from industrial integration [123]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has been strengthened to 89%, which suppresses the US dollar and boosts the financial attribute of gold. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe increase the demand for hedging, and the continuous gold - buying trend of global central banks provides long - term support, jointly driving up the gold price [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, mainly shows relevant price and inventory data [4][12]. Copper - **Price**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures shows an increase, with the daily increase of the main contract being 0.47%. The price of LME copper 3M also increases by 0.68%. The support at 79,000 yuan/ton is solid, but the upside is limited by weak demand [15][16]. - **Supply - demand**: The spot premium increases with the price increase, and the refined - scrap price difference is close to a reasonable level. The demand in the automotive, home appliance, and real estate sectors is weak, and the supply may shrink after September due to Fed rate cuts and maintenance [15]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and domestic policies are beneficial to the price. The start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand shows signs of recovery in the peak season, but the production and transportation control during the September parade may affect inventory reduction. The possible reduction in recycled aluminum supply supports the consumption of primary aluminum [35]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is expected to be in a state of oversupply in the second half of the year, which suppresses the price. The environmental protection limit order for some alumina plants in Henan has only a short - term impact on production [36]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax - return policies for some recycled aluminum enterprises may lead to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of waste - using enterprises, providing support for the price of aluminum alloy [37]. Zinc - **Supply**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc - ore price has an advantage, and the overseas zinc - ore supply is relatively loose. The increase in domestic processing fees in September may not be large, and the overseas refined - zinc increment is small [63]. - **Demand**: The demand is not significantly affected by the parade and remains stable. It is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October", and there is a strong positive correlation with black varieties [63]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc prices is more obvious [63]. Nickel - **Market Trend**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets oscillated last week, with macro factors leading the market and little change in fundamentals. The support of nickel ore continues, and the upward space of nickel iron needs attention. The new - energy sector was relatively strong last week [76]. Tin - **Supply - demand**: Tin prices are rising due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to stop production for maintenance for 45 days starting from August 30. In August 2025, the output of refined tin decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly due to enterprise maintenance and the decrease in tin - concentrate imports in July [93]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the futures market declined last week, and the spot - market trading volume decreased. The production - scheduling data of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises increased by 5% month - on - month this month, providing support for the peak - season expectation. The futures market is expected to enter an oscillating and consolidating stage [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The downward space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with a relatively narrow price - fluctuation range [122]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, supported by the improved fundamentals from industrial integration [123].

黄金延续上涨势头，周一回升至历史高点附近。 美联储降息预期令美元持续走低，利好这种无收益商品。 地缘政治紧张局势升级也为避险货币黄金/美元（XAU/USD）提供支撑。 周一欧洲时段上半段，黄金（XAU/USD）维持强劲买盘基调，并在一系列支撑因素的共同作用下，仍远接近历史高点。尽管通胀迹象持续存在，但交易员 似乎确信美联储（Fed）本月将降息。此外，对美联储独立性的担忧日益加剧，进一步加剧了围绕美元（USD）的看跌情绪，利好这种无收益黄金。 此外，俄罗斯袭击乌克兰以及以色列与哈马斯冲突升级带来的新地缘政治风险，也为避险货币黄金提供支撑。然而，短期图表上略微超买的状况可能会抑制 黄金/美元多头进行新的押注，并在本周重要的美国宏观数据公布前限制其进一步上涨的空间。尽管如此，基本面背景表明，任何回调都可能被视为买入机 会，且涨幅仍然有限。 每日摘要市场动态：黄金受益于美联储降息预期、美元走弱和地缘政治风险 美国经济分析局周五公布，7月份个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数年率稳定在2.6%。此外，核心PCE价格指数（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）在报告月份 小幅上涨至2.9%，高于6月份的2.8%，与分析师的预期相符。 ...

Core Insights - The international gold market has reached a historic high, with COMEX gold futures exceeding $3550 per ounce, reflecting a new balance of investor confidence and concerns about the future economy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin to lower interest rates in the fall, which would decrease the yield on dollar-denominated assets and drive funds into gold [2] Group 2: Dollar Weakness and Trade Policy Changes - A recent court ruling deemed certain tariff measures illegal, putting pressure on the dollar index. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for global buyers, increasing demand [3] Group 3: Geopolitical and Global Uncertainty - Political maneuvering ahead of the U.S. elections, global trade tensions, energy security issues, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have highlighted gold's value as a safe haven [4] Group 4: Central Bank and Institutional Buying - Central banks from China, India, and the Middle East are continuously increasing their gold reserves, while global gold ETFs are experiencing net inflows, providing a solid foundation for gold price increases [5] Group 5: New Technical Landscape - The $3000 level has been a strong support, while $3500 has acted as a strong resistance. If gold stabilizes above $3550, it may enter a new upward channel, with predictions of reaching the $3600–$3800 range in the short term [6] Group 6: Shift in Investor Sentiment - The new high in gold prices signifies a shift in investment logic, with more institutional investors viewing gold as a core asset rather than a peripheral one, leading to structural changes in demand [7] Group 7: Long-term Trends and Predictions - Several international investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts, with Citi predicting a range of $3500–$3600 in the next three months, and more aggressive views suggesting prices could reach $4000–$6000 in the coming years [8]

Core Insights - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has significant implications for urban areas in China, highlighting vulnerabilities in densely populated cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [1][4][6] - The conflict has led to increased commodity prices and inflationary pressures on China's economy, affecting foreign trade and supply chains [6][14] - The rural areas in China, while perceived as safe havens during crises, face challenges in accommodating large influxes of urban residents due to limited resources and infrastructure [8][9] Economic Impact - The war has caused substantial economic losses in Ukraine, with millions displaced and significant damage to infrastructure [3] - China's reliance on external resources for food and energy makes it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, as evidenced by the global energy price surge following the conflict [4][6] - Reports indicate that the conflict has exacerbated input inflation in China, affecting the overall economic stability [6][14] Urban Vulnerabilities - High-density urban areas are at risk of severe disruptions in the event of attacks, leading to potential power outages and food shortages [4][6] - The experience of Ukrainian cities under siege serves as a warning for Chinese urban centers, which could face similar challenges if geopolitical tensions escalate [4][6] Rural Preparedness - The influx of urban residents to rural areas during crises could lead to resource shortages and social tensions, as rural infrastructure may not be equipped to handle large populations [8][9] - Recent government initiatives aimed at rural revitalization and modernization are crucial for enhancing the resilience of rural areas to support urban populations in times of crisis [11][13] Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government has implemented policies to improve agricultural productivity and rural infrastructure, aiming for a more balanced urban-rural development [11][13] - Long-term strategies focus on ensuring food security and energy stability, which are essential for mitigating the impacts of potential urban crises [14]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月01日 (原油) 上周国际油价震荡，布伦特11合约涨0.3%。俄乌、伊核谈判仍处僵局，但在近期地缘风险溢价小 幅向上修复后暂无迹象表明供应受到明显阻碍。旺季过后石油市场供应过剩压力将进一步凸显,关 注9月7日0PEC+议产会议对剩余165万桶/天自愿减产恢复的讨论，若无进一步地缘犹动原油市场下 行压力增加。 【贵金属】 周五美国公布核心PCE温和上涨符合预期，进一步稳定了9月美联储降息预期，叠加特朗普解雇库克 事件成肠美联储独立性,责金属偏强运行。国际金价通近历史高点,一旦突破则上涨可能具备一定 持续性,本周关键的美国非农数据或将决定多空走向。此外美联邦巡回上诉法院裁定特朗普关税措 施非法，关注最高法院裁决。 (铜) 上周五伦铜走出9900美元8月最高收盘价，主要受金银涨势提振，市场等待9月中旬联储兑现降息， 且部分机构关注美国失业数据的调整。国内铜市关注废铜因整顿补贴、落实反向开票成本上调后, 市场报价的调整。铜市基本面编中性,但联储降息引起的资金共振可能带动铜价短线突破上冲，少 量多单短线参与。 (铝) 周五夜盘沪铝窄幅波 ...

9月1日周一，贵金属市场表现亮眼，白银触及2011年以来最高水平，金价连续第五日上涨至每盎司3478美元附近。投资者预期美联储即将降息， 推动资金流向避险资产。 MSCI亚太指数下滑0.1%，日经225指数受芯片股拖累下跌2%，三星电子和SK海力士等芯片制造商大幅下跌。美国股指期货小幅走低，欧洲股指 期货则微涨。因劳工节假期，美国市场周一休市。上周五，一家美国联邦上诉法院裁定，总统特朗普征收的大范围贸易关税为非法，为市场增添 了新的变数。 贵金属价格创多年新高 白银价格周一升破每盎司40美元，创2011年以来最高水平，年内涨幅超过40%。白银受益于其工业属性，根据白银协会（Silver Institute）的判 断，在太阳能电池板等清洁能源技术的推动下，白银市场正迈向连续第五年的供应短缺。 日经225指数跌幅扩大至2%。 欧洲斯托克50指数期货涨0.1% 美元现货指数变化不大，欧元上涨 0.2% 至 1.1709 美元。 台湾证交所加权股价指数收跌0.7%，报24,071.73点。 日本10年期国债收益率上涨两个基点至1.620%。 印度10年期国债收益率上升5个基点至6.62%。 西德克萨斯中质原油下跌 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices oscillated last week. WTI crude futures closed at $64.01 per barrel, up 0.38% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $67.46 per barrel, up 0.30% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 483.9 yuan per barrel, down 1.97% for the week [5]. - Geopolitical tensions initially supported oil prices, but mid - week, less - than - expected inventory drawdowns in the US, Russia's plan to increase exports after refinery attacks, and India's consideration of importing Russian oil led to a decline in oil prices [5]. - Due to increased supply from OPEC+ and lackluster global demand, there is a greater prospect of market surplus in 2025 and 2026, which may push down prices [6]. - Geopolitical risk premiums are expected to support oil prices as the possibility of a quick cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is low [6]. - Indian refineries are expected to increase Russian oil imports by 10% - 20% in September, or 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day [5][7]. - The attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, causing a local supply crisis, but also potentially increasing Russian crude oil exports [6]. - Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound at low levels. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 475 - 505, and long - term long positions can be held [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - WTI crude futures closed at $64.01 per barrel, up 0.38% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $67.46 per barrel, up 0.30% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 483.9 yuan per barrel, down 1.97% for the week [5]. - Geopolitical talks between the US, Ukraine, Russia, and the EU were deadlocked, and Russia's repeated attacks on Kiev supported oil prices in the early part of the week. Mid - week, less - than - expected inventory drawdowns in the US, Russia's plan to increase exports after refinery attacks, and India's consideration of importing Russian oil led to a decline in oil prices [5]. - As of the week of August 26, the speculative net - long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 23,848 contracts to 206,543 contracts; the net - long positions in WTI crude oil futures held by speculators decreased by 10,737 contracts to 109,472 contracts [5]. - A US judge panel upheld a previous ruling that Trump wrongly invoked an emergency law to impose tariffs, and the US government has time to appeal to the Supreme Court [5]. - Indian refineries are expected to increase Russian oil imports by 10% - 20% in September, or 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day [5][7]. - Ukraine's attack on 10 Russian refineries has disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, causing a local supply crisis, but also potentially increasing Russian crude oil exports [6]. 3.2 Related Information - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and it may continue to increase production, which could lead to a large supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 and push down prices [6]. - Most respondents believe that Trump's threat to Russian crude oil buyers has limited impact on the oil market as OPEC+ and other suppliers can fill the supply gap [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound at low levels. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 475 - 505, and long - term long positions can be held [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Weekly Prices**: The current prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Chinese Shengli crude oil, Dubai crude oil, and OPEC's basket of crude oil prices are $67.62, $64.16, $70.09, $65.60, $70.16, and $70.10 respectively, with changes of - 0.29, 1.03, 1.16, 1.04, 1.19, and 0.91 and percentage changes of - 0.43%, 1.63%, 1.68%, 1.62%, 1.73%, and 1.31% respectively [10]. - **Cushing Inventory**: As of August 22, the Cushing inventory was 22.632 million barrels, a decrease of 838,000 barrels [11]. - **EIA Inventory**: As of August 22, the EIA inventory was 418.292 million barrels, a decrease of 2.392 million barrels [12]. 3.5 Position Data - **CFTC Fund Net - Long Positions**: As of August 26, the net - long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 109,472 contracts, a decrease of 10,737 contracts [18]. - **ICE Fund Net - Long Positions**: As of August 26, the net - long positions in Brent crude oil futures were 206,543 contracts, an increase of 23,848 contracts [19].

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Period: September 1 - 5, 2025 [1] - Report Subjects: Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, gold prices fluctuated upward due to the Fed's dovish signals, a weaker US dollar, geopolitical risks, and a weakening labor market [7] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, Fed officials' speeches, geopolitical situations, and global central bank policies [7] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 800 range [11] - This Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 794 - 803 and support at 766 - 775 [12] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [19][28] - Data Presented: Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price spreads [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, silver prices showed a pattern of "fluctuating and stabilizing, rebounding at the end of the month" due to the Fed's expected rate cut, a weaker US dollar, lower US bond yields, and industrial demand expectations [32] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and Fed officials' speeches. Whether the rate - cut expectation can be further strengthened will dominate short - term trends [32] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [33] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with support at 8500 - 8800 and resistance at 9200 - 9500 [36] - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support at 8900 - 9000 and resistance at 9400 - 9500 [37] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [42][45] - Data Presented: Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price spreads [44][47][49]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices continue to rise, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $67.48 and $64.01 per barrel respectively as of August 29, 2025 [1][2]. Oil Price Review - As of August 29, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $67.48 per barrel, up $0.26 per barrel (+0.39%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $64.01 per barrel, up $0.35 per barrel (+0.55%); Russian Urals crude spot price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while Russian ESPO crude spot price increased by $0.23 per barrel (+0.36%) [2]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of August 25, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs increased by 3 to a total of 373, with additions in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the number of global floating drilling rigs decreased by 2 to 131, with reductions in Africa and Southeast Asia [2]. U.S. Crude Supply - As of August 22, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.439 million barrels per day, an increase of 57,000 barrels per day from the previous week; the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 412, up by 1 rig [3]. U.S. Crude Demand - As of August 22, 2025, U.S. refinery crude processing volume was 16.880 million barrels per day, down by 328,000 barrels per day from the previous week; the refinery utilization rate was 94.60%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points [3]. U.S. Crude Inventory - As of August 22, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 822 million barrels, a decrease of 1.616 million barrels (-0.20%); strategic crude oil inventory increased by 776,000 barrels (+0.19%) to 404 million barrels; commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.392 million barrels (-0.57%) to 418 million barrels [3]. U.S. Refined Product Inventory - As of August 22, 2025, U.S. gasoline inventory was 222.334 million barrels, down by 1.236 million barrels (-0.55%); diesel inventory was 114.242 million barrels, down by 1.786 million barrels (-1.54%); jet fuel inventory was 43.589 million barrels, up by 293,000 barrels (+0.68%) [4].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached historical highs, driven by multiple factors including inflation data and market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][6]. Price Movements - On August 29, gold futures in the U.S. peaked at $3,518.5 per ounce, while London gold reached $3,454 per ounce [2]. - Domestic gold prices also surged, with investment gold bars in China priced at 820 yuan per gram [2]. - For the week, gold prices increased approximately 2.86%, and in August, the total increase was 5.002%, marking the best monthly performance since April [4]. Influencing Factors - The recent inflation data showed a 2.9% year-on-year increase in the U.S. core personal consumption expenditure price index, which heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][6]. - The market's confidence in the independence of the Federal Reserve has been shaken due to political challenges, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. Future Expectations - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates once or twice this year, which would support commodity prices, including gold [8]. - Swiss Bank has raised its gold price target for the first half of 2026 to $3,700 per ounce, while analysts at Bank of America expect prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by the same period [8]. Market Sentiment - Current market sentiment suggests that the upward trend in gold prices may continue for several weeks, contingent on the Federal Reserve's actions regarding interest rates [9]. - However, there are concerns that the market has already priced in the potential impact of rate cuts, which could weaken the driving force behind gold's price increase [9]. Risks and Opportunities - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to the Ukraine crisis, are seen as significant factors that could lead to a decline in gold prices if tensions ease [9]. - The current high price of gold may lead to investor anxiety, prompting some to sell off their holdings, which could exert downward pressure on prices [10]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a rational approach, considering market dynamics and potential risks before making investment decisions [11]. - It is suggested to wait for lower entry points if geopolitical risks diminish, while maintaining a strategy to buy during price corrections within a defined trading range [11].