Report Information - Report Date: October 20, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [1] - Tel: 021 - 53686158 [1] - E - mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com [1] - SAC Number: S0870523100004 [1] - Report Title: Sino - US Economic and Trade Relations Ease, Important Meetings Provide Support — Fixed Income & Macroeconomic Weekly Report (20251013 - 20251019) [3] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - US stock market: The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.14%, 1.70%, and 1.56% respectively, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index decreased by 7.27% from October 13 - 19, 2025 [3]. - Hong Kong stock market: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 3.97% from October 13 - 19, 2025 [3]. - A - share market: The wind All - A Index decreased by 3.45%. Among different indices, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind Micro - cap stocks changed by - 2.44%, - 2.22%, - 5.17%, - 4.62%, - 4.15%, and - 1.61% respectively. From a sector style perspective, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets declined, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index decreased by 4.91%. Among 30 CITIC industries, 4 rose and 26 fell, with banks and coal leading the gainers with over 4.0% increase. Gold, bank, and coal ETFs also performed well with weekly gains over 4% [4]. Bond Market - Chinese bond market: The 10 - year Treasury futures contract increased by 0.29% compared to October 10, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond increased by 0.40 BP to 1.8246% compared to October 11, 2025. Yields of different - term bonds had mixed changes. The bond market leverage level increased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repo volume rising from 5.61 trillion yuan on October 11 to 8.04 trillion yuan on October 17, 2025 [5][6][7]. - US bond market: US Treasury yields decreased. As of October 17, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 3 BP to 4.02% compared to October 10, 2025. Yields of all terms decreased, and the yield curve shifted downward [8]. Currency and Commodity Market - Currency market: The US dollar index decreased by 0.27%. The US dollar depreciated against the euro, pound, and yen, with changes of - 0.29%, - 0.55%, and - 0.39% respectively. The US dollar had mixed performance against the offshore and onshore RMB, with the exchange rate against the offshore RMB decreasing by 0.29% to 7.1269 and against the onshore RMB increasing by 0.05% to 7.1265 [9]. - Commodity market: Gold prices increased. The London gold spot price rose by 6.30% to $4224.75 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 6.24% to $4234.90 per ounce. In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold spot price rose by 11.09% to 997.17 yuan per gram, and the futures price rose by 10.91% to 998.20 yuan per gram [9]. Market Outlook and Recommendations - The new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations is expected to ease Sino - US economic and trade relations and boost investors' risk appetite [10]. - With the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, investors' risk appetite is expected to recover, A - shares are expected to stabilize, and structural opportunities in sectors such as gold, rare earths, AI, computing power, energy storage, solid - state batteries, and innovative drugs are worth exploring [11]. - The short - term volatility of gold may increase, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - The bond market has investment value as the current absolute yield is at a recent high, such as the 10 - year Treasury yield above 1.80% [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices reflects deep-seated anxieties regarding the current economic order, international dynamics, and the essence of wealth [2] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Surge - The acceleration in gold prices is attributed to three short-term market variables: prolonged U.S. government shutdown, weakening confidence in sovereign currencies due to political changes in Europe and Japan, and increased investment in gold ETFs by European and American investors [3][6] - The current gold price increase is primarily driven by Western capital, with limited contributions from Asian markets [6] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Narratives - Historical analysis shows that previous significant gold price increases occurred during periods of global economic imbalance and changes in international order, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the 2008 financial crisis [11][12] - The current gold price surge is influenced by broader narratives, including the perceived decline of U.S. hegemony and the uncertainties brought about by de-globalization [12] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - As gold prices reach new highs, profit-taking by some investors is expected, leading to potential market corrections [13] - Many international institutions have raised their gold price forecasts for the coming year, with target prices concentrated in the range of $4,900 to $5,000 per ounce [13] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For ordinary investors, the approach to gold investment should align with their financial goals, whether for short-term gains or long-term asset protection [16] - Various methods for investing in gold include physical gold bars, gold accumulation accounts, gold ETFs, and gold mining stocks, with a recommended allocation of 5%-10% of total assets in gold [17][20] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The demand for hard currency, particularly gold, is expected to rise as underlying geopolitical tensions and trust issues between nations persist [15] - The investment value of gold is seen as a stable asset that does not rely on others' promises, making it a reasonable long-term investment choice [22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has led to varied consumer behaviors in the gold jewelry market, with some seeking to cash in on profits while others rush to purchase amid rising prices [1][8]. Price Trends - As of October 20, domestic gold jewelry prices have reached approximately 1200 CNY per gram, a 46.3% increase from 820 CNY per gram in January [1]. - New York gold futures have surpassed 4372.7 USD per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.58% [1]. Market Dynamics - The average daily gold recycling volume has reached around 30 grams, with consumers primarily opting for "old-for-new" exchanges rather than selling gold bars or bricks [1]. - There is a significant price disparity between wholesale and retail markets, with retail prices exceeding wholesale prices by over 20% [4]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring lightweight gold jewelry (under 5 grams) to meet decorative needs while minimizing investment costs [4]. - The trend of "one-price gold" has emerged, where certain gold products are perceived as offering better value compared to fluctuating market prices [7]. Investment and Economic Factors - Central banks globally are increasing gold reserves, with a reported net purchase of 415 tons in the first half of 2025, and 95% of surveyed central banks plan to continue increasing their gold holdings [8]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to enhance the appeal of non-yielding gold as an investment [8]. - The influx of funds into global gold ETFs, totaling 260 billion USD in the third quarter, has contributed to a "buying momentum" in the market [8].

Group 1 - The surge in gold prices has unexpectedly benefited emerging markets, boosting investor confidence in both gold-producing and purchasing countries [1] - South Africa, home to the world's deepest gold mines, is experiencing its best stock market performance in two decades, with companies like Sibanye Stillwater Ltd., AngloGold Ashanti Plc, and Gold Fields Ltd. seeing stock prices triple [1] - Ghana, Africa's largest gold producer, has had its credit rating upgraded by Moody's, reflecting the positive impact of rising gold prices on national fiscal health [1] Group 2 - The rising gold prices have created a wealth effect for both producing and purchasing countries, encouraging fund managers in emerging markets to maintain a bullish stance [4] - South Africa's strong mining sector is a key reason for the positive outlook on its bonds and stock market, with the FTSE/JSE Africa Index up over 30% in 2025 [4] - The South African rand is nearing a one-year high, and the yield on 10-year government bonds has recently fallen below 9% for the first time in over seven years, indicating improved market sentiment [4][7] Group 3 - Ghana is recovering from an economic crisis and debt default, with its currency appreciating approximately 38% this year, the highest increase globally [8] - Other countries like Poland, Turkey, and Kazakhstan are also increasing their gold reserves, but investors are advised to interpret this trend cautiously [8] - The relationship between rising gold prices and risk assets has reversed due to a weakening dollar and concerns over U.S. economic policies, making emerging markets the beneficiaries [8][9]

国内品牌金价也随之水涨船高，周大福、周生生、六福珠宝等品牌，均突破1260元/克大关。 其中，周大福表示考虑到金价持续上涨对成本的影响，集团计划在10月底提高定价黄金产品的零售价 格，大多数产品的提价幅度预计在12%-18%。 然而在金价疯涨后，上周五，贵金属市场突现"跳水"行情，呈现回调趋势。其中，金价失守4300美元/ 盎司关口，盘中一度下挫跌破4200美元/盎司，截至收盘，报4249.98美元/盎司，跌1.76%。 今日早盘(10月20日)，金价再度"跳水"， 现货黄金跌近0.4%，回落至4240美元下方。后又曾快速上行， 一度触及4274.8美元。截至今日16点30分，报4260.6美元/盎司。 河南省钱币有限公司黄金分析师陈华伟在接受大象财富记者采访时表示，近期金价的剧烈波动是多种因 素共同作用的结果。要判断未来走势，需要了解当前的核心驱动力： 第一，美联储8月降息预期增加，行情开始启动，9月美联储重启降息，当前市场预期年内将继续降息， 从而大幅提升黄金的吸引力； 大象新闻记者 王艺枫 10月以来，金价可谓持续牵动着投资者的心。现货黄金价格在站上4000美元/盎司后持续上行，特别是 过去不到一周时间 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent surges in international and domestic gold prices have led to multiple jewelry brands announcing price increases for gold products, reflecting a broader trend in the market [1][5]. Group 1: Price Increases by Companies - Lao Pu Gold announced its third price increase of the year, with retail prices expected to rise by 12% to 18% by the end of October [2]. - Chow Sang Sang has already implemented price increases for gold jewelry, with price hikes ranging from 25% to 35% since October 16 [4]. - Chow Tai Fook plans to adjust its gold jewelry prices by approximately 15% by the end of the month [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increases - The rapid increase in gold prices began in late August, with a rise of over 25% in London gold spot prices from August 21 to October 15 [5]. - Key drivers include rising global risk aversion, declining confidence in the US dollar, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7]. - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, with a reported addition of 166 tons in Q2 of this year, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Market institutions predict that gold prices may continue to rise due to factors such as further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, high US government debt, and increasing geopolitical risks [7]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for gold prices in December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing diversification in investments as a potential driver for increased ETF holdings [7]. - Despite the bullish outlook, there are concerns about potential profit-taking and the impact of alternative investments, such as cryptocurrencies, on gold's safe-haven status [7].

你敢信？花四万五买的金条，物流都显示"派送中"了，结果平台一句话："系统拦截"，直接给你取消订单，连购买记录都删得干干净净！这不是段子，是 真事！ 可第二天下午，人算不如"系统"算——订单突然变成"已取消"！他赶紧联系商家，客服说："我们没权限取消，找平台。"平台客服更绝："这是系统自动 拦截的，因为你购买量超过'正常生活需求'。" 这哪是购物？简直是被"数字强盗"耍了一道！ 最近，郑先生就碰上了这档子离谱事。10月10日，他在某电商平台一家官方旗舰店买了50克金条，单价900.3元，总共花了4万5。当时金价正涨，他脑子 一转，干脆提前按市价把这块还没到手的金条"卖"了出去，想赚个差价，操作不可谓不精。 哈？买根金条也算"过度消费"？难道老百姓不能投资黄金了？还是说，只有等它涨价了，平台才觉得你不"正常"？ 更气人的是，郑先生下单后改了个收货地址，从北京换成深圳，就这么个小操作，可能触发了所谓的"风控模型"。可货明明已经从北京发出，说明商家都 认可交易了，平台这时候跳出来"反悔"，算哪门子道理？ 他反复沟通，要求恢复订单，平台一直拖着说"有专员处理"。结果等到10月14日，钱直接退回来了，订单还在他的购物车里 ...

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices continued to decline, with major retailers like Chow Tai Fook dropping by 6 CNY per gram to 1262 CNY per gram, while Shanghai China Gold saw the largest drop of 14 CNY per gram, settling at 1155 CNY per gram, the lowest among retailers [1] - Platinum prices also experienced a significant drop, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry price decreasing by 20 CNY per gram to 646 CNY per gram [1] - The gold recovery price also fell sharply by 25 CNY per gram, with varying recovery prices across brands, such as 965 CNY per gram for general gold and 975.70 CNY per gram for Lao Feng Xiang [2] Group 2 - International spot gold reached a historical high of 4378.69 USD per ounce before dropping nearly 130 USD, closing down 1.82% at 4248.73 USD per ounce [4] - The recent drop in gold prices was attributed to easing market concerns over the Russia-Ukraine situation following news of a planned meeting between the US and Russian presidents, alongside a softening stance from Trump on tariffs, which led to a rebound in the dollar index [4] - Gold has seen a cumulative increase of over 64% this year, supported by expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which provides additional momentum for this non-yielding asset [4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that 2024 is proving to be an exceptional year for gold, with prices rising significantly, surpassing 61% year-to-date as of October 17, 2025, making it one of the largest annual increases since 2000 [2][3] - Notable financial figures, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, express uncertainty about gold's valuation, suggesting it could rise to $5,000 or even $10,000, indicating a shift in perception towards gold as a viable investment [2][3] - Ray Dalio's insights on gold's role in investment portfolios are highlighted, particularly in the context of economic uncertainty and debt crises [2][4] Group 1: Gold's Investment Value - Dalio argues that gold should be viewed as a form of currency rather than just a metal, emphasizing its historical stability and role as a hedge against debt and currency devaluation [7][10] - The article discusses the unique position of gold as a non-debt asset, contrasting it with other commodities like silver and platinum, which are more influenced by industrial demand [13][14] - Dalio suggests that a strategic allocation of 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio in gold is reasonable for most investors, optimizing risk and return [27][29] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The rise of gold ETFs has increased market liquidity and accessibility for retail and institutional investors, although they remain smaller than physical gold and central bank reserves [32] - Dalio notes that gold is increasingly replacing U.S. Treasury bonds as a "risk-free asset" in many institutional portfolios, highlighting its status as a mature form of currency [33][34] - Historical trends indicate that gold has maintained its value over time, unlike fiat currencies, which have often depreciated or disappeared [36][37]

四月底，一位投资者以每克800多元的价格购入了上千万元的积存金，仅仅一天之后，便亏损了四十七万元。 这并不是一个孤立的案例，它真切地发生在当下波动剧烈的黄金市场中。 黄金市场在2025年经历了前所未有的波动。 4月22日，国际金价强势突破3500美元/盎司，创下历史新高，然而 次日便大幅下挫，跌破3300美元/盎司。 这种"大跳水"与"大反弹"交替出现的现象，已成为当前市场的常态。 货币政策同样直接影响着黄金的吸引力。 主要经济体央行的利率决策至关重要。 当央行采取宽松货币政策，降 低利率，会引发货币贬值预期，黄金的吸引力随之上升。 低利率环境降低了持有黄金的机会成本，同时使货币 资产的吸引力下降。 对于普通投资者而言，当前市场最大的风险在于混淆了黄金饰品与投资黄金。 金店售价高达900元/克的金饰， 回收时可能仅能兑现820元/克，品牌加价幅度可达三到五成。 黄金饰品、纪念品和工艺品并非理想的投资品， 其价格包含了高额的工艺费和质量溢价，且缺乏正规、畅通的回购渠道。 投资者常陷入的另一个误区是过度配置黄金资产。 30岁以下的投资者，配置比例在10%左右可能已足够；30至40岁阶段，可适当增加至20%左右；4 ...