金瑞期货指出，从宏观和基本面来看，美联储货币政策宽松、利率回落的趋势并未发生改变，中长期包 括主权国家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，白银的供需矛盾也持续 存在，贵金属价格的长期核心驱动因素仍保持稳健。 西南期货认为，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"的大趋势，利好黄金的配置 价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。但近期贵金属大幅上涨，投机情绪显 著升温。预计市场波动将显著放大，多单可离场后暂且观望。 期货频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 当地时间1月8日，芝商所也发出通知称，将于1月9日盘后全面上调黄金、白银、铂金、钯金期货品种的 履约保证金，同时大部分天然气合约的保证金将被下调。 另外，芝商所还分别在2025年12月29日、12月31日两次上调黄金、白银等期货合约的保证金。 在芝商所上调保证金的背后，金银等贵金属当前正处于高波动状态。以金价为例，受美联储降息预期升 温、地缘政治局势错综复杂、全球去美元化趋势走强等因素影响，截至1月12日，COMEX黄金盘中突 破4600美元/盎司关口，续创历史新高。 当地时间1月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff announcement by Trump, imposing a 25% tariff on all countries engaging in commercial activities with Iran, is primarily aimed at disrupting the cooperation between Iran, China, and Russia, rather than solely targeting Iran itself [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - Trump's 25% tariff applies to all nations with commercial ties to Iran, creating a climate of fear and uncertainty without clear guidelines on enforcement [3][4]. - The tariff acts as a "collateral sanction," affecting not just Iran but also its trading partners, including China, India, Russia, Turkey, and the UAE, potentially disrupting their economic activities [4][6]. - This move is seen as a strategic attack on the trade networks led by China and Russia, aiming to force these nations to choose between engaging with Iran or accessing the U.S. market [6][8]. Group 2: Geopolitical Reactions - Iran's leadership has responded defiantly, indicating readiness to retaliate against U.S. military bases in the region if further actions are taken [10]. - China's position emphasizes the legitimacy of its trade relations and its refusal to accept unilateral sanctions, suggesting potential countermeasures if its interests are harmed [10][12]. - The EU, particularly France and Germany, is assessing the possibility of legal action against the U.S. in the WTO, although the effectiveness of such actions remains uncertain [12]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - The announcement has led to a spike in international oil prices, with predictions that prices could exceed $120 per barrel if tensions in the Persian Gulf escalate [14]. - The pressure from U.S. sanctions may accelerate the shift towards a "de-dollarization" strategy among Iran, Russia, and China, as they seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar in their trade [14][16]. - The broader implications of this tariff strategy indicate a deepening confrontation over global economic order, with currency and geopolitical dynamics at the forefront [16].

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced high volatility, with spot gold trading around $4,590 and silver retreating to below $85 on January 13, following news of Powell potentially facing criminal investigation, which drove prices to historical highs [1][2] - Spot gold briefly surpassed $4,600, closing up 1.97% at $4,597.94 per ounce, while silver reached a record high of $86 before closing up 6.51% at $85.16 per ounce [1] - Multiple exchanges globally announced enhanced risk control measures due to significant price fluctuations in precious metals, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange changing margin requirements for gold and silver contracts to a percentage of nominal value [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice regarding the adjustment of the gold ETF's subscription and redemption processes, pausing these activities for one day on January 16, 2026, to ensure smooth operations [3] - Analysts from various futures companies noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Americas, along with concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, are driving precious metal prices upward [4][5] - The market is currently characterized by high volatility, with gold maintaining a strong position while silver may face increased risks in the short term [4][5]

Group 1: Key Insights on Tin Market - Tin prices broke through 350,000 yuan per ton this week but retreated due to tightening market sentiment ahead of the U.S. non-farm employment data, leading to profit-taking by some investors [1][3] - Domestic social inventory saw a significant decrease of 12.61% week-on-week, primarily due to slow recovery in tin ore supply and uncertainties in production from major producing countries, indicating a persistent tight raw material situation [1][3] - Demand for tin is expected to remain strong, driven by high capital expenditure in AI, with a positive outlook for tin prices in the future [1][3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a buy on copper equities during dips, as the market anticipates a tightening supply-demand situation in 2026 due to expected production cuts from Freeport and Teck Resources [2] - For aluminum, the recommendation is to buy on dips, as strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks provide support despite current consumption pressures and rising social inventories [3] - Lithium prices continue to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips, as supply constraints are expected due to new government policies limiting domestic production [4] Group 3: Investment Suggestions - Companies to watch include Xingye Silver Tin, Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, New Jinlu, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Zhaojin Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [5]

转自：新华社 与此同时，由于白银市场供应持续紧张，国际银价再度反弹。分析显示，在当前动荡的市场环境下，避 险资产的需求依然强劲，市场预期黄金和白银价格将继续保持上涨势头。 新华财经纽约1月12日电（记者徐静） 受美国联邦储备委员会主席遭调查和地缘政治高度不确定影响， 美国纽约商品交易所2月黄金期货价格12日一度突破每盎司4640美元，3月白银期货价格一度冲上每盎司 86美元，均创历史新高。 编辑：吴郑思 市场分析认为，受到美联储风波和地缘政治形势等因素影响，黄金这一重要避险资产的价格继续上涨。 美联储主席鲍威尔11日晚些时候在美联储网站发表公开声明说，美国司法部9日向美联储送达传票，威 胁对他2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办公楼翻新项 目。鲍威尔表示，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方面独立性的"借口"。 另有分析认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查可能导致外界担心美国货币政策受到政治压力影响，动摇市场对美联 储政策的信心。 近期，伊朗多地出现示威活动，其间发生骚乱，造成人员伤亡。美国总统特朗普11日说，美国正在考虑 应对伊朗局势的一系列措施，包括军事行动等"一些非常强 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures prices reached a new high of 20,945 yuan, while gold futures for the 2602 contract hit a new high of 1,026.28 yuan, indicating a potential strong follow-up for gold if silver continues to rise [1] - The ongoing de-dollarization process in non-US countries is driving physical gold buying demand, and the uncertain geopolitical situation is boosting market risk aversion, suggesting that the strong underlying logic for precious metals remains unchanged [1] - The futures market offers T+0 trading flexibility and the ability for two-way transactions, which can be advantageous for investors [1] Group 2 - In a simulated trading scenario, if an investor established a long position in gold futures at around 975 yuan on January 5, the price increased to approximately 1,026 yuan by January 12, representing a cumulative increase of about 51 points [2] - Investors maintaining a bullish outlook may choose to hold their positions, but there is a risk of significant losses if the market direction is misjudged [2] - The precious metals market is influenced by multiple factors, and there are opportunities for investors to enhance their trading skills through participation in the "Economic Grain Cup - National Futures Simulation Championship" [3]

最近，鲍威尔作为美联储主席，竟然被卷入了一场刑事调查，其中涉及的金额高达25亿美元，牵动着整个华盛顿的神经。这起事件不仅反映了两位关键人物 之间复杂的关系，还揭示了美联储独立性与白宫意志之间日益紧张的博弈。 自鲍威尔于2018年上任以来，他便没能得到特朗普政府的宽待。特朗普在多个场合公开指责鲍威尔的行动迟缓，要求其加快降息步伐，以促进经济增长，对 即将到来的选举加以利好。在这种背景下，鲍威尔的独立性变得岌岌可危，尽管他的主要职责是保障美国经济的稳定，而非迎合短期的政治需求。 梳理一下事件的脉络，就能看出特朗普对鲍威尔施压的策略非常明确。他没有直接解职，而是利用司法手段来达到自己的目的。这一做法打破了美国三权分 立的基本原则，将总统的行政权与司法权结合在一起，对美联储进行干扰。这种操作毫无疑问是对美联储独立性的重大冲击，也是对美国政治体系的根本挑 战。鲍威尔在声明中也提到，这场调查实际上是对其坚持独立货币政策的惩罚，反映了他与白宫之间的深层矛盾。 美联储的独立性并非只是关乎美国国内的货币政策，它对全球市场的影响也不容小觑。当特朗普试图通过刑事调查来逼迫鲍威尔妥协、调整利率时，国际投 资者们的神经同样高度紧绷。他 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's latest tariff policy aims to reshape international relations through economic means, specifically targeting Iran's economy with secondary sanctions that impose a 25% tariff on any country engaging in trade with Iran [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact on Iran - The policy is designed to sever Iran's external economic ties, as Iran's economy heavily relies on energy exports and has trade partners across Eurasia [3]. - The increased costs for countries trading with the U.S. will significantly impact their competitiveness, potentially leading to order losses [3]. - Iran's oil revenue is likely to decline as trade partners withdraw, which will reduce foreign exchange sources and exacerbate risks of shortages in essential goods and industrial materials [5]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Disruption - Multinational companies with business in both the U.S. and Iran will need to reassess risks and adjust trade routes, potentially causing a chain reaction in global supply chains [5]. - The economic blockade may lead to increased inflation pressures within Iran, directly affecting the living conditions of its citizens [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Repercussions - Many countries may challenge the legality of the U.S. policy within the World Trade Organization, as major trading partners in Europe and Asia will not overlook their own interests being harmed [5]. - Iran is expected to accelerate efforts to seek alternative solutions, such as enhancing currency settlement cooperation with Russia and China, expanding barter trade, and establishing independent payment channels to bypass the dollar system [7]. - The effectiveness of the economic blockade will depend on how countries weigh the benefits of U.S. market access against their trade relations with Iran [7].

新华社纽约1月12日电（记者徐静）受美国联邦储备委员会主席遭调查和地缘政治高度不确定影响，美 国纽约商品交易所2月黄金期货价格12日一度突破每盎司4640美元，3月白银期货价格一度冲上每盎司86 美元，均创历史新高。 市场分析认为，受到美联储风波和地缘政治形势等因素影响，黄金这一重要避险资产的价格继续上涨。 美联储主席鲍威尔11日晚些时候在美联储网站发表公开声明说，美国司法部9日向美联储送达传票，威 胁对他2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办公楼翻新项 目。鲍威尔表示，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方面独立性的"借口"。 近期，伊朗多地出现示威活动，其间发生骚乱，造成人员伤亡。美国总统特朗普11日说，美国正在考虑 应对伊朗局势的一系列措施，包括军事行动等"一些非常强硬的选项"。观察人士认为，美国政府强权行 径将加速各国"去美元化"，对国际金价形成较强支撑。 与此同时，由于白银市场供应持续紧张，国际银价再度反弹。分析显示，在当前动荡的市场环境下，避 险资产的需求依然强劲，市场预期黄金和白银价格将继续保持上涨势头。（完） 另有分析认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查可能导致外 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源有色金属组 相关品种：沪金、沪银 贵金属价格继续走强，昨日主力合约沪银2604开于18800元/千克，收于20945元/千克，涨幅达14.42%； 主力合约沪金2602开于1004.48元/克，收于1026.28元/克，涨幅达2.57%。 我们多次提示了对贵金属谨慎偏多观点，宏观面看，地缘与避险仍是现阶段维持贵金属看多环境的核心 逻辑：以伊冲突风险显著升温；此外，尽管市场已开始定价对于2026年美联储降息节奏偏缓的预期，但 货币政策方向仍向宽松，对贵金属价格难以形成强利空，宏观面因素对贵金属仍偏多。 基本面来看，现货紧张局面仍未缓解，COMEX白银近月未平仓合约对应较大实物交割需求，而全球白 银显性库存中可供交割实物料仍紧张，SLV白银ETF金融化锁仓的背景未发生显著改变，而银价的上涨 或将进一步强化该逻辑，整体看挤仓逻辑仍在。 总结看，未来实际利率仍有向下空间，叠加地缘因素多变以及去美元化的逐步推进，贵金属估值虽然偏 高但仍有向上动力。 风险提示：美元价格波动 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公 ...