交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月13日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，早盘金价迅速走高； 美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.79%报97.87， 离岸人民币对美元大幅升值报7.1731；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 6.11个基点报4.359%；COMEX黄金期货涨1.88%报3406.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货785.16，现货781.7，基差-3.46，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，增加30千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注欧洲CPI终值、美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、周日第 六轮美伊核谈判举行。美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，金价早间 大幅拉升。沪金溢价维持至2.68元/克左右。地缘局势紧张，美伊谈判继续，金价震 荡偏多 白银 1、基本 ...

Group 1 - Shandong Molong (00568.HK) experienced a significant increase of 76.09% [1] - On June 13, airstrikes were conducted by the air force targeting dozens of sites in Iran related to its nuclear program and other military facilities [1] - Following this news, Brent crude oil saw an intraday increase of over 13% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the stable PPI data in the US and the high unemployment rate, leading to market speculation on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli airstrikes on Iran, have increased safe-haven demand, resulting in a rise in gold prices, reaching a new high of $3436 per ounce [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) has shown strong performance, with a recent net inflow of 70.31 million yuan and an average daily trading volume of 146 million yuan over the past month, ranking among the top two comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank's annual report indicates that gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, with central bank gold purchases exceeding 1000 tons for three consecutive years [2] - High uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment is expected to drive further demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with predictions of gold prices reaching $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [2] - The increase in the US fiscal deficit, reported at $316 billion for May, has contributed to the upward pressure on gold prices, as the weakening of the dollar's credit system becomes a market consensus [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that rising risk aversion is driving gold prices higher, with the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) seeing significant inflows and a current scale of 1.427 billion yuan, making it the top product in the Shenzhen market [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF closely tracks Shanghai gold (SHAU.SGE) and has lower management and custody fees compared to similar products, with a management fee of 0.25% and a custody fee of 0.05% [1] - Global markets are experiencing heightened risk aversion, with gold prices reaching a new high of 3,436 USD/ounce, reflecting a 1% increase [1] Group 2 - Recent volatility in gold prices is seen as a reflection of the restructuring of the global monetary system, with driving factors shifting from inflation expectations to sovereign credit risk and global system stability [2] - The U.S. trade policy and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to influence gold price fluctuations, with potential for prices to exceed 3,500 USD if risks escalate [2] - The U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including potential military actions against Iran, are contributing to the uncertainty in the market [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a new weekly high of $3,373.25 per ounce, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, leading to heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also showed a mild increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year rise of 2.8%, prompting a reassessment of monetary policy and contributing to a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3] Group 2 - Analysts warn that recent tariff policies from the Trump administration may push inflation higher in the coming months, despite the current mild inflation data [4] - The main driver of the CPI increase was housing costs, particularly rent, which rose by 0.3%, while food prices also rebounded by 0.3% [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear negotiations and military readiness in Israel, have significantly increased market risk aversion, enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4]

期货热点追踪 美国5月CPI低于预期，沪金强势走高，沪银小幅飘绿，机构分析表示，美国数据疲软叠加避险情绪升 温，预计金价将继续维持高震荡走势，而银价短期有一定获利回吐压力。 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since June, gold prices have shown a pattern of rising and then retreating, with a notable increase following President Trump's announcement to raise steel and aluminum tariffs, but subsequently declining [1] - From late April, gold prices have consistently retreated from a high of $3400 per ounce to below $3200 per ounce, while domestic gold prices fell from 800 yuan per gram to below 750 yuan per gram, indicating significant profit-taking by long positions [1][2] - The high retreat in gold prices is attributed to both substantial gains in April and a diminishing impact of U.S. tariff policies, leading to a higher market risk appetite [1] Group 2: Global Equity Market Recovery - Following the uncertainty post-Trump's inauguration, global equity markets experienced a downturn, while gold prices surged; however, since late April, gold prices have retreated as global equity markets began to recover [2] - The easing of expectations regarding U.S. tariff policies, particularly after the May 12 joint statement from the U.S., China, and Japan, contributed to the decline in gold prices back to pre-tariff levels [2] - Macro indicators show signs of economic recovery, with improvements in manufacturing PMIs in China and the Eurozone, suggesting a potential upward trend in global markets [2] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has significantly declined in June, primarily due to an increase in silver prices, indicating a decrease in market risk aversion [3] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a recovery in industrial demand, with notable increases in copper and crude oil prices as well [3] - Historically, significant increases in silver prices often occur in the latter stages of a gold price rally, typically following a crisis and coinciding with a recovery in industrial demand [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the long term, the trend for gold remains upward despite current pressures, influenced by trends of de-dollarization and weak performance of the U.S. dollar and bonds [4] - Short-term strategies should focus on market rhythm, as easing U.S. tariff impacts may lead to a continued decline in risk aversion, putting pressure on gold prices [4] - Silver, benefiting from its industrial applications, is expected to continue its upward trajectory in a recovering economy, especially as it breaks out of a year-long trading range [4]

市场反应：美元指数周三跌0.4%，周四亚市早盘跌至98.42（近一周新低）；美债收益率下跌，CMEFedWatch工具显示美联储9月降息概率升至70%。 1、美国通胀数据疲软，降息预期升温 数据表现：5月CPI环比涨0.1%（预期0.2%），同比涨2.4%；核心CPI环比涨0.1%，同比涨2.8%，均低于预期。 黄金周三（6月11日）早盘开始震荡上涨，欧盘初上涨3348/3349附近后受阻下跌，在跌至3326附近后再次转涨。美盘受到CPI数据影响，黄金急涨至3361附 近后受阻下跌，凌晨最低下跌至3319附近。在美伊核谈判局面急转直下，美国下令减少驻伊拉克使团规模消息出来后，黄金大涨，收盘前上涨至3355/3356 附近，日线收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 潜在矛盾：关税政策可能推高未来通胀（如大型家电价格涨4.3%、玩具涨1.3%），但当前服务业通胀温和暂时抑制上行压力。 再看四小时级别，黄金在周三尾盘大涨，今日早盘延续了这一涨势。不过，在尚未突破上周高点3403/3404之前，整体结构思路不变，逢高寻找做空机会， 以观察行情是否会出现调整。 在短线阻力位方面，上方可先关注3375、3380附近。其中，3375 ...

本周三（6月11日）欧市盘中，COMEX黄金价格小幅上涨，截至目前报3356.60美元/盎司，涨幅 0.35%，今日开盘于3344.30美元/盎司，最高上探3364.80美元/盎司，最低触及3335.40美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普所实施的关税暂时被联邦上诉法院允许维持生效，贸易不确定性在短期内有所缓解。 "法院的暂缓裁定提升了市场对贸易局势的短期信心，激励投资者转向风险资产，削弱了避险货币日元 的需求。" 日元在全球贸易乐观情绪主导的市场环境中，连续第二日维持疲软走势。截至亚洲交易时段，美元/日 元交投在145.00附近，接近前一交易日触及的两周低点。 随着亚洲大国和美国贸易关系取得积极进展，市场风险偏好持续改善，削弱了日元作为避险货币的吸引 力。 与此同时，亚洲大国和美国双方在伦敦达成初步贸易框架。美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克指出，该框 架是缓解全球贸易紧张的第一步。 避险情绪的缓解使美元短线获得部分买盘支撑，帮助美元/日元维持涨势。不过，日本国内经济数据改 善，以及通胀扩散迹象不断增强，令市场对日本央行年内再次加息的预期逐步升温，部分对冲了日元持 续贬值的压力。 【COMEX黄金行情解析】 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility due to trade negotiations, geopolitical situations, and macroeconomic policies, with gold and silver prices showing divergent trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are facing resistance at previous highs, while silver prices have reached a 13-year high, driven by industrial demand and geopolitical factors [1]. - The recent U.S. economic indicators, including a contraction in manufacturing and services PMI, alongside slowing non-farm employment data, have heightened concerns about inflation and recession [1][2]. - The European Central Bank's monetary easing has led to a recovery in manufacturing, boosting industrial demand for metals [1]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - The market is currently focused on three main aspects: U.S. government trade conflict stance, Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and geopolitical tensions, all of which influence gold prices [2]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Strategies - The gold-silver ratio has increased due to rising gold prices, leading to a shift in investment towards silver, which is expected to see strong upward momentum due to industrial demand [3]. - Predictions indicate that silver industrial demand could reach a historical high of 680.5 million ounces in 2024, with stable demand expected in 2025 [3]. - Analysts suggest maintaining a long-term trading strategy for precious metals, advising investors to buy on price dips and utilize derivatives for risk hedging [3][4].