金融期货早评 宏观：国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1）中国商务部连发四则公告，事关稀土、锂电池、超硬材料等出口管制。2） 美国政府关门难解：参院七次否决拨款案，特朗普威胁砍民主党项目，共和党领袖否认要 动"大招"。3）美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布 9 月 CPI 数据。4）贝森特已面完 11 名美联储主席候选人，4 个人最有希望。美联储理事巴尔强调通胀风险、称降息需谨慎， 华尔街日报：凸显美联储内部分歧。美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯：支持今年进一步降息，并 不认为经济处于衰退边缘。5）美国财长贝森特：赤字比降至 5 开头，希望几年后降至 3 开头。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天，全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次，环比增长 2.4%，同比增长 7%；假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高，水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过，国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看，后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前，供需两端政策正逐步推进， 后续或仍有增量政策出台，以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是，政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑，且政策基调仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Volatility**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish**: Palm oil, Soybean oil [1] - **Bullish**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Cotton, Red dates, Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term volatility is expected due to the intersection of long and short factors such as the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade negotiations, and dry weather in Brazilian soybean planting. The adjustment space is limited before the Sino - US negotiations start [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is expected to show short - term volatility, following the trend of soybean meal. Trade policies and high inventory lead to the intersection of long and short factors. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still takes time, and the positive impact is limited [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. The Indonesian government's bio - fuel policies are expected to increase future demand, but the absence of the Southeast Asian减产 season may limit the continuous upward space [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish, mainly following the palm oil market. The US government shutdown and other factors have led to an optimistic sentiment in the US soybean market [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is expected to run strongly. Low oil mill operating rates, market sentiment of hoarding and price - holding, and the consumption peak season, along with the hype of palm oil's bio - fuel concept, support its bullish trend [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bearish. The supply of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the demand has not improved significantly. In the domestic market, new cotton harvesting is progressing, and the demand outlook is weak [1][10][11]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. Considering the expected production and inventory, there is still pressure after the new fruits are listed. Although the concern about quality is gradually alleviated, there may be significant price fluctuations due to weather speculation [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bearish. The supply pressure is strong due to the active slaughter of large farms and increased slaughter by retail farmers. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [1][17]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 938500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40200 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 719910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25250 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 118920 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6080 tons [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 2939 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 3025.14 yuan/ton. The basis of different contracts and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Production**: As of September 26, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 2600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 250 tons [6]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 2435 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 2593.16 yuan/ton. The basis and cross - variety spreads changed [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Production**: As of September 26, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 552200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32900 tons. The Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month [8]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 9570 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 9555 yuan/ton. The cross - period and cross - variety spreads showed changes [7]. Cotton - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the supply pressure of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton harvesting is ongoing, and the demand is weak [10][11]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts showed small increases, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The cotton profit of textile enterprises decreased, and the开机 rates of spinning mills and weaving factories were relatively stable [9]. Red Dates - **Production and Inventory**: The estimated new - season production is 560000 - 620000 tons, a decrease compared with previous years. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons compared with the previous period [15]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts increased slightly, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The arrival volume in Guangdong increased [13]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the supply pressure is strong due to the large - scale enterprises'出栏 pressure and the increase in the number of slaughtered pigs. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [17]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts decreased, and the basis, cross - period spreads, and other indicators changed. The national sample enterprises'生猪存栏 and出栏 increased slightly [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October, the domestic soybean market is at the peak of new - season harvesting and listing, with abundant spot supply and significant price pressure. New - season low - and medium - protein soybean prices are gradually falling and may continue to bottom out as the listing volume increases [4]. - With the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential policies such as state reserves, the policy attribute of soybeans is strengthening, increasing the uncertainty of price trends [4]. - The sharp rise of soybean futures contracts on Thursday is unexpected given the large spot pressure, possibly related to the recent deterioration of trade situation. Further price increases will face hedging pressure, and the main contract is transitioning to 01 [4]. - The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade situation provides emotional support for domestic soybeans [4]. - In October, due to the new - season concentrated harvest and listing, the price pressure is large, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for the soybean 11 contract is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.92% and a historical percentile of 22.5% [3]. - **Risk Strategies** - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions, when there is a large demand for selling new - harvested soybeans in autumn but large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short soybean futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio at the price range of 4000 - 4050. Also, selling call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at the range of 30 - 50 can increase the selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is recommended to wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter and focus on long - term procurement management by taking long positions in A2603 and A2605 [3]. Market Quotes - **Price Changes**: From September 30, 2025, to October 9, 2025, the closing price of soybean 11 increased from 3927 to 3975, a daily increase of 48 (1.22%); the closing price of soybean 01 increased from 3904 to 3973, a daily increase of 69 (1.77%); the closing price of soybean 03 increased from 3903 to 3970, a daily increase of 67 (1.72%); the closing price of soybean 05 increased from 3936 to 4000, a daily increase of 64 (1.63%); the closing price of soybean 07 increased from 3942 to 3997, a daily increase of 55 (1.40%); the closing price of soybean 09 increased from 3944 to 4000, a daily increase of 56 (1.42%) [5]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade situation provides emotional support for domestic soybeans [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: In October, the domestic soybean market is in the new - season concentrated harvest and listing period, with large price pressure and limited rebound space [4]. - **Other Influencing Factors**: Policy factors such as state reserves and two - way auctions also affect the market, and the uncertainty of price trends increases [4][7].

【文/观察者网 王一】10月9日，中国商务部发布两项关于加强稀土相关物项出口管制的公告，引发外 媒热议。英国《金融时报》指出，中国的新限制措施类似于美国的"外国直接产品规则"（FDPR）出口 管制体系，这正是美国用来阻止第三国向中国出口半导体相关产品的规则。 美国彭博社评价说，在美中即将再次坐下来面对面谈判之际，中国展示了其贸易影响力。 英国路透社注意到，除了发布两项关于加强稀土相关物项出口管制的公告外，中国当天还另外宣布了几 项公告，不仅将几种新的稀土元素和数十件稀土加工设备列入出口管制清单，还涉及超硬材料、锂电池 和人造石墨负极材料等。英媒认为，这些措施对中国与美国贸易谈判来说很重要，将有助于增强中国的 影响力。 美国《华尔街日报》分析称，在美西方国家努力建立起稀土产业链以减少对华依赖之际，中国的最新举 措进一步扩大了对稀土供应链的控制。 根据中国商务部9日公布的新规，中方将对含有中国成分的部分境外稀土相关物项以及稀土相关技术实 施出口管制。《金融时报》称，这意味着凡是含有中国稀土成分或采用中国稀土开采、冶炼、制磁技术 生产的磁体，外国企业出口时都需获得中国批准。 商务部在公告中表示，部分境外组织和个人被 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic economic repair depends on the demand side, with potential incremental policies. Overseas, the US government shutdown increases market uncertainty, and the Fed's decision - making may be affected. The Japanese political situation also impacts the market [2]. - The RMB exchange rate needs continuous improvement in internal and external environments and policy signals for trend - like appreciation. Short - term strategies are provided for export and import enterprises [4]. - A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall after the holiday, with a likely structural market. Attention should be paid to multiple events in the future [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and it is advisable to enter long positions at low prices without chasing high [8]. - The shipping market is affected by the US policy on Chinese ships and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation. The 10 - contract may decline, and other contracts are likely to oscillate [12]. - Precious metals are expected to remain strong, but there may be price adjustments. Any adjustment is a mid - to - long - term buying opportunity [13][14][15]. - Copper prices are driven up by supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. However, high - price industrial acceptance is a risk [16][17]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise slightly after the holiday, showing an oscillatory and strong pattern, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [18]. - For lithium carbonate, focus on downstream restocking. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [20][21]. - Steel products face de - stocking pressure, and the market is expected to be under pressure. Iron ore prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disturbances. Coal and coke prices' rebound depends on the steel market. Ferroalloys have prominent supply - demand contradictions [24][27][28]. - LPG is expected to run weakly. PX - TA and MEG - bottle chips are expected to oscillate weakly. Methanol supply pressure increases. PVC is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern. Pure benzene and styrene follow the cost decline. Fuel oil is expected to open flat, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower. Asphalt may open slightly lower, with a possible last - chance rise this year [30][33][34][37][39][40][41][42][44]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate weakly. Propylene prices rise slightly [45][47][48][49]. - The pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is advisable to short at high prices. Oilseeds are affected by Sino - US negotiations. Oils may rebound after the holiday. Soybean prices are expected to decline. Cotton prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. Sugar prices may open high and go high in the short - term. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to be cautious. Apple prices may rise due to bad weather. Red dates may face downward pressure [52][54][56][59][61][63][65][66][68]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Key information includes the Fed's meeting minutes, the US government shutdown, the US budget deficit, and international political situations. Domestic economic repair focuses on the demand side, and overseas uncertainties increase [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate data is provided. The RMB exchange rate is affected by the Fed's decision, the US government shutdown, and the Japanese political situation. Short - term strategies for enterprises are given [3][4]. Stock Index - Before the holiday, A - shares were strong, and overseas stock indexes were also strong during the holiday. A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall, with attention on multiple events [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The Fed's internal differences and the US government shutdown are important information. The bond market rebounded before the holiday, and it is expected to oscillate after the holiday [8]. Container Shipping - Spot market prices are relatively stable. Global trade volume and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation are key factors. Short - term strategies for different contracts are provided [9][10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Prices rose strongly during the holiday, driven by investment demand, inflation concerns, and the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to data release and the Fed's meeting [13][14]. - **Copper**: Prices rose during the holiday due to supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. There are concerns about industrial acceptance at high prices [16][17]. - **Nickel**: Prices were strong during the holiday, affected by Indonesian policies. It is expected to rise slightly after the holiday with limited upward momentum [18]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production and downstream restocking [20]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Inventory increased significantly during the holiday. The market faces de - stocking pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increase. The price is expected to rise in the short - term due to demand recovery and supply issues [25][26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply elasticity is limited, and the price is supported by winter storage. The rebound depends on the steel market. Strategies for different contracts are provided [28][29]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction, with high supply and weak demand [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Overseas prices were weak during the holiday. Supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter, and the demand requirement is higher [30]. - **PTA - PX**: It oscillates weakly with the cost side. The polyester season is not very strong, and PTA processing fees have limited expansion [33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: There is a marginal improvement in supply and demand, but the long - term inventory increase expectation makes it difficult to break through upward [34][35][36]. - **Methanol**: Supply pressure increases, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [37]. - **PVC**: There were few changes during the holiday. The market is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern [38][39]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices follow the cost decline. The supply of pure benzene is high, and the supply of styrene will increase later. Consider widening the price spread [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to open flat, with a strong self - performance. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower, following the cost [41][42]. - **Asphalt**: Supply increases, and demand is affected by weather and funds. There may be a last - chance rise this year [43][44]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are expected to oscillate weakly, with different influencing factors for each [45][47][48]. - **Propylene**: Prices rise slightly, with changes in supply and demand [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Prices declined during the holiday, in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Short at high prices [52][53]. - **Oilseeds**: Affected by Sino - US negotiations, with different trends in the internal and external markets. Strategies for contracts are provided [54][55]. - **Oils**: May rebound after the holiday, with different supply and demand situations for different oils [56][57][58]. - **Soybeans**: Prices are expected to decline, with attention on policy and market factors [59][60]. - **Cotton**: Prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds, with a focus on multiple factors [61][62]. - **Sugar**: Prices may open high and go high in the short - term, affected by production and disasters [63][64]. - **Eggs**: Prices were weak during the holiday, and it is advisable to be cautious or short far - month contracts [65]. - **Apples**: Prices may rise due to bad weather, with different price levels for good and poor - quality products [66][67]. - **Red Dates**: May face downward pressure, with attention on weather and inventory [68].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.21%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.11%. Gold stocks showed strong performance, with Zijin Mining International rising over 2%, while tech stocks mostly opened lower, with Alibaba down 1.33% [1] - Zheshang International's report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market has shown an upward trend for five consecutive months, although the overall fundamentals remain weak. The funding environment is improving, and policies are reinforcing economic stability, leading to a strong short-term bullish sentiment [1] - The report from CMB International highlights that the Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend in September, supported by the resumption of US-China negotiations and expectations of overseas interest rate cuts. The external environment remains favorable, with market expectations for progress in bilateral relations increasing [1] Group 2 - The market is expected to enter a "quiet season" due to the impact of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, along with uncertainties surrounding the US government's short-term financing plan, which may amplify overseas disturbances [1] - There are still divergences in market expectations regarding the timing and extent of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may lead to market fluctuations in the short term [1] - The report suggests a cautious optimism for the mid-term market outlook, with a focus on sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [1]

谈及9月外汇储备规模变动的原因，中银证券（601696）全球首席经济学家管涛分析称，这主要是受主 要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数小幅震荡，非美元货币涨跌互现，全球 金融资产价格总体上涨带来的正估值效应。当月，美联储开启年内首次降息，美元指数先跌后涨，收平 于月初的97.8。截至9月底，中国外汇储备余额刷新2015年12月以来新高，表明中国防范化解各种冲击 的能力继续提升。 10月7日，国家外汇管理局发布的统计数据显示，截至2025年9月末，我国外汇储备规模为33387亿美 元，较8月末上升165亿美元，升幅为0.5%。 展望下一阶段外汇储备形势，民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，美国特朗普政府"对等关税"政策基本落 地，多数经济体税率低于4月份最初设定的水平，中美贸易谈判亦稳步推进，国际贸易环境的不确定性 有所收敛，叠加我国贸易伙伴多元化、出口商品结构优化，出口继续发挥稳定跨境资金流动的基本盘作 用。我国稳步扩大金融市场开放，拓宽跨境投融资渠道，人民币多元化资产配置功能凸显，境内证券市 场对外资吸引力有望继续增强。我国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，有利于外 汇储备规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is experiencing significant pressure regarding soybean exports, leading to a shift in its approach to trade negotiations with China, where agricultural issues are becoming a focal point [1][10][15]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The U.S. has historically engaged in a prolonged competition with China, but recent developments indicate a need for cooperation, particularly in agricultural exports [1]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent anticipates a "significant breakthrough" in the upcoming trade negotiations, highlighting a shift in the U.S. stance [10]. - The U.S. soybean market is facing severe challenges, with net sales reported at -189,000 tons for the 2024/2025 season, and China accounting for 60% of U.S. soybean exports [3][5]. Group 2: Political Implications - The Trump administration is under pressure from agricultural stakeholders, which are crucial to the Republican voter base, necessitating a high-level meeting with China to address soybean issues [6][15]. - The U.S. has implemented substantial tariffs on Chinese goods, with additional tariffs reaching 145% as of April 10, 2025, prompting retaliatory measures from China [8]. Group 3: Negotiation Strategies - For a successful negotiation, the U.S. must consider substantial tariff adjustments and establish a long-term procurement mechanism to alleviate Chinese concerns [12][14]. - Structural reforms in areas such as technology transfer and market access are essential for building trust and ensuring sustainable trade relations [14][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming negotiations are critical, with the potential for a "significant breakthrough" depending on the U.S.'s willingness to make meaningful concessions [19]. - The geopolitical context, including tensions in the Middle East, will also influence the dynamics of U.S.-China trade discussions [17].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is showing impatience in trade negotiations with China, particularly regarding soybean purchases, which have been significantly impacted by tariffs and trade policies [1][2][6] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - President Trump plans to discuss soybean issues with Chinese representatives at the upcoming APEC summit, highlighting the urgency of the situation for U.S. soybean farmers [1] - The U.S. soybean market is facing unprecedented challenges, as China has not purchased U.S. soybeans this fall for the first time since 1999, leading to a shift towards Brazilian and Argentine suppliers [1][2] Group 2: Economic Impact on Farmers - U.S. soybean farmers are experiencing severe economic pressure due to a 20% retaliatory tariff imposed by China, which has drastically reduced their competitiveness in the market [1][6] - The Trump administration is considering a subsidy plan for farmers, estimated between $10 billion to $14 billion, but this plan requires Congressional approval and may not be implemented until 2026 [2] Group 3: Political Ramifications - The impact of the trade war on soybean farmers, a key support group for Trump in the last election, is increasing pressure on the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections [6] - The U.S. government is under pressure to reassess its trade policies and engage in equal dialogue with China to resolve ongoing disputes, as continued tensions could lead to further economic uncertainty [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the European demand support may not end, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulus. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline. It's hard to say that September is the last correction window, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year. Future price movements depend on domestic macro - stories and production [3][5][7] - For soybean oil, before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. It may seek exports in the fourth quarter and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, causing the oil and fat sector to plunge on Tuesday. The palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [2] - Soybean oil: After the plunge on Tuesday, the sector rebounded slowly. The US soybean main contract fell 1.17% and the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [2] 2. This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Supply side: In September, rainfall may lead to flat or decreased production in Malaysia, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons. Indonesia's annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. Although the inventory pressure is not fully released, the current price may have factored in Indonesia's price - cut attitude [3] - Demand side: In the consumer market, the import profit of Indian soybean oil and sunflower oil is better than that of CPO, and the availability of soybean oil in India has increased. The possibility of the EUDR delay has increased, and the demand side lacks stimulus [3] - Inventory: The inventory increase in Malaysia from July to September may be extremely slow. Indonesia's inventory bottomed out in August. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline [3] Soybean oil - Policy: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. The final release of RVO may be delayed. Before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound [6] - Market: US soybean oil may seek exports in the fourth quarter, and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] 3. Basic Market Data of Futures - Palm oil main continuous contract: Opened at 9,322 yuan/ton, closed at 9,236 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [9] - Soybean oil main continuous contract: Opened at 8,320 yuan/ton, closed at 8,162 yuan/ton, down 2.09% [9] 4. Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - Production: Malaysia's palm oil production in September is expected to be flat or slightly decreased compared to the previous month [11] - Inventory: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September is expected to increase slightly. Indonesia's inventory is expected to recover to last year's level after the second quarter [11][13] - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 were 1.288462 million tons, a 12.9% increase compared to the same period last month [14] - Price difference: The price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil has weakened, and the import profit of palm oil is significantly lower than that of soybean and sunflower oil [17]