Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a "slow bull" trend with four consecutive weeks of gains, with over 3,100 stocks rising during the last week [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching its second-highest level since the "9.24" market rally last year, with approximately 140 points left to reach the next target [3] Index Performance - Various indices have made progress in recovering from previous declines, with the CSI 2000 and Northbound 50 indices having already rebounded, while others like the STAR 50 and CSI 1000 have not yet done so [4][5] - The performance of small-cap stocks, represented by the CSI 2000 index, has been strong, but recent weeks have seen the ChiNext index outperforming it [7] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include telecommunications, with a 7.56% increase, and automotive, with a 3.28% increase, while sectors like media and coal have shown declines [9] - The market is experiencing rapid rotation among leading sectors, with banks showing signs of adjustment after previously supporting the index [9] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the market is shifting towards a trend of gradual increases rather than short-term speculative trading, favoring stocks with solid industrial logic [10] - Institutional perspectives indicate a continued mild upward trend in the market, with expectations for indices to break above last year's highs [12][13] Earnings Forecasts - As of July 18, 1,542 A-share companies have disclosed their mid-year earnings forecasts, with industries like construction materials and non-bank financials showing strong growth potential [19] - Notable stocks with expected strong performance include companies like Pengding Holdings and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [19] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the release of the July LPR and the publication of important economic reports, which may influence market dynamics [21][22][23]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting is the upcoming meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on July 11, marking the first high-level direct dialogue between the U.S. and China since the Trump administration's cabinet reshuffle [1] - The main topics of discussion are expected to cover three key areas: ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, strategies regarding sanctions and technology transfer, and regional security issues including Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][5] - Rubio's significant roles within the Trump administration, including Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, position him as a key decision-maker in U.S.-China relations, making this meeting crucial for the future trajectory of bilateral relations [3] Group 2 - There are speculations that Rubio may raise concerns about China's military support for Russia during the meeting, although this is viewed as a potential negotiation tactic rather than a genuine agenda item [5] - Rubio's visit to Southeast Asia coincides with Trump's announcement of new tariffs on ASEAN countries, which has not been well received by these nations, highlighting the challenges of U.S. unilateralism in trade [7] - ASEAN countries are likely to resist U.S. pressure, drawing lessons from successful strategies employed by China and Vietnam in navigating complex international dynamics [7]

Group 1 - Recent signals from Trump suggest a potential easing of export restrictions to China, coinciding with the U.S. government's push for new global tariff policies [1] - The U.S. has reportedly relaxed restrictions on high-end chip exports to China, allowing Nvidia to export H20 chips, which may be perceived as a gesture of goodwill [3] - The exported chips are not the most advanced, indicating that the U.S. aims to maintain its technological edge in semiconductors while creating a favorable negotiation atmosphere for upcoming talks with China [3][4] Group 2 - Trump's strategy appears to be aimed at keeping China dependent on U.S. technology, thereby delaying China's progress in semiconductor self-research [4] - The U.S. is facing anxiety over its rare earth reserves, which can only sustain military needs for a few months, prompting a need for strategic negotiations with China [4] - As China imposes an antimony export ban, the U.S. is increasing imports through third-party countries like Thailand and Mexico, which are acting as intermediaries [5] Group 3 - A recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam imposes a 40% tariff on goods routed through Vietnam, which is seen as a move against China [7] - The U.S. may leverage third-party countries to undermine China's interests, indicating a potential shift in international trade dynamics [9] - China has expressed its readiness to counter any actions that harm its interests, signaling a firm stance against external pressures [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Natural Rubber, 20 - rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for price decline, but poor operability on the market [1] - Logs: Not explicitly rated in the provided content Core Views - The prices of various commodities in the soft commodities market show different trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and weather. Overall, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations for most commodities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise sharply, with the spot sales basis of domestic cotton firm. The cotton industry chain showed stronger raw materials, and the price of pure cotton yarn increased. There may be a short - squeeze situation due to the post - point - pricing behavior of downstream enterprises. The operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased, while that of Xinjiang spinning enterprises remained high. As of the end of June, the commercial cotton inventory was 282.98 million tons, a decrease of 62.89 million tons compared with the end of May. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the rainfall in the main producing areas in the second half of June was still heavy, affecting the sugarcane harvesting progress, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi increased year - on - year, the sales rate increased, and the industrial inventory decreased. The upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. New early - maturing apples were on the market, and cold - storage apple prices began to decline. The demand for apples was low due to the large number of seasonal fruits and hot weather. As of July 11, the national cold - storage apple inventory decreased year - on - year. The market's trading focus shifted to the new season. It is recommended to maintain a short - biased thinking [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber - RU&MR rose, BR fluctuated. The domestic natural rubber price increased slightly, and the synthetic rubber price generally rose. The global natural rubber supply was entering the high - yield period. In June, the synthetic rubber production increased year - on - year, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week. In June, the output of Chinese rubber tires decreased year - on - year. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded slightly, and that of semi - steel tires rebounded significantly. The inventory in Qingdao area increased. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - The pulp futures rose slightly. The spot prices remained stable. As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China decreased compared with the previous period. The pulp import in June was still high year - on - year. The supply of pulp was relatively loose, the demand was weak, and it was in the traditional off - season. The pulp valuation was low, and domestic counter - subsidies boosted sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price rebounded sharply, and the spot price remained stable. The main reason for the rebound was that the spot price was at a historical low with limited downward space. The port arrival volume and inventory were low, and the spot price was expected to rise. The demand was in the off - season, and the inventory was low. The supply was expected to be favorable, but the price lacked the power to continue rebounding. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

前言： 此前，中美在日内瓦会谈中定下了关于关税的90天期限。 现如今， "免战牌"仅剩一个多月。 时至今日，中美依旧未能在关税层面达成完全一致。 这也导致美国国内再次升腾起一阵不安。 对此美财长贝森特却表示： 不必担心，两国谈判正处于非常好的阶段，且美国有中国想要的东西。 可事 实真是如此嘛？ 贝森特的话里又藏着什么玄机？ 贝森特言外之意就是， 虽然期限将至，可不用多想。 因为中美会谈情况良好，且中国需要从美国得到某种东西。 可明眼人都明白，我国稀土管制早已压得美国喘不过气来。 至于贝森特所言， 很可能就是自我安慰。 不过随后贝森特就表示， 美国已经允许英特尔向中国出口H20芯片。 并表示，这是此前中美之间谈好的。 而芯片正是中国被美国卡脖子的项目之一。 这样说来，贝森特的话也不无道理。 只是，美国此次松口 绝对不是履行谈判承诺那么简单。 因为美国对于芯片的管制，我国加大芯片领域研究。 目前， 我国已经在芯片上取得突破。 所以贝森特口中的H20芯片对我国的意义已经不大。 换句话说，就是美国履不履行承诺，都无所谓了。 既然如此，贝森特的话又显得毫无意义。 那么他的 用意究竟是什么呢？ 他深知，中国已经取得突破， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。5月份我国棉花进口3.45万吨，同比减少86.74%；棉纱进口 10万吨，同比减少14.55%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740 万吨，期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判三个月缓和期即将结束，虽然部分谈判取得进展，最后到期 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (implies a relatively clear upward trend and an appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Paper Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (suggests a bearish bias but low operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ (indicates a short - term balanced state with low operability) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall soft commodities market shows different trends. Some commodities like cotton and sugar have supply - demand and inventory factors affecting their prices, while others such as apples are influenced by new - season production estimates and seasonal demand. The market requires close monitoring of supply - demand changes, production data, and macro - trade factors [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose significantly. The cotton industry chain has stronger raw materials and weaker downstream. The price of pure cotton yarn followed the raw materials but with weak momentum. Inner - land spinning mills' operation rate decreased, while Xinjiang's remained high. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, down 62.89 million tons from the end of May. The inventory is expected to be tight. Macroeconomic factors such as Sino - US trade details need attention. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the 25/26 season, Brazil's central - southern sugarcane yield per hectare is expected to be 72 tons, down 6.5% year - on - year. However, due to a high sugar - making ratio, the sugar production is expected to exceed 4000 million tons. In China, as of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 million tons, up 61.44 million tons year - on - year, with a sales rate of 79.51%, up 6.29 percentage points, and industrial inventory at 132.44 million tons, down 33.08 million tons. The US sugar trend is downward, so the upside of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. Expect short - term price fluctuations and stay on the sidelines [3]. Apple - Futures prices fluctuated weakly. Spot prices were stable. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and cold - storage apples' prices are weakening due to high inventory - holder selling and low demand. As of July 11, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 82.44 million tons, down 40.95% year - on - year. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western region was affected by cold snaps and winds, the impact on yield is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. With sufficient flower quantity, the production estimate is bearish. Maintain a bearish trading strategy [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU&MR rose slightly, and BR fluctuated. Domestic natural rubber prices were stable with a slight increase, and synthetic rubber prices were stable. The global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly. Some plants are restarting or reducing loads. The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires rebounded. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 63.64 million tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rose to 1.28 million tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory rose to 2.36 million tons. With increasing supply and inventory and trade risks, stay on the sidelines [6]. Paper Pulp - The pulp futures price dropped slightly. Spot prices were stable. As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 217.9 million tons, down 3.4 million tons from the previous period, a 1.5% decrease. China's pulp imports in June were 303.1 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 1857.8 million tons, up 4.2% year - on - year. Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. The pulp valuation is low, and sentiment has been boosted. Temporarily stay on the sidelines or conduct short - term operations [7]. Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. In July, New Zealand's log quotes rose, supporting the futures price. Port daily outbound volume decreased significantly last week, showing off - season features. As of July 11, the national port log inventory was 322 million cubic meters, down 1 million cubic meters. The inventory is low, and the pressure is small. Although there are supply - side positives, the lack of demand in the off - season limits price rebounds. Stay on the sidelines [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the current high good - rate of US soybeans and concentrated arrival of imported soybeans lead to short - term supply relaxation and pressure on the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture increases the demand for rapeseed meal, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The domestic rapeseed meal market is stronger than the external market due to trade policy uncertainty, and it may maintain short - term fluctuations [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the increase in palm oil inventory and the weakening of palm oil prices, along with the off - season of domestic oil consumption and high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills, restrain the market price. However, the decline in rapeseed oil production pressure and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future supply. The rapeseed oil market is boosted by the strengthening of soybean oil and shows increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9470 yuan/ton (up 66 yuan), rapeseed meal is 2653 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), ICE rapeseed is 689 Canadian dollars/ton (up 6.5 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed is 5065 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan) [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 72 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 344 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 14661 lots (up 228 lots), and for rapeseed meal are 24639 lots (up 10416 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal is 8911 (down 1175) [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9570 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the oil - meal ratio is 3.64 (unchanged) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 166 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 93 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8230 yuan/ton (unchanged), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8770 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2820 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the domestic annual forecast is 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 million tons (down 15.37 million tons) [2]. - Pressing profit and inventory: The import rapeseed crushing profit is 297 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons (down 5 million tons), and the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86% (down 2.67%) [2]. Industry Situation - Imports and inventories: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons (up 10 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons (up 4.13 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 9.29 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 1.51 million tons (up 1.05 million tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.29 million tons (up 1.18 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 2.46 million tons (up 0.14 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The current - month production of feed is 2762.1 million tons (up 98.1 million tons), and that of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons. The current - month catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales is 4578.2 billion yuan (up 411.2 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - Implied and historical volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.25% (down 0.17%), and that of put options is 19.25% (down 0.18%). For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of call options is 11.73% (down 1.76%), and that of put options is 11.72% (down 1.77%) [2]. Industry News - On July 15, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, driven by the rise of other oils. The most actively traded November contract rose 8.20 Canadian dollars to 690.80 Canadian dollars per ton. As of July 13, the good - rate of US soybeans was 70%, up 4 percentage points from the previous week and higher than the expected 67% [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced an investigation into foreign imports of drones and polysilicon, which may serve as leverage in trade negotiations with China [1][2] - China dominates the drone and polysilicon industries, with a 92.08% share of global polysilicon production in 2023 [2] - The investigation is based on Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows the U.S. government to impose tariffs if imports are deemed a threat to national security [2][3] Group 2 - Experts suggest that even if tariffs are imposed, the impact on Chinese industries may not be substantial, but it could strengthen hardline voices within China [5][6] - The U.S. has previously targeted Chinese drones, with restrictions dating back to 2016, and continues to view companies like DJI as security threats [7][10] - DJI holds a significant market share, controlling approximately 90% of the U.S. commercial drone market and 80% of the global consumer drone market [7][10] Group 3 - The demand for drones in the U.S. is expected to continue growing, with various sectors relying on them for applications such as agriculture, construction, and emergency response [10] - Despite efforts to promote domestic drone manufacturing, U.S. companies struggle to compete with DJI's performance and pricing [10] - The U.S. government has initiated measures to ensure that the drone supply chain is not reliant on foreign control, emphasizing the need for domestic production [10]

事实上，市场早已对特朗普的"关税言论"有所警觉。华尔街甚至戏称"TACO"（Trump Always Chickens Out，特朗普总是临阵退缩）来描述这种典型走势，即市场因特朗普威胁关税而下跌，但 又因他迟迟未落实而迅速反弹。 在新一轮谈判前夕，中美双方近期已在多个关键领域互释善意，展开"筹码交换"。贝森特在采访 中证实，特朗普政府已向英伟达(NVDA.US)保证，将向其发放许可，允许其向中国企业出售高端 图形处理器。他说："你可以认为这是我们在日内瓦和伦敦谈判中用过的一个筹码。整个过程就像 拼图一样。 他们有我们想要的东西，我们也有他们想要的。 " 点击蓝字，关注我们 随着中美之间90天关税休战期即将于8月12日到期，市场关注是否会迎来新一轮贸易摩擦。 随着中美之间90天关税休战期即将于8月12日到期，市场关注是否会迎来新一轮贸易摩擦。但美国 财政部长贝森特周二在接受采访时表示，投资者无需过度担心这一"最后期限"。 "我告诉市场参与者，不要担心8月12日。"贝森特在采访中说道。 他指的是5月12日宣布的中美90 天关税停战协议即将到期的日子。作为特朗普政府关税谈判的核心人物之一，贝森特此番言论， 意在为 ...