Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the br2511 contract is a price fluctuation between 10,800 - 11,400 yuan/ton. With the restart of previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants and increased production, and sufficient supply of butadiene, as well as the expected increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization, the market situation is expected to change accordingly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract position is 32,013 lots, an increase of 3,155 lots. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 245 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,870 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers shows a downward trend. The basis of synthetic rubber is 280 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 62.73 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.49 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 576.75 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 785 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,020 dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 58.9 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.61 dollars/barrel. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is 8,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.54 million tons/week, an increase of 0.01 million tons/week. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.37%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,750 tons, unchanged. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.43%, a decrease of 3.06 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory and trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber are unchanged [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 55.26%, a decrease of 18.32 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 50.87%, a decrease of 14.85 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.87 days, an increase of 0.36 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.7 days, a decrease of 0.23 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points compared to the previous period and 36.62 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points compared to the previous period and 0.78 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Some enterprises carried out shutdown and maintenance during the holiday, which affected the overall capacity utilization rate. In September 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. From January to September, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a 20% increase compared to the same period last year. In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber slightly declined. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points compared to the previous period and an increase of 12.16 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - The previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and the domestic output has increased. Some plants have also increased their production loads, and the overall output is expected to increase month - on - month. In October, although there are maintenance plans for butadiene plants of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical, the supply of butadiene is still abundant due to the recovery of previously under - loaded plants and imports. During the holiday, some domestic tire enterprises carried out maintenance, which significantly reduced the enterprise capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance enterprises resume production, the device capacity will be gradually released, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to increase significantly this week [2].

Core Viewpoint - Jule Co., Ltd. is transitioning to the Beijing Stock Exchange after multiple failed IPO attempts on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, amid significant leadership changes following the death of its chairman, Tong Enwen [1][2] Group 1: Company Leadership and Ownership - Following the death of chairman Tong Enwen, his daughter, Tong Zhu, inherited 73.35% of the company's shares, becoming the actual controller of Jule Co., Ltd. [1] - Gao Zhaohui, Tong Zhu's spouse, is now the chairman and general manager of the company [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and IPO Plans - Jule Co., Ltd. plans to raise 5.52 billion yuan through its IPO, a reduction of 8.11 billion yuan from previous plans [10] - The company has shown revenue growth of 5.1% and net profit growth of 18.4% for 2024, despite a general industry downturn [7][10] Group 3: Related Party Transactions - Concerns have been raised regarding potential irregularities in related party transactions, including higher sales prices to affiliated companies compared to third-party sales [3][4] - The company has been criticized for "going for the inferior" in transactions, acquiring less profitable subsidiaries while paying additional amounts [4][5] Group 4: Market Position and Competition - Jule Co., Ltd. relies heavily on the Sichuan market, with nearly 76% of its revenue coming from the region, which may limit growth potential [11] - The company faces intense competition from both regional and national dairy giants, with a market share of only 0.31% in the dairy industry from 2020 to 2022 [12] Group 5: Production Capacity and Utilization - The company's production capacity utilization has fluctuated, with rates of 85.29%, 78.44%, and 84.49% from 2022 to 2024 [10] - The industry is experiencing overcapacity, with a decline in national milk production expected in 2024, which may impact Jule Co., Ltd.'s growth [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Jule Co., Ltd. in its IPO journey, highlighting concerns over related party transactions and the company's financial health amidst industry competition and potential overcapacity [2][7]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jule Co., Ltd. has transitioned to the Beijing Stock Exchange after multiple failed attempts to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange over seven years [2]. - The company is known for its popular products "Suanle Milk" and "Chewable Yogurt," which have a strong market presence in Sichuan [2]. Group 2: Leadership Changes - The company's actual controller and chairman, Tong Enwen, passed away on September 6, 2025, leading to his daughter, Tong Zhu, inheriting 73.35% of the shares and becoming the new actual controller [2][3]. - Tong Zhu's spouse, Gao Zhaohui, is now the chairman and general manager of Jule Co., Ltd. [3]. Group 3: Related Party Transactions - Concerns have been raised regarding potential irregularities in related party transactions, particularly the "go for the inferior, leave the superior" practice, where the company may be favoring less profitable subsidiaries [5][6]. - Jule Co., Ltd. has been involved in transactions with its major supplier, Gansu Qianjin Modern Agriculture Development Group, which is also a related party, raising questions about the legitimacy of these dealings [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Despite a general downturn in the industry, Jule Co., Ltd. reported a revenue growth of 5.1% and a net profit increase of 18.4% for 2024, contrasting with the declining performance of its peers [10]. - The company’s revenue from related parties has been significant, with procurement from related parties accounting for 10% to 16% of total purchases from 2019 to 2021 [6][10]. Group 5: Distribution Channels - Jule Co., Ltd. relies heavily on distributors, with distributor revenue accounting for 75.7% to 70% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024, and distributor gross margins exceeding direct sales [9][10]. - The company has faced scrutiny over the sustainability of its revenue growth, particularly given the unusual performance of certain small distributors that contributed significantly to revenue but had limited operational history [10][11]. Group 6: Capacity Utilization and Market Challenges - The company has experienced fluctuating capacity utilization rates, with figures of 85.29%, 78.44%, and 84.49% from 2022 to 2024, indicating potential inefficiencies [13]. - Jule Co., Ltd. faces significant competition from both regional and national dairy giants, with a heavy reliance on its flagship product "Suanle Milk," which may limit growth prospects [14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In October, domestic pure benzene supply is expected to increase. The impact of maintenance of petroleum benzene plants is expected to decline, and the operating load of North China hydrobenzene plants has gradually recovered to a neutral level after the end of production restrictions in early September, with stable operation expected in the future. New plants for downstream styrene, caprolactam, and phenol are planned to be put into operation, with the converted production capacity higher than that of pure benzene, indicating a medium - to long - term improvement in supply - demand trends. However, large - scale styrene plants are still in the maintenance cycle, limiting the growth space of pure benzene demand. Recently, international oil prices have fallen and rebounded due to factors such as OPEC's slight increase in production, concerns about economic growth caused by the U.S. government shutdown, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. In the short term, the domestic pure benzene supply - demand situation is difficult to improve. Technically, BZ2603 has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, and the MACD green bar has widened, but the single - day K - line has a long lower shadow. Pay attention to the support near 5682 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract is 5763 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the settlement price is 5732 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan. The trading volume is 5189 lots, down 394 lots; the open interest is 12994 lots, up 615 lots. The mainstream price in the East China market is 5860 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the mainstream price in the North China market is 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northeast region is 5700 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu is 5825 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the mainstream price in Shanxi is 5740 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea is 699 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China is 709.5 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 68.38 US dollars/barrel, up 1.05 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan is 583.75 US dollars/ton, down 1.5 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output is 45.7 tons, up 0.16 tons. The port inventory at the end of the week is 10.6 tons, down 0.1 tons. The production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 73.24%, down 0.2 percentage points; the caprolactam capacity utilization rate is 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the phenol capacity utilization rate is 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the aniline capacity utilization rate is 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage points; the adipic acid capacity utilization rate is 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 19th to 25th, the pure benzene capacity utilization rate increased by 1.22% to 79.27% week - on - week, and the hydrobenzene capacity utilization rate increased by 4.05% to 63.99% week - on - week. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 1.24% to 76.37% week - on - week. As of October 9th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 9.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33.7%. From September 19th to 25th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 419 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [2].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke remain at a relatively high level. The peak demand season and the downstream's inventory replenishment space support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3][4] Group 2: Industry Analysis Coke Market - During the National Day holiday, the coking coal and coke market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Driven by downstream inventory replenishment, coke completed the first round of price increase at the beginning of the month. The price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and that of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [3] - After the first - round price increase of coke, coke enterprises' profits improved. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner [3] - Steel mills'开工 remained at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining at about 2.42 million tons, which supported the demand for raw materials [3] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market was generally stable, with individual mine prices experiencing high - level corrections. The current inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not obvious, which supported the relatively firm price [4] - Regarding imported coal, the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal at the pithead increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the equivalent warehouse price of about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It was rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance would increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, increasing the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, with a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needed continuous tracking [4]

Group 1: Sugar (Sector: Agriculture, Livestock) Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Volatile [1] Core View - After the holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures may rebound slightly, but there is strong resistance above, and the upside space is limited. The expected good production in major producing countries still suppresses the upward movement of sugar prices. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, SR601 closed at 5,479 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.02%, and at 5,493 yuan/ton in the night session; SR605 closed at 5,437 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.09%, and at 5,458 yuan/ton in the night session. [1] - **Important Information**: - The closing price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.32 cents/lb, with a daily decrease of 1.92%; the closing price of the London white sugar main contract was 451.3 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.57%. [1] - The spot transaction price of Guangxi white sugar before the holiday was 5,658 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. [1] - In September, Brazil exported 3,245,837.61 tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 16%. The average daily export volume was 147,538.07 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%. [1] - In the first half of September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15.72% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons. [1] - On September 30, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,968, a daily decrease of 13. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on sugar long positions opportunely and wait for opportunities to short at high prices. [1] Group 2: Red Dates (Sector: Agriculture, Livestock) Report Industry Investment Rating - Red dates: Volatile [3] Core View - Before the large - scale harvest of red dates, the futures market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the game on the opening price of new dates and the trends of long and short funds. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, CJ601 closed at 10,820 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.87%; CJ605 closed at 10,865 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.87%. [3] - **Important Information**: - As of September 26, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,203 tons, a decrease of 44 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. [3] - Before the holiday, the reference price of special - grade red dates in the Hebei market was 10.5 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg; the price of first - grade red dates was stable. [3] - Before the holiday, 3 trucks of red dates arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, the same as the previous day. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Treat the CJ601 contract as volatile in the short term, and recommend high - selling and low - buying. In the medium - to - long term, short far - month contracts at high prices. [3] Group 3: Rubber (Sector: Energy, Chemical) Report Industry Investment Rating - Rubber: Volatile and Weak [4] Core View - After the holiday, the domestic rubber futures market is expected to remain weak and volatile. Although there is some support from the heavy rainfall in Thailand, the overseas rubber market does not provide obvious support, and the domestic fundamentals remain unchanged. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: As of September 30, RU2601 closed at 15,375 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.61%; NR2511 closed at 12,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.04%; BR2511 closed at 11,340 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.79%. [4] - **Important Information**: - In September, the average monthly price of Thai latex was 55.79 Thai baht/kg, a month - on - month increase of 2.33%; the average monthly price of cup lump was 51.46 Thai baht/kg, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. [4] - In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 52.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 412.14 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47%. [4] - As of September 28, 2025, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 0.46 million tons to 38.71 million tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 1.18%. [4] - In September, the average monthly price of Shanghai full - latex was 14,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 367 yuan/ton from the previous month; the average monthly price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 458 yuan/ton from the previous month. [4] - In September, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.35 percentage points. [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions and wait and see as the rubber fundamentals currently lack positive support. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the supply of pure benzene will increase both domestically and through imports. The non - styrene downstream demand lacks support, and the demand in the styrene chain is expected to deteriorate. Pure benzene will remain in surplus, its valuation is difficult to repair and may even be further compressed, which will also drag down the price center of styrene. [1] - For styrene, large - scale plant maintenance has been extended and multiple operating plants have reduced their loads. Supply tightened in September, and is expected to increase continuously after the new plants are put into operation in mid - to - late October. The demand is expected to be "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". From the balance sheet, styrene will maintain a tight balance from September to November, but its high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene make it prone to decline and difficult to rise. [1] - Price range judgment: BZ (5500, 6300); EB (6500, 7300). The strategy is to consider shorting on rallies on a single - side basis and widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene on dips for inter - commodity trading. [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, the styrene market first rose and then fell, with the leading factors for both the rise and fall being raw material pure benzene. [1] - In the second quarter, styrene prices fluctuated, and several significant rallies and declines were affected by macro factors. [2] - In the third quarter, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene weakened, and the market fluctuations further narrowed. Under macro disturbances, the market mostly followed the overall commodity sentiment and cost - side prices. [2] - In mid - July, with policy announcements such as "anti - involution" and the investigation of old petrochemical plants, the macro became the trading focus again, and the market followed the raw material end to oscillate upwards. After the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the macro sentiment cooled, and the market declined. [2] - In late August, the terminal demand expectation deteriorated, the market's confidence in this year's peak season weakened, and new plant products impacted the market. The port inventory increased against the season, and the market broke through the support level and fell. [2] 3.2 Chapter 3: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.2.1 Valuation Situation - Pure benzene: At the end of the second quarter, it was expected that there would be a supply - demand gap of about 1.35 million tons in the third quarter, and the valuation might have a phased repair opportunity. However, in reality, the new production capacity was basically balanced, and due to weak demand, the valuation remained at a historical low. In the fourth quarter, supply will increase, demand will be weak, and the valuation is difficult to repair. [5] - Styrene: At the end of the second quarter, it was predicted that the profit in the styrene segment would be compressed, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene would narrow. In fact, the spread has been compressed, and currently, it is difficult for the spread to further narrow in the short term. In the future, the space for the spread to narrow or widen is limited. [5][7] 3.2.2 Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Outlook - **Domestic Supply**: In the third quarter, 1.44 million tons of pure benzene production capacity was put into operation, and the total domestic capacity reached 27.82 million tons. About 0.84 million tons of new capacity is expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and the annual capacity growth rate is expected to reach 11.39%. As of August, the cumulative production in 2025 was 14.6787 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. The monthly production in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 2 million tons. [10] - **Import**: In 2025, China's pure benzene imports increased significantly. The average monthly import from January to August was 460,000 tons, a 28.1% increase compared to the previous year. In the fourth quarter, due to the off - season of aromatics blending for gasoline in the US and the need for Europe to find a destination for its surplus pure benzene, the import is expected to be 480,000 - 500,000 tons per month, and the annual import volume is expected to reach 5.6 million tons, a 26.1% increase from the initial forecast. [15][16] - **Demand**: In 2025, except for styrene and caprolactam, the consumption growth rates of other major downstream products of pure benzene slowed down. The downstream comprehensive profit has been in a loss state for a long time. In the fourth quarter, the demand support from non - styrene downstream is weak. For example, caprolactam is facing high inventory in the industrial chain, and aniline is affected by anti - dumping and tariff policies. Phenol and adipic acid industries are in surplus, with only rigid demand. [22][27][30] - **Invisible Inventory**: In 2025, the port inventory decreased before the Spring Festival due to downstream stocking. After the Spring Festival, the high imports led to the accumulation of invisible inventory. In late September, downstream factories stocked up for the National Day holiday, and the invisible inventory reached a new high. [35] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In the fourth quarter, the supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high, while the demand is weak, resulting in a continuous surplus. [37] 3.2.3 Styrene Supply - Demand Outlook - **Supply**: In the first half of the year, there was no new styrene production capacity, only a 90,000 - ton capacity increase from the expansion of some plants. In the third quarter, 680,000 tons of new capacity was put into operation. In the fourth quarter, two 600,000 - ton plants are planned to be put into operation, and the annual capacity growth rate is expected to reach 8.86%. In September, supply tightened, and it is expected to increase after mid - to - late October. [39][40] - **Demand**: In the traditional off - season of July - August, the demand for 3S was relatively resilient due to new plant startups and pre - locked orders. However, terminal white - goods demand was affected by policies and tariffs, and the inventory of downstream products has accumulated. The demand for styrene is expected to be "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". [46][52] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From September to November, styrene will maintain a tight balance, but high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit its upward movement. [58] 3.3 Chapter 4: Core Concerns - **Pure Benzene Supply Changes**: In the fourth quarter, pure benzene supply is expected to remain high. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unplanned production cuts in domestic and foreign plants due to continuous valuation compression. [61] - **Regional Styrene Supply - Demand**: After the commissioning of Jingbo's styrene plant, Shandong has a styrene surplus and has become a price depression. Currently, focus on the operations of major plants in Shandong and the regional price spread between Shandong and East China. After the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical's styrene plants in October, pay attention to regional prices and logistics changes. [62] - **Near - Term Trading Logic**: In the short term, the提货 volume of pure benzene ports increased, and the paper - goods price and Sinopec's pure benzene listed price declined. The market interprets the increase in styrene maintenance losses as negative for pure benzene. [63] - **Long - Term Trading Logic**: In the fourth quarter, pure benzene supply will remain high, and it will be weak without macro - level support, dragging down styrene prices. Styrene's supply - demand situation is better than that of pure benzene, but high inventory and pure benzene's weakness make it prone to decline. The terminal demand expectation is poor, and macro factors should also be monitored. [64][65]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, indicating a mixed economic outlook with some sectors showing resilience while others face challenges. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, up by 0.61% month-on-month [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in August 2025 is -2.8 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The current price of London gold is at $3759 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Recent price changes include rebar down by 1.22%, cement price index up by 2.51%, rubber up by 0.34%, coking coal up by 2.78%, and iron ore up by 0.25% [5] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires have changed by +0.51 percentage points, -1.00 percentage points, +7.3 percentage points, and +0.06 percentage points respectively [5] - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in mid-September decreased by 0.67% month-on-month [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass have increased by 0.15% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit margins at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -1163 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is at 76.01% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.25%, copper up by 3.29%, and aluminum down by 0.05%, with corresponding profit margins showing mixed results [7] - The national operating rate for semi-steel tires is at 73.58%, down by 0.08 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The price of electrolytic copper has reached a new high since June at 82680 yuan/ton, up by 3.29% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is at 20830 yuan/ton, with estimated profits of 3665 yuan/ton, up by 2.98% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is at 269000 yuan/ton, down by 2.00% [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached a new low for the year at 84 times [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is at 4.00, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 150 yuan/ton [9] - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) is 130 yuan/ton, up by 18.18% from last week [9] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in August 2025 is at 47.20%, up by 0.1 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1087.41 points, down by 2.93% [10] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is at 77.40%, down by 0.50 percentage points [10] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index has increased by 1.07%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being industrial metals at +5.15% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB is at 33.74% and 88.92% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in stock prices of companies involved in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is closely linked to the current supply-demand imbalance in the industry, particularly driven by increasing demand from the energy storage sector [1][3]. Industry Summary - On September 29, stocks of Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy experienced significant increases, with Wanrun New Energy reaching a 20% limit-up and Hunan Youneng rising over 10% [1]. - Other companies specializing in LFP, such as Longpan Technology, Defang Nano, Fulian Precision, and Anda Technology, also saw considerable stock price increases [1]. - The monthly production of LFP is expected to show a consistent upward trend through 2025, benefiting from sustained demand, especially in the energy storage sector [3]. - A survey of 31 major LFP shipping companies revealed that 7 companies have a capacity utilization rate exceeding 100%, while 9 companies are operating at 80-95% capacity [4]. - The current market dynamics have shifted from a previous scenario of accepting all orders to a more selective approach by LFP suppliers, who are now choosing customers based on pricing and payment terms [6][8]. Pricing and Supply Dynamics - Suppliers are increasingly rejecting low-priced and long-term payment customers, opting instead for higher-paying clients [8][13]. - Some suppliers are fully booked and are exhibiting selective customer behavior, which has allowed weaker suppliers to secure more orders [9]. - Given the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, LFP material suppliers are initiating price increases, with one supplier raising processing fees by approximately 1,500 yuan per ton [10]. - Major suppliers are also notifying customers of price hikes due to a surge in new orders and limited production capacity [10].

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Hanxi - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019174 - Futures Trading Qualification Number: F3082452 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, asphalt continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. It followed the rise of crude oil, but the shipping resistance significantly increased, and the factory inventory accumulation rate increased month - on - month. In the short term, the valuation of asphalt may be weaker than that of crude oil. Attention should be paid to the trading situation in Shandong [4]. - The weekly average price of domestic asphalt was 3,627 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The price fluctuation range of the asphalt market was 3,621 - 3,631 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation range narrowed [4]. - The recommended strategy is to continue holding the reverse spread for the inter - period trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 40.1%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. Although some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns and production cuts, the resumption of asphalt production by Xinjiang Tianze, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai, along with the stable production of Shandong Shengxing, Dongming Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical, led to the increase in capacity utilization [4]. - **Demand**: The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 496,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.0%. Shandong had the most significant increase due to increased supply and good downstream construction demand. East China had the largest decrease because of intermittent production of major refineries and the preference of traders for low - cost resources in social warehouses [4]. - **Valuation**: The BU futures fluctuated and strengthened with crude oil, while the spot price remained stable. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt decreased, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. The prices in Southwest, South China, Shandong, and East China showed a downward trend, while the price in North China increased slightly [4]. 2. Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different crude oil varieties have different asphalt yields, and there are also impacts from import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight [7]. - **Futures - Market Price and Trading Positions**: The report presents data on the trading positions of asphalt futures, the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil, the spread between BU and SC, and the warehouse receipts of BU in different regions [9][10][11]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: It shows the price trends of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions, the price differences between regions, and the production profit margin of asphalt in Shandong [13]. - **Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report provides historical data on the basis in Shandong, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta regions, as well as the calendar spread data [15][16][17]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Demand** - **Consumption Distribution**: The demand for asphalt mainly comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the ship - fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [22]. - **Downstream Shipment**: From September 17 - 23, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 9.0% month - on - month. Shandong had the most significant increase, while East China had the largest decrease. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [25]. - **Supply** - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: In October 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.35 million tons. From September 19 - 25, 2025, the weekly total production was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 tons. As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of 54 asphalt samples increased by 0.9%, and the social inventory of 104 samples decreased by 1.8% [31]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions over the years [34][35][37]. - **Inventory**: It presents the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions and the total inventory rate of the asphalt market over the years [43][44][48].