和谈超预期是事实，这从本周A股、美股的上涨，A债、黄金的下跌中，可见一斑。 伙伴们，大家好，这周前面四天没更新，大家催更的私信等，就不一一回复了，感谢大家的惦念 ，借用一图，略表此刻的心情。 本公众号会继续为大家，每日用大白话解读一下金融市场的时事，尽可能剥开底层的逻辑，这些 初心都不会变。 ...... 这周，从中美贸易和谈超预期开始，又有周三银行股一度飙涨的戏码，显然算是很刺激的一周， 我积 累了一些想聊且有意义的话题 ，正好趁今天，把本周的重要事件，总结为8条，和大家简单展开一下。 1、短期来看，中美和谈超预期，但到今天为止，对利好交易的差不多了。 高血压的那边 ，虽然4月的CPI和PPI数据，都没有显示通胀进一步走高的态势，但是市场普遍判断，是 因为此前的库存发挥了作用，而昨晚 沃尔玛 发布最新一季财报后，也明确表示，这个月就要开始提 价，即使是30%的关税，也很可能导致部分商品，有两位数以上的涨价——以沃尔玛在美国的零售市场 占比看，这是一个很明确的微观信号。 另外， 鲍师傅 昨天也出来表示，货币政策的框架可能会优化，说的很绕，其实我总结一下就是，后续 多看少动，即使通胀起来了，也不会阶段性打压，表 ...

极目新闻记者 刘闪 实习生 张天 高墨瞳 今年5月15日，是第七个"5·15全国投资者保护宣传日"。自央行5月7日实施降准降息政策后，多家中小 银行陆续下调存款利率。其中，多数中小银行执行新的存款利率后迈入"1时代"，我们普通投资者该如 何进行投资？极目新闻记者采访了业内专家。 多家中小银行下调存款利率 5月7日举行的国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布：降准0.5个百分点，向市场提供长 期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点；下调个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点。 武汉科技大学金融证券研究所所长王伟分析，央行和金融监管总局、证监会出台了"一揽子金融政策支 持稳市场稳预期"政策，其中降准降息旨在稳定市场和提升消费，然而，这一政策也对居民投资收益带 来一定影响，受LPR下调、存量房贷利率调整、让利实体经济等多重因素影响，银行净息差持续收窄， 资产收益减少，需要调整收益和负债成本，因而导致存款利率下降。不过，他认为，当前利率已处低 位，进一步下调对投资和消费刺激作用有限，短期内存款利率大幅下调的可能性已经不大。 避免盲目投资落入"高收益"陷阱 当银行的利息变少了之后，普通投资者可能会将自 ...

21世纪经济报道记者张欣 北京报道 低利率时代，中国上市银行正面临显著的经营挑战。 近日，安永发布《中国上市银行 2024 年回顾及未来展望》报告，以"低利率时代的高质量发展之路"为 主题，对58家上市银行展开深度剖析。这58家银行总资产和净利润分别占全国商业银行的83%和 96%， 其经营动态与发展策略，成为洞察中国银行业的重要风向标。 报告显示，上市银行平均净息差已连续五年下滑，2024 年更是跌至1.52%，盈利空间不断压缩。在宏观 环境不确定性加剧、国际经济震荡、国内需求不足等多重压力下，银行机构积极以"加减法"破局：做 "加法"，通过拓展非息收入、补充资本实力、深耕科技金融等 "五篇大文章" 挖掘新增长点；做 "减 法"，在压降负债成本、严控运营费用、强化风险管理等方面精准施策，谋求突围之道。 上市银行净息差持续探底，五年降至1.52% 安永大中华区金融服务首席合伙人忻怡指出，2024年中国上市银行面临更加严峻复杂的经营环境。银行 业进入低利率低息差周期，同时面临宏观环境不确定性加大，国际主要经济体增长动能减弱，地缘政策 冲突持续，贸易冲突和金融市场波动加剧，国内有效需求不足，经济回稳向好基础不稳定 ...

Group 1 - Recent phenomenon of deposit rate inversion observed in some small and medium-sized banks, with 1-year deposit rate (2%) higher than 5-year deposit rate (1.95%) [1] - This inversion reflects market expectations of future interest rate trends, indicating a potential long-term low interest rate environment in China [1][2] - Historical context shows that similar situations in the U.S. have preceded interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, suggesting that China's current scenario may imply future rate reductions by the central bank [2] Group 2 - Current 1-year LPR is 3.45% and 5-year LPR is 3.95%, while deposit rates have fallen below 2%, raising questions about whether 2% could become the new normal [3] - International experiences from Japan and Europe indicate that prolonged low growth can lead to sustained low interest rates, which China may face due to economic challenges [3] Group 3 - The occurrence of negative inflation in China, with CPI below 1% and PPI showing negative growth, could lead to further interest rate cuts by the central bank to alleviate debt burdens [4] - However, historical lessons from Japan suggest that low interest rates alone may not stimulate borrowing and consumption, necessitating complementary fiscal policies and structural reforms [4] Group 4 - The interest rate inversion poses challenges for banks, particularly in terms of narrowing net interest margins, with some banks nearing regulatory warning lines [5] - Banks may face a dilemma between lowering deposit rates to maintain profitability and risking customer attrition to alternative investments [5] Group 5 - In a declining interest rate environment, traditional savings become less attractive, prompting investors to adjust asset allocation strategies [6] - Recommended strategies include increasing bond allocations, focusing on equity assets with stable cash flows, and considering alternative investments like gold and REITs [7][8] - The low interest rate environment may necessitate early adjustments in investment strategies to seek higher returns while managing risks [8]

今天各位心理路程应该是这样式的： "哇！→诶？→……" "不敢睁开眼，希望是我的幻觉~" 隔夜全球股市大涨，纳指涨超4%重返牛市，在港股昨日尾盘飙涨5%的情况下，中概指数同样暴拉5.4%，阿里涨近6%。 对昨日刚刚好掐着重磅利好的收盘A股而言，今日可谓是承受着万众期待。 然而今日这个结果只能说，我大A每一次都不按套路出牌。 而申万二级行业中依然未收复"对等关税"失地的有：旅游、水泥、煤炭、医疗服务、光伏设备等，其中光伏设备行业截至5月9日的缺口修复程度刚过半。 A股领涨的板块也很出乎意料，光伏、银行，其中中信银行、光大银行等多股创历史新高。 市场究竟在搞什么？ 1 光伏板块突发大涨 看似出其不意的背后，往往有迹可循。 截至上周五，中美股市都触及已经摸到4.2"对等关税"的水平：A股、港股都在刚好接近4月2日水平之前出现回落。 | 序号 | 指数名称 | 4月8日-5月9日涨跌幅% | 4月7日涨跌幅% | 缺口回补程度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | SW旅游及景区 | 1.78 | -8.26 | 21.56% | | 2 | SW水泥 | 3.07 | -8 ...

新华财经北京5月13日电 安永13日发布《中国上市银行2024年回顾及未来展望》报告。该报告深度分析 了中国58家上市银行（包括15家A+H股、27家A股及16家H股上市银行）2024年度的经营业绩、资产质 量、业务发展、经营模式等方面的最新变化，并展望未来发展方向，探索银行业在低利率时代下的高质 量发展路径。 受市场利率持续下行、存量按揭贷款利率下调和持续让利实体经济等因素影响，2024年上市银行净息差 进一步收窄，平均净息差为1.52%，较上年下降17个基点，已连续五年下降，最近三年净息差均低于 2%。受净息差收窄的影响，上市银行2024年度净利息收入同比下降2.20%，连续2年下降。 安永大中华区金融服务首席合伙人忻怡表示："当前的低利率环境预计还将持续一段时期。银行业在进 入'低利率、低息差'周期的同时，还面临宏观环境的不确定性加大，国际上主要经济体增长动能偏弱、 地缘政治冲突持续、贸易冲突和金融市场波动加剧，国内有效需求不足、经济回升向好基础还不稳固。 复杂多变的环境对上市银行的经营发展带来重大挑战。面对挑战，上市银行一方面做加法：多元开源拓 展非息收入，优化营收结构；多渠道补充资本，夯实服务实体经 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking industry Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges faced by the banking industry due to a prolonged low interest rate environment, which has led to a decrease in net interest margins and interest income [15][24] - Despite these challenges, the banking sector has managed to maintain stable net profits and revenue through cost reduction and efficiency improvements [26][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying income sources and enhancing capital strength to navigate the current economic landscape [16][17][18] Summary by Sections Overview: Path to High-Quality Development in a Low-Interest Rate Era - The average net interest margin for listed banks has decreased to 1.52%, down 17 basis points year-on-year, marking five consecutive years of decline [15] - The report anticipates that the low interest rate environment will persist, impacting banks' operating income significantly [15] Continuous Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - Listed banks achieved a net profit of RMB 22,219.45 billion in 2024, a growth of 2.42% compared to 2023 [28] - The overall revenue for listed banks was RMB 58,702.51 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.06% year-on-year [38] Serving the Real Economy - Banks are focusing on supporting new productive forces and enhancing their service capabilities in key areas such as pension finance and digital finance [18][20] Facing Transformation Challenges - The report discusses the need for banks to explore new retail development dynamics and adapt to changing consumer needs [18] Social Responsibility and Sustainable Development - Listed banks are increasingly focusing on green finance, with a total green loan balance of RMB 27.72 trillion, growing by 20.60% year-on-year [20] Deepening Risk Control - The non-performing loan balance for listed banks reached RMB 22,866.67 billion, with a slight decrease in the average non-performing loan ratio to 1.26% [22] Embracing Artificial Intelligence - The report notes that 25 listed banks disclosed technology investment amounts totaling RMB 197.27 billion, indicating a focus on improving operational efficiency through technology [18] Outlook - The report projects that the banking sector will continue to face uncertainties and challenges in 2025, necessitating a focus on policy alignment and service to the real economy [24]

低利率时代已悄然而至。近年来，受经济周期、宏观政策、金融结构和银行经营战略等多重因素影响， 我国金融市场进入低利率时代，对企业融资、资本市场运行乃至全球经济增长产生了深远的影响，也深 刻影响着普通投资者的财富管理策略。 在当前资本市场的复杂环境中，投资者对于稳定回报的需求愈发强烈。高股息率的股票因其稳定的现金 回报和相对较低的风险，成为许多投资者的首选。作为国内领先的综合性电力企业，国投电力 （600886）控股股份有限公司(以下简称"国投电力")是高股息上市公司的典型代表，凭借其高股息政策 和稳健的经营业绩，成为资本市场上备受关注的投资标的。 高股息标的是资产配置重要组成部分 2025年，迈入低利率时代的进程，正在加速。今年两会期间，中国人民银行行长3月6日对外表示，今年 将根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，择机降准降息。 国债利率保持在低位。根据财政部安排，2025年第一期和第二期储蓄国债(凭证式)从3月10日至19日发 行，其中：第一期国债发行额为150亿元，期限3年，票面年利率为1.93%；第二期国债发行额为150亿 元，期限5年，票面年利率为2.0%。 投资是一门复杂学科。在当前资本市场的复 ...

Group 1 - In February, 12 out of 20 industries in Canada experienced a decline, while the manufacturing sector grew by 0.6% [1] - The financial and insurance sectors have seen a continuous increase for three months, with a growth rate of 0.7% in February, partially offsetting the overall economic downturn [1] - The winter storms in central, eastern Canada, and British Columbia have negatively impacted the economy, particularly affecting the transportation and warehousing sector, which declined by 1.1% [4] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the unexpected decline in February is likely due to severe weather rather than tariff uncertainties, with significant impacts on mining, oil and gas, transportation, and real estate sectors [6] - The manufacturing sector is highlighted as a "bright spot," with a 0.6% growth in February, driven mainly by durable goods manufacturing, particularly machinery, which grew by 5.9% [7] - Deloitte's economic outlook predicts that the Canadian economy will enter a recession in the second quarter of this year, with a projected GDP growth rate of -1.1% for Q2 and -0.9% for Q3 [11][12] Group 3 - The Bank of Canada indicates that the era of low interest rates may be coming to an end, with a forecasted benchmark interest rate of 2.25% by the end of 2025, which is still higher than most of the 2010s [14] - The unemployment rate is expected to exceed 7% this year, with a projected loss of 75,000 jobs in the next two quarters, particularly in export-sensitive sectors like manufacturing, steel, and aluminum [14] - The current trade threats could lead to a permanent reduction of about 3% in Canada's real GDP by 2030 if exceptions in the USMCA are removed, highlighting the urgency to address long-term economic issues [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that index-based structured products are in high demand in a low-interest-rate environment, indicating a broad development prospect for these assets [1] - Since 2017, the fixed income department of CITIC Securities has been engaged in the market-making business for over-the-counter derivatives and structured products related to domestic government bonds, offering competitive product solutions and trading quotes [1] - CITIC Securities has leading capabilities in the design and trading of over-the-counter derivatives and structured products linked to government bond futures indices, providing customized trading solutions based on clients' market views [1] Group 2 - The government bond futures index allows market makers to offer more flexible trading structures and richer trading strategies compared to government bond futures [2] - The index, published by the China Securities Index Company, serves as a third-party recognized benchmark for structured products and provides a hedging underlying asset for multi-strategy products [2] - The fixed income department of CITIC Securities aims to combine tool-type indices with trading strategies, enhancing the productization of indices and offering a wider range of index-based over-the-counter derivatives and structured product solutions to the market [2]