Core Points - The article discusses the announcement by U.S. President Trump regarding a new round of tariffs on products from eight countries, specifically increasing the tariff on Philippine products to 20% from the previously announced 17% [1][2] - The increase in tariffs is seen as a move to address the trade deficit with the Philippines, which reached $4.9 billion last year, a 21.8% increase from the previous year [1] - The article highlights the dissatisfaction expressed by experts regarding the sudden change in tariff rates, which could undermine the credibility of the U.S. as a negotiating partner [2][3] Summary by Sections Tariff Announcement - Trump announced a new tariff rate of 20% on Philippine products, effective August 1, which is higher than the previously stated 17% [1] - The rationale behind the increase is unclear, but it may be related to a framework agreement reached with Vietnam, which saw its tariff reduced from 46% to 20% [1][2] Trade Deficit Context - The U.S. trade deficit with the Philippines was $4.9 billion last year, with imports from the Philippines significantly exceeding exports [1] - In contrast, the trade deficit with Vietnam was much larger at $123.5 billion [1] Expert Opinions - Gregory Poling from CSIS speculated that the new tariff rate might be a benchmark based on the agreement with Vietnam [1] - Henrietta Levin criticized the U.S. for undermining trust with the Philippines, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to be a reliable partner in Southeast Asia to effectively compete with China [2] Philippine Response - The Philippine ambassador to the U.S. indicated that further negotiations would take place to lower the 20% tariff [2][3] - The Philippines had previously planned to increase imports of U.S. products to negotiate lower tariffs, but the new rate may dampen optimism regarding these efforts [3] Comparison with Other Countries - The tariffs imposed on the Philippines are significantly lower than those on Brazil, which faces a 50% tariff, and other countries facing tariffs as high as 30% [5][6] - Trump's tariff decisions appear to be influenced by personal grievances rather than purely economic considerations, as seen in the case of Brazil [5][6]

这也是今年4月特朗普政府对药品专项关税发起"232条款"调查以来，特朗普就此发表的最新言论。 特朗普表示，关税将激励制药公司将生产业务转移到美国。但白宫此前表示，在美国新建的药品生产 设施可能需要5到10年时间才有望投产。 对进口药品征收关税可能大幅推高美国药品的价格。对此许多制药公司已经表示反对，并警告称，征 税可能会推高成本，阻碍在美国的投资，扰乱药品供应链，使患者面临风险。 2025.07. 10 辉瑞公司CEO艾伯乐（Albert Bourla）此前表示，关税威胁正在阻碍辉瑞进一步在美国进行研发和 制造方面的投资。礼来公司CEO戴文睿（Dave Ricks）也表示，他并不认为关税能解决围绕美国药 品供应链的"国家安全"担忧。 本文字数：1134，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 钱童心 美国总统特朗普在近日的一场内阁会议上表示，很快将宣布对美国进口药品征收"非常高"的关 税。"比如200%。"特朗普称。 具体征税细节预计将于本月底公布。但特朗普同时称，关税不会立即生效，将会给企业留出一年至一 年半的缓冲期。 从资本市场的表现来看，制药公司并未理会特朗普的言论。7月9日美股收盘，礼来、诺华、阿斯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The machine tool orders in Japan for the April to June period increased by 3% year-on-year, reaching 392 billion yen, driven by overseas demand, particularly from China's EV sector, despite a decline in domestic orders [1][2]. Group 1: Order Trends - The total order amount for April to June was 392 billion yen, with domestic orders decreasing by 4% and overseas orders increasing by 7% [1]. - The overseas orders were significantly influenced by the demand for EV-related equipment from China, with companies like Tsugami reporting a "good" order situation due to this investment [1][2]. - Although the total orders for this period were lower than the active EV investment period in 2022 (463 billion yen), they showed a recovery trend compared to 2023 and 2024 [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Insights - Large enterprises are proceeding with planned investments, while small and medium-sized enterprises remain cautious due to uncertainties in the automotive sector's EV development [2]. - The total order amount for June saw a slight decline to 133.1 billion yen, marking the first monthly decrease in nine months, but the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association (JMTBA) stated that there are no signs of a sustained negative impact on future orders [2]. Group 3: Future Projections - The JMTBA forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in total orders for 2025, reaching 1.6 trillion yen, considering a recovery in automotive and semiconductor-related equipment investments in the second half of the year [2]. - The potential for increased orders exists if uncertainties from tariff policies are resolved, as indicated by Okuma, while Tsugami expressed concerns about a possible slowdown in China's EV investments [2].

Core Viewpoint - The decision by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper is shocking in both timing and scale, significantly impacting the copper market and global supply chain [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the tariff, COMEX copper prices surged by 17%, reaching historic highs, while LME copper prices experienced volatility, with a price range between $9,769.50 and $9,553.00 per ton [1][4]. - Analysts predict that the price differential between New York and London copper will continue to widen, potentially reaching 50% as U.S. importers rush to purchase copper ahead of the tariff implementation [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The U.S. is heavily reliant on copper imports, with the U.S. Geological Survey estimating a consumption of 3.4 million tons in 2024, nearly half of which will be imported [1][2]. - The U.S. domestic copper production is only 1.1 million tons, a 3% decline year-on-year, which is minimal compared to the global production of 23 million tons [1][2]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Outlook - Analysts express concerns that the U.S. has underinvested in copper mining and refining for decades, making self-sufficiency nearly impossible in the short term [2]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts global copper demand to reach 26.7 million tons in 2024, with a 7% increase over the past three years and a projected 17% growth by 2030 [4]. Group 4: Economic Impact on U.S. Companies - U.S. companies are expected to bear the brunt of the tariff, leading to increased costs for copper, especially as the dollar has depreciated by approximately 15% this year [6][7]. - The uncertainty created by the tariff announcement has left many in the copper trading and production sectors confused, with potential negative implications for all domestic copper consumers [7].

Canalys （现并入 Omdia ）最新数据显示， 2025 年第二季度，台式机、笔记本电脑 和工作站的总出货量同比增长 7.4% ，达到 6760 万台。其中，笔记本（包括移动工作站）出货 量达 5390 万台，同比增长 7% ；台式机（包括台式工作站）出货量增长 9% ，达到 1370 万台。 本季度的增长主要得益于 Windows 10 服务即将终止前的大规模商用 PC 部 署。然而，消费者需求相对疲软，因全球用户普遍面临不确定的宏观经济前景。特朗普政府多变且不明确的关税 政策持续带来不确定性。尽管第二季度 PC 设备尚未被纳入加征关税范围，但相关的间接影响仍可能阻碍 美国乃至全球 PC 市场的复苏进程。 Canalys （现并入 Omdia ）首席分析师叶茂盛（ Ben Yeh ）表示： " 特朗普政府不断演变的关税政策正在重塑全球 PC 供应链，并为市场复苏带来显著不确定 性。为规避潜在关税，美国 PC 进口已大幅从中国转向越南。尽管特朗普的对等关税再度被推迟至 8 月 1 日，且目前无论原产地为何， PC 仍被豁免于关税之外，但潜在的不确定 性依然存在。近期美越贸易协议规定，对越南商品征收 2 ...

全球知名资产管理公司Baillie Gifford认为，中国科技巨头的前景现在更多取决于本土消费者情绪，而非关税政策。 7月10日，据媒体报道，Baillie Gifford首席执行官兼管理合伙人Tim Campbell在接受采访时表示，"中国消费者的实际状况比与美国的关税协议重 要得多"。中国对美出口规模不到中国零售销售总额的十分之一，本土消费市场的重要性远超贸易摩擦。 他认为，中国经济正经历类似现代发达经济体的正常经济周期，政策制定者有充分选择来管理这一过程。 在全球层面，Baillie Gifford正押注其认为具备适应性的企业，例如亚马逊和韩国电商企业Coupang，预计它们将在特朗普关税政策可能造成的经 济冲击后变得更加强大。 该基金管理公司爱丁堡合伙人Gavin Scott表示，这一判断基于2008年全球金融危机的经验。他表示： "各行业中最强大的企业会因此而蓬勃发展，因为它们的竞争地位变得更加强大。" Baillie Gifford旗下长期全球增长基金过去一年回报率达23%，跑赢95%的同类基金，同期标普500指数涨幅仅为13%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建 ...

当地时间7月9日， 美股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘， 纳斯达克指数上涨0.94%， 创历史新高； 道 琼斯工业指数上涨0.49%，标普500指数上涨0.61%。 当地时间7月9日，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会6月17日至18日的会议纪要。 会议纪要显示，美联储 同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普9日上午致信菲律宾、文莱、摩尔多瓦、阿尔及利亚、伊拉克和利比亚6 个国家的领导人，通知他们将对这些国家输美商品征收新关税，新税率 将从8月1日起生效。 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到 先得！ 美联储会议纪要公布 内部分歧明显 美股大型科技股 多数上涨 ，美国科技七巨头指数上涨1.25%。 据央视新闻报道， 美联储公布的6月会议纪要 显示，美联储同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.5%之间。与会者一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明经济活 动继续稳步扩张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍然略高。 与会者 一致认为，经济前景的不确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。 英伟达 ...

原油日报 | 2025-07-10 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨5美分，收于每桶68.38美元，涨幅为0.07%；9月交货的伦敦布 伦特原油期货价格上涨4美分，收于每桶70.19美元，涨幅为0.06%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.85%，报520元/桶。 2、阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至7月7日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为2068.5万桶， 比一周前增加了15.29万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存增加63.7万桶至812.4万桶，中质馏分油库存减少41.6万桶至230.6 万桶，重质残渣燃料油库存增加130.8万桶至1025.5万桶。(来源：Bloomberg） 3、美国财政部网站宣布对伊朗实施额外制裁。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、受特朗普关税政策影响，巴西雷亚尔跌幅扩大，下跌1.6%。（来源：Bloomberg） 5、美国至7月4日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 46.4万桶，前值-149.3万桶。当周EIA原油库存 707万桶，预 期-207.1万桶，前值384.5万桶。当周EIA战略石油储备库存 23.8万桶，前值23.9万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 6、 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 如果美国关税对日本企业利润造成严重冲击，加息时间可能进一步推迟至2026财年。 日本央行去年退出长达十年的大规模刺激计划，并于今年1月将利率提高至0.5%，认为日本即将实现2% 的通胀目标。尽管日本央行曾表示准备进一步加息，但美国关税的预期影响促使行长植田和男暗示暂停 加息。 樱井真表示，日本央行希望最终将利率至少提高至1%，理想情况下达到1.5%，但目前由于关税问题， 加息难以合理化。 据大和证券估计，特朗普提议对日本商品征收25%的对等关税，可能会使日本的实际GDP累计减少 1.1%。该机构的经济学家预计，2025财年日本的实际GDP增长率仅为0.1%-0.2%，较2024财年的0.8%大 幅放缓。虽然关税可能不会引发重大冲击，但持续的劳动力短缺可能会维持通胀压力。因此，日本央行 可能会继续逐步加息，而不是放松政策以应对经济增长放缓。 外汇交易员对日元的兴趣持续减弱，交易员因担心特朗普关税政策对经济的影响，减少了对日本央行立 即加息的预期。美元兑日元目前交投于146上方，本周累计涨幅达1.5%，创去年12月中旬以来最大单周 涨幅。美日贸易谈判陷入僵局，且7月20日日本参议院选举前财 ...

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