1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the wave of de - leveraging trading of risk funds triggered by macro shocks gradually subsided, precious metal prices stabilized and rebounded in February. The Middle East shock leading to soaring oil prices may raise inflation pressure again, and the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy outlook increases. The adjustment of precious metals is not over, and the market will maintain high volatility through high - level oscillations. Gold price is expected to be stronger than silver price, and the gold - silver ratio will continue to be upwardly revised [4][50]. - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuate between macro pressure and supply crisis, and it is difficult to have an independent market in the short term. If the US imposes high tariffs on Russian palladium and the EU bans imports of Russian platinum - group metals and copper, the platinum - palladium market pattern will be reshaped. In the medium - to - long term, the price increase of platinum and palladium is optimistic, and investors can go long after the adjustment [4][50]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Precious Metal Market Review - In January, precious metal prices plummeted due to the hawkish expectations triggered by Trump's nomination of Wash as the Fed chairman candidate. In February, prices were in shock consolidation and recovered part of the decline. Driven by factors such as the escalation of the US - Iran situation, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and weak US economic data, precious metal prices rebounded. The monthly increase of COMEX gold futures main contract was 7.92%, and that of COMEX silver futures main contract was 10.72%. The supply - side risk events of platinum and palladium supported their prices, with the monthly increase of NYMEX platinum futures main contract at 9.09% and that of palladium futures main contract at 5.51% [9]. - On February 28, the US and Israel attacked Iran, and on March 1, Iran reported that the Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed. The escalation of the Middle - East conflict had a huge impact on oil prices but limited impact on precious metal prices. The conflict continues, and the development of the Middle - East situation needs to be continuously monitored [10]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Intensified Middle - East Geopolitical Conflicts and US Tariff Disturbances - On February 28, the US and Israel attacked Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran launched large - scale military retaliation and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has lasted for more than a week and shows an escalating trend, which may lead to an increase in global inflation pressure. The US - Iran conflict has a long - term and complex nature, and the negotiation in Geneva in February 2026 was the fuse [15][16]. - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's large - scale tariffs were illegal, and then Trump announced a new round of 10% global tariffs for 150 days, threatening to raise the rate to 15%. This tariff policy has caused concerns about the escalation of the trade war and the process of de - dollarization [16]. 3.2.2 US Economic Slowdown, Persistent Inflation Pressure, Disappointing Employment, and Increased Uncertainty of Fed Policy - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the initial value of the US real GDP slowed to 1.4%, far lower than the expected 2.8%, and was the slowest growth rate since the tariff shock in the first quarter of 2025. The slowdown was mainly due to the decline in government spending, exports, and the slowdown of consumer spending growth. The government shutdown in the fourth quarter dragged down the GDP by about 1 percentage point [17]. - In December 2025, the US core PCE index increased by 3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, reaching the largest increase in nearly a year. The recent escalation of the US - Iran conflict has added variables to inflation. The February 2026 non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, with a decrease of 92,000 non - farm employment people, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. After excluding disturbances, the US labor market continued the mid - term trend of mild cooling [18]. - Due to the marginal weakening of the labor market and the rising geopolitical risks, the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy has increased. The Fed is unlikely to relax monetary policy in advance before confirming the downward trend of inflation. It is expected that there will be no interest - rate cuts during Powell's tenure, and there may be 1 - 2 interest - rate cuts of 25BP in the second half of the year when Wash becomes the Fed chairman [19]. 3.3 Precious Metal Market Analysis 3.3.1 Gold and Silver Market Analysis - The gold - silver ratio on COMEX quickly repaired. It reached a low of 46 at the end of January, fluctuated greatly in February, and is expected to continue to rise [23]. - The global gold - buying rhythm is differentiated. In 2025, global official institutions increased their gold holdings by 863 tons. China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves, while the central banks of Poland and Russia have plans or actions to sell gold reserves. In the context of de - globalization, central banks' demand for gold is expected to continue to increase [26][27]. - The holdings of gold and silver ETFs decreased. As of March 6, the gold holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 16 tons compared with the high at the end of January, and the silver holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - SPDR decreased by 608 tons compared with a month ago [29]. - The risk of silver delivery squeeze has been weakened. Although the silver inventory in New York and Shanghai is still decreasing, forward - looking indicators do not show a signal of intensifying contradictions. The delivery pressure is not expected to intensify in March, but there is a possibility of an increase in May. Domestic exchanges have adjusted the position and delivery rules of silver futures to suppress the risk of squeeze [33][34]. 3.3.2 Platinum and Palladium Market Analysis - The price ratios of platinum and palladium to gold and silver are still at low levels. Platinum and palladium prices rebounded in February, with platinum performing better than palladium. The price ratios of platinum and palladium to gold and silver are in the historical low - level range, and their potential for price increase is optimistic [39]. - The US platinum and palladium inventories have decreased but are still at a high level. The inventories of NYMEX platinum and palladium increased significantly in 2025 and continued to increase in January 2026, with a slight decrease in February. The spot lease rates of platinum and palladium are still at a relatively high level, indicating a tight spot market [43]. - The US plans to impose high tariffs on Russian palladium, and if implemented, it will reshape the market pattern. The US plans to impose an anti - dumping tax of nearly 133% on Russian palladium, and the EU is considering an import ban on Russian platinum - group metals and copper. These measures will impact the global platinum - palladium supply chain and market pattern [47][49]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - The adjustment of precious metals is not over, and the market will maintain high volatility through high - level oscillations. Gold price is expected to be stronger than silver price, and the gold - silver ratio will continue to be upwardly revised [50]. - Platinum and palladium prices are fluctuating between macro pressure and supply crisis, and it is difficult to have an independent market in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the price increase of platinum and palladium is optimistic, and investors can go long after the adjustment [50].

Summary of Conference Call on Precious Metals and Tin Market Industry Overview - The conference focused on the precious metals and tin markets, discussing investment opportunities and strategies in these sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points on Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: The discussion emphasized the defensive attributes of gold, its price influencing factors, and its performance over the past two years, highlighting gold's importance as a store of value [2][4][21]. - **Inflation and Economic Crisis**: Gold's role as a hedge against inflation and economic crises was analyzed, noting that inflation is driven by credit expansion and excessive money supply, while crises can arise from wars, debt crises, or asset bubbles [5][21]. - **Gold vs. Dollar**: The relationship between gold and the dollar was explored, indicating a negative correlation, but noting that both can serve as safe-haven assets during certain economic conditions [6][21]. - **Total Factor Productivity (TFP)**: The cyclical relationship between TFP and gold prices was discussed, suggesting that gold performs well during periods of technological bottlenecks [7][21]. - **De-dollarization Impact**: The effects of de-dollarization on gold prices were examined, with historical parallels drawn to past de-dollarization cycles coinciding with TFP bottlenecks [8][21]. - **Market Predictions**: The potential for a gold bull market was discussed, emphasizing the inverse relationship between gold prices and real interest rates, and suggesting strategies for timing investments based on economic conditions [9][21]. - **Economic Data Influence**: The impact of economic data on gold pricing was highlighted, particularly the importance of actual values versus market expectations [10][21]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The influence of geopolitical risks on gold prices was noted, with suggestions for using historical data to gauge potential price movements during crises [11][21]. - **U.S. Economic Analysis**: The current state of the U.S. economy was analyzed, indicating that while employment data may pressure gold prices, long-term inflation trends could support gold prices [12][21]. - **Federal Reserve Policies**: The discussion included insights on the Federal Reserve's policies and their implications for the gold market, with expectations of continued opportunities in gold throughout the year [13][21]. Key Points on Tin Market - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The tin market's supply-demand fundamentals were discussed, emphasizing the importance of monitoring supply changes and processing costs [2][14][19]. - **Price Trends**: Tin prices saw a 10% year-over-year increase in 2025, with significant fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors and speculative trading [14][31]. - **Resource Nationalism**: The impact of resource nationalism in countries like Indonesia and Myanmar on tin supply was highlighted, with policies affecting mining operations and export regulations [17][31]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The influence of geopolitical instability in regions like Congo on tin supply was discussed, noting that while actual supply disruptions may be limited, market sentiment can be significantly affected [18][33]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Recommendations were made to focus on key listed companies in the tin sector, such as Xiyu Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin, for potential investment opportunities [19][33]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The conference emphasized the need for investors to stay informed about high-frequency data and policy changes to make informed investment decisions [20][21]. - **Future Outlook**: The overall sentiment was optimistic regarding the long-term prospects for both precious metals and tin, with expectations of continued price increases driven by supply constraints and demand from emerging technologies [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the impact of Chinese policy support and global commodity volatility, highlighting the expected GDP growth and monetary policy adjustments in China, alongside geopolitical tensions affecting commodity supply and prices [1]. Domestic Policy and Economic Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) anticipates a GDP increase exceeding 6 trillion yuan this year and has established a national-level merger and acquisition fund [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to support economic liquidity [1][7]. Global Commodity Market Dynamics - Geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, have heightened uncertainty in the commodity markets, with significant price increases in energy sectors following military actions [1][12]. - The conflict has led to supply disruptions, with Iraq cutting production by over half and concerns over energy supply intensifying due to attacks on key infrastructure [2][12]. Key Commodities Analysis Oil - Oil prices have surged to their highest levels in two and a half years due to ongoing conflicts in the Persian Gulf, which have disrupted shipping routes and led to significant supply cuts [2][12]. - The situation has been exacerbated by production cuts from major oil-producing countries, including Iraq and Qatar, and attacks on Saudi oil facilities [2][12][13]. Gold - Gold prices are expected to trend upward in the long term, driven by inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, despite short-term pressures from a strengthening US dollar [3][18]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months, reflecting a strategic move towards diversifying reserves [7][18]. Methanol - Methanol prices have increased by 5.43%, with domestic production facing challenges due to maintenance shutdowns and a slight decrease in operational capacity [4][14]. - Coastal methanol inventories remain high, with a year-on-year increase of 35.76%, indicating a robust supply situation despite recent production adjustments [4][14]. Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - The market is transitioning from a broad-based rally to a more selective approach, focusing on companies with strong earnings as financial reports begin to be released [10]. - The geopolitical climate is contributing to increased risk aversion, impacting market sentiment and leading to a cautious outlook for various sectors [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Market Performance**: Precious metal prices adjusted this week, with silver's decline significantly greater than gold's, despite a slight rebound on Friday. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver positions further declined, and silver inventories continued to fall. The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 28 tons to 1,073.32 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares decreased by 231 tons to 15,762 tons [2]. - **Impact Factors**: The recent precious metal market transactions are concentrated on expectations of the Fed's monetary policy, hedging and inflation under geopolitical situations, uncertainties in trade policies, as well as economic stagflation and financial market risks. The weakness of precious metals this week was due to the Middle East geopolitical situation pushing up oil prices, further weakening the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed and European and American countries, leading to higher US dollar and US Treasury yields, thus suppressing precious metal prices. Additionally, the liquidity problem under the general decline of risk - assets also dragged down precious metal prices. However, precious metals showed a rebound trend on Friday due to concerns about economic recession rising after oil prices reached $90, increased financial market risks, a redemption wave in private credit of giants such as BlackRock, prominent shadow banking risks, a further decline in global stock markets, a rebound in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on Friday, a decline in the US dollar index, and the return of safe - haven buying demand for precious metals. Data shows that the US February non - farm payrolls report released on Friday evening showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, the non - farm payrolls increase turned negative, and the final values of non - farm payrolls increases in December and January were both revised down, increasing the risk of stagflation in the US and the global economy [3]. - **Long - term Logic**: In the medium term, gold and silver prices will mainly benefit from the game between the Fed's policies and the political environment during the mid - term election time window. The current low approval rating of Trump indicates that he is likely to continuously pursue two goals in the first half of the year: to promote the Fed to implement loose monetary policies and to improve his approval rating before the mid - term elections at the end of the year by strengthening the US hegemonic position and obtaining external interests. The expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policies, the weakening of the central bank's independence, or the fermentation of various uncertainties such as external geopolitics, international trade, and global financial markets will continuously support the increase in investment demand for gold and silver from the perspectives of monetary policy easing and safe - haven demand, thus being beneficial to the continued rise of gold and silver prices in the first half of the year. In the longer term, the credibility of the global US - dollar - dominated credit currency system continues to decline, and core issues such as the unsustainability of the US fiscal situation and the loosening of the US dollar hegemony are becoming increasingly prominent, accelerating the global de - dollarization process. This trend promotes central banks around the world to continuously increase their gold reserves, triggers the competition for gold pricing power and the reconstruction of the global gold market system, and lays a solid foundation for the long - term rise of gold and silver [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Strategically, the report still maintains a long - term bullish view on precious metals and regards corrections as opportunities for long - term position building. The support level for London gold is at 5,000, and the strong support is around the 60 - day moving average of 4,800. The support level for London silver is at 80, and the strong support is in the 70 - 72 area [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - **Market Review**: Precious metal prices adjusted this week, with silver's decline significantly greater than gold's. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver positions further declined, and silver inventories continued to fall. The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs decreased [2]. - **Impact Factors Analysis**: The precious metal market was affected by multiple factors, including the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, trade policies, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. The rise of the US dollar and US Treasury yields due to geopolitical factors suppressed precious metal prices, but concerns about economic recession and financial risks on Friday led to a rebound in precious metal prices [3]. - **Long - term Trading Logic**: In the medium term, gold and silver prices are affected by the Fed's policies and the political environment during the mid - term election time. In the long term, the de - dollarization process and central bank gold - buying behavior support the rise of gold and silver prices [5]. - **Trading - type Strategy Recommendations** - **Trend Judgment**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals and regard corrections as opportunities for long - term position building. Provide support levels for London gold and silver [6]. Chapter 2: Market Information - **This Week's Event Concerns**: Enter the quiet period of Fed officials before the March 19 FOMC meeting. Continue to focus on the progress of the Middle East situation, the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian supreme leader election, the spread of the US private equity redemption wave, and the pressure on the credit market caused by discount selling risks [15]. - **Last Week and This Week's Data Concerns**: Provide a large amount of US and Chinese economic data, including PMI, non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, CPI, etc. [14][16] Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data - **International Precious Metal Market**: Present the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of international precious metals such as London gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, and the positions and inventories of related ETFs and CFTC [17]. - **Domestic Precious Metal Market**: Show the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic precious metals such as SHFE gold and silver, and the inventories of related exchanges [17]. - **US Financial Asset Performance**: Provide the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of US financial assets such as the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, stock indices, etc. [18]. - **Domestic Financial Market**: Present the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic financial assets such as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, stock indices, and Treasury yields [19]. Chapter 4: Macroeconomic Information - **FOMC Post - meeting Statement**: Compare and analyze the FOMC post - meeting statements in 2026/1/29 and 2025/12/11, including the assessment of the economic situation, policy goals, policy decisions, and voting situations [34]. - **Economic Forecast Table (December FOMC)**: Provide economic forecast data such as real GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, PCE inflation rate, and federal funds rate from 2025 to 2028 and in the long - run [36]. - **US CPI and Other Data**: Analyze the composition and changes of the US CPI, and present data on the US CPI and core CPI, PCE price index, non - farm payrolls, etc. [42][44] Chapter 5: Sensitive Demand and Valuation - **Sensitive Demand - ETF Investment Demand**: Show the long - term positions of gold and silver ETFs, including SPDR, SLV, and Chinese top 3 gold ETFs and Hua'an Gold ETF [54][56]. - **Valuation Anchoring - Related Assets**: Analyze the price relationships between precious metals and related assets such as the COMEX gold - silver ratio, gold and silver lease rates, gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real yields, etc. [58][60][62] - **Global Major Exchange Inventories**: Present the inventory data of precious metals in major global exchanges such as LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, and SGX [77][79][80]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The escalation of the Iran situation has led to increased oil prices, which in turn raises inflation expectations and suppresses precious metal prices. Gold prices on COMEX fell by 2.17% to $5,181.30 per ounce, while silver dropped by 10.27% to $84.70 per ounce [1] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to continue affecting oil prices, with WTI crude oil rising from $67.02 per barrel to $90.90 per barrel, a weekly increase of 35.6% [5][10] - The long-term bullish trend for gold is supported by the declining status of the US dollar, driven by both government policy preferences and global distrust in the dollar [6][28] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been under pressure due to rising inflation expectations linked to oil price increases. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 900,540.93 ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings fell by 7,419,587.30 ounces [1] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 9.02% to 61.18, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Base Metals - Copper prices have been affected by macroeconomic factors, with a decline of 3.21% to $12,869.00 per ton on the LME. The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions [8][10] - Aluminum prices increased by 9.22% to $3,431.00 per ton, driven by supply constraints and rising production costs due to higher energy prices [9][14] Small Metals - Molybdenum prices remain stable at 282,500 CNY per ton, supported by strong demand from the military sector and supply constraints [22][24] - Vanadium prices have seen an increase due to recovering demand from the steel industry and energy storage applications, with prices rising to 82,300 CNY per ton [25][26] Market Dynamics - The overall market is experiencing a tightening supply situation, particularly in copper and aluminum, due to geopolitical tensions and production disruptions in the Middle East [30][31] - The demand for precious metals is expected to remain strong in the long term, driven by ongoing inflation concerns and the potential for further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [28][30]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The escalation of the Iran situation has led to increased oil prices, which in turn has raised inflation expectations, impacting precious metal prices negatively. Gold prices on COMEX fell by 2.17% to $5,181.30 per ounce, while silver dropped by 10.27% to $84.70 per ounce [1][3] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to continue affecting oil prices, with WTI crude oil rising from $67.02 per barrel to $90.90 per barrel, marking a weekly increase of 35.6% [5][10] - The report highlights that the current macroeconomic environment is pressuring metal prices, particularly copper, which has seen a decline due to rising inflation expectations and a strong dollar [10][12] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and rising inflation expectations. The gold-silver ratio increased by 9.02% to 61.18, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 900,540.93 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings fell by 7,419,587.30 ounces, reflecting reduced investor confidence [1] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices fell by 3.21% to $12,869.00 per ton, while aluminum rose by 9.22% to $3,431.00 per ton. Zinc saw a slight increase of 0.45% to $3,323.00 per ton [8][9] - The SHFE market showed similar trends, with copper down 2.76% to 101,050.00 yuan per ton, while aluminum increased by 3.69% to 24,715.00 yuan per ton [9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of copper is under pressure due to tight global conditions, with significant production disruptions reported in major mining countries. The report indicates that Chile's copper production fell by 3% year-on-year in January [11][30] - The aluminum market is experiencing supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions affecting production in the Middle East, with potential risks of further production cuts if conflicts persist [14][18] Small Metals - Molybdenum prices remain stable due to strong demand from the military sector, with the report highlighting that geopolitical tensions are driving increased military spending and demand for strategic materials [22][24] - Vanadium prices have seen an uptick due to recovering demand from the steel industry and the growth of vanadium battery applications, with significant increases in installed capacity expected in the coming years [25][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened significantly. The recent strong performance of the US dollar has suppressed the attractiveness of non - interest - bearing assets, and the market's consensus expectation of a marginal hawkish shift in the Fed's tone has put pressure on the precious metals market. Geopolitical tensions in the US - Iran situation have increased market risk - aversion [7]. - The platinum market is in a continuous shortage, with a significant decline in above - ground inventory. Supply in South Africa is constrained by factors such as power, cost, mine aging, and insufficient capital expenditure. On the demand side, automotive catalysts are the core support, and geopolitical tensions have enhanced platinum's attractiveness as a strategic asset. The medium - term logic of palladium is weaker than that of platinum, with relatively single - structured demand and facing long - term pressure from electric vehicle penetration and platinum substitution [7]. - In the short term, there are many macro - level disturbances, and high market volatility may continue. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading within a range [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Highlights - The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened significantly. The strong US dollar and the market's expectation of a hawkish Fed have pressured the precious metals market. Geopolitical tensions in the US - Iran situation have kept market risk - aversion high [7]. - The platinum market is in shortage, and South African supply is constrained. Automotive catalysts support platinum demand, and geopolitical factors enhance its attractiveness. Palladium's medium - term logic is weaker due to single - structured demand and long - term pressure [7]. - Short - term market volatility may continue, and it is recommended to trade within a range with a light position [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The precious metals market declined, and platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened significantly. As of March 6, 2026, the main palladium 2606 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 421.50 yuan/gram, down 9.33% for the week; the main platinum 2606 contract was at 560.50 yuan/gram, down 10.14% for the week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of February 24, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 19,605 contracts, a 5.77% week - on - week increase; the net long position of NYMEX palladium was - 1,758 contracts, a 7.59% week - on - week decrease [13][15]. - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts weakened this week. As of March 5, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was - 23.60 US dollars/ounce, and the NYMEX palladium basis was 7.50 US dollars/ounce, both weakening week - on - week [16][20]. - The basis of the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange strengthened, while that of the main palladium contract weakened. As of March 5, 2026, the platinum main contract basis was - 9.70 yuan/gram, strengthening week - on - week; the palladium main contract basis was - 23 yuan/gram, weakening week - on - week [21][23]. - NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories both increased. As of March 5, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 583,451.75 ounces, a 0.99% week - on - week increase; NYMEX palladium inventory was 205,097.54 ounces, a 10.11% week - on - week increase [24][28]. - Platinum and gold prices showed strong synchronicity, and the gold - to - platinum ratio remained basically unchanged this week [29]. 3. Industrial Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [35]. - The demand for platinum and palladium in automotive exhaust catalysts has been declining year by year due to the significant rise in the share of the new energy vehicle market. The total global demand for platinum and palladium has shown a mild slowdown [41][47]. - The supply patterns of platinum and palladium have diverged. Geopolitical tensions have tightened platinum supply [52]. - The price difference between the domestic and foreign markets of platinum and palladium main contracts widened slightly this week [56]. 4. Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, geopolitical risks push up the demand for gold as a traditional safe - haven asset, but the revised downward expectation of Fed rate cuts due to rising inflation expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and profit - taking by funds suppress the performance of precious metals. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged considering multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation demand, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases. Silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with greater volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: For沪金2606, the closing price was 1155.06, down 1.14 (-0.10%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 66063 and an open interest of 108084. For沪金2604, the closing price was 1152.00, down 1.06 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 233912 and an open interest of 125041. For沪银2606, the closing price was 21369, down 209 (-0.97%), with a trading volume of 412744 and an open interest of 173457. For沪银2604, the closing price was 21639, down 215 (-0.98%), with a trading volume of 412856 and an open interest of 143059 [2]. - **Spot Premium**: The spot premium of沪金2606 was -6.5, and that of沪金2604 was -3.44. The spot premium of沪银2606 was -301, and that of沪银2604 was -571 [2]. Spot Market - **Price and Change**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1148.56, down 4.39 (-0.38%) from the previous day. The closing price of London gold was 5084.63, down 35.91 (-0.70%). The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 21068, down 493 (-2.29%). The closing price of London silver was 82.28, down 1.26 (-1.50%) [2]. - **Ratio**: The current value of沪金2606 - 沪金2604 was 3.06, and the previous value was 3.14. The current value of沪银2606 - 沪银2604 was -270.00, and the previous value was -276.00. The current value of the gold/silver ratio (spot) was 54.52, and the previous value was 53.47. The current value of the Shanghai gold/London gold ratio was 1.02, and the previous value was 1.02. The current value of the Shanghai silver/London silver ratio was 1.15, and the previous value was 1.15 [2]. Inventory - **Change**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 105,033 kg. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver decreased by 22102 kg to 272,721 kg. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 59808 ounces to 33,100,294 ounces. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 877946 ounces to 351,341,925 ounces [2]. Related Derivatives - **Value and Change**: The current value of the US dollar index was 99.04, up 0.24 from the previous day. The S&P 500 index was 6,830.71, down 38.79. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.13%, up 0.04%. The Brent crude oil price was 84.33, up 1.75. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9003, down 0.0117. The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 5 tons to 1,076 tons. The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 138 tons to 15,810 tons. The CFTC speculator net long position in gold decreased by 738 to 159,177, and in silver decreased by 1743 to 22,260 [2]. Macro Information - **Oil Market**: The US has issued a 30 - day temporary exemption to allow the sale of Russian oil currently at sea to India to ease pressure on the global oil market. US President Trump said he would take further measures to relieve pressure on the oil market [3]. - **Geopolitical**: Trump mentioned that after the Iran conflict subsides, the US will turn its attention to Cuba. He also said he needs to be involved in choosing Iran's next leader and does not accept the son of the assassinated supreme leader as the successor [3]. - **Policy**: The CME will lower the initial margin ratio of COMEX100 gold futures from 9% to 7% and that of COMEX5000 silver futures from 18% to 14%, effective from the close on March 6, 2026 [3]. - **Monetary Policy**: European Central Bank President Lagarde said that monetary policy will be decided on a meeting - by - meeting basis according to data without a preset stance [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran initially drove up precious metal prices due to increased risk - aversion, but the situation reversed quickly. The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran led to energy transportation disruptions, inflation pressure, and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts, causing a sharp correction in precious metal prices [1]. - In the new market paradigm, the role of traditional safe - haven assets has weakened during the Iran conflict. Due to factors such as de - globalization, de - dollarization, and AI algorithm trading, the flow of funds has changed, and the original driving logic has reversed. The prices of US Treasuries and precious metals are under pressure due to expectations of tight monetary policy [2][4]. - The market expects the US dollar cycle to rebound and the current gold bull market to peak, but gold still has value in asset allocation under the "de - dollarization" trend. The future performance of precious metals depends on the Middle East situation, US inflation data, and the Fed's stance [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - After the US - Iran conflict, precious metal prices first rose due to risk - aversion but then sharply corrected. On Wednesday morning, the main contracts of Shanghai silver and platinum futures fell by more than 5%, erasing the gains since late February, and the main contract of Shanghai gold fell by more than 3% before rebounding in the afternoon [1]. Driving Analysis - In the past, geopolitical conflicts would drive funds to safe - haven assets, but in this US - Iran conflict, traditional safe - haven assets did not perform as expected. In the new market paradigm, funds first flow to the currencies of net oil - exporting countries, and the currencies of net oil - importing countries are under pressure [2]. - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran may lead to a global oil supply disruption and an energy crisis, increasing the possibility of the Fed delaying rate cuts or even raising rates again. Market concerns about a new Fed chairman's possible tendency to shrink the balance sheet also intensify liquidity tightness, suppressing the prices of US Treasuries and precious metals [2][4]. Impact on Precious Metals - The market expects the US dollar cycle to rebound and the gold bull market to peak, but gold shows some resilience due to demand from central bank purchases and ETF investments. The future performance of precious metals depends on the Middle East situation and the Fed's stance on inflation [5]. - For gold, short - term support at the 20 - day moving average should be monitored, and long positions can consider taking profits at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options for protection. For silver, with a continuous decline in exchange inventories and tight supply, but high price volatility, it may test the 60 - day moving average again, and short - selling at high prices above $95 or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. For platinum and palladium, which follow the fluctuations of gold and silver and have limited short - term upward momentum, selling out - of - the - money call options at high prices can be considered [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold is typically bought during times of global risk, but it often experiences short-term declines when crises such as wars or financial shocks actually occur. The recent escalation of the situation in Iran has led to a stronger dollar, overshadowing gold's traditional role as a safe haven [2][7]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Following the U.S. and Israel's attacks on Iran, gold prices initially rose to approximately $5,400 per ounce on March 2, but fell to $4,995 on March 3, breaking the psychological barrier of $5,000. By March 4, the price was $5,100, reflecting a 3% decline from before the conflict began [4]. - The decline in gold prices has also affected silver, with the London silver spot price dropping to $77 on March 3, a 13% decrease from the previous day [5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Market analysts suggest that speculative funds that bought gold in anticipation of military action began to sell off their positions to realize profits once the attacks were confirmed [5]. - Investors often sell gold during actual crises to cover losses in other assets, a pattern observed during past crises such as the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse and the COVID-19 pandemic [7]. Group 3: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - Since the escalation of the Iran situation, there has been an increase in the sell-off of nearly all major financial assets, except for resources like oil. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.1%, up from 3.9% the previous week, indicating a decline in bond prices [7]. - European government bond yields have also increased, and there is ongoing uncertainty in the energy and risk asset markets until the situation in Iran stabilizes [8]. Group 4: Currency Dynamics - Investors are withdrawing funds from precious metals, stocks, and bonds, favoring cash assets, particularly the dollar, which is seen as a safe haven during times of uncertainty [9]. - The dollar has appreciated against nearly all major currencies, with a 1.3% increase in the nominal effective exchange rate as of March 4, making it the strongest among 25 major currencies [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook for Gold - The future of gold largely depends on the developments in the Iran situation. Analysts note that gold typically has an inverse relationship with interest rates and the dollar, suggesting short-term selling risks. However, if geopolitical tensions persist, gold may again be viewed as a safe haven asset [12].