据证券时报，近期，多家机构再次上调了黄金目标价格，高盛将2025年底金价预测从此前的3100美元上 调到了3300美元。高盛表示，看涨黄金价格的主要原因在于央行对黄金的需求超出预期，且资金稳健流 入黄金ETF。 高盛预计亚洲大型央行可能在未来3~6年继续快速购金，中国等国的目标黄金储备比例或从目前8%提高 至20%~30%。此外，花旗、瑞银集团、法国巴黎银行等海外机构同样上调了黄金价格预期。 金信期货研报认为，在其稀缺特性、全球债务增长以及货币超发、美元信用下滑、央行购金需求持续的 大背景下，金价长期向上的驱动并不改变；而现在或者说此后一段时间全球仍将处于低利率时代，同时 联储进入新一轮降息周期，ETF资金流入成为中期强有力推手。维持2025年年报金价中枢将继续上扬的 观点，并上调目标区域至3340~3475美元/盎司。 贵金属板块逆市领涨，西部黄金涨超7%，赤峰黄金、山金国际、四川黄金等纷纷上涨。 3月31日，国际现货黄金价格再次刷新历史新高，突破3100美元/盎司。 | 伦敦金现 | | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3105.645 | | | + ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that under the backdrop of de-globalization and trade barriers, global central bank gold purchases are expected to continue growing, driven by fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, economic data, and Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, leading to sustained increases in gold prices [1][2] - Gold investment demand is significantly increasing, with total global demand projected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1% year-on-year increase, marking the highest level since 2010. Investment demand alone is expected to rise by 25% to 1,180 tons [1] - The net gold purchases by global central banks are projected to be 1,045 tons in 2024, marking the third consecutive year exceeding 1,000 tons, indicating a growing influence on gold pricing and a potential weakening of the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [2] Group 2 - The Chinese central bank's gold holdings represent only 6.58% of its foreign exchange reserves, indicating significant room for growth. If the gold proportion were to match Spain's level of 21.9%, it would imply a theoretical increase of 6,265.6 tons of gold; if it matched Egypt's level of 23.7%, the increase could be 7,166.9 tons [3] - Monthly net gold purchases by global central banks have remained stable from 2022 to 2024, with monthly purchases typically ranging from 50 to 100 tons. A significant increase in monthly purchases could lead to a near 5% rise in gold prices, although there may be a 1-2 month lag in the price response [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant increase in international gold prices, which have returned to around $2900 per ounce, while also noting a recent sharp decline from near $3000 per ounce. The volatility is attributed to various economic and political factors, including U.S. tariff policies and central bank demand for gold [1][10][21]. Price Movements - As of March 4, 2023, the London gold spot price was reported at $2919.15 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 11.24% [2]. - The COMEX gold futures price was at $2928.60 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 10.96% [2]. - Domestic gold prices in China have also seen fluctuations, with brands like Chow Tai Fook reporting prices above 880 yuan per gram, marking a daily increase of 7 yuan per gram [3]. Market Reactions - The article notes a significant drop in gold prices, with a decrease of 20 yuan per gram over three days, leading to a decline in consumer purchasing activity [4][6]. - Some gold retailers reported zero sales for several consecutive days, indicating a shift in consumer sentiment due to price volatility [8][9]. Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in gold purchases by central banks, driven by geopolitical tensions and a desire to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [18][21]. - The article suggests that the current gold bull market, which has lasted over two years, is primarily driven by central bank purchases rather than private investment [18][20]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a strong possibility of gold prices breaking the $3000 per ounce mark within the year, supported by ongoing central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainties [22][23]. - The potential for increased investment demand, particularly from private investors, is seen as a key factor that could further drive gold prices upward [21][22].