2025 年 5 月 12 日 股指期货周报 正信期货研究院 股指期货周报 品种研究报告 风偏改善、指数上行，关注 4 月经济检验 市场回顾：海外英美达成贸易协定、权益风偏改善，国内降准降息落 地、政策预期支撑，随着利空因素逐渐落地、风险扰动边际减弱，节 后指数震荡上行，板块全线收涨。截至5月9日当周，沪深300跌0.36%、 上证 50 跌 0.84%、中证 500 涨 0.46%，中证 1000 涨 0.50%；IF 跌 0.55%、 IH 跌 1.01%、IC 涨 0.35%，IM 涨 0.59%。Shibor 隔夜利率下行 26 个 基点，DR007 下行 25.77 个基点，银行间市场利率边际下行。 宏观基本面：4 月政治局会议强调要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，外需扰动 背景下、内需引擎作用加强，宏观政策调控预期进一步加强，5 月劳 动节后降准降息落地，虽然一季度经济在逆周期调节的作用下超预期 修复，但二季度经济存在较大的回落压力，当前通缩压力仍然明显， 后续需要进一步关注宏观政策的提振作用和经济修复的内生动力。 观点策略：国内方面，4 月指数调 ...

晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 12 日 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪支撑 关注消费和库存验证 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏强震荡，运行重心小幅上移。上周会议结束后首批发 ...

审核：孙伟涛 交易咨询号：Z0014688 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期现市场 4 供应端 6 需求端 7 库存端 5 中间品 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货镍周报 贸易争端反复 期价震荡反弹 20250512 作者：姜世东 交易咨询号：Z0020059 从业资格号：F03126164 0769-22110802 周度观点及策略 周度观点 u 宏观：据海关统计，2025年前4个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值14.14万亿元人民币，同比（下同）增长2.4%。其中，出口8.39万亿元，增长 7.5%；进口5.75万亿元，下降4.2%。央行宣布推出十项政策措施，其中包括全面降准0.5个百分点，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，降低结构性 货币政策工具利率和公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，设立5000亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等。 u 供应：镍矿方面，2025年RKAB审批额度为冶炼厂提供了充足的原料保障，但印尼镍矿RKAB审批额度能否如期放量仍存不确定性，政策扰动风 险仍在；4月份中国镍铁小幅减少；印尼镍铁保持高位回落；硫酸镍方面，硫酸镍企业开工率小幅增加，3月份产量环比小幅增加， ...

2025 年 5 月 12 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-05-12 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 中美经贸高层会谈 5 月 10 日至 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行。此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性， 达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于 5 月 12 日发布会谈达成的联合声明。 5 月 13 日 00:00，美国农业部（USDA）将公布 USDA 月度供需报告。 5 月 13 日 20:30，美国劳工部将公布美国 4 月 CPI。 农产品供需形势分析月报 5 月 15 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 4 月金融统计数据报告、4 月社会融资规模增量统计 ...

国家统计局5月10日公布的数据显示，4月，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降0.1%。 工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，同比下降2.7%。4月CPI环比由降转涨，同比降幅与上 月相同，核心CPI涨幅稳定，PPI环比降幅与上月相同，部分工业行业价格同比继续呈现稳中向好走 势。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读4月份CPI和PPI数据时表示，虽然国际输入性因素对部分行业 价格产生了一定的下拉影响，但我国经济基础稳、韧性强，各项宏观政策协同发力，高质量发展扎实推 进，部分领域价格呈现积极变化。 对此，刘晓艺认为，在全球关税政策纷争影响下，外需冲击开始显现，上游的价格压力进一步传导至中 游的原材料价格。 "4月，生产者购进价格指数同比下跌2.7%，较上月跌幅扩大0.3个百分点，环比下降0.6%，较上月跌幅 扩大0.4个百分点。从分项指标来看，各分项指标环比跌多涨少，仅有色金属材料类价格环比出现上 涨。"刘晓艺表示，具体来看，受美国"对等关税"政策影响，4月国内煤炭开采和黑色金属矿采选业价格 环比延续下跌，宏观情绪扰动下原油价格回落致油气开采业价格涨幅收窄，有色金属矿采选业价格环 ...

Core Points - The central government emphasizes the importance of ensuring the "three guarantees" (basic livelihood, wages, and operations) as fundamental fiscal responsibilities, which directly relate to the people's interests [1][2] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to safeguard the "three guarantees" amidst external uncertainties and internal challenges [2][4] Fiscal Measures - The central government has allocated 10.34 trillion yuan for local transfer payments this year, representing an 8.4% increase, with a focus on enhancing general transfer payments to boost local fiscal capacity [3] - Local governments are encouraged to optimize spending structures, prioritize "three guarantees" expenditures, and adopt a "tight budget" approach to free up more financial resources for these guarantees [3] Long-term Strategy - Establishing a robust and long-term system for managing the "three guarantees" is crucial, including a clear responsibility framework that involves county-level management supported by city and provincial levels [3] - Continuous reform of the fiscal and tax systems is necessary to expand local tax sources and enhance local fiscal autonomy, which will help stabilize the "three guarantees" [3] Monitoring and Employment - There is a need for dynamic monitoring of the "three guarantees" situation to promptly address risks and ensure effective budget execution [4] - Employment is a critical aspect of maintaining the "three guarantees," with policies aimed at job stability and quality being prioritized [4]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while it decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in market demand supported by domestic demand expansion policies [1] - The decline in international prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, and copper has exerted downward pressure on domestic prices, contributing to the year-on-year decrease in CPI. However, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5%, maintaining stability [1] - Some industrial sectors, such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products, showed a narrowing decline in prices year-on-year, while industries like smart manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing experienced price increases [1] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic policies signal a sustained effort to support economic stability, with measures aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development. New policies, including fiscal measures to boost consumption and infrastructure investment, are expected to be introduced soon [2] - The strong demand for holiday tourism is anticipated to further release consumer potential, leading to price increases in related services [2] - In the medium to long term, the ongoing structural transformation and industrial upgrading in the economy are expected to lead to a more balanced supply-demand relationship, with a smoother economic cycle and a moderately loose monetary environment [2]

表述出现明显变化 对于2025年一季度货币政策成效，《报告》指出，一季度国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.4%，社会 信心持续提振，高质量发展扎实推进，国民经济实现良好开局。 货币政策逆周期调节效果较为明显。具体到数据上，3月末社会融资规模存量、广义货币M2同比分别增 长8.4%和7%，人民币贷款余额265.4万亿元；3月新发放企业贷款和个人住房贷款利率同比分别下降约 50个和60个基点；3月末人民币对美元汇率中间价为7.1782元，与上年末基本持平。 北京商报记者进一步对比发现，相较于2024年四季度货币政策执行报告，本次《报告》在下一阶段货币 政策执行重点内容方面的表述出现明显变化。例如，对于下阶段货币政策走势，围绕政策实施的力度和 节奏，《报告》提到"灵活把握"，上一季度则表述为"择机调整优化"。 对于市场利率调控、畅通货币政策传导机制方面，《报告》再次强调"进一步完善利率调控框架，持续 强化利率政策的执行和监督，降低银行负债成本，推动社会综合融资成本下降"，上一季度表述则为"更 好把握存量与增量的关系，注重盘活存量金融资源，提高资金使用效率"。 5月9日，央行官网发布2025年一季度中国货币政策执行报 ...

5月10日，国家统计局公布数据显示，4月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月下降0.4%转为上涨0.1%，同比下降0.1%，降幅与上月相同。核心CPI环 比由平转涨，上涨0.2%；同比上涨0.5%，涨幅保持稳定。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降2.7%，降幅比上月扩 大0.2个百分点。 物价连接着宏观经济和千家万户，是反映供求状况的"晴雨表"、引导资源流向的"风向标"、度量民生冷暖的"温度计"。 总体上看，4月份国内物价数据仍在低位运行，国际输入性因素对部分行业价格产生一定下拉影响，但更能反映供求关系的核心CPI涨幅保持稳定，体现了 我国经济的内在韧性。此外，在各项宏观政策协同发力下，国内部分领域价格呈现出积极的变化。 CPI环比由降转涨，同比略有下降，核心CPI涨幅稳定 从环比看，4月份CPI由降转涨，涨幅高于季节性水平0.2个百分点，主要是食品、出行服务回升带动。食品价格环比上涨0.2%，高于季节性水平1.4个百分 点。受需求回暖及假日因素共同影响，出行服务价格回升明显。因国际金价变动，国内金饰品价格上涨10.1%，影响CPI环比上涨约0.06个百分点。 从同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - Macro policies are expected to support marginal improvements in steel demand, with the government implementing measures such as interest rate cuts and increased lending for technological innovation [3]. - The report highlights a decrease in steel prices and profits, with specific price drops noted for various steel products as of May 9, 2025 [1][9]. - Steel production has decreased, with total output for five major steel products at 8.74 million tons, a reduction of 95,200 tons week-on-week [2]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of May 9, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,150 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][10]. - Other steel products also saw price declines, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets [1][10]. Profitability - The report indicates a decline in steel profits, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins decreasing by 13 CNY/ton, 2 CNY/ton, and 44 CNY/ton respectively [1][2]. Production and Inventory - Total production of five major steel products decreased to 8.74 million tons, with rebar production specifically down to 2.2353 million tons [2]. - Total social inventory of these steel products increased by 94,200 tons to 1,031.93 million tons [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the general steel sector such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, as well as special steel companies like CITIC Special Steel and Yongjin Co., Ltd. [3]. - It also recommends monitoring high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3].