Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a weekly hot - spot preview for the week of December 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Weekly Key Focus - On December 31 at 03:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting [2][10] - On December 31 at 09:30, China's official December manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI and composite PMI will be announced [2][11] - On December 31 at 09:45, Markit will release China's December SPGI manufacturing PMI [2][12] - On December 31 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 22 [2][13] - US President Trump may appoint a new Fed Chairman in the first week of January 2026 [2][15] Group 3: Daily Hot - spot Details December 29 - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will announce the US seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index for November at 23:00, with an expected monthly rate of 1% (previous 1.9%) [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 19 at 00:00, expecting a decline of 2.432 million barrels (previous decline of 1.274 million barrels). A larger decline will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [4] December 30 - The US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will announce the US FHFA house price index for October at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0.1% (previous 0) [5] - Standard & Poor's will announce the US S&P/CS20 - city house price index for October at 22:00. The expected unadjusted annual rate is 1.1% (previous 1.4%), and the expected seasonally - adjusted monthly rate is 0.1% (previous 0.1%) [8] - The Chicago branch of the Institute for Supply Management will announce the US December Chicago PMI at 22:45, with an expected value of 39.5 (previous 36.3). A rise will help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices rise but suppress gold and silver futures prices [9] December 31 - The Fed will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting at 03:00, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [10] - China's official December manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.2 (previous 49.2), and non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7 (previous 49.5) [11] - Markit will release China's December SPGI manufacturing PMI at 09:45, with an expected value of 49.8 (previous 49.9). A slight decrease will slightly suppress industrial product futures and stock index futures but slightly help treasury bond futures [12] - The US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 22 at 21:30, with an expected value of 220,000 (previous 214,000). A slight increase will slightly help non - precious industrial product futures prices rise but help gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures prices rise [13] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 26 at 23:30. A decline will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [14] January 1 - Trump may appoint a new Fed Chairman. If the appointee is "obedient" like Hassett, it will increase concerns about the Fed's monetary policy independence, with an expected 2 - time rate cut in 2026, helping precious metals and non - ferrous metals futures rise [15][16] January 2 - S&P Global will announce the final value of the US December SPGI manufacturing PMI at 22:45, with an expected value of 51.8 (same as the initial value in December and 52.2 in November's final value) [17] January 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late December 2025, covering 9 categories and 50 products [18]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that China's economy is not merely enduring but is undergoing a significant upgrade, characterized by a clear direction and stability [6] Group 1: Economic Structure and Growth - China's economy, valued at 140 trillion yuan, is likened to a giant ship successfully shifting gears rather than merely docking [5] - The economy has added approximately 40 trillion yuan over five years, equivalent to creating a new world-class economy, with a focus on digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green industries as primary growth drivers [5] Group 2: Policy Stability - The macroeconomic policy is described as "proactive" rather than unconventional, with precise fiscal measures and a monetary policy that prioritizes price stability and expectations [5] - The governance capability is highlighted as being able to maintain a firm grip on the economic direction, aiming for stable growth, stable prices, and stable confidence [5] Group 3: External Trade and Open Economy - In the face of trade tensions, China is taking a rational approach to countermeasures while expanding its openness, maintaining its position as the world's largest trading nation [5] - The strategy combines internal circulation as a foundation with high-level openness as an accelerator, using certainty to counteract uncertainty [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Artificial intelligence is viewed not as a bubble but as a filter, with China's advantages lying in its vast scenarios, massive data, and stable power supply [5] - The commitment to open-source and inclusive technology aims to ensure that advancements are not only profitable but also beneficial to society [5]

面对国内外形势深刻复杂变化，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现出强大韧性和活力。当前经济 发展态势如何？未来宏观政策应如何发力？怎样更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争？本期"对话经 济学家"特邀请财政部原副部长朱光耀结合中央经济工作会议精神进行深度解析。 140万亿经济总量背后的含金量 记者："十四五"时期，我国经济发展连续迈上新台阶，今年有望达到140万亿元左右。您怎么解读这个 成绩？ 朱光耀："十四五"时期是我国全面建成小康社会、实现第一个百年奋斗目标之后，乘势而上开启全面建 设社会主义现代化国家新征程、向第二个百年奋斗目标进军的第一个五年。面对复杂外部环境和国内转 型压力，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，我国经济发展取得突破性进展。2020年至2025 年，经济总量从100万亿元人民币跃升至140万亿元人民币，这一增长速度在全球主要经济体中名列前 茅。五年间40万亿元人民币的增量，折合超5万亿美元，相当于创造了一个全球第三大经济体的规模。 从世界意义的角度来看，"十四五"时期，我国经济总量占世界经济的比重为17%左右，对世界经济增长 年均贡献率超30%。国际货币基金组织将2025年中国经济增速 ...

Economic Growth and Resilience - China's economy is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan, marking a significant achievement during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a growth rate among the highest globally [1][2] - The economic growth from 2020 to 2025 represents an increase of 40 trillion yuan, equivalent to over 5 trillion USD, comparable to creating the world's third-largest economy [1] Contribution to Global Economy - China's economy accounts for about 17% of the global economy and contributes over 30% to global economic growth annually [2] - The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 5%, indicating strong economic performance [2] Key Support Factors - The two major breakthroughs supporting the 140 trillion yuan economy are the rapid development of the digital economy and artificial intelligence, and the robust growth of the green economy [2][3] - China's digital economy has empowered traditional industries, while advancements in artificial intelligence and quantum information have positioned the country among the global leaders in these fields [2] Green Economy Development - From 2012 to 2024, China's energy consumption grew at an average rate of 3.4%, supporting an average economic growth of 6.1%, with a carbon emission intensity reduction of over 35% [3] - China leads globally in renewable energy capacity, with solar panel production at the top for over a decade and a significant share of lithium battery production [3] Future Economic Outlook - The expected actual growth rate for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is between 4.5% and 5%, with contributions from capital and labor inputs, as well as total factor productivity [4] - The nominal growth rate could reach 7% if actual growth of 5% is combined with a 2% inflation rate [4] Macroeconomic Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies, including a fiscal deficit rate set at around 4% for 2025 and a local government special debt limit of 4.4 trillion yuan [5][6] - The focus is on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with monetary policy aimed at addressing the current negative producer price index [6] International Trade and Relations - Despite external challenges, China's foreign trade remains resilient, maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trader for eight consecutive years, with a projected trade volume of 6.16 trillion USD in 2024 [8] - The U.S. tariff policies pose risks to global trade, and China aims to navigate these challenges while promoting high-quality development and enhancing domestic and international economic circulation [7][8] Foreign Investment Environment - China is committed to creating a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized business environment to attract foreign investment, with ongoing efforts to streamline regulations and enhance protections for foreign enterprises [9] - The focus is on ensuring that foreign companies can operate smoothly in open sectors, with initiatives to improve infrastructure and support services [9] Artificial Intelligence Sector - China is recognized for its potential in the artificial intelligence sector, with significant investment interest from international investors, particularly from Wall Street [11] - The country aims to leverage its advantages in application scenarios, data resources, and infrastructure to foster a competitive AI industry [13]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively engaging with private enterprises through a series of meetings to gather feedback and suggestions for economic work in the coming year [1][2][3]. Group 1: Frequency and Scope of Meetings - Since July 2023, the NDRC has held 22 regular meetings with private enterprises, indicating a strong commitment to addressing their concerns [2]. - The meetings cover a wide range of enterprises across different regions and sizes, including industry leaders and small businesses, as well as various sectors such as renewable energy and artificial intelligence [4]. Group 2: Problem-Solving Approach - The meetings are designed to genuinely address issues faced by enterprises, with a commitment to ensure that every concern is acknowledged and addressed [5]. - Specific issues raised by companies have been resolved, such as regulatory changes for infant formula products and logistical challenges faced by delivery services [6]. Group 3: Building Confidence - Confidence is a recurring theme in the discussions, with NDRC officials encouraging enterprises to remain optimistic about their development prospects and to leverage opportunities for growth [8]. - The establishment of a comprehensive service platform for the development of the private economy and a closed-loop mechanism for problem collection and resolution demonstrates the government's support for private enterprises [9].

（来源：中国经济导报） "把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"……这一新提法，既延续了逆周期调节 的核心要义，又体现了货币政策在稳增长与防风险之间寻求更高效动态平衡的政策智慧。 显然，作为政策工具，无论是财政支出的方向与力度，还是货币信贷的总量与结构，都需根据经济运行 的即时状况、突出矛盾和经营主体反馈进行灵活调整和优化。其目标是熨平经济周期波动，缓解短期冲 击，保障民生底线，并引导资源流向国家战略重点领域和薄弱环节。政策驱动的是经济运行的"当下节 奏"与"微观活力"。 转自：中国经济导报 本报评论员 | 王春华 既要政策给力，也要改革发力。中央经济工作会议明确提出，"必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举"。这 是"十四五"应对复杂形势、推动稳中求进的实践总结，也是"十五五"实现高质量发展、增强经济内生动 力的科学指引。 会议强调，"增强改革与政策的协同效应，推动经济运行和市场预期持续向好"。这一协同体系的内在逻 辑在于：宏观政策逆周期调节，实现"短期稳增长"，为改革赢得时间窗口和稳定的经济社会环境；改革 举措跨周期布局，破除体制机制障碍，实现"长期增活力"，为宏观政策传导畅通渠道、提升效能。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", projecting a stable economic outlook for 2024 with a GDP growth of 5% and a focus on high-quality development amidst complex external challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Projections - The GDP is expected to reach 134.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth [1] - Employment and prices are anticipated to remain stable, with international payments balanced and foreign trade reaching a historical high [1] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to exceed 3.2 trillion USD [1] Group 2: Financial System Stability - The financial system will enhance support for the real economy, including two reductions in the reserve requirement ratio by a total of 1 percentage point and a 0.3 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates [2] - Policies will be implemented to mitigate debt risks for financing platforms, including a monitoring system for debt statistics [2] - The real estate market will receive support through lowered mortgage down payment ratios and interest rates, alongside the establishment of a housing rental financial policy framework [2] Group 3: Future Financial Strategies - The financial system will focus on maintaining liquidity and aligning social financing scale with economic growth and price expectations [3] - Emphasis will be placed on developing technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance to support national strategies [3] - A comprehensive macro-prudential management system will be established to monitor and assess systemic financial risks [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the complex and profound changes in the development environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting a coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks [1] - The report asserts that China's economic foundation remains stable, with numerous advantages, strong resilience, and significant potential, indicating that the long-term positive support conditions and trends have not changed [1] - The financial system will implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress and subsequent plenary sessions, focusing on both domestic and international situations, and adhering to the new development philosophy [1] Group 2 - The PBOC aims to maintain the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate while preventing excessive fluctuations, ensuring basic stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [2] - The report outlines the development of five key areas in finance: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, to support major national strategies and address weak links in economic and social development [2] - A comprehensive macro-prudential management system will be established to enhance monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, with a focus on preventing and resolving risks in key areas [2]

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：下游开工深入淡季 宏观支撑价格高位 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 26 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 ...

Policy Insights - The GDP target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies not being strong stimulus but rather supportive measures[5][9]. - Monetary policy is projected to see a 10 basis point rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut, consistent with 2025[5][24]. - The fiscal deficit rate is anticipated to stay at 4%, with total debt slightly increasing, maintaining fiscal efforts similar to 2025[5][24]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to be stable, but structural differentiation may occur, with real housing demand declining due to slowed urbanization[5][36]. - Real estate sales are projected to decrease by 10% in 2026, continuing the downward trend from 2025[5][37]. - Manufacturing investment is likely to remain low, with a growth rate of 3-4% anticipated due to ongoing capacity surplus issues[5][47]. Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise slightly to around 0.5% in 2026, driven by reduced drag from pork and energy prices[5][79]. - Core CPI is projected to maintain resilience, supporting overall CPI growth, with a historical average around 0.8%[5][88]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull market, driven by technology and cyclical sectors, with institutional funds poised to enter the market[5][5]. - The total balance of institutional funds is over 100 trillion yuan, with an estimated 1.5-5 trillion yuan ready to enter the equity market[5][5]. Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential underperformance in infrastructure investment[5][5].