晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：资金情绪有所降温 库存小幅积累 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价高位震荡。宏观上海外关税相继确认且低于早前，不确 定风险降低，有利于海外需求恢复；国内"反内卷"相关政策带动工业金 属上涨，长期"促销费、稳增长"的基调不变，但资金情绪有所降温，价 格高位反复。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（ ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4436 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or -0.25% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4497 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton or +0.16% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month-on-month). The news of the upcoming work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries boosted the market, but the impact on EG was limited as the proportion of backward production capacity over 20 years old was only 6.6%, and most were already shut down or operating at low loads. The cost of coal increased due to the production inspection notice [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -45 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 93 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, MEG inventory at the East China main port was 53.3 tons (down 2.0 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.4 tons (up 1.3 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 5.2 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 15.7 tons, and the visible inventory is expected to rise moderately early next week [2]. - For the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, on the supply side, the domestic synthetic gas - made glycol load has returned to a high level, with more unplanned load reductions in non - coal production, and limited room for further improvement. Overseas supply recovery was less than expected due to the poor restart of Saudi Arabian plants. On the demand side, terminal inventory was high and the willingness to stock up was low during the off - season, with weak demand expectations. However, the actual decline in demand may be limited, and the supply - demand structure in July was still favorable, but the pressure of foreign vessel arrivals would increase moderately in late July [2]. - In terms of strategy, the short - term performance is strong under the concentrated release of macro - policies, and the medium - term view is neutral. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4436 yuan/ton, the EG spot price in the East China market was 4497 yuan/ton, and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -45 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was 93 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data or analysis of international spreads is provided in the summary part of the report. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - There is no detailed analysis of downstream sales, production, and operating rates in the summary part of the report. Inventory Data - MEG inventory at the East China main port was 53.3 tons (CCF data, down 2.0 tons month - on - month) and 49.4 tons (Longzhong data, up 1.3 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival last week was 5.2 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15.7 tons [2].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-24 铁矿：宏观预期提振，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格震荡运行。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于812.0元/吨，跌幅0.61%。 现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪偏冷清，钢厂采购 多以刚需为主。昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交86.4万吨，环比下跌29.93%；远期现货：远期现货累计成交123.0万吨 （10笔），环比上涨33.70%(其中矿山成交量为106万吨)。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，目前市场情绪积极向好，建材目前正处于消费淡季，库存微增，产量小幅下滑，去库表 现略好于季节性预期。板材表现出较强消费韧性，维持供需两旺格局。近期破除"内卷式"竞争等政策利好频出， 刺激市场整体向好。后续关注政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 市场情绪放缓，钢价震荡偏强 钢材：市场情绪放缓，钢价震荡偏强 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3274元/吨，热卷主力合约收于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "Oscillating", some as "Oscillating Strongly". For example, steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are in the "Oscillating" category, and the specific ratings are based on the expected price fluctuations within the next 2 - 12 weeks [9][13][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, there are continuous macro - level positive factors. The continuous rally in the market has spurred mid - stream players such as those in the futures - cash business to build positions, creating a positive feedback loop in the industry chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, which was in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the pig iron output of steel enterprises rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. With frequent positive news and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - The news of coal mine over - production inspections was confirmed to be basically true. The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coal industry has deepened. Although some coal mines are resuming production, domestic coal supply is still affected. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke enterprises' profits are still around the break - even point. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke inventories of coke enterprises are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures will oscillate strongly [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - With coke entering the price increase cycle, the cost support for manganese silicon is strengthened. The market sentiment is warm, port miners are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of manganese silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly. On the demand side, steel mills have good profits, and the downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3][7]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price was weak. In the future, the production level of silicon iron is expected to increase, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the sector [7]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, and the deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Although the sales volume was good at the beginning of the week due to downstream restocking, its sustainability is uncertain. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the rhythm and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the view of oscillation is maintained [7]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, but it still faces the problem of oversupply after the positive feedback. Currently, the upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The expectation of stable growth in key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of a hydropower project has also brought positive expectations. After the continuous rise in the market, the macro - sentiment has cooled, and the spot price increase has slowed. In the off - season, the fundamental contradictions of steel are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials and lingering macro - sentiment, the futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The small - sample pig iron output remained stable, and the ore price slightly decreased. The spot market quotation decreased, and port transactions dropped significantly. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the small - sample pig iron output of steel enterprises remained stable at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but further upward movement requires new driving factors [9]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel has been low, and the spot price has slightly increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have deteriorated marginally, but the contradictions are not prominent due to low inventories. On the supply side, the arrival volume this week decreased, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills slightly decreased, but the profits of electric furnaces have improved, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has increased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel has slightly increased. The price of scrap steel is expected to follow the sector [10]. Coke - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the upward trend of the futures price has converged. The supply of coke has tightened, while the demand is strong, and the inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. The supply - demand structure is tight, and there is still an expectation of price increases. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Coking Coal - The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coking coal industry is strong, and the upward trend of the futures price continues. The domestic coal supply recovery is slow, and the import volume from Mongolia is high. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although the actual impact of over - production inspections on the fundamentals is small, the market sentiment is hyped, and there is still upward space in the short term [13][14]. Glass - The downstream restocking continues, and the spot sales have improved. The demand in the off - season is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the policy, and in the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, maintaining an oscillating view [14]. Soda Ash - The upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory. The long - term oversupply situation remains, and although there are short - term factors driving up the price, the price is expected to decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15][16]. Manganese Silicon - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The cost is supported, the supply is increasing, and the demand remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price will face pressure [17]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price has weakened. The production level is expected to increase, and the downstream demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand gap will gradually narrow, and the price lacks a continuous upward driving force [18].

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3324 | -43 | 热卷01 | 3448 | -44 | | 螺纹05 | 3350 | -36 | 热卷05 | 3459 | -31 | | 螺纹10 | 3274 | -33 | 热卷10 | 3438 | -39 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 3110 | -20 | 张家港废钢 | 2140 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3260 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3410 | -10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3380 | 10 | 热卷:上海 | 3450 | -20 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3430 | 10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3500 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3480 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3480 | -10 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3430 | 1 0 | 热卷:成都 | 3570 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific trading suggestions for various futures varieties: - **Long Positions**: Steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, alumina, urea, PX, PTA, bottle chips, ethanol, LLDPE, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon [2] - **Short Positions**: IM futures long positions (to be gradually liquidated), 08 contract or 10 - contract of container shipping index (EC2510) for short - selling, sugar, palm oil (observation for short - selling opportunities), cotton (medium - term short - selling), eggs (long - term short - selling) [2] - **Hold and Observe**: Treasury bonds (short - term), gold and silver (long positions held), stainless steel, crude oil, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber (not recommended to chase up), PP, methanol, corn, apples, dates, peanuts, glass, soda ash, lithium carbonate [2] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume, and there is an obvious phenomenon of high - low rotation between sectors [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - **Precious Metals**: Under the weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances, the prices of gold and silver remain strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high, and silver has further upward space above $38 [2] - **Black Metals**: The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, and the spot market is strong [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak. The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment, and most chemical products show short - term support or upward trends [2] - **Agricultural Products**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities [2] - **Special Commodities**: Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, and other special commodities fluctuate greatly, and risk avoidance should be noted [2] 3. Summaries by Related Categories **Equity Index Futures** - The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume. It is recommended to gradually liquidate IM futures long positions, replace them with a small number of MO put option short positions in the 08 contract with a strike price of 6000, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish view [2] **Treasury Bond Futures** - The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. In the single - side strategy, short - term observation is recommended. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Considering the possible loosening of the funding side, the curve strategy can continue to bet on steepening [2] **Precious Metals Futures** - The weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances keep the prices of gold and silver strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high. Silver has further upward space above $38, and long positions can be held [2] **Container Shipping Index Futures** - The main contract of the container shipping index (EC2510) falls. It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short - sell the 08 contract or short - sell the 10 - contract at high prices [2] **Black Metal Futures** - The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, the spot market is strong, and the transaction recovers. Mainstream coking plants initiate the second round of price increases, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to rebound [2] **Non - ferrous Metal Futures** - The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high. The aluminum price rebounds slightly, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The demand expectation for zinc is still weak [2] **Energy and Chemical Futures** - **Crude Oil**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak, with WTI in the range of [63, 64], Brent in the range of [66, 67], and SC in the range of [498, 505] [2] - **Chemicals**: The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment. Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. show short - term support or upward trends, but there are also differences in supply - demand fundamentals and price trends among different products [2] **Agricultural Product Futures** - The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities. The old - crop cotton inventory is relatively tight, and the downstream market is weak, showing short - term strength and medium - term short - selling opportunities [2] **Special Commodity Futures** - Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, etc. fluctuate greatly. It is necessary to pay attention to risk avoidance [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the macro situation, and funds are trading in advance on the expectation of supply - side clearance, which boosts copper prices. However, the demand side has weakened significantly, showing a stage of weak supply and demand. The domestic macro - policy support and low inventory support the copper price. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the price is expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks of squeeze - out due to policy changes in Guinea and warehouse receipt reduction. In the medium term, it is recommended to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, the price is under pressure at a high level, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The regenerative aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [8]. Nickel - Macro - sentiment boosts the market, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel is loosening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, the price is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. However, the market sentiment is good recently. It is recommended to avoid short positions for now and short at high prices after the sentiment stabilizes [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a consumption off - season, and the terminal demand is weak. The macro - expectation is strong, and the supply may decrease in the future. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cuts [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures market is supported by macro - sentiment and news. The price is expected to run strongly in a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 13.04% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.3005 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,940 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The alumina prices in different regions have different degrees of increase [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.615 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.255 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,780 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.0361 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,550 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The production cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 121,953 yuan/ton, up 0.88% month - on - month [11]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [11]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 266,300 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The 5 - month tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month, and the import volume was 2,076 tons, up 84.04% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is 12,900 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The 43 - company 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The 300 - series stainless - steel import volume was 0.1095 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month, and the export volume was 0.39 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 68,169 yuan/ton, up 1.62% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in June was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The lithium carbonate demand in June was 93,872 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month, and the total inventory was 99,858 tons, up 2.27% month - on - month [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that there is a significant inflow of funds into infrastructure assets, particularly through the infrastructure ETF (159619), which saw a net inflow of over 40 million units today [1] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which involves the construction of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, has been officially launched [1] - The project is a national strategic initiative that encompasses multiple industry chains, including hydropower construction, infrastructure development, ultra-high voltage transmission, equipment manufacturing, civil explosives, and cement supply, indicating a gradual release of demand across the upstream and downstream industry chains [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government is implementing more proactive macro policies this year, with solid progress in the construction of "dual-weight" projects, leading to a steady increase in infrastructure investment [1] - As special bonds are gradually allocated to projects and relevant policies from the Central Urban Work Conference are being implemented, it is expected that fiscal policy support and improvements in financing will gradually manifest in investment and physical output [1] - The infrastructure ETF (159619) tracks the CSI Infrastructure Index, which includes representative companies from the construction, building materials, and engineering machinery sectors, reflecting the overall performance of the infrastructure industry [2]

| 小期到日 | 24 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区域语院 语密度主题教 2025年7月23日 星期三 | | | | 同酸成 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79755 | 79555 | +200.00 | 0.25% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 240 | 220 | +20.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 79650 | 79245 | +405.00 | 0.51% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | -10 | JE | -25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79550 | 79390 | +160.00 | 0.20% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜开贴水 | 35 | 55 | -20.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1286 | 1479 | -192.77 | -13.04% | 元/肥 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Cautiously bullish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term long - position profit - taking, mid - term short - position layout [1][6][7][8] - **Coke**: Stay on the sidelines [1][9][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Stay on the sidelines [1][13][15][16] - **Ferroalloys**: Cautiously bullish [1][17][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The news of coal production restrictions drives the overall upward movement of the black market, strengthening the bullish sentiment. For rebar, production and apparent demand decline month - on - month, with a slight increase in total inventory, showing off - season characteristics. The significant increase in hot metal production boosts the expected demand for furnace materials. For hot - rolled coils, production, apparent demand, and inventory change little, with a relatively stable fundamental situation and limited contradictions [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, hot metal production increases significantly, with both supply - side shipments and arrivals rising, and there will be more shipments later. Ports are destocking while steel mills are restocking. Recently, steel mills have good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the locked - in profits on the futures market drive the strong performance of iron ore. However, as the recent rise is rapid, there are profit - taking opportunities, so previous long positions should be closed, and attention should be paid to the subsequent supply - side reform policies [1][7]. - **Coke**: The second round of spot price increases has started, and there are still expectations for further increases. The news of coal production restrictions boosts market sentiment. After the rapid price increase, steel mills' restocking makes the market more positive. However, the current market atmosphere seems overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][11]. - **Coking Coal**: The news of coal production restrictions strengthens the bullish sentiment in the market, and the futures price has risen significantly recently. In terms of supply and demand, domestic coking coal production has rebounded recently, approaching last year's level. Some shut - down coal mines have resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase later. The inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory remains stable. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. However, the futures market sentiment is overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply increases while the demand decreases. Although the hot metal production is at a high level, the month - on - month decline in rebar production drags down the demand for ferromanganese, but the slight increase in raw material prices strongly supports the cost. For ferrosilicon, the supply increases while the demand decreases. The factory inventory pressure has been relieved, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3367 with a rise of 90; rebar 05 is at 3386 with a rise of 93; rebar 10 is at 3307 with a rise of 83. Hot - rolled coil 01 is at 3492 with a rise of 82; hot - rolled coil 05 is at 3490 with a rise of 77; hot - rolled coil 10 is at 3477 with a rise of 83. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also show certain changes [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar is expected to continue its strong performance with limited short - term decline due to policy expectations and the increase in hot metal production. Hot - rolled coils may maintain a strong short - term trend due to factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production restrictions, as well as the sharp rise in raw material prices [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore 01 is at 794 with a rise of 17; iron ore 05 is at 771 with a rise of 16; iron ore 09 is at 823 with a rise of 14. The prices of various iron ore powders also change accordingly, and there are also fluctuations in spreads, basis, freight rates, and spot indices [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should take profits, and mid - term short positions can be considered [1][8]. Coke - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coke is at 1752.0 with a rise of 98.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1797.5 with a rise of 98.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1697.5 with a rise of 94.5. There are also changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as capacity utilization, production, and inventory [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines due to the over - exuberant market atmosphere [1][12]. Coking Coal - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coking coal is at 1137.0 with a rise of 81.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1154.0 with a rise of 79.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1048.5 with a rise of 42.5. There are changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as the start - up rate of coal washing plants, production, and inventory [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines because of the overly exuberant futures market sentiment [1][16]. Ferroalloys - **Price Information**: Manganese silicon 01 is at 6084 with a rise of 120; manganese silicon 05 is at 6130 with a rise of 142; manganese silicon 09 is at 6012 with a rise of 98. Silicon iron 01 is at 5952 with a rise of 206; silicon iron 05 is at 6012 with a rise of 220; silicon iron 09 is at 5874 with a rise of 206. There are also changes in spot prices, spreads, and weekly data such as enterprise start - up rates and production [18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For ferromanganese, short - term trading is mainly driven by sentiment, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. In the medium term, the price may face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state. For ferrosilicon, the short - term high market sentiment may lead to a correction, and in the medium term, the price will still face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state [1][20].