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王石再次预测楼市走向?前面几次都对了,这回大概率又对了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 08:51
在风云变幻的楼市中,万科创始人王石的每一次发声,都如同掷地有声的重锤,引人深思。与那些粉饰太平的言论不 同,他的观点总是直指核心,不留情面。最近,他又抛出了一枚"重磅炸弹"——"年轻人,与其买房,不如租房","国内 楼市,还会经过较长时间的调整","还能坚持的房企,不足三分之一"。在对未来楼市的预测中,他的话无疑再次成为了 众人瞩目的焦点。 05、买房人要理性:机会在"理智"之后 王石提醒购房者,要保持理性,机会往往蕴藏在冷静的思考之后。他强调,房地产的角色已经发生了根本性的转变。过 去,房子被视为一种"资产",一种"赚钱的工具",而现在,它更多地回归到"居住需求"和"生活品质"的本质。买房的逻辑 也随之改变,不再是为了追求升值,而是为了获得一份"安心居住"的归属感。"抄底"不再是一种稳赚不赔的游戏。 未来的购房决策,需要更加注重"品质、品牌、风险",切莫再盲目迷信房价上涨的神话。尤其是在楼市转型的大背景 下,许多房子仅仅是"居住的工具",未必能成为保值增值的"资产"。买房不仅要考虑未来的升值空间,更要审视自身能 否承受房价下跌的风险。只有做好了充分的心理准备,才能在楼市的变局中保持清醒,做出明智的选择。 0 ...
李嘉诚王健林说中了!中国手握“2套房”以上的家庭,今年起,或注定3个结果
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 06:21
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant declines in property values, driven by various economic and demographic factors, leading to a shift in consumer behavior and investment strategies [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - Nationally, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to July [4]. - In Shenzhen, those who believed in a market rebound have seen losses of around 10% this year [4]. - Property prices have dropped over 30% in some areas, with average prices falling from over 90,000 to over 60,000 [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Income levels have declined due to the pandemic, leading to reduced purchasing power and increased financial strain on individuals [4][5]. - The aging population is increasing, with over 310 million elderly people, leading to a decrease in housing demand as many retirees may sell their homes to improve their quality of life [5]. - The declining birth rate is contributing to a supply-demand imbalance in the housing market [5]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - Younger generations are increasingly opting for renting over buying, with changing societal norms around marriage and homeownership [7]. - The introduction of policies allowing rental rights for school admissions has further shifted perceptions about homeownership [7]. - Economic uncertainty has led to decreased confidence in purchasing homes, with potential buyers hesitant to commit due to fears of job stability and income [7][8]. Group 4: Market Liquidity - The current market is characterized by a significant oversupply of properties, with many listings remaining unsold for months [8]. - In major cities, properties in core areas have seen price reductions of around 30% from peak levels [8]. - The secondary housing market is facing challenges, with a large number of listings and limited buyer interest, particularly in less desirable locations [8]. Group 5: Holding Costs - The costs associated with owning multiple properties are rising, including maintenance fees and potential new taxes [9][10]. - New regulations are expected to increase transparency in property taxation, which may lead to higher costs for landlords [9][10]. Group 6: Strategic Recommendations - For first-time buyers, it is advised to focus on personal housing needs rather than market fluctuations, as current conditions may offer favorable purchasing opportunities [12]. - Investors are cautioned to reconsider their strategies, as most properties will primarily serve as residences rather than investment vehicles [12]. - Those holding multiple properties should reassess their asset management strategies, considering selling underperforming assets and leveraging quality properties for rental income [13][15].
7月房价数据揭晓:楼市深度调整,市场静待新转机
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 15:23
Group 1: Market Trends - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a significant adjustment in the real estate market, with only 6 cities experiencing a month-on-month increase in new residential property prices, the lowest since the implementation of major policies last September [1] - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, while the sales area and sales revenue of new residential properties fell by 4.0% and 6.5%, respectively, highlighting a weakening effect of the "price for volume" strategy [1] - The area of new housing starts saw a substantial decline of 19.4%, further exacerbating market pessimism [1] Group 2: Performance of Major Cities - Shanghai stands out as the only first-tier city with a continuous month-on-month increase in new residential property prices for 10 consecutive months, with July sales reaching 31.4 billion yuan, where luxury properties contributed 41% of total sales [4] - In contrast, Beijing's market remains weak despite some luxury projects boosting sales, while Guangzhou has not seen any month-on-month price increases for 10 months, and Shenzhen continues to experience a widening decline [4] - Among 31 major second-tier cities, only Urumqi and Changchun reported month-on-month price increases, with cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou also facing declines [4] Group 3: Policy Responses - Despite efforts from central and local governments to stabilize the market, the response has been lukewarm, with policies such as expanding affordable housing supply in population inflow cities failing to reverse the downward trend [5] - Beijing's recent easing of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road did not address more impactful measures like core area restrictions or mortgage rates, leading to perceptions of passive rather than proactive policy adjustments [5] - The recovery of market confidence faces multiple challenges, including limited effectiveness of the "price for volume" strategy in the second-hand market and weak demand in the new housing market [5]
楼市持续深度调整 市场改善存多方面积极因素
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 14:05
Core Insights - The real estate market in China is currently undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with a significant decline in investment and housing prices, necessitating continued policy support to stimulate demand and restore the market's focus on housing as a necessity and for public welfare [1][2][3] Investment Trends - From January to July, national real estate development investment reached 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% [1] - The new construction area of residential buildings fell by 19.4% year-on-year, but the decline has been narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2] Price Movements - In July, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - Second and third-tier cities saw year-on-year price declines of 2.8% and 4.2%, respectively, with reductions also narrowing [3] Market Recovery Indicators - The trend of price declines in the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with some cities experiencing price increases [3][4] - Financial support for real estate is improving, with bank approvals for loans significantly increasing, which may lead to a reduction in the year-on-year decline in real estate investment in the second half of the year [2] Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that local governments should focus on stabilizing housing prices and adapt pricing strategies to better match market demand [5] - There is a call for continued exploration of policies to encourage housing demand and improve the overall market environment [1][5]
7月楼市数据出炉:多项指标降幅扩大,一线城市新房市场显韧性
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-08-15 10:33
各地要加大力度研究如何消化二手房房源,为新房市场提供更好的市场环境。 当前,房地产市场仍处于深度调整阶段,供需两端修复节奏放缓,止跌回稳工作仍需靶向发力、持续推 进。 8月15日,国家统计局发布最新房地产数据。数据显示,7月房地产开发投资、销售面积、销售金额等多 项指标同比降幅呈扩大态势,市场调整压力依旧存在。 从投资端来看,1-7月份,全国房地产开发投资53580亿元,同比下降12.0%,比1-6月份扩大0.8个百分 点;其中,住宅投资41208亿元,下降10.9%。 从销售端来看,1-7月份,新建商品房销售面积51560万平方米,同比下降4.0%,比1-6月份扩大0.5个百 分点;其中住宅销售面积下降4.1%。新建商品房销售额49566亿元,同比下降6.5%,比1-6月份扩大1个 百分点;其中住宅销售额下降6.2%。 对此,多位业内人士表示,最新数据反映出当前房地产市场仍面临需求释放不足、企业投资信心偏弱的 双重压力。短期来看,需进一步强化政策的精准性与协同性,推动供需两端形成良性互动。 一线城市新房市场显韧性上海领涨全国 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶表示,本次北京楼市新政信号意义明显,限购政策优化也 ...
一线城市新房价格同环比降幅收窄,专家认为未来楼市止跌回稳趋势不变
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-15 04:55
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization after a period of decline, with a trend towards recovery expected to continue in the future [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Trends - In July, new home prices in first-tier cities saw a narrowing decline both year-on-year and month-on-month, with a 0.2% month-on-month decrease, which is a 0.1 percentage point improvement from the previous month [2][3]. - Year-on-year, first-tier cities experienced a 1.1% drop in new home prices, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, with Shanghai showing a significant increase of 6.1% [3][4]. - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased to 5 in July, with Shanghai and Urumqi both seeing a 0.3% increase, indicating a slight recovery in certain markets [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is currently in a seasonal adjustment phase, with July and August typically being slower months, but first-tier cities are showing signs of stabilization in the new home market [1][4]. - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities is under pressure, with high listing volumes leading to a buyer's market, particularly in cities like Beijing where listings exceeded 160,000 [4][5]. - The demand for second-hand homes is increasing, especially among young people and new urban residents, as affordability improves due to falling prices [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the trend of price stabilization will continue, supported by a narrowing year-on-year price index across 70 cities and a reduction in new home sales to levels not seen since 2010 [5]. - Policy adjustments aimed at restoring the housing market's fundamentals, including support for education and employment, are expected to bolster housing consumption and mitigate panic selling in the second-hand market [5]. - The shift towards affordable and quality housing, along with urban renewal initiatives, is anticipated to drive future demand and stabilize new home prices [5][6].
房企最新“成绩单”有变化,四季度“冲刺促销”要来了?
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-12 05:47
中新网11月2日电(中新财经记者 左宇坤)伴随着各上市房企接连披露第三季度业绩报告,前10个月的销 售排行榜也随之出炉。备受关注的头部房企间,出现了一些排名的位移与发展的分化。 在三季度一轮轮高频次、大力度政策利好释放后,各地楼市已经历了需求逐渐入市、成交冲高回落的过 程。持续筑底中,房企该如何在四季度的"抢收战"中抢占先机? "领头羊"有变 中指研究院发布的《2023年1-10月中国房地产企业销售业绩排行榜》显示,TOP100房企前10月销售总 额为52977亿元,同比下降13.1%。 在市场处于调整期的大背景下,房企间的排名也发生了不小的变化。在去年的1-10月销售榜中,销售额 前五强分别是碧桂园、保利发展、万科、中海地产、华润置地;今年的同一个维度下,前五名变成了保 利发展、万科、中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口。 经过一年市场调整,保利发展与万科依然是闪亮的"双子星"。其中,保利发展以领先第二名565.5亿元 的优势稳居行业榜首,这一差距可谓是一个中型房企的销售规模。 在2022年初的保利发展2022年度工作会议上,董事长刘平提出了"进三争一"的新目标。虽说到了今年4 月的2022年度业绩说明会上,管理层 ...
任职12年后,沙河股份董事长陈勇因“工作调动”辞职 公司:系集团内部正常调动
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-11 12:28
8月11日,沙河股份(000014)(000014.SZ,股价12.95元,市值31.34亿元)公告称,陈勇因工作调动原 因,申请辞去公司董事长、董事等职务。辞职后,陈勇不再在公司担任任何职务。截至目前,陈勇及其 直系亲属未持有公司股份。公告中,沙河股份董事会对陈勇多年来的工作表示了感谢。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到,陈勇自2013年8月被选举为沙河股份董事长以来,已经连续任职12年。 而其任职期间内,公司业绩波动较大,在经历2023年的高增长后,去年沙河股份的营收和归母净利润均 出现大幅下滑。公司上市后任职时间最长的董事长 上市公司公告称,陈勇的辞职未导致公司董事会成员低于法定人数,不会影响公司董事会正常运作。公 司将按照法定程序尽快完成董事补选、董事长选举等工作。 据沙河股份公告,陈勇于1970年1月出生,1991年7月本科毕业于安徽大学,1994年7月硕士毕业于中国 人民大学。早期陈勇曾任职于深圳市物业发展(集团)股份有限公司,历任秘书科科长、下属国贸发展公 司总经理、吉发仓储公司总经理及本部资产部经理。陈勇还加入深圳市沙河实业(集团)有限公司,历任 资产部经理、总经理助理兼沙河医院支部书记等职。 20 ...
楼市快报||2025年上半年重庆房地产市场总结与分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 08:51
Policy Overview - In January 2025, Chongqing government issued policies to improve the housing tax pilot program, excluding non-local buyers from taxation on ordinary residential purchases [2] - From February 8, 2025, the trading restrictions on previously limited housing in central urban areas were lifted, enhancing market liquidity [2] - By April 15, 2025, the first mortgage rate was reduced to 3.25%, and the down payment ratio for first homes dropped to 15% [2] High-Quality Housing Initiatives - On May 19, 2025, Chongqing's planning authority introduced measures to support high-quality residential development, focusing on safety, comfort, and sustainability [3] - The 2025 housing development plan aims to supply approximately 15 million square meters of commercial housing and 24,000 rental housing units [3] Real Estate Market Analysis - From January to June 2025, industrial land transactions dominated, accounting for 68.42% of total land sales, while residential land made up about 21.05%, with a 71.43% increase in transaction numbers year-on-year [6] - The average floor price for residential land in central Chongqing rose to 7,410 yuan/m², a 15.69% increase from the previous year [8] Residential Market Performance - The average residential price in central Chongqing was 14,054 yuan/m² in the first half of 2025, down 7.1% year-on-year [13] - Residential sales volume reached approximately 237.1 million m², a 10.7% increase year-on-year, while supply decreased by 10.9% [13] Commercial Real Estate Trends - The average price for commercial properties in central Chongqing was 11,559 yuan/m², reflecting a 1.3% increase year-on-year [14] - Commercial transaction volume decreased by 23.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the commercial real estate sector [15] Office Space Market - The average price for office space was 9,901 yuan/m², a 6.2% increase year-on-year, but transaction volume fell by 60.3% [23] - Key areas for office transactions included Shapingba, Jiangbei, and Yubei, with significant declines in other regions [26] Industrial and Warehouse Market - Investment in key industrial projects reached 240.95 billion yuan, achieving 50.2% of the annual target, with a focus on high-end and green industrial transformation [29] - Despite external economic pressures, the industrial land market showed significant growth, supported by government policies [29] Overall Market Summary - The residential market is stabilizing in core areas, while commercial and office sectors continue to face inventory challenges [30] - The overall real estate market in Chongqing remains in an adjustment phase, with some signs of recovery in select areas [30]
绿城哈尔滨“地王”项目75%股权出售,轻资产代建成转型新路径
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 06:55
| 项目名称 西安隆运房地产开发有限公司持有哈尔滨罐意置业有限公司75%股权 | 项目编号 FA250722001 | | --- | --- | | 转让庞价(万元) 20,168.86 | 3个工作日,如来证属到意向受让方,不变更猛牌条件按照1个工作 使露公告期 | | | 日为一个周期延长,直至征集到意向受让方。 | | 值患披露起始日期 2025-07-23 09:00:00 | 值息按露培里期 2025-07-28 17:00:00 | 文 | 白杨 2025年7月下旬,一则来自西部产权交易所的股权转让公告,引起黑龙江地产界的广泛关注,公告显 示,西安耀诚房地产开发有限公司拟转让其持有的哈尔滨耀意置业有限公司75%股权,转让底价 20168.86万元。 此次交易的披露公告期仅三个工作日,且股权受让方需在3个工作日内签约并一次性付清全款,同时缴 纳100万元保证金,这样的条款与极短的交易窗口期,凸显了转让方迫切的资金回笼需求。此次转让完 成后,西安耀诚持股比例将从100%降至25%。 2022年5月绿城·诚园以改善盘姿态亮相,据贝壳新房平台显示,2022年6月,项目参考均价约15000元/ 平方米;到 ...