【中信证券：预计美联储明年全年降息两次各25bps】智通财经12月19日电，中信证券研报表示，美国 11月CPI大幅低于预期，核心服务通胀明显降温，但数据噪音较大、质量存疑。我们认为美国通胀前景 确实正在趋于缓和，关税对物价的扰动或会逐步减弱，租金通胀和超级核心通胀都可能在明年维持较理 想的中低增速。本次CPI报告对美元流动性构成短期利好，但数据质量的硬伤和就业市场的平静状态使 其不足以明显提振降息预期，我们仍预计美联储明年全年降息两次各25bps。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 华泰证券指出，虽然11月CPI数据边际推高美联储降息预期，但由于通胀和劳工数据噪音较大，美联储 可能暂停降息进行观察（以及明年下半年降息1-2次的预测）。由于关税税率未进一步上行，且关税对 通胀传导没有明显时滞，关税对通胀的影响较为温和，美国高通胀的风险可控，但11月通胀的下行或因 扰动因素而被放大。明年1月会议前将公布的12月非农和CPI数据受政府关门影响较小，能够提供对于 经济更加可靠的信息。因此，美联储当前处于观察期，由于就业市场或逐步改善，明年1月联储将暂缓 降息的基准判断，待新任联储主席上任后的明年下半年降息1-2次。 ...

（原标题：中金：美国11月CPI大幅低于预期 依然维持明年一季度见顶判断） 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，美国11月整体和核心CPI大幅低于预期和前值，整体同比2.74%， 一致预期3.06%，前值3.01%;核心同比2.63%，一致预期3.03%，前值3.02%。依然维持美国通胀问题不 大这一判断，整体和核心CPI明年一季度和二季度分别见顶。今年市场在4月和8月因关税两度引发通胀 担忧，但实际结果证明，两次都没有什么实质影响，市场徒增担忧，这也是一直强调的看法。核心原因 就在于一个"慢"字，只要传导的足够慢(例如目前美国居民承担的关税利率也就是10-15%左右)，那就不 妨碍美联储降息，也可以留出很多空间解决其他问题。 中金主要观点如下： 政府关门之后的第一份通胀数据也终于出炉，结果就很"炸裂"，断崖式下行。 11月整体和核心CPI大幅低于预期和前值，整体同比2.74%，一致预期3.06%，前值3.01%;核心同比 2.63%，一致预期3.03%，前值3.02%。环比也是类似，10月因政府关门无法统计，所以环比只有10-11 月平均口径，整体0.10%，前值0.31%;核心0.08%，前值0.23%。 ...

中金发布研报称，美国11月整体和核心CPI大幅低于预期和前值，整体同比2.74%，一致预期3.06%，前 值3.01%;核心同比2.63%，一致预期3.03%，前值3.02%。依然维持美国通胀问题不大这一判断，整体和 核心CPI明年一季度和二季度分别见顶。今年市场在4月和8月因关税两度引发通胀担忧，但实际结果证 明，两次都没有什么实质影响，市场徒增担忧，这也是一直强调的看法。核心原因就在于一个"慢"字， 只要传导的足够慢(例如目前美国居民承担的关税利率也就是10-15%左右)，那就不妨碍美联储降息，也 可以留出很多空间解决其他问题。 中金主要观点如下： 政府关门之后的第一份通胀数据也终于出炉，结果就很"炸裂"，断崖式下行。 11月整体和核心CPI大幅低于预期和前值，整体同比2.74%，一致预期3.06%，前值3.01%;核心同比 2.63%，一致预期3.03%，前值3.02%。环比也是类似，10月因政府关门无法统计，所以环比只有10-11 月平均口径，整体0.10%，前值0.31%;核心0.08%，前值0.23%。 在数据公布前的预测已经低于市场共识，但结果比该行已经处于主要机构光谱低端的预测还要低，所以 称 ...

中新社华盛顿12月18日电 (记者陈孟统)美国劳工部18日发布数据称，美国11月消费者价格指数(CPI)同 比上涨2.7%。由于10月联邦政府"停摆"，调查数据未采集，11月未公布常规的单月环比数据。 这一通胀数据低于市场普遍预期，也较美国9月CPI同比3.0%的涨幅有所回落。 数据显示，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%。当月，能源价格指数 同比上涨4.2%，食品价格指数同比上涨2.6%。 11月份，美国住房类价格指数同比上涨3.0%，成为推动物价上涨的主要因素。其他涨幅较为明显的领 域还包括医疗保健、家庭家具及运营、娱乐以及二手车价格等。 《华尔街日报》指出，美国11月的CPI数据显示通胀有所放缓，但由于调查采集存在缺口，相关数据可 能低估了实际通胀水平，不宜对这份报告作过度解读。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's year-end speech aimed to highlight his administration's achievements while blaming the Biden administration for ongoing issues like rising prices and illegal immigration, amidst declining support and economic challenges [1][4]. Economic and Public Sentiment Pressure - Recent data shows significant pressure on the Trump administration regarding economic and public sentiment, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and approximately 7.83 million unemployed individuals, significantly higher than the previous year [2] - Polls indicate that nearly half of respondents feel substantial pressure from living costs, with about 60% expressing pessimism about the future, and over half believing the U.S. is in a recession [2] - Only 33% of Americans approve of Trump's economic policies, marking the lowest approval rating during his second term, with support among his core "MAGA" voters declining by 8 percentage points since April [2] Economic Outlook and Predictions - Economist Paul Krugman noted that while it cannot be definitively stated that the U.S. is in a recession, some economic indicators show "pre-recession" characteristics, contrasting sharply with Trump's optimistic portrayal of the economy [3] Speech Content Analysis - Trump's speech had three main focuses: 1. Blame-shifting, repeatedly attributing issues to Biden, claiming he inherited the highest inflation in 48 years and the worst border situation [4] 2. Self-promotion, claiming to have secured $18 trillion in investments, which is significantly higher than the $9.6 trillion reported by the White House, and falsely stating that inflation has stopped [4] 3. Vague promises regarding housing reform and tax cuts, lacking specific details or timelines, perceived as mere slogans [4] Midterm Election Implications - With less than a year until the midterm elections, the Republican Party faces a challenging outlook, as economic issues are seen as critical to election outcomes. Trump's failure to lower prices, a key campaign promise, remains unfulfilled [6] - Analysts suggest that if Trump's economic policies do not meet voter expectations, the Republican Party may face significant losses in the midterm elections, with public sentiment shifting blame from Biden to the current administration [6]

今晚市场迎来美国通胀报告，预计11月CPI年率维持在3%的增速，如果符合预期，则不会大幅扰乱当前 市场对于美联储1月降息的押注概率。但如果通胀出现意外，则会再次给市场带来波动，并直接定下年 末的方向。美联储密切关注价格趋势，以指导其2026年的政策展望，投资者将从这份报告中寻找通胀压 力变化的迹象——例如，能源成本对总体数据的影响。 由于人工智能相关股票的疲软抵消了投资者对美联储可能进一步降息的乐观情绪，美国股市连续第四个 交易日下跌。标普500指数周三下跌1.2%，创下一个月来最长连跌纪录。交易员们正在密切关注美联储 的下一步动向，今晚关键通胀数据以及每周初请失业金人数，将为美联储的潜在利率路径提供线索。由 于市场预期CPI年率持稳在3%，若符合预期则可能对美股的波动影响有限。根据巴克莱银行汇编的数 据，期权交易员押注标普500指数在通胀报告公布后将出现0.7%的波动。 近年来，美国通胀率已从2022年的峰值回落，但目前仍保持在3%左右，略高于美联储2%的目标。劳动 力市场显示出温和的降温迹象：就业增长放缓，失业率从低点（9月份达到约4.4%）小幅上升。在这种 背景下，美联储上周宣布了年内第三次降息，将联邦 ...

Core Viewpoint - 招银国际 forecasts that the U.S. economic growth rate and unemployment rate may stabilize by 2026, with inflation expected to decrease before rising again, and the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates once in June [1] Economic Indicators - In October, the U.S. added significantly fewer non-farm jobs due to the end of government layoffs from earlier in the year, while private employment continued to expand [1] - November saw a rebound in non-farm job additions, exceeding market expectations, primarily concentrated in construction, healthcare, and educational services [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, marking a nearly four-year high [1] Employment Market Analysis - The non-farm employment data for October is considered noisy due to missing information caused by the government shutdown, leading to a mild market reaction [1] - Overall, the employment market shows signs of weakness but has not deteriorated significantly [1] - There was a slight improvement in the number of initial and continuing unemployment claims, and the service sector PMI employment index and job postings on Indeed have rebounded, indicating resilience in the job market [1]

Employment Data - In November 2025, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000, while October's figure was revised to -105,000[6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the expected 4.5%, marking the highest level since October 2021[6][9] - The labor participation rate increased to 62.5%, reflecting a return of workers to the job market[9] Wage Growth and Inflation - Private sector hourly wage growth slowed to 0.1% month-on-month, significantly below the expected 0.3%[9] - Year-on-year wage growth decreased to 3.5%, down from 3.8%[9] - Core service inflation pressures are easing as wage growth decelerates[9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The current employment data does not indicate a need for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[9] - The Fed is expected to pause rate cuts until at least Q1 2026, with a potential cumulative cut of at least 50 basis points by year-end[9][32] - The upcoming change in Fed leadership in May 2026 may lead to a more dovish approach to monetary policy, depending on economic conditions[9]

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations and indicating a dovish stance [4][5] - The Fed initiated a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program, committing to purchase $40 billion of short-term Treasury bonds monthly starting in December, aimed at releasing liquidity [5] - Economic outlook has been adjusted positively, with the GDP growth forecast for 2026 raised by 0.5 percentage points, while the core PCE inflation forecast was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a controlled inflation environment [5] Market Reaction - As of December 10, major indices showed positive movement: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.0%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% [6] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 5 basis points to 4.13%, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 7 basis points to 3.54% [6] - The US dollar index closed at 98.64, reflecting market adjustments following the Fed's announcement [6] Future Outlook - The Fed may pause rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, with potential cuts occurring 2-3 times from June to November, depending on the new Fed chair's leadership [5] - The second quarter of 2026 may present a favorable window for Treasury bond investments, contingent on the resolution of uncertainties such as tariff judicial decisions and government shutdowns [5]