美国通胀

Search documents
降息3次!刚刚,美联储突发!
中国基金报· 2025-08-10 07:00
Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year, citing weak labor market data as a key factor [3][5] - Bowman previously supported maintaining interest rates until June but voted against the decision in July, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][5] - She urges other decision-makers to initiate rate cuts at the September Federal Reserve meeting to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000 in July, below expectations, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [7][9] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% in July, compared to a 0.2% increase in June, indicating a potential uptick in inflation due to higher tariffs [9][10] - Higher tariffs are beginning to affect consumer prices, particularly in household goods and entertainment, creating a dilemma for Federal Reserve officials who are trying to assess the impact on sustained inflation while monitoring labor market trends [9][10]
【环球财经】一周前瞻:美国7月CPI数据将揭晓,美联储降息预期或再受扰动
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 05:54
Group 1: Market Overview - The week from August 4 to 9 saw a significant focus on potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, impacting interest rate expectations and capital market trends [1] - Major global stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 closing at 6389.45 points, up 2.43% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.35% to 44175.61 points; and the Nasdaq increased by 3.87% to 21450.02 points [1] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, fell by 25.52% during the same period [1] Group 2: Commodity Market - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical high of $3534 per ounce before settling at $3458.2, marking a weekly increase of 1.72% [2] - Silver also performed well, with spot silver closing at $38.525 per ounce, up 3.53% for the week, while COMEX silver futures rose by 4.28% [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. economic data releases include the July Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and retail sales, which are expected to influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [3] - The market anticipates a rise in July CPI to 2.8% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in June, with core CPI also expected to show an increase [4][5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump has nominated Stephen Moore to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, with three main candidates for the next Fed Chair being Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher J. Waller, all of whom are seen as supportive of interest rate cuts [7] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased significantly, with predictions of a total reduction of 100 basis points over the next four meetings [7][8]
美联储理事鲍曼:支持今年降息三次
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 23:48
Core Viewpoint - Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to act to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [1] Monetary Policy - Bowman urges other Federal Reserve decision-makers to begin cutting rates at the upcoming September meeting, citing recent weak labor market data as a reinforcement of her stance [1] - She believes that the proposed cuts will help avoid unnecessary worsening of labor market conditions and reduce the likelihood of needing larger policy adjustments in the future [1] Economic Outlook - Bowman reiterates that tariff-driven price increases are unlikely to sustain inflationary pressures [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained interest rates so far this year, with Bowman previously supporting this stance until June [1] - In July, both Bowman and Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 basis point rate cut [1]
中金研究 | 本周精选:宏观、策略、大类资产
中金点睛· 2025-08-09 01:07
Macroeconomy - Despite a slowdown in economic growth and low inflation in Q2, A-shares have experienced a rapid rise, likened to a "water buffalo" in the context of financial cycles [4] - The current economic indicators in China are still in need of improvement, but several factors support the stock market performance, suggesting a shift from traditional economic cycle perspectives to financial cycle perspectives may provide better insights [4] - Policies aimed at addressing debt issues are crucial during a financial cycle downturn, as they can enhance balance sheets and boost economic vitality, which is significant for capital markets [4] Strategy - Tariffs have contributed to a partial rebound in U.S. inflation, with seasonal adjustment methods underestimating inflation by nearly 20 basis points over the past two months; CPI readings may not yet reflect the true inflation rebound [6] - A turning point in CPI is anticipated within the next 1-2 months, with a potential confirmation date around August 12, and the CPI year-on-year upturn may last for about a year [6] - The low risk premium in U.S. equities is primarily due to rising real returns and investor enthusiasm for U.S. stocks amid a global "asset shortage"; adjustments in risk-free rates suggest there is still slight room for recovery in the risk premium [8] Macroeconomy - The central rate of interest in China has significant downward potential, but the rapid decline in the 10-year government bond yield over the past three years may not continue; short-term policy rate cuts may face limitations around 1% [10] - The 10-year government bond yield's term premium is unlikely to fall below 0.2%, indicating that other policy measures, such as fiscal expansion and central bank balance sheet expansion, may be more effective in stimulating growth [10] Macroeconomy - The U.S. dollar index has rebounded during a depreciation cycle, but this trend halted following the release of July's non-farm payroll data, leading to significant market fluctuations [12] - The U.S. economy appears to have bottomed out in June and showed signs of improvement in July, with a debt issuance wave beginning to absorb dollar liquidity [12] - Looking ahead, the impact of tariffs on inflation may become more apparent, and tightening dollar liquidity could negatively affect U.S. stock performance in August and September, with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially rising to around 4.8% [12]
中金:美国通胀未来1 - 2个月或迎上行拐点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 01:13
本文由 AI 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 【中金:美国通胀或在未来1—2个月迎来上行拐点】中金公司研究发现,关税已致使美国通胀出现局部 反弹。不过,由于季节调整方法存在缺陷,过去2个月的通胀被低估了近20bp,CPI读数未能反映出通 胀反弹的真实状况。 该公司预测,CPI环比可能在未来1—2个月确认上行拐点,最快在8月12日就能得 到验证。CPI同比上行周期预计将持续一年左右,可借助投入产出表来估测通胀上升幅度。 随着美国通 胀进入上行周期,可能会对美联储的降息节奏造成干扰,进而让全球资产面临新的变数。 ...
中金:美国通胀或在未来1-2个月迎来上行拐点
智通财经网· 2025-08-08 00:22
智通财经APP获悉,中金公司发布研报称,关税其实已经导致美国通胀局部反弹,但季节调整方法缺陷低估过 去2个月通胀近20bp,CPI读数尚未反映通胀反弹的真实情况。中金预测CPI环比或在未来1-2个月确认上行拐 点,最快在8月12日验证。CPI同比上行周期或持续一年左右,可使用投入产出表估测通胀上升幅度。美国通胀 进入上行周期,可能干扰美联储降息节奏,让全球资产迎来新变数。 中金公司主要观点如下: 关税税率明显上升,为何美国通胀没有反弹? 年初至今,美国平均关税税率已经由2.3%大幅升至18.4%,美国通胀却维持低位,市场普遍预期关税只会导致 温和通胀或暂时性通胀,甚至怀疑关税不会导致明显通胀。我们认为市场定价可能低估美国通胀反弹风险。有 3个关键因素,延缓了关税驱动的通胀传导。一旦这些因素发生变化,美国通胀反弹可能"虽迟终至": 1)统计方法缺陷,低估近月通胀。美国通胀具有较强季节性,需要使用统计模型剔除季节性变化。疫情之后 通胀季节性发生突变,当前季节调整模型存在缺陷,可能累计压低5-6月通胀水平约20bp。使用修正后的季节 调整方法,美国核心CPI环比增速其实已经转为上行。其次,大量CPI商品分项(如服装 ...
中金:美国通胀进入上行周期,可能干扰美联储降息节奏
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-08 00:13
Core Viewpoint - The research indicates that tariffs have contributed to a localized rebound in U.S. inflation, with seasonal adjustment methods underestimating inflation by nearly 20 basis points over the past two months [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Trends** - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings have not yet reflected the true situation of the inflation rebound [1] - A prediction is made that the CPI may confirm an upward turning point in the next 1-2 months, with the earliest validation expected on August 12 [1] - The upward cycle of CPI year-on-year may last for about a year [1] - **Economic Implications** - The rising inflation in the U.S. could disrupt the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule, introducing new variables for global assets [1] - **Estimation Methods** - An input-output table can be used to estimate the extent of the inflation increase [1]
中金:美国通胀或在未来1—2个月迎来上行拐点
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-08 00:00
人民财讯8月8日电,中金公司(601995)发现关税其实已经导致美国通胀局部反弹,但季节调整方法缺 陷低估过去2个月通胀近20bp,CPI读数尚未反映通胀反弹的真实情况。预测CPI环比或在未来1—2个月 确认上行拐点,最快在8月12日验证。CPI同比上行周期或持续一年左右,可使用投入产出表估测通胀 上升幅度。美国通胀进入上行周期,可能干扰美联储降息节奏,让全球资产迎来新变数。 ...
美国经济面临临界点丨孙长忠专栏
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-05 22:33
Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with July non-farm payrolls adding only 19,000 jobs, the lowest in nine months, and previous months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][2] - The unemployment rate remains stable, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points in July, indicating that despite low job growth, the labor market is not in a state of crisis [3][4] - Labor force participation has been declining since May, with a total decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year by July, reaching the lowest level since November 2022 [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the end of July, but there were notable dissenting votes from two board members, highlighting internal divisions regarding monetary policy in light of the employment data [2][3] - The PCE price index showed a rebound, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% in Q2, suggesting that inflation pressures are still present, albeit at a moderated level [5] - The quality of employment is declining as the actual number of employed individuals decreases, with long-term unemployment rising to 1.83 million, the highest level since 2017, excluding the pandemic [4][5]
如何看待非农“爆冷”? 新一轮关税加剧市场担忧、中美贸易谈判与地缘局势
2025-08-05 03:16
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on the labor market, inflation, and the impact of tariffs and trade negotiations with China. [1][6][17] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Labor Market Data Revision**: The U.S. labor market data was significantly revised downwards, with July's job additions at 73,000 and a downward revision of 258,000 for the previous two months, leading to an average of only 35,000 jobs added over the last three months, the largest downward revision in decades. [2][3] 2. **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a potential slowdown in job creation despite the rate remaining relatively stable compared to last year. [2][3] 3. **GDP Growth**: The second quarter GDP growth rate was 3%, consistent with last year, but the internal demand growth rate fell to 1.2%, down from 2.4% last year, indicating weakening demand. [5] 4. **Impact of Tariffs**: New tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised the effective tax rate from 10% to 20.5%, leading to increased inflationary pressures as companies may pass on costs to consumers. [11][12] 5. **Inflation Expectations**: Structural inflation is expected to rise in the second half of the year, driven by core commodity price increases due to tariffs, while rent and service prices remain moderate. [13] 6. **Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to the labor market's downturn and inflation pressures, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September from 40% to 88%. [9][16] 7. **Trade Negotiations with China**: Current U.S.-China trade negotiations have not yielded substantial results, with ongoing challenges related to market access, energy purchases, and investment. [17][24] 8. **Sector-Specific Impacts**: Different sectors are affected variably by tariffs; technology companies are performing well, while manufacturing firms like General Motors and Ford are experiencing losses. [14][15] 9. **Geopolitical Factors**: The complexity of U.S.-China relations is compounded by geopolitical factors, including the U.S. stance on Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, which may further complicate trade negotiations. [24][25] Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Labor Participation Rate**: The labor participation rate has decreased from 62.7% last year to 62.2% this year, indicating a decline in labor supply, particularly among foreign-born populations. [3][4] - **Market Sentiment**: Investor sentiment is cautious due to increased geopolitical risks and seasonal factors, with August and September typically being weaker months for the stock market. [26][27] - **Potential Cooperation Areas**: There are suggestions for exploring more cooperative areas between the U.S. and China, such as increased purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds by China, although feasibility remains uncertain. [20][21]