Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic operations and is expanding its international business opportunities [1] - The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated resilience in operations with a revenue increase of 6.9% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 16.87% [2] - The company is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the short to medium term, with long-term value potential [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 698.50 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.34 billion, up 16.87% [2] - The company's net profit margin for Q1 2025 was approximately 3.20%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.27 percentage points [3] - The express logistics revenue grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while supply chain and international revenue increased by 9.9% [4] - The company reported a significant increase in free cash flow, up 55.6% year-on-year, indicating improved cash management and operational efficiency [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 119.11 billion, 142.57 billion, and 168.45 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 19.7%, and 18.2% [6] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 18.1, 15.1, and 12.8 [6] Key Financial Indicators - The total revenue for 2023 is reported at 258,409 million, with a projected growth rate of 10.1% for 2024 and 10.9% for 2025 [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.8% by 2027 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 8.9% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2027 [7]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's CSI 300 Free Cash Flow ETF is set to be listed on May 7, 2025, with a total of 425 million shares [1] - As of April 25, 2025, the fund's asset allocation consists entirely of bank deposits and settlement reserves, with no stock investments during the initial building period [1] - In April, a total of 35 stock ETFs have announced their listings, with an average allocation of only 14.95% [1] Group 2 - The average fundraising for newly announced ETFs in April is 597 million shares, with leading funds including Ping An CSI A500 ETF and Southern CSI All Share Free Cash Flow ETF [2] - Institutional investors hold an average of 19.28% of the shares in these ETFs, with the highest proportions in funds like Penghua STAR 50 ETF and China International CSI 300 ETF [2] - The table provided lists various ETFs, their establishment dates, fundraising sizes, and stock allocation percentages, highlighting the low stock allocation for several funds [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic operations and is expanding its international business opportunities [1] - The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated resilience in operations with a revenue increase of 6.9% year-on-year, and a net profit growth of 16.87% [2][3] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and quality improvement, leading to a slight increase in net profit margins [3] - The logistics revenue increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while supply chain and international revenue grew by 9.9% [4] - The peak of capital expenditure has passed, resulting in a significant increase in free cash flow by 55.6% [5] - The company is expected to maintain strong profit growth in the coming years, with projected net profits of 119.11 billion, 142.57 billion, and 168.45 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 698.50 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 22.34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.87% [2] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 40.62 billion, down 14.21% year-on-year [5] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 315.54 billion, with a growth rate of 10.9% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 11.91 billion, with a growth rate of 17.1% [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 14.0% by 2025 [7]

从估值角度看，A股已进入极具吸引力的配置区间。据数据统计，截至4月25日，沪深300指数动态市盈 率仅11.57倍，低于10年以来均值水平（2005年以来指数动态估值均值11.86倍）。沪深300股息率达到了 3.58%，股息率达到了近10年来的历史新高，凸显"高性价比"特征。长期来看，中国经济基本面的复苏 态势更为明确，为中长期资金提供了"跌出来的机会"，投资者需理性看待短期市场波动，在优质资产估 值回调阶段积极把握低位布局良机。 继"国家队"出手后，又一家公募基金宣布自购。 4月28日，方正富邦基金发布运用固有资金投资认购旗下基金的公告，据悉，基于对中国资本市场高质 量发展和公司投资管理能力的信心，方正富邦基金将出资500万元自有资金认购方正富邦中证全指自由 现金流交易型开放式指数基金，并承诺至少持有1年以上，最终认购申请确认金额以基金注册登记机构 计算并确认的结果为准。方正富邦中证全指自由现金流交易型开放式指数基金，是首批获批的12家中证 全指自由现金流ETF之一，已于4月25日完成募集。 当前，世界经济格局正经历深刻变革，海外风险显著增加。美国发起的关税战等，加剧了逆全球化趋 势。中国企业不仅要应对国 ...

Group 1 - The overall market in Q1 exhibited a range-bound pattern, with a brief pullback at the beginning of the year, followed by a structural rally led by AI and robotics after the Spring Festival, supported by policy initiatives from the previous quarter [1] - The trade war may cause short-term disruptions to exports, but in the long term, tariffs will not hinder the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing, and the current allocation value of A-shares remains high, with incremental capital expected to continue increasing its allocation to Chinese equity assets [1] - The domestic photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 39.47 GW in January-February, a year-on-year growth of 7.49%, while the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries reached 73.6 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 46.5% [2] Group 2 - The uncertainty of overseas market policies impacted the market at both the beginning and end of the quarter, with a rebound in the tech sector as the technology gap between domestic and overseas markets narrowed significantly [3] - The upcoming second quarter will face significant uncertainty due to the impact of overseas tariff policies on global trade and supply chains, with a focus on corporate profitability during the earnings season [4] - Companies with healthy free cash flow are expected to have higher dividend potential and better safety in cash turnover under severe shocks, reflecting their operational resilience and pricing power [4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月28日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-04-25 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3295.06 | 9917.05 | 3786.99 | 11007.02 | 2675.23 | 1004.57 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.06 | 0.39 | 0.06 | 0.45 | 0.24 | 0.12 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4454.17 | 6681.49 | 2205.35 | 2466.36 | 2916.34 | 202.73 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ ( $\frac{\pi}{10}$) 宏观与策略 宏观周报:高技术制造业宏观周报-国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数走平 宏观周报:宏观经济宏观周报-高频指标环比改善，房地产景气上升 固定收益周报:超 ...

Group 1 - A total of 6 new funds were launched in just 3 trading days from April 28 to April 30, with 3 being passive index funds [2] - The largest fund launched last week was a medium to long-term pure bond fund with a first fundraising scale of nearly 6 billion yuan [5] - Public REITs have gained significant attention, with the Hua Tai Suzhou Heng Tai Rental Housing REIT seeing a record high in offline subscription [7] Group 2 - The new funds include the Dongfanghong Yufeng Return A, Zhonghai Technology Innovation A, and Huabao Zhongzheng Information Technology Application Innovation Industry (300832) Link A, all launched on April 28 [2] - The Dongfanghong Yufeng Return A is a mixed bond secondary fund managed by Ji Wenjing, who has nearly 18 years of experience in the securities industry [2][3] - The Zhonghai Technology Innovation fund focuses on the "technology innovation" sector, particularly in artificial intelligence and new generation information technology [3] Group 3 - The Huabao Zhongzheng Information Technology Application Innovation Industry Link A targets the Xinchuang ETF, covering key areas of the Xinchuang industry chain [3] - The Xinchuang Index has shown a cumulative return of 41.85% since its base date, with an annualized return of 5.10% as of March 31 [3] - The BlackRock Anze 60-Day Holding A fund is set to be issued on April 30, managed by Liu Xin, the Chief Fixed Income Investment Officer at BlackRock [4] Group 4 - The previous week saw 28 new funds established, with the largest being the Pu Yin An Sheng Pu Hang 3-Month Fixed Open Fund, which raised 5.999 billion yuan [5][8] - The second largest was the mixed bond primary fund Zhongou Stable Navigation 90-Day Holding A, which raised over 3 billion yuan [6] - The market is increasingly focused on high dividend and stable public REITs amid an "asset shortage" [7]

注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化 而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金 业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨 慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 今日，沪指低开低走，黄金、煤炭、地产、医药跌幅靠前，现金流ETF（159399）跌0.3%，成交额 超7000万元。截至4月25日，该ETF基金规模超34亿元居同类首位。 现金流ETF是以自由现金流作为选股因子的Smart Beta ETF，紧密跟踪富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦 指数，剔除金融和地产行业，优选自由现金流率最高的50只股票，为投资者筛选出了一批A股市场中的 "现金牛" 企业，为长期投资收益奠定了坚实基础。 国泰海通证券表示，全球金融风波 ...

Group 1 - The number of free cash flow themed ETFs has increased to 21 within approximately four months, with 18 of them already closed for subscription, collectively raising over 10 billion yuan [1][2] - Several ETFs, including those from Huatai-PB, Southern Fund, and Da Cheng Fund, were launched and closed for subscription on the same day, with initial subscription sizes ranging from 4.41 billion yuan to 19.09 billion yuan [2][3] - Individual investors dominate the subscription of these ETFs, with personal holdings exceeding 90% in several funds [3][4] Group 2 - The ETFs are linked to a diverse range of indices, including the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index and the CSI 800 Free Cash Flow Index, among others [4] - The current market includes three more free cash flow ETFs still in the subscription phase, with varying closing dates [3][4] - As of April 27, four free cash flow ETFs have been listed for trading, with some experiencing significant growth in scale compared to their initial offerings [5][6]

市场资金观点分歧， 建议配置上偏向均衡 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W17） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 27 日 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工定期报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W17)：市场资金观点分 歧，建议配置上偏向均衡 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 2 ...