大 类 资 产 配 置 相关研究 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 23 日 通胀预期升温，全球权益多数回调 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250614-20250620) 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 ⚫ 本周（20250614–20250620）。本周美联储维持利率不变符合市场预期，但是联储将今年个人消费支 出价格指数涨幅的预测中值从 3 月份的 2.7%升至 3%，显著高于美联储 2%的 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：周末美国袭击伊朗三处核设施，早间金价高开回落；美国三大股指收盘 涨跌不一，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.01%报98.7639；美债收益率 集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌1.59个基点报4.373%；COMEX黄金期货跌0.09%报 3384.4美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日美欧日PMI初值、美国5月成屋销售、美联储委员讲话、伊朗外长与俄 罗斯总统会谈。周末美国袭击伊朗三处核设施，中东局势紧张，早间金价高开回 落，黄金需求有限。沪金溢价维持至2元/克。中东局势依旧反复，但推动减弱，金 ...

上周五，由于中东战事的不确定性及其可能对全球经济造成的影响，美元指数创逾一个月最大周线涨幅。 虽然地缘政治风险上升为金价带来支撑，但美国通胀预期的上升和美联储的谨慎立场影响了市场对美联储今年降 息次数的预期，现货黄金上周五走势持稳。受美国空袭伊朗三大核设施、特朗普反问伊朗政权为何不能进行更迭 等因素影响，现货黄金周一高开。 WTI原油上周五开盘冲高回落，最终近乎回吐日内全部涨幅，收涨0.2%，报73.96美元/桶；受中东局势升级影 响，原油周一高开。 1.美国总统特朗普下令空袭伊朗核设施伊朗！伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡 周末，美国总统特朗普下令空袭伊朗核设施，国防部长赫格塞思表示美国基本摧毁了伊朗的核项目。 作为回应，伊朗议会通过一项提案，批准在必要时关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会 手中。 2.德黑兰爆发大规模反美反以抗议 当地时间6月22日下午，伊朗首都德黑兰市中心爆发大规模抗议活动，大批民众走上街头，谴责美国和以色列对伊 朗核设施发动袭击。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬也现身活动现场，表达对抗议民众的声援与支持。 3.美国国务卿：美国准备23日与伊朗对话 美国国务卿鲁比奥当地时间22日在接受 ...

这一举措恰逢中东局势升温之际，美国上周末对伊朗核设施实施军事打击，地缘政治风险推高国际油 价，加剧了市场对通胀抬头的担忧，给本就承压的超长期债券收益率带来新的上行压力。 东京债市周一早盘已现波动迹象：10年期国债收益率攀升2个基点至1.415%，国债价格应声下跌。市场 人士指出，当前形势较5月更为复杂：一方面，超长期债券供给缩减计划本应缓解供需失衡，但即将到 来的6月24日20年期国债拍卖、7月3日30年期国债拍卖仍被视作关键考验。 （原标题：中东战火推升通胀风险 日本财务省超预期削减长债发行稳收益率） 智通财经APP获悉，日本财务省宣布大幅削减超长期国债发行规模的消息引发市场关注。此次调整幅度 超出市场预期，计划到明年3月将20年、30年、40年期国债发行总量缩减3.2万亿日元，约合220亿美 元，较此前媒体获悉的草案方案翻倍。 回顾上月20年期国债拍卖遇冷曾引发日债收益率暴跌并波及全球市场，此次发行量腰斩式调整被解读为 财务省未雨绸缪之举。 冈三证券首席债券策略师长谷川直哉分析称："油价上涨与拍卖压力形成双重夹击，但发行计划修订至 少明确了超长债供需格局。"瑞穗证券首席策略师大森翔树更直言，财务省选择提前 ...

北京时间十九日凌晨，美联储宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在百分之四点二五到四点五不变，这是该行自去年十二月以来连续第四次暂停加息。尽管市场 对此次决议早有预期，但最新发布的利率预测"点阵图"却透露出政策制定者之间日益加深的分歧，为下半年货币政策走向增添变数。 美联储在政策声明中指出，尽管净出口波动对经济数据造成干扰，但近期指标显示美国经济活动仍在稳健扩张，美国失业率维持在低位，通胀水平则"仍然 略高"。值得注意的是，声明删除了此前关于"失业和通胀上升风险增加"的表述，转而强调经济前景的"不确定性有所减弱但仍处于较高水平"。这一微妙调 整反映出美联储对经济形势的评估趋于谨慎，但并未完全排除风险。 最新《经济预测摘要》(SEP)显示，美联储官员集体下调了今明两年经济增长预期，同时上调了美国通胀和失业率预测。具体来看，二零二五年美国GDP增 速预期中值从三月的百分之一点七下调至一点四，而同期核心PCE通胀预期则从百分之二点八上调至三点一。这种"增长放缓+通胀升温"的组合，使得美联 储在制定货币政策时面临更大的两难抉择。 点阵图显示，十九位政策制定者对今年年底利率预期的中位数仍维持在降息五十个基点（即两次二十五个基点的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Central Bank's recent decision to raise the benchmark interest rate to 15% has raised concerns among economists about the sustainability of federal debt and the need for effective fiscal reforms to alleviate pressure on public finances [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Impact - The Central Bank's monetary policy committee unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate, marking a new high and raising market concerns about debt sustainability [1]. - Approximately 47% of federal public debt is linked to floating rate bonds, with a total stock of 3.75 trillion Brazilian Reais. A 1% increase in interest rates will raise debt costs by 37.5 billion Reais within a year [1]. - The recent 0.25 percentage point increase is estimated to lead to an additional expenditure of about 12.1 billion Reais over the next 12 months [2]. Group 2: Debt Projections - The total federal debt could approach the set limit of 8.5 trillion Reais by the end of 2025, up from 7.3 trillion Reais at the end of 2024, due to rising financing needs and increased borrowing costs [2]. - Interest payments on federal domestic currency debt are projected to reach 540.43 billion Reais over the next 12 months at current interest rates [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Concerns - Economists express that the tightening of monetary policy reflects market concerns over the ongoing expansion of fiscal policy, which exacerbates inflationary pressures [2][3]. - The reliance on debt to pay interest has created a vicious cycle, with warnings that without achieving a basic fiscal surplus, total debt will continue to rise [3]. - The urgency for coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is increasingly evident as Brazil faces the dual challenges of high interest rates and high debt levels [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's probability of maintaining interest rates in July dropped from 91.7% to 83.5% due to recent dovish comments from Governor Waller, indicating internal disagreements within the Fed regarding interest rate policies [1][3] - The Fed revised its GDP growth forecast for this year down from 1.7% to 1.4%, while increasing inflation expectations, suggesting a complex economic environment [3] - Trump's pressure on the Fed has led to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with a current probability of around 60% for a rate cut in September [5] Group 2 - The U.S. national debt exceeds $30 trillion, and a 1% reduction in interest rates could save approximately $300 billion in interest payments annually, but potential inflation could counteract these savings [3] - Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and commitment to economic stability, indicating that political pressures are unlikely to alter the Fed's policy direction [4] - Investors are advised to focus on fundamental data and long-term industry trends rather than short-term interest rate fluctuations influenced by political rhetoric [5]

Labor Market - The U.S. unemployment rate in May was 4.2%, remaining stable and at historical lows since mid-last year [2] - Average monthly job additions in the first five months of the year were 124,000, down from 168,000 last year [2] - The employment cost index for private sector workers showed a 12-month increase of 3.4% as of March, down from a peak of 5.5% in mid-2022 [2] - Labor supply growth has slowed compared to previous years, with a notable decrease in immigration since mid-last year [2] Inflation Analysis - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.1% year-over-year in April, down from 2.6% at the end of last year [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.5% year-over-year in April, down from 2.9% at the end of last year [3] - Short-term inflation expectations have risen significantly this year, primarily due to tariff concerns, while most long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the Fed's 2% target [3] Economic Activity - U.S. economic activity paused in the first quarter, with a real GDP annualized growth rate of -0.2%, largely due to a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases [4] - Consumer spending growth has slowed this year, with a real growth rate of approximately 1% in the first quarter, compared to robust growth rates of around 3% expected for 2023 and 2024 [5] Financial Market Conditions - Short- and medium-term nominal Treasury yields have moderately declined this year, reflecting a significant drop in real yields [6] - The market anticipates that the federal funds rate will decrease by over 100 basis points to 3.3% by the end of 2026 [6] - The overall financial system remains resilient despite significant volatility in April, with total debt of households and non-financial corporations continuing to decline as a percentage of GDP, now at the lowest level in 20 years [6] International Situation - Foreign economic activity is expected to moderately expand in the first quarter of 2025, supported by increased demand from U.S. importers ahead of anticipated tariff hikes [7] - Recent indicators show a slowdown in foreign growth, with many foreign economies experiencing significant declines in business conditions and confidence this year [7] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed continues to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities while slowing the pace of reductions to facilitate a smooth transition to ample reserve balances [9] - The Fed is committed to supporting full employment and returning inflation to the 2% target, carefully evaluating upcoming data and evolving risks when considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate [9] - The report indicates a cautious monetary policy stance by the Fed, balancing inflation pressures with the need to maintain labor market stability while monitoring uncertainties in domestic and international economic developments [9]

【冠通研究】 多重因素交织，盘面下探阻力位 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 20 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜盘面低开低走午后盘面下挫，特朗普将在两周内决定是否攻击伊朗，冲突 有所放缓，但原油价格整体上扬，通胀预期增加，特朗普连续两日要求美联储降息，目 前依然保持年内降息两次的预期。美联储降息后续将影响美元指数走向，指引有色市场 的价格趋势。基本面方面，供给端精铜矿港口库存本周大幅去化，月内铜进口量同样下 降，国内端除进口缩减外，冶炼厂成本费同样加剧市场偏紧预期。需求端，下游开工率 放缓拿货积极性不足，成交量边际走弱，终端电线电缆保持韧性，但家电行业排产缩 水，进入高温阶段，房地产也形成拖累。综合来看，基本面维持供应偏紧预期及需求边 际走弱的逻辑，中东局势暂不明朗，铜关税问题尚未落地，美联储议息按兵不动，市场 不确定性较强，现货行情走弱，期货下探阻力位置，预计沪铜短期震荡偏弱。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 期货方面：沪铜盘面低开高走小幅收跌。报收于 77990，前二十名多单量 119268 手，-3684 手；空 ...

宏观经济分析报告 | | 政策动向等待数据确认 | | --- | --- | | | -宏观经济周报 | | 分析师:周喜 | SAC NO: S1150511010017 2025年6月20日 | | 证券分析师 . | 就外围环境而言,美国方面,尽管与 GDP 联系更为密切的"控制组"零售销 | | 周喜 | 售 5 月环比增速较此前有所改善,但在前期抢购热潮消退下,整体零售销 | | 022-28451972 | | | zhouxi@bhzq.com | 售环比增速还是现近 1 年以来最大降幅,特别是汽车销售成为主要拖累。 | | | 另外,代表服务业的餐厅和酒吧销售额环比增速也出现大幅下降。中美临时 | | 宋亦威 | 关税协议有助于短期消费者情绪缓和,但更实质的劳动力市场走弱风险仍 | | SAC NO: S1150514080001 | 会给消费带来压力。同样,5月工业产出也释放出经济放缓的信号,剔除波 | | 022-23861608 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 动较大的汽车制造业外的其他制造业产出环比增速连续两月下滑,尚在讨 | 研 究 报 F 周 报 有色金属价格涨跌 ...