周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 中美贸易风波再起，美元高位震荡 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好下降，股市多数下跌，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率回落至 4.03%。美元指数涨 1.28%至 98.9，非美货币悉 数贬值，离岸人民币跌 0.12%，欧元跌 1.06%，英镑跌 0.9%，日 元跌 2.52%，瑞郎跌 0.48%，雷亚尔跌 3.44%，新西兰元、澳 元、贬值约 2%，兰特、韩元、比索 泰铢跌超 1%，金价涨 3.4% 至 4018 美元/盎司，VIX 指数回升至 21.66，现货商品指数收 跌，布油跌 2.8%至 64.48 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 美国政府在 10 月 1 日正式停摆，两党目前仍然未能就支出达成 一致，15 日军队发薪日成为关键时间节点，随着政府停摆时间 的延长，两党面临的压力都在增加，同时美国 9 月非农就业报 告和首申数据未能如期公布，经济也将受到拖累。中美贸易摩 擦再度升级，中国宣布对稀土出口进行管制后，美国总统特朗 普表示 11 月 1 日起要对中国商品再度加征 100%关税，即将到来 的 APEC 会 ...

美国密歇根大学10日发布的调查数据显示，10月份美国消费者信心指数初值下降，跌至五个月以来低 点。 美国密歇根大学发布的调查数据显示，10月份美国消费者信心指数初值，从9月的55.1降至55，触及5个 月来低点，为连续第三个月下滑。 分析指出，眼下高物价和就业前景低迷仍是美国民众最关心的问题，他们普遍认为短期内情况难以出现 实质性改善。密歇根大学的调查显示，消费者对未来一年通胀预期仍维持在4.6％的高位，长期通胀预 期也稳定在3.7％，二者均远高于美联储2％的政策目标。美联储在9月的议息会议纪要中指出，预计关 税上调将推高今年通胀，到2026年还将进一步加剧通胀压力。与此同时，美国就业市场降温态势明显。 同一项调查显示，仍有近半数美国家庭预计明年就业形势将继续恶化。 （来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 ...

（央视财经《天下财经》）美国密歇根大学10日发布的调查数据显示，10月份美国消费者信心指数初值 下降，跌至五个月以来低点。 分析指出，眼下高物价和就业前景低迷仍是美国民众最关心的问题，他们普遍认为短期内情况难以出现 实质性改善。密歇根大学的调查显示，消费者对未来一年通胀预期仍维持在4.6%的高位，长期通胀预 期也稳定在3.7%，二者均远高于美联储2%的政策目标。美联储在9月的议息会议纪要中指出，预计关税 上调将推高今年通胀，到2026年还将进一步加剧通胀压力。与此同时，美国就业市场降温态势明显。同 一项调查显示，仍有近半数美国家庭预计明年就业形势将继续恶化。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：王昕宇 美国密歇根大学发布的调查数据显示，10月份美国消费者信心指数初值，从9月的55.1降至55，触及5个 月来低点，为连续第三个月下滑。 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On October 11, gold prices reached a historical high, with multiple jewelry stores pricing gold ornaments around 1180 CNY per gram, and the highest price recorded at 1183 CNY per gram by Lao Miao [1] - Investment gold bars are priced between 933 to 939 CNY per gram, while silver is priced at 11.52 CNY per gram [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to global economic and political uncertainties, including dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The preliminary consumer confidence index for October from the University of Michigan is 55.0, slightly above the expected 54.2 but down from 55.1 in September [2] - The one-year inflation expectation decreased from 4.7% in September to 4.6%, while the five-year inflation expectation remained stable at 3.7% [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has entered its tenth day, beginning to have a more severe impact on short-term economic outlooks, with signs of cooling in the labor market [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Current domestic gold price is 910 CNY per gram, with international gold priced at 4018 USD per ounce [3] - Platinum is priced at 1620 USD per ounce, palladium at 1450 USD per ounce, and silver at 50.25 USD per ounce [3] Group 4: Brand-Specific Gold Prices - Major jewelry brands have reported increases in gold prices, with Lao Miao at 1183 CNY per gram, and other brands like Liufu and Chow Tai Fook at 1180 CNY per gram [4] - The lowest price reported is from Caibai Jewelry at 1110 CNY per gram [4] Group 5: Precious Metal Recycling Prices - Today's gold recycling price is 903 CNY per gram, with platinum at 344 CNY per gram and palladium at 305 CNY per gram [5] - Silver recycling price is 10.27 CNY per gram, while 14K and 18K gold are priced at 518 CNY and 668 CNY per gram respectively [5] Group 6: Hong Kong Gold Market - The current gold price in Hong Kong is reported at 37352 HKD per tael, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Liufu all pricing their gold ornaments at 44530 HKD per tael [6]

Group 1 - China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations at over 5.3%, indicating strong long-term growth potential despite short-term structural disparities in the economy [1] - The real estate sector remains a significant drag on domestic demand, as it holds a high share in residents' wealth allocation, impacting consumption sources [1] - The article emphasizes the need to stabilize housing prices and explores variables that could indicate when housing prices are stabilized [1] Group 2 - The concepts of rental yield and price-to-rent ratio are introduced, with rental yield measuring the annual rental income relative to the property's sale price [2] - A common belief is that if rental yields exceed government bond rates, properties become more attractive, but historical examples from the U.S. and Japan show this logic may not hold true [2][5] - The article argues that housing is akin to "credit bonds," where price fluctuations affect perceived value, unlike stable government bonds [5] Group 3 - The return on investment in real estate comes from both rental income and capital gains, with expectations of price increases diminishing the importance of rental yields [6] - When housing price expectations are low, rental yields must be significantly higher to compensate for potential price declines and associated costs [6] - The article draws parallels between real estate and stock market behaviors, noting that both markets react similarly to investor expectations [7] Group 4 - The analysis of 13 economies reveals that once housing prices enter a downward cycle, valuations tend to revert to historical lows, similar to stock market trends [7] - Stabilizing housing prices requires more than just increasing rental yields; it necessitates managing price expectations, which are influenced by macroeconomic inflation expectations [7][8] - Recent macroeconomic policies in China have focused on boosting expectations and inflation, which could positively impact housing price stability in the future [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, which surpassed $4,000, is attributed to several factors, including debt crises, currency risks, and inflation expectations, while also highlighting the relationship between gold and U.S. equities [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Increase - The U.S. is facing a significant debt crisis, with 2024 fiscal spending projected to exceed revenue by 40%, necessitating bond issuance to cover the deficit [2]. - Concerns over currency risks have emerged, particularly regarding the potential restructuring of the Federal Reserve under political pressure, which could threaten the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [3]. - Inflation expectations are being questioned, as many developed economies are moving away from prolonged inflation post-pandemic, challenging the traditional view of gold as an inflation hedge [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold for 15 consecutive years, with a reported net purchase of 166 tons in Q2 2025, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [4][5]. - As of October 2025, global official gold reserves reached $4.64 trillion, a 52.9% increase from the end of 2024, with gold now surpassing U.S. Treasury securities as the largest reserve asset [4][5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which peaked at $8.9 trillion in June 2022, has been reduced to approximately $6.6 trillion, yet remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, contributing to ongoing market dynamics [5]. - The recent surge in gold prices is largely driven by financial investments, particularly through gold ETFs, which saw a record net inflow of $26 billion in Q3 2025 [5][6]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - Despite gold not generating yield, the psychological expectation of continued price increases has led to increased investment in gold as a speculative asset [7].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index recording their largest single-day drop since April [1][2] - Major technology stocks fell sharply, with Nvidia dropping 4.89%, resulting in a market value loss of $228.7 billion (approximately 163.18 billion RMB) [1][2] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,479.60, down 878.82 points (1.90%) [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 182.60 points (2.71%) to 6,552.51 [2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 820.20 points (3.56%) to 22,204.43 [2] Sector Performance - Semiconductor and cryptocurrency stocks led the declines, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 6.32% [2] - Notable declines included Circle down over 11%, Arm down over 9%, and AMD, Qualcomm, and Coinbase each down over 7% [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks also saw widespread declines, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling 6.10% [3] - Individual stocks such as Daqo New Energy and Global Data fell over 14% and 13%, respectively [3] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index for October from the University of Michigan was reported at 55, the lowest since May, with a previous value of 55.1 [3][4] - Consumer sentiment regarding personal finances and the business environment improved, but expectations for future finances declined [3] Inflation Expectations - Short-term inflation expectations decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term expectations remained stable at 3.7% [4] Government Layoffs - The U.S. government has begun layoffs as part of a plan to reduce federal government size, with the Department of Education and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) confirming staff reductions [4][5]

Core Insights - The October consumer confidence index in the U.S. has declined for the third consecutive month, reflecting growing public concern over the economic outlook amid government shutdown, high inflation expectations, and slowing job growth [1][2] - The current index is significantly lower than levels seen in early 2025 and before the return of former President Trump, nearing lows observed during the inflation peak in 2021 [1] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year have slightly decreased from 4.7% in September to 4.6%, still above the current actual inflation rate of 2.9% [1] Economic Context - Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, making changes in consumer confidence a significant indicator of overall economic trends [2] - Historical data shows that government shutdowns, while having limited direct economic impact, often lead to significant declines in consumer confidence [2] - The ongoing government shutdown has entered its 10th day, causing key economic indicators to be suspended, making the Michigan survey a crucial alternative for gauging economic direction [1][2] Political and Monetary Policy Implications - The U.S. economy is currently in a sensitive phase with slowing hiring rates, uncontrolled inflation, and rising recession risks [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that policymakers are attempting to guide the economy through a "challenging situation" during this turbulent period [2] - Analysts warn that if the government shutdown continues and consumer confidence weakens further, it may suppress household spending willingness, posing downward pressure on economic growth [2]

Market Performance - Chinese concept stocks showed overall weak performance, with the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index, Wind Chinese Stocks 100 Index, and Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index all declining over 2% [2] - The Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index is currently at 4732.44, down 3.06%, while the Wind Chinese Stocks 100 Index is at 3267.28, down 2.96% [3] Futures and Commodities - The FTSE China A50 Index futures experienced a sharp drop, currently down 1.14% [2] - As of the latest update, WTI crude oil fell over 3%, reaching a new low since early May, while Brent crude oil dropped over 2%, currently priced at $63.60 per barrel [5] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, with a previous value of 55.1 and an estimate of 54.2 [6] - Consumer sentiment regarding current personal financial situations and the business environment for the next year has improved, but expectations for future personal finances and current purchasing conditions for durable goods have declined, leading to a net neutral outlook [7] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed an open attitude towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting, citing concerns over a possibly negative employment growth trend [8] - Waller emphasized that the labor market is a key concern and that the decision-making process should remain cautious [8]

Market Overview - On October 10, U.S. stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 878.82 points (1.9%), the Nasdaq dropping by 820.20 points (3.56%), and the S&P 500 decreasing by 182.60 points (2.71%). This marked the largest single-day drop for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 since April [1][2]. Technology Sector - Major technology stocks saw widespread declines, with Broadcom down nearly 6%, Tesla falling over 5%, and Amazon dropping close to 5%. Notably, Nvidia's stock price fell to $183.16, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $228.7 billion (approximately 1.63 trillion yuan) [2]. Semiconductor and Cryptocurrency Stocks - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted by 6.32%, with significant losses in stocks such as Circle (down over 11%), Arm (down over 9%), and AMD, Qualcomm, and Coinbase each down over 7%. Bitcoin also saw a sharp decline, dropping below $110,000 with a 24-hour decrease of 9.16% [4][5]. Commodity Markets - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.58% to $4,035.5 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 3.15%. In contrast, WTI crude oil futures fell by 4.24% to $58.90 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 3.25% [7]. Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October was reported at 55, the lowest since May, slightly above the forecast of 54.2. The index reflects mixed sentiments regarding personal financial situations and future economic conditions [11].