Core Insights - Tokyo's CPI has declined for two consecutive months, with energy prices falling significantly and food price increases slowing down, while service prices continue to rise moderately [1][9] - The core CPI stands at 2.0%, exactly at the central bank's target, which may lead to a more cautious approach from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate hikes [1][9] Inflation Trends - January's Tokyo core CPI (excluding fresh food) increased by 2.0%, below the expected 2.2% and down from the previous 2.3% [4] - The overall Tokyo CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) rose by 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.6% and the previous 2.6% [4] - The overall Tokyo CPI increased by 1.5%, below the expected 1.7% and the previous 2% [4] - The decline in CPI indicates a reduction in inflationary pressure across Japan [4][10] Energy Price Impact - Energy prices have significantly contributed to the inflation slowdown, with gasoline prices dropping by 14.8% year-on-year, a substantial increase from the previous month's decline of 6.4% [5] - Overall energy prices fell by 4.2%, contributing negatively to inflation by 0.22 percentage points [5] - Month-on-month data shows gasoline prices decreased by 4.8%, electricity prices fell by 0.1%, and city gas prices dropped by 0.6% [5] Food Price Trends - Food price increases have continued to slow, with prices (excluding fresh food) rising by 5.6% in January, down from 6.2% the previous month [6] - The contribution of food prices to overall inflation decreased from 1.43 percentage points to 1.30 percentage points [6] - Fresh vegetable prices fell by 13.2%, with cabbage prices plummeting by 64.4% and fresh fruit prices down by 10.8% [7] Service Price Stability - Service prices have continued to support inflation, with residential rents increasing by 1.5%, and private rents rising by 2.1%, contributing 0.08 percentage points to overall inflation [8] - Communication costs rose by 6.4%, driven by an 11.0% increase in mobile communication fees, contributing 0.15 percentage points to inflation [8] - Education and entertainment service prices increased by 2.2%, with accommodation costs rising by 6.0%, although this was a slowdown from the previous month's 7.8% [8] Central Bank Policy Implications - The comprehensive slowdown in Tokyo's inflation data may influence the Bank of Japan's policy stance, with the core inflation rate at the target level but showing a cooling trend [9] - Seasonally adjusted month-on-month data indicates that CPI (excluding fresh food) remained flat compared to the previous month, suggesting weakened short-term inflation momentum [9] - The Tokyo CPI is viewed as a leading indicator for national inflation, with the trends expected to be confirmed in upcoming national data releases [10]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's indifference towards the dollar may backfire, undermining his economic plans and potentially leading to the Republican Party losing its majority in the House of Representatives [1] Group 1: Economic Implications - Continuous depreciation of the dollar could trigger further inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates as Trump desires [1] - There is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates instead of lowering them due to the inflationary pressures caused by a weak dollar [1]

这个问题听起来很简单，但真正要回答好它，需要考虑很多维度。因为"合格"这个标准，对不同的人来说是完全不一样的。有人月入3000块，有人月入30万 块，他们的存款标准肯定不会相同。所以与其说有一个绝对的数字标准，不如说有一个相对的衡量体系。 我们先从一个基础的逻辑开始。人的一生大概分为几个阶段。从22岁大学毕业到40岁，这是18年的时间。这18年里，一个人应该经历什么？初入职场的迷 茫、工作能力的提升、收入的逐步增加、家庭的建立和完善。18年的时间听起来很长，但分到每一年、每一个月，其实也没有多少。 有个财务规划师曾经给出过一个概念，叫做"生命周期储蓄率"。意思是说，一个人在不同的人生阶段，应该把收入的不同比例存下来。在20多岁的时候，可 能没有太多责任，存10%左右就够了。到了30岁左右，往往已经有了家庭，需要存20%到30%。到了40岁，这个比例应该更高，大概在30%到40%。 按照这个标准来算，一个月入8000块的40岁中年人，应该每个月存2400到3200块。20年的职业生涯里，假设收入有所增长，平均每月存个3000块，累积下来 应该是72万块。如果收入增长得快一些，存款可能是100万到200万。如果收 ...

The Fed last paused interest rates in September 2023, holding the funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50% after a rapid tightening cycle aimed at curbing post-pandemic inflation.After the December rate cut, Powell said that the lowering of rates brought monetary policy “within a broad range of neutral.”The two goals often conflict, operate on different timelines and are influenced by unpredictable global events.The Fed’s dual congressional mandate requires it to balance inflation and job growth via interest rates.The ...

最近这两年，大家对汇率这个词恐怕都听得耳朵起茧子了。眼看着人民币兑美元的汇率像坐过山车一 样，特别是那会儿冲到7.35的时候，多少做外贸的心里发慌，多少想换汇留学或者旅游的心里在那滴 血。 当时那个氛围挺压抑的，好像这人民币还得接着跌，深不见底似的。但这个7点多的汇率，它不是常 态，而是被硬生生"拉"上去的。这背后的推手是谁？不用说大家也知道，是美联储。 强弩之末的美元加息，触及了贬值的极限边界 先说之前那个7.35是怎么来的。这其实就是美国为了治他们国内那要命的通货膨胀，下了一剂猛药。美 联储把基准利率一口气干到了5.5%左右，这基本上是二十多年来的最高水平了。 美元利息那么高，全世界的钱都跟长了腿似的，拼命往美国跑，去吃那个无风险的高利息。钱都去买美 元了，非美货币自然就得跌，人民币在那一波里头贬值，其实就是这么被动承压的结果。 但是，凡事它都有个度，有个物理极限。美国加息加到这个份上，其实已经是在钢丝上跳舞了。且不说 他们自己的银行业能不能扛得住这么高的资金成本，就是那个庞大的美债利息，也够喝一壶的。 所以说，这5.5%的美元利率，基本上就是顶了天了。既然美元的强势攻势已经到了强弩之末，那它对 人民币造 ...

Ukraine's central bank cut its key interest rate to 15% on Thursday, from 15.5%, due to slowing inflation and more clarity over international financial aid this year, it said in a statement. ...

Core Viewpoint - In the post-pandemic era, Chinese residents' savings willingness has surged, with total deposits reaching an astonishing 9.9 trillion yuan in Q1 2023, averaging 3.3 trillion yuan per month, driven by risk aversion and future concerns [1] Group 1: Reasons for Increased Savings - The first reason for increased savings is the unpredictable risks associated with investment channels such as stocks, funds, and real estate, making bank deposits a safer option [3] - The second reason is the desire to accumulate sufficient funds to prepare for potential risks like unemployment, illness, and retirement, as families feel insecure without a certain amount of cash [3] Group 2: Concerns About Holding Cash - Holding large amounts of cash may lead to difficulties due to inflation eroding purchasing power, with current price levels significantly higher than in the past [5] - Investment channels are limited, with the real estate market under pressure and fund investments carrying loss risks, making it hard for many to keep up with inflation through bank deposits [5] - Continuous decline in deposit interest rates since the second half of 2021 has exacerbated anxiety among cash holders, as rates above 4% are now rare [5] Group 3: Counterarguments to Cash Holding Concerns - Holding substantial cash provides a sense of security and ensures a stable living condition over time, contrasting with those without savings who face greater challenges amid rising prices [7] - Current bubbles in real estate and stock markets suggest that cautious investors may choose to wait for market adjustments before making investments, preserving their wealth [7] - For risk-tolerant investors, a diversified asset allocation strategy remains viable, allowing for a mix of bank deposits, government bonds, and equity funds to mitigate risks while seeking higher returns [9] Group 4: Conclusion - Holding cash is not inherently negative; a rational investment mindset and proper asset allocation are essential for wealth preservation and growth in a complex economic environment [10]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views - The report presents a wide - ranging overview of overnight market trends across various asset classes including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, along with important macro, industry - specific, and geopolitical news that could potentially impact these markets [5][34][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 6.46% at $5411.00/oz and COMEX silver up 10.06% at $116.62/oz due to Fed's signals and market speculation on the chairperson [5] - Crude oil prices increased, with WTI up 1.78% at $63.5/barrel and Brent up 1.56% at $67.63/barrel, driven by supply - related concerns [5] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME tin up 3.52%, LME aluminum up 1.59%, LME nickel up 1.12% [5] - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with fuel oil, asphalt etc. up over 1%, while ethylene glycol, corn etc. slightly down [7] Important Information Macro - information - By the end of 2025, China's total installed power generation capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, up 16.1% year - on - year [9] - Yichun lifted the heavy pollution weather yellow alert on January 28, 2026 [10] - As of December 2025, there were 150 futures companies in China, with a trading volume of 992 million lots and an operating income of 4.918 billion yuan in December [10] - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate broke through 7 at the end of 2025, and it is expected to remain stable in 2026 [10] - Trump warned Iran, and the US may face another partial government shutdown [10][11] - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark rate at 2.25% [13] - The US Treasury Secretary expressed views on Fed's policy and the exchange - rate policy [13] - The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - The 2026 potash market is expected to see increased supply and stable prices [16] - As of January 28, 2026, China's methanol port inventory was 1.4721 million tons, up 14,600 tons [16] - UAE's Fujairah port's refined oil inventory increased by 2.012 million barrels to 23.369 million barrels in the week ending January 26, 2026 [18] - US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels in the week ending January 23 [18] Metal Futures - Guinea's bauxite exports in 2025 increased 25% year - on - year to 182.8 million tons [20] - Thailand's central bank restricted gold trading to manage the Thai baht exchange rate [20] - CME adjusted margin parameters for some silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts [20] - China's polysilicon production is expected to decline significantly in January and February [20] - Russian Norilsk Nickel's 2025 and 2026 production forecasts for nickel and palladium were released [21] - Multiple exchanges adjusted margin and price - limit ratios for precious and base metal futures contracts [23][24] - A large smelting enterprise in Henan reduced production by 30% due to fog warnings [25] - Two zinc mines in Southwest China plan to reduce production in February [25] Black - series Futures - Two iron ore units of Vale were suspended, with an annual output of about 8 million tons [28] - As of January 28, national building materials production decreased, while inventories increased [28] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise coke prices on January 30 [29] Agricultural Product Futures - Argentina's drought may reduce 2025/26 crop yields [31] - Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 25, 2026 decreased 14.81% compared to the same period last month [31] - CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased 12.08% in the week ending January 23 [31] Financial Market Financial - A - shares fluctuated, with resource stocks rising and the photovoltaic industry chain adjusting [34] - The Hang Seng Index rose to a new high since August 2021 [34] - In 2025, Chinese public security cracked down on major securities crimes [35] - By the end of December 2025, China's public funds reached a new high of 37.7 trillion yuan [35] - The first CSI A500ETF was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [35] Industry - The withdrawal of "zombie" Chinese patent medicine approvals will not impact the market [37] - China's installed power generation capacity increased by 16.1% by the end of 2025 [37] - Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators [37] - China approved two medical device industry standards [37] - Three ministries issued 18 policies to support the elderly - care service industry [37] - A football "match - fixing" news conference will be held [38] - A Shenzhen gold platform faced a payment crisis [38] - The demand for solid - state batteries in humanoid robots is expected to exceed 74GWh by 2035 [40] Overseas - Trump threatened Iran, and Iran is on high alert [41] - India reported two Nipah virus cases with low spread risk [41] - Germany lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1% [41] - The Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates if the outlook is as expected [42] - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark rate at 2.25% [42] - South Korea's former first - lady was sentenced to 1 year and 8 months [43] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.01%, and the Nasdaq up 0.17% [44] - European stocks fell due to Trump's threat to Iran [44] - Most Asian - Pacific stocks rose, except for the Indonesian index which tumbled [45] - SpaceX may launch an IPO in mid - June with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion [45] - Microsoft, Meta, and other companies reported strong earnings [45][46] Commodities - Exchanges tightened risk - control measures for futures contracts [49] - International precious metals and crude oil prices rose, while base metals mostly increased [49][50][51] Bonds - Chinese treasury bond futures rose on Wednesday, and the Ministry of Finance completed a treasury cash management deposit auction [52][53] - The National Development Bank issued RMB 5.5 billion of bonds in Macau [54] - Japan's 40 - year treasury bond auction had a high bid - to - cover ratio [54] - US treasury bond yields showed mixed performance [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB/USD exchange rate rose, and China signed a RMB clearing agreement with Sri Lanka [56] - The yen depreciated against the dollar, and Thailand's central bank restricted gold trading [56] - The US dollar index rose 0.63% [57] Upcoming Events - There are multiple central bank interest - rate decisions, news conferences, and corporate earnings announcements scheduled for the day [59]

会议纪要显示，现有指标表明，就业增长仍处于低位，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀水平仍处 于较高水平。委员会致力于实现最大就业和长期通胀率达到2%的目标。经济前景的不确定性仍然很 高。委员会密切关注其双重使命面临的风险。为支持其目标，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续 维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。 不降息！美联储宣布维持基准利率不变 当地时间1月28日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。 伊朗副外长：做好200%的自卫准备 伊朗副外长加里巴巴迪28日表示，伊朗的首要任务是"做好200%的自卫准备"。加里巴巴迪说，美国和 以色列清楚伊朗会如何回应。"如果他们采取有限的军事行动，伊朗将会作出适当的回应。" 在此次利率政策出台前，市场普遍预期美联储将在本周政策会议上维持利率不变，此前该机构已在2025 下半年连续三次降息。 加里巴巴迪（上图）说，伊朗会兼顾考虑外交和战争，但会更重视战争的可能性，"我们应为最坏情况 做好准备，随时保卫国家，而不是被他们的外交说辞所蒙蔽"。 加里巴巴迪否认伊朗和美国之间正在进行任 ...

All right, folks. Let's bring in Qi Research CEO, chief strategist Daniel D. Martino Booth.All right, let's just talk about what we know so far. Uh, two big bombshells, the denters also shifting from jobs back to being concerned about inflation. >> Yeah, I don't think I understand that.I mean, if you're if you're watching uh prices in real time, true inflation, tru, which we've spoken about many times, came in this morning at 1.15%. >> It's infall. It's in freef fall. >> It is and it has been in freef fall. ...