Group 1: Report Core Views - The supply and demand still suppress oil prices, but short - term geopolitical trends support oil prices, with a short - term low - level bullish mindset for oil [1] - The risk - aversion sentiment rises again, gold rebounds slightly, and the US dollar index has increased downward pressure, which is bullish for gold. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - China's rubber inventory continues to decline, and the tire operating rate increases, driving the market upward. A low - level bullish mindset is adopted for rubber [3] - PTA has many maintenance expectations, low polyester inventory, and poor polyester operating load. It is advisable to follow the upward trend of crude oil and take a low - level bullish operation [3] - The futures price of lithium carbonate continues the oscillating and strengthening trend. In October, although the supply increases steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will lead to a tight supply situation [4] - The demand for steel products recovers this week, the supply - demand contradiction eases, and the high cost supports steel prices. Steel prices may oscillate in the short term [5] - The supply - demand structure of coking coal is tight in the short term, and the market sentiment is positive. Coking coal prices are expected to continue to rise slightly [5] - After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the stock market may react in the short term. The bond market operation is difficult, with a medium - term slightly bearish oscillating mindset [6] - Although silver follows gold's decline, due to the almost certain interest rate cut in October, the decline of silver is limited. It is long - term bullish, short - term oscillating, and there are opportunities to go long [6] - The upward trend of national hog prices slows down. After the oscillating adjustment, there may be a bullish expectation. Hog futures prices stop falling and rebound, maintaining a bottom - oscillating and rebounding pattern [7] - The production of Malaysian palm oil increases, and the inventory pressure increases. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. Palm oil will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the short term [7] - The spot market of imported soybeans is strong, and domestic demand is strong. Bean No. 2 oscillates and stabilizes, and Bean No. 1 maintains a bullish pattern [8] - The domestic methanol operating rate is high, the downstream demand is stable, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] - The float glass operation is stable, the inventory rises, and the downstream demand is weak. The domestic soda ash market oscillates weakly and stably, and the soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene eases slightly, the demand - side operating rate rises slightly, and the inventory decreases. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] Group 2: Specific Product Data and Analysis Crude Oil - On October 23, the US imposed new sanctions on Russia, and a US B - 1B bomber approached the Venezuelan coast [1] Gold - Putin said that US sanctions on Russia would not have a major impact on the Russian economy, and the US - Russia meeting was postponed [1] Rubber - In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 103.487 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. From January to September, the production increased by 1.5% year - on - year to 8.99386 billion. The tire capacity utilization rate continued to rise [3] PTA - PTA social inventory is 314.13 million tons, a decrease of 5.03 million tons from the previous period. PTA capacity utilization rate is 75.98%, and polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 87.51% [3] Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 74,821 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 458 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,800 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 450 yuan/ton [4] Steel and Coking Coal - As of October 23, the weekly output of rebar was 2.0707 million tons, an increase of 59,100 tons from last week. The factory inventory was 1.8463 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The social inventory was 4.3748 million tons, a decrease of 189,300 tons from last week [5] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal was 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period [5] Bonds - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee announced the goal of achieving significant leaps in various strengths and reaching the level of medium - developed countries in per capita GDP by 2035 [6] Silver - Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24 to 27 [6] Hog - On October 23, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 17.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6% from the previous day [7] Palm Oil - From October 1 - 20 in Malaysia, the production of crude palm oil increased by 10.77% compared with the same period last month [7] Soybean - The IGC predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will decrease by 1 million tons year - on - year to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, and the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons [8] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of methanol is 87.4%, a decrease of 2.13%. The downstream total capacity utilization rate is 75.11%, a weekly decrease of 1.53% [10] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash nationwide is 1,271 yuan/ton. The weekly output of soda ash is 740,500 tons, a decrease of 3.93%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7021 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.09% [11] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6,597 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is 75.01%, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for three weeks, becoming the second-longest shutdown in history. The two parties remain deadlocked over the upcoming expiration of medical subsidies, and the total U.S. federal government debt has exceeded $38 trillion, providing potential safe-haven support [2]. - The market's expectation of loose policies from Japan's new political party has strengthened, pushing the U.S. dollar to continue to strengthen in the short term, which may continue to suppress the gold price [2]. - Looking ahead, there are many uncertainties in the macro - environment. The London gold price still has strong buying support at the $4000 mark, but subsequent correction risks should be guarded against. The short - term trend of gold and silver will mainly be wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the U.S. CPI data released on Friday. If the CPI is stronger than expected, it may weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts and lead to a further correction in the gold price. The trading range for the SHFE Gold 2512 contract is 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE Gold main contract was 942.28 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.28 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE Silver main contract was 11467 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 63 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of SHFE Gold were 189131 lots, a decrease of 3672 lots; the main contract positions of SHFE Silver were 377229 lots, a decrease of 9004 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 holders of the SHFE Gold main contract were 109168 lots, a decrease of 1528 lots; the net positions of the top 20 holders of the SHFE Silver main contract were 97767 lots, an increase of 135 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 663366 kilograms, a decrease of 28322 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 938 yuan/gram, a decrease of 5.5 yuan; the spot price of silver was 11360 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 57 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SHFE Gold main contract was - 4.28 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.78 yuan; the basis of the SHFE Silver main contract was - 107 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 1052.37 tons, a decrease of 6.29 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15597.61 tons, a decrease of 79.03 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266749 contracts, an increase of 339 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 52276 contracts, an increase of 738 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 33.48%, an increase of 5.33 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 24.5%, an increase of 3.17 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 31.86%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 31.86%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 22 days, becoming the second - longest shutdown in history. The two parties are deadlocked over medical subsidies, and it may last until November [2]. - U.S. President Trump cancelled his meeting with Russian President Putin in Budapest. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil producer [2]. - India and the U.S. are about to reach a trade agreement, potentially reducing the tariff on Indian goods exported to the U.S. from about 50% to 15% - 16% [2]. - There are signs of a缓和 in international trade relations, and there are rumors that senior Chinese and U.S. leaders will hold tariff negotiations in Malaysia [2].

文/片 记者 尹睿 济南报道 10月21日晚间,一路狂飙的黄金价格突现"高台跳水",现货黄金在短短七小时内暴跌逾240美元,一度跌破 4100美元/盎司,最终收于4068.7美元,创下自2013年4月以来最大单日跌幅。 引发市场连锁反应 10月22日,A股黄金股开盘集体大跌,湖南白银、盛达资源跌停,晓程科技、招金黄金、西部黄金跌超9%, 中金黄金、山金国际跌超8%,赤峰黄金、山东黄金跌超7%。贵金属板块成为当日A股跌幅最大的板块之 一,三大指数集体收跌,沪深京三市成交额较上一交易日缩量2024亿元。 金价暴跌 有消费者 趁低买入 尽管金价暴跌引发资本市场震荡,实物黄金市场却呈现出截然不同的景象。 "今天一早就来了好几对新人,趁着金价下调把看好的'三金'全拿下了。"济南老庙黄金门店一位工作人员 22日下午对记者表示。虽是工作日,但前来购买黄金饰品的消费者不在少数。 在周大福专柜,一位正在选购金饰的消费者告诉记者:"我一直关注金价,之前觉得太高没下手,今天看到降 价就赶紧来了。长期来看,黄金还是保值的。"门店工作人员表示:"关键是要根据自身财务状况合理配 置。" 此外,该工作人员还向记者透露:"虽然国际金价下跌, ...

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced a significant downturn on October 21, with gold and silver prices plummeting after reaching historical highs, indicating a sharp correction in the market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold fell over 6% in a single day, dropping $232 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, with futures settling at $4,109.10 per ounce after hitting a peak of $4,381 [1][4]. - Silver saw an even steeper decline, with spot prices dropping 7.6% to $48.49 per ounce, and hitting a low of $47.85, marking the largest single-day drop since 2021 [3][4]. - Domestic markets mirrored this trend, with Shanghai gold futures dropping nearly 6% and Au99.99 contracts falling over 5% [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The decline was triggered by multiple negative factors, including a decrease in risk aversion following a joint statement from European leaders supporting a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which reduced gold's safe-haven premium [4][5]. - The U.S. government's potential resolution of the "shutdown crisis" and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. further suppressed market demand for safe-haven assets [4]. - Profit-taking by investors contributed to the sell-off, as gold and silver had seen substantial gains earlier in the year, with gold up over 57% and silver over 67% [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The sell-off quickly affected capital markets, with significant declines in gold and silver mining stocks, including Harmony Gold and AngloGold, both dropping over 10% [6]. - In contrast, some leading domestic stocks like Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold saw significant trading volumes, indicating a divergence in market sentiment between institutional and retail investors [6]. - Retail gold prices in physical markets, such as those from Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook, actually increased by 2%-2.5%, highlighting a difference in expectations between physical consumption and financial investment [6]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Despite the sharp decline, many analysts believe this adjustment is a temporary correction within a strong market trend, with the underlying bullish factors for gold remaining intact [7]. - Continued central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and high sovereign debt levels are expected to support gold prices in the long term [7]. - HSBC has set a target price of $5,000 per ounce for gold by 2026, emphasizing ongoing central bank purchases and monetary easing as key drivers [7]. Group 5: Short-term Outlook - Analysts predict a volatile short-term outlook for gold and silver, with expectations of limited downside for gold but greater fluctuations for silver [8]. - Citibank has shifted its short-term view to bearish, forecasting gold prices to stabilize around $4,000 per ounce in the next 2-3 weeks [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On October 22, the prices of precious metals continued to decline significantly due to factors such as the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the strengthening of the US dollar, and investors' concentrated profit - taking. The transfer of silver inventories from the US and China to the London market alleviated the shortage of physical silver in London, further triggering the risk of silver selling [5]. - The sharp decline in precious metal prices indicates that the historic upward trend of this round has temporarily ended. In the short term, with the Fed still having expectations of a rate cut in October, precious metals may enter a wide - range shock. It is recommended that investors participate rationally, avoid short - term chasing up or selling down, and focus on long - term allocation. In the long run, the bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and long - term investors can wait for the adjustment to complete and then go long on dips [5]. - In the long term, factors such as the Fed's potential rate cuts within the year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, the unsustainable US debt, intensified great - power competition increasing the risk of US dollar credit, and the continuation of global central bank gold purchases suggest that the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 22, compared with October 21, London gold spot dropped by 4.3% to $4153.64 per ounce, London silver spot fell by 5.0% to $49.16 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 4.3% to $4167.10 per ounce, and CONEX silver declined by 4.4% to $48.47 per ounce. In the domestic market, AU2512 dropped by 4.2% to 952.56 yuan per gram, AG2512 decreased by 3.4% to 11404 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) fell by 4.1% to 950.25 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) declined by 3.4% to 11391 yuan per kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: From October 21 to October 22, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 120.0% to 2.71 yuan per gram, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by - 16.8% to - 1133 yuan per kilogram. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.8% to 83.53, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 0.1% to 85.98 [3]. Position Data - **COMEX Positions**: As of October 21, compared with October 20, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85% to 332808 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43% to 66059 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts. CONEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97% to 72318 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts [3]. - **ETF Positions**: As of October 21, compared with October 20, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 1058.66 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.59% to 15676.6372 tons [3]. Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventories**: On October 22, compared with October 21, SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.52% to 87015 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 7.70% to 691688 kilograms [3]. - **COMEX Inventories**: On October 21, compared with October 20, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.03% to 39020901 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.52% to 503832524 troy ounces [3]. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Data - **Interest Rates**: From October 21 to October 22, the US 2 - year Treasury yield increased by 0.03% to 7.10, and the US 10 - year Treasury yield increased by 0.35% to 3.98 [4]. - **Exchange Rates and Other Data**: The NYMEX crude oil price decreased by 0.29% to 17.87, the US dollar index decreased by 0.50% to 98.97, the VIX decreased by 1.97% to 3.45, the S&P 500 remained unchanged at 6735.35, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 1.14% to 57.58 [4].

Group 1 - The US dollar has shown a strong start in the foreign exchange market, supported by risk aversion due to the government shutdown and heightened attention on the upcoming September CPI data [1][2] - The government shutdown has led to a "data vacuum," increasing the appeal of the US dollar as a traditional global safe-haven asset, resulting in sustained buying support [2][6] - The September CPI data, set to be released soon, is crucial as it is one of the first significant data points post-shutdown and provides insight into the true inflation situation [4] Group 2 - Economists predict a year-on-year increase of 3.1% in the September CPI, which would be the highest level since May 2024, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's policy path in 2026 [4][6] - There is an asymmetry in the market's response to the CPI data; if the data meets or falls below expectations, the dollar may only see minor fluctuations, but a higher-than-expected figure could drive the dollar significantly higher [6][8] - Recent Canadian inflation data exceeding expectations has raised caution among traders, suggesting that US inflation may also remain resilient [6] Group 3 - Despite a cumulative decline of about 7% in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index for 2025, most of the losses occurred in the first half of the year, with the dollar showing resilience in the latter half [7] - The options market indicates optimism, with traders favoring the purchase of bullish dollar options, reflecting a belief that the dollar will continue to strengthen in the next three months [7] - There is a growing perspective that the market may be underestimating the dollar's rebound potential, as the relative strength of the US economy could limit the Fed's rate-cutting capacity [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; neutral on glass, suggesting a wait - and - see stance [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper, suggesting buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pullback; neutral on nickel, suggesting a wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][10][11][12][17][18][19][21] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, suggesting a short - selling strategy; neutral on polyolefins, suggesting a weak sideways movement [1][22][24][25][27][28][29][30] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on PTA, suggesting a weak sideways movement; bullish on apples and jujubes, suggesting a slightly bullish sideways movement [1][32][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting short - selling on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting a weak sideways movement; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting a low - level sideways movement; bullish on oils, suggesting a limited correction [1][37][40][41][42][43] Core Views - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. External uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs lead to a sideways movement. The stock indices are supported during important meetings, but there may be a risk of profit - taking after the meetings. The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations, and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] - The black building materials market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals. Coking coal and rebar are expected to trade in a range, while glass is facing weak fundamentals and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [7][8][9] - The non - ferrous metals market is affected by global trade tensions, supply disruptions, and demand expectations. Copper and aluminum are expected to maintain a strong position, while nickel and tin are expected to trade sideways [10][11][12][17][18] - The energy and chemicals market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies. Most products are expected to trade sideways, while soda ash 01 contract is expected to decline [22][24][25][30] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply and demand and Sino - US relations. Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways, while PTA is expected to decline slightly [32][33][34] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals and seasonal factors. Pigs and eggs are expected to decline, while corn, soybean meal, and oils are expected to trade sideways or have a limited correction [37][40][42][43] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A - share market is affected by external policy uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term and is bullish in the medium to long term. Buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Government Bonds**: The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Supply recovery is slow after the National Day holiday. It has multi - allocation value, and range trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is undervalued, and the demand has recovered while the production has declined slightly. It is expected to trade sideways at a low level, and buying on dips near 3000 for RB2601 is recommended [8] - **Glass**: The market is facing weak fundamentals with rising inventory and weak demand. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is affected by global trade tensions and supply disruptions. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways movement. Buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs is recommended [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by ore prices, production capacity, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways at a high level. Buying on dips after a pullback is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be loose in the medium to long term. It is expected to trade sideways. A wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Range trading is recommended [18][19] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven sentiment. They are expected to trade sideways. Buying after a full correction is recommended [19][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is facing weak fundamentals with high inventory and uncertain export prospects. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4600 - 4800 [22][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is affected by supply and demand and macro - policies. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight downward trend, and the 01 contract should pay attention to the pressure at 2450 [24][25] - **Styrene**: The market is affected by cost and supply - demand imbalance. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 6300 - 6700 [25][26][27] - **Rubber**: The supply provides some support, but the demand is limited. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight upward trend, and pay attention to the support at 15000 [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways at the bottom in the range of 1550 - 1650 [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. The inventory is high, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [29] - **Polyolefins**: The price is affected by cost, supply, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways with a weak trend. The L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6600 [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: The market is facing oversupply and weak demand. The 01 contract is recommended to be shorted [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and Sino - US relations are uncertain. It is expected to trade sideways [32][33] - **PTA**: The price is affected by oil prices and supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4350 - 4600 [33][34] - **Apples**: The quality is declining, and the delivery cost is expected to rise. It is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested. The market is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - to long - term supply is high. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. Short - selling on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [40][41] - **Corn**: The new crop is about to be listed, and the supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - selling on rallies and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage are recommended [40][41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is affected by US soybean harvest and Sino - US trade relations. Buying on dips for the M2601 contract is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The price is affected by palm oil production, soybean supply, and rapeseed import. Buying after a correction is recommended [43][44][45][46][47][48][49]

Market Overview - The investment market has four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits [1] - The current market sentiment shows a rise in risk appetite, negatively impacting the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold [1] Gold Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, following significant sell-off pressure from the previous day, with the market closely monitoring this trend [1] - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a mild bull flattening, with yields slightly retreating, injecting cautious optimism into the fixed income sector [1] - The U.S. dollar has shown slight resilience amidst improving risk sentiment, while gold's sharp decline highlights the vulnerability of safe-haven assets under current market signals [1] - The economic calendar is sparse due to government shutdown concerns, with only minor Treasury auctions and repurchase operations supporting liquidity [1] Technical Analysis - Key support levels for gold are around the 4000 mark, which is near the 20-day moving average on the daily chart and the 5-week moving average on the weekly chart [3] - A drop below 4000 could trigger a mid-term adjustment trend, while holding above this level may indicate continued bullish sentiment [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with resistance levels at 4160-4180 and support at 4120-4100 [3] Oil Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - WTI crude oil prices are fluctuating around $57.55, with market focus shifting towards easing trade concerns and improving inventory changes [4] - Recent signals from the U.S. government indicate a reduction in trade tensions, which has positively influenced market sentiment towards oil [4] - The oil market is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern unless new developments in trade concerns arise [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have broken below the lower boundary of a trading range, suggesting a downward trend [5] - The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, indicating that the mid-term outlook for oil is likely to be a downward trend [5] - Short-term trading strategy recommends focusing on long positions during pullbacks, with resistance at 61.5-62.5 and support at 58.5-57.5 [5]

证券时报记者 许孝如 今年以来，金银走出了一轮史诗级的牛市行情，尤其是黄金接连突破了3000美元、4000美元大关，年内 累计涨幅一度超过60%，堪称市场表现最佳的一类资产。 伴随着金银价格不断刷出历史新高，资金愈发涌入的势头也非常明显。9月，全球实物黄金ETF甚至录 得了有史以来最大的单月流入规模。不过，就在市场的一片唱多声中，金银的大跌也不期而至。10月21 日，伦敦现货黄金从历史高位"摔下"，日内一度大跌6.7%；现货白银当天则大跌逾7%，失守50美元大 关。 展望后市，金银成色尚有几何？ 避险降速金银大跌 10月21日，伦敦现货黄金从历史高位大跌，日内一度跌逾6.7%，收盘报跌5.33%，创下2020年8月以来 最大单日跌幅。值得一提的是，黄金价格单日暴跌232美元/盎司，或创出新的历史纪录。 据统计，2000年以来，伦敦金单日跌幅超过5.3%的情形仅出现过7次，其中最大的一次跌幅为9.11%， 单日暴跌135美元/盎司。 与黄金相比，白银的抛售压力更为强劲。10月21日，现货白银大跌超7%，跌破50美元大关，最低一度 触及47.85美元/盎司，不过今年以来白银的累计涨幅仍在70%一线。 10月22日 ...

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 尹睿 晓程科技 招金黄金 盛达资源 山金国际 中金黄金 山东黄金 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 24.87 -1.63 -6.15% 10.00% 6.68% 3.32% 0.00% 3.32% 6.68% 10.00% 23.85 24.73 25.62 26.50 27.38 28.27 29.15 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 15:30 0 150万 300万 450万 10月21日晚间，一路狂飙的黄金价格突现"高台跳水"，现货黄金在短短七小时内暴跌逾240美元，一度 跌破4100美元/盎司，最终收于4068.7美元，创下自2013年4月以来最大单日跌幅。 金价暴跌引发市场连锁反应 10月22日，A股黄金股开盘集体大跌，湖南白银、盛达资源跌停，晓程科技（300139）、招金黄金、西 部黄金（601069）跌超9%，中金黄金（600489）、山金国际（000975）跌超8%，赤峰黄金 （600988）、山东黄金（600547）跌超7%。贵金属板块成为当日A股跌幅最大的板块之一，三大指数 集体收跌，沪深京三市成交额较上一交易日缩量2024 ...