长期来看，黄金和白银回落之后，仍有继续上涨的动力。美联储存在强烈的降息预期，2026年可能像2025年那样继续降息三次。尤其是美联储主席鲍威 尔卸任，白宫经济委员会主任哈塞特继任之后，美联储的降息幅度恐将超乎想象。 俄乌冲突可能在2026年迎来终局，但加勒比海地区的紧张对峙态势将再度激发国际市场避险情绪。乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，和平计划最难以接受的两 点是扎波罗热核电和领土归属问题，谈判仍将持续。相比特朗普上台前俄乌双方剑拔弩张的态势，现如今事态已大幅缓和，2026年年中极有可能迎来终 局。 加勒比海地区的局势发展，有可能成为继俄乌冲突之后，新的避险情绪触发点。昨日，特朗普表示，摧毁了委内瑞拉境内的一座大型基础设施。虽然这 一表态尚未得到委内瑞拉方面的证实，也缺乏相应细节。但可以看出，美国与委内瑞拉之间的矛盾存在升级可能。这对于黄金和白银的中短期走势形成 持续提振。 ATFX贵金属：白银结束了一个多月的疯涨模式。11月24日开始，白银从49.9美元开始，一路顺畅上涨，其间极少出现阴线（日K线），每日的涨幅在 1~3美金之间。12月26日，即上周五，白银从72.8美元涨至最高79.3美元，收盘在79.14美元， ...

俄罗斯指责乌克兰对其北部总统官邸发动无人机袭击，此事促使莫斯科重新审视和平谈判立场，进一步 加剧地区紧张氛围。乌克兰则否认相关指控，并指责俄方在为后续军事行动寻找借口。这些事件刺激避 险情绪升温，黄金等传统资产需求随之增加。 与此同时，CME在上周五（12月26日）提高黄金、白银等金属期货保证金要求，旨在增加交易者现金 抵押，抑制过度杠杆操作。美国11月成屋待完成销售指数环比上升3.3%，超出预期并创2023年2月以来 新高，显示经济仍有一定韧性。 美国总统特朗普近期表示，期望下一任美联储主席维持低利率并与其保持一致，此言论引发市场对美联 储独立性的担忧。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前对1月会议降息的概率定价约为16.1%。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货12月30日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计755754千克，今日仓单较上一 日减少40985千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报18000元/千克，最高触及18636元/千克，最低触及17205 元/千克，截止收盘报18140元/千克，下跌3.96%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

摘要今日周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D最新报价980.02元/克，较昨日下跌28.89元/克，跌幅 2.86%，日内价格最高达1003.69元/克，最低下探至969.32元/克，昨日收盘价1003.69元/克，今日开盘价 1000.80元/克。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 国内上海黄金t+d大幅下挫，收盘报974.95元/克，日内暴跌3.40%，最低触及969.31元/克，失守1000元整 数关口，技术形态呈现破位特征。布林带下轨加速下移，中轨拐头向下，波动率显著扩张；MACD柱状 体由红转绿并放大，DIF与DEA在零轴下方形成死叉，RSI下探至38，空头动能强劲。成交量显著放 大，持仓量同步下降，反映多头集中离场，抛压集中释放。国际金价同步重挫至4350.2美元/盎司，美 元走强叠加假期前避险情绪退潮，构成双重压制。短期支撑下移至965元，若跌破则可能下探950元区 间，反弹需放量突破985元方可确认企稳。 【要闻速递】 据伊朗官方媒体报道，央行行长穆罕默德.礼萨.法尔津已辞职。德黑兰市中心萨迪街和大巴扎附近的舒 什社区出现商人及店主集会，抗议经济恶化。目击者称，包括伊斯法罕、设拉子、马什哈德在内 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源及有色组 昨日铂钯价格大幅下跌，均以跌停价收盘。铂主力合约2606收于634元/克，钯主力合约2606收于494元/ 克，跌幅均为10%。 近期大幅下跌主要是受到贵金属板块整体回调带动。午盘过后，金银铂钯纷纷大幅跳水，其中白银从涨 10%跌至收盘0.5%，铂钯直接跌停，主要受到近期贵金属涨幅过大，多头止盈的影响。此外，此前 NYMEX因圣诞假期休市，外盘暂停交易，而国内铂钯依然维持强势走势，导致铂钯内外价差拉大到 100元/克附近，跨地区套利窗口持续打开，导致内盘回调幅度强于外盘。 长期来看，潜在的地缘政治风险和贸易冲突引发的避险情绪仍将继续支撑贵金属维持高位。铂钯品种由 于交易规模相对较小，波动幅度更大，需关注波动风险。 风险提示：关注宏观环境变化，供给端干扰事件。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者并不能 依靠本报告以取代 行使独立判断。对投资者依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均 不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold and other precious metals has surged to historical highs, driven by factors such as interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical tensions, and strong trading activity in the precious metals sector [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of last Friday, the London spot gold price closed at $4532.51 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of $191.45 per ounce or 4.41% since December 19 [1]. - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 exceeded market expectations, rising from 3.8% in Q2 to 4.3%, which has led to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations [3]. - The precious metals sector has seen significant trading activity, with silver prices breaking through key levels and rising over 10% on Friday, while platinum and palladium also reached new highs [1][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The situation in Venezuela has escalated, with the U.S. seizing oil and tankers near Venezuela and increasing military presence in the Caribbean [5][6]. - In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine's drone attacks on Moscow have heightened tensions, with ongoing discussions about peace plans that have yet to resolve key territorial issues [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term risks include potential price volatility due to thin liquidity at year-end and profit-taking by investors after recent highs [2][10]. - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to support gold prices [2][11]. - The CME Group has announced an increase in margin requirements for various metal futures, reflecting concerns over current market volatility [8].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market is showing strong signals, with gold and silver reaching historical highs due to a combination of factors including risk aversion, a weakening dollar, and technical resonance [1][2] - Silver has outperformed gold, indicating a shift of funds towards high-elasticity assets, reflecting an increase in market pricing for future uncertainties [1][2] - Platinum has also reached new highs, suggesting that funds are diversifying within the entire precious metals sector rather than being limited to traditional safe-haven assets [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Metals Insights - Copper prices have experienced a historic breakthrough, which is seen as a reflection of long-term supply and demand dynamics rather than short-term sentiment [3][4] - There is an expectation of tightening global supply in the coming years, coupled with structural demand increases for copper due to energy transition, making it a key target for investment [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The volatility of certain high-risk financial products serves as a reminder for the market to pay attention to valuation and risk alignment [4] - As prices rise beyond fundamental rhythms, any corrections could be amplified, necessitating a focus on the underlying price logic of assets rather than merely chasing short-term gains [4] - Both gold and silver are in a strong bullish trend, with key resistance levels being tested; as long as core support levels are not breached, the medium-term outlook for precious metals remains optimistic [4]

Group 1 - The market experienced a sell-off, particularly in recently surging commodities, with significant declines in platinum, palladium futures, and lithium carbonate [1][2] - Lithium carbonate futures dropped by 7.89%, hitting the limit down, influenced by delayed resumption of lithium mines and adjustments in pricing by leading lithium salt companies [2] - Silver futures initially surged nearly 10% but later fell, with geopolitical tensions and supply constraints providing initial support for precious metals [3] Group 2 - Copper prices reached new highs but later retraced some gains, supported by ongoing supply constraints from overseas mining disruptions and a favorable monetary policy environment [4] - The overall demand for lithium carbonate is weakening, with a reduction in orders for passenger vehicles expected in January, while commercial vehicle and energy storage orders remain strong [2] - The commodity index reported a decline of 0.38%, reflecting a broader trend of capital outflow from precious metals and new energy sectors, with significant outflows from gold, lithium carbonate, and silver [6]

金瑞期货指出，催化金价上涨的因素反映了两个深层逻辑：第一，市场将未来政策利率下行、通胀韧性 与财政扩张并置定价，压低长期实际贴现率并推高资金对无信用风险资产的配置需求。第二，在地缘局 势与金融市场的不确定性上升的背景下，官方部门与私人部门共同强化资产与储备多元化，从而形成黄 金的"结构性"买盘。 12月22日-12月26日，上周金价表现强势，周初受降息预期升温及地缘政治风险扩散影响，金价强势上 涨，不断刷新历史高点，突破4500美元关口，此后由于资金获利了结，金价冲高后小幅回落，周尾受贸 易摩擦加剧影响，金价再度反弹，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货周度涨3.98%报4562.0美元/盎司，截至 亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)周度涨3.61%，黄金股ETF(159562)周度涨5.34%。 ...

展望下阶段，中信证券报告认为，2026年金价有望继续受益于美联储降息带来的流动性宽松氛围，全球 黄金ETF流入将作为黄金的重要买盘。潜在的地缘政治风险和贸易冲突引发的避险情绪将继续支撑金 价，去美元化、央行购金等长期趋势构成金价上涨的坚实基础，预计2026年金价将再创新高，但考虑到 2025年金价涨幅显著，且上述因素已部分在金价中兑现，预计2026年金价涨幅或收窄至10%-15%，全年 价格或冲击5000美元/盎司。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉28日对记者表示，当下普通投资者应"回归本质，保持敬畏"。首先，必须从 根本上区分自身是作为"配置者"还是"交易者"。对于配置者，黄金是家庭金融资产的"压舱石"之一，其 意义在于风险对冲而非博取收益，建议采用定投方式平滑成本，并严格控制整体仓位比例。对于交易 者，则必须清醒认识到，当前价格已极度超前反映预期，市场脆弱性上升，应恪守止损纪律，尤其白银 波动性是黄金的数倍，非专业投资者不宜深涉。其次，建议所有投资者审视自身的投资组合，金银的仓 位不应挤压对成长性资产的长期布局。 央广网北京12月28日消息（记者 宓迪）国际金银价格近期成为市场焦点。Wind数据显示，截至记者发 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant surge in global precious metals, particularly silver, which has seen a dramatic increase in prices, leading to substantial profits for investors [1][3][5] - International silver prices surged over 10%, reaching a peak of $79.324, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 170% [3][14] - The price of silver in the domestic market is approaching 20 yuan per gram, indicating a strong demand and market activity [3][9] Group 2 - The article reports that the recent price surge has led to increased sales and buyback activities in jewelry stores, with one store recovering over 30 kilograms of silver within hours of the price spike [7][9] - Analysts attribute the price increase to multiple factors, including a 10% decline in the US dollar index, renewed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and structural supply issues in the silver market [14][15] - The outlook for precious metals in 2026 suggests a continued upward trend due to the weakening of the dollar's credit and ongoing supply-demand imbalances, particularly for silver [16]