中国商报（记者 王彤旭 文/图）近期，黄金屡上热搜。2026年1月6日，周生生上调部分定价类金饰价格。据悉，周生生此次涨价幅度在200元 至1500元/款。 在刚刚过去的2025年，黄金成为全球金融市场最耀眼的"明星"，上演了一场波澜壮阔的牛市行情。2026年，黄金走势如何？业内人士认为， 从国际金价屡破历史纪录，到A股黄金股集体走强；从各国央行持续增持，到国内消费市场结构重塑，黄金市场在多重因素共振下迎来历史 性突破。 全面开花的牛市行情 回顾2025年，国际黄金价格迎来史诗级上涨，创下自1979年石油危机以来的最大年度涨幅。 截至2025年年末，伦敦现货黄金报4373.499美元/盎司，全年累计涨幅达67%，其间超50次刷新历史新高，一度逼近4600美元/盎司关口。从关 键节点来看，金价3月14日历史性突破3000美元/盎司，4月快速攀升至3500美元/盎司上方，年中经历短暂回调后，9月开启新一轮强势上涨， 10月8日突破4000美元/盎司整数关口，12月下旬站稳4500美元/盎司平台，上涨势头贯穿全年。 伴随着金价走强，其他贵金属同步走高，国际白银期价年内上涨约150%，一度突破80美元/盎司，铂金期货 ...

中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海 北京报道 据新华社报道，当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击，抓获委内瑞拉 总统马杜罗，并带离委内瑞拉。 1月5日，国内贵金属期货开盘集体上涨。截至当日17时，现货黄金最高触及4433.55 美元/盎司。 多位分析人士指出，黄金价格强势上涨主要是避险需求推动。汇管信息科技研究院副院长赵庆明强 调："此次地缘事件的烈度与持续性可能有限，其引发的市场避险情绪有望随时间缓和。" 展望后市，华安基金方面指出，美联储仍处于降息大周期，若鸽派主席任选，美联储降息节奏或更加激 进。宽货币之外，美国也处于宽财政阶段，美债信用风险延续，去美元化下央行购金延续，叠加全球黄 金ETF投资需求高涨，仍看好2026年黄金配置价值。 地缘冲突点燃避险情绪 赵庆明在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时指出，该事件发生后，现货黄金价格出现显著上涨。若地区风 险持续发酵或全球其他地缘热点（如俄乌冲突）联动，将继续为金价提供避险溢价。 华安基金方面指出，地缘紧张局势有望利好黄金。全球百年未有之大变局下，逆全球化与地缘冲突不 断，地缘政治的不确定性有望促使更多避险资金涌向黄金。 "特朗普表示美国石 ...

Group 1: Global Trade and Financial Market Dynamics - The unilateral imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration marked a structural reversal in global trade policy, leading to significant financial market volatility, with G20 countries implementing trade restrictions covering $2.9 trillion, surpassing trade facilitation measures for the first time [1] - The trade war and financial market turmoil mutually reinforced each other, creating a core risk landscape for the global economy in 2025 [2] Group 2: Digital Currency Competition - In 2025, major economies shifted from technological exploration to institutional construction in the digital currency space, with the U.S. establishing a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies through the GENIUS Act and Hong Kong introducing a stablecoin regulatory draft [3] - The rapid development of digital currency regulation signifies a critical phase in digital financial governance, with countries competing for monetary sovereignty and financial discourse power [3] Group 3: Global Debt Levels - Global debt reached a historic high of $337.76 trillion by mid-2025, with developed markets' debt being 2.08 times that of emerging markets, although the latter experienced a faster debt growth rate [4] - The rising global debt levels raise concerns about financial system vulnerabilities and the need for effective multilateral debt restructuring mechanisms [5] Group 4: U.S. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate-cutting cycle in September 2025, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, amidst concerns of economic recession due to a weakening labor market [6] - The depreciation of the dollar against other currencies and the Fed's monetary policy uncertainty contributed to global financial market volatility [7] Group 5: Euro Strength and Economic Implications - The euro's nominal effective exchange rate index rose to a five-year high, driven by increased demand for euro assets amid global economic uncertainty, despite the European Central Bank's rate cuts [8] - The euro's appreciation poses challenges for the eurozone's manufacturing exports, as geopolitical risks and rising tariffs continue to impact economic growth prospects [8] Group 6: Japan's Monetary Policy Shift - Japan's central bank raised interest rates to 0.75%, marking a 30-year high, indicating a potential normalization of monetary policy amid economic recovery signals [9] - The implications of Japan's rate hike on global monetary trends remain limited, as the overall trend of monetary easing persists [9] Group 7: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices surged to historical peaks in 2025, with gold reaching $4,530.8 per ounce and silver hitting $70.155 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued monetary easing [10] - The price increases reflect a shift towards a more balanced and stable international monetary order, with precious metals becoming key assets in the evolving financial landscape [10] Group 8: Technology Sector Volatility - The total market capitalization of major tech companies approached $22 trillion, but a significant sell-off occurred in November 2025 due to concerns over high valuations and potential bubble risks [11] - The market's shift from "imagination premium" to "realization assessment" indicates a structural adjustment in global capital risk preferences, with funds potentially reallocating towards more stable growth markets [11] Group 9: Declining Dollar Dominance - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92%, marking the lowest level since 1995, amidst a trend of "de-dollarization" driven by geopolitical tensions and the U.S. tariff policies [12] - The decline in the dollar's reserve share reflects a broader diversification trend in global foreign exchange reserves, although the dollar's dominance remains relatively stable in the short term [12] Group 10: BRICS Expansion - Indonesia's accession as the tenth member of BRICS signifies a significant expansion of the group's economic influence, with member countries now representing over 40% of global GDP and more than half of the world's population [13] - The expansion of BRICS reflects a concerted effort by non-Western nations to reform global governance and create a more resilient economic framework amidst rising protectionism [13]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals sector is experiencing a correction due to the CME raising margin requirements, leading to a decrease in speculative sentiment and a drop in prices for silver, platinum, and palladium, with gold also following suit [1] - Short-term outlook remains positive for precious metals, driven by potential political events in the Americas around New Year's that may trigger safe-haven demand, alongside inflows into ETFs due to interest rate cuts [1] - Long-term view suggests that the process of de-dollarization will continue, and investors are encouraged to hold positions despite market volatility [1] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices have risen, with a supply-demand tightness expected in 2026 due to lowered production forecasts from Freeport and Teck Resources, alongside anticipated increases in U.S. government spending [2] - The recommendation is to buy on dips, as current adjustments in copper prices present buying opportunities [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of a national subsidy plan in 2026, which aims to stimulate demand for consumer goods [2] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to maintenance at the Mozal aluminum plant, while demand is constrained by high prices and environmental production limits [2] - Overall, the recommendation is to buy aluminum and aluminum equities on dips, given the expected supply disturbances and potential demand growth [2] Group 4: Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased across the board, with significant rises in electrolytic cobalt and other cobalt products due to tight supply conditions and increased trading activity [3] - The domestic raw material supply remains structurally tight, providing solid support for prices [3] Group 5: Lithium - Lithium prices have surged, driven by favorable signals from domestic new energy vehicle subsidies and anticipated production resumption from major suppliers [3] - The recommendation is to buy on dips, as the market is expected to maintain a downward inventory trend amid stable demand [3] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Xingye Silver Tin, Xiyu Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, New Jinlu, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Zhaojin Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum is still weak, but different investment products have different trends. For example, the stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, while the treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [6][9]. 3. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close down. The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.05%, 0.02%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 10 - year main contract rose by 0.03% [5]. - **Policy and News**: The central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 5th, with a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan due to 482.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The 9 - department notice on promoting green consumption was released [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 2.26%, 2.55%, 3.11%, and 2.69% respectively [8]. - **Policy and News**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on promoting the cross - departmental work of the comprehensive prevention and control system for financial fraud in the capital market. It aims to improve the system, strengthen coordination, and enhance corporate governance [9]. - **Outlook**: The fluctuation center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the gold main contract close at 995 with a 1.78% increase, and the silver main contract close at 18,247 with a 6.87% increase [11]. - **Policy and News**: The Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari commented on the employment market, inflation, and economic outlook [11]. - **Outlook**: The market volatility is expected to significantly increase. It is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures weakly oscillate. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai thread steel, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for thread steel is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has eased as the production is at a low level this year. The inventory is higher than last year but the consumption speed is fast. The hot - rolled coil has similar fundamentals [13]. - **Outlook**: The prices are likely to continue to weakly oscillate. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The national hot metal daily output has declined in the past two months. The import volume in the first 11 months of 2025 increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the domestic production is lower than in 2024. The port inventory is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years [15]. - **Outlook**: The market supply - demand pattern is weak, but the futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage their positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures decline significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: After the holiday, domestic coking coal production increased. The demand from downstream coke enterprises is weak, and the fourth - round price cut of coke procurement has been implemented. The blast furnace profit is low, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - **Outlook**: The futures may continue to weakly oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels and manage their positions carefully [17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon main contract decline by 0.78% and the silicon - iron main contract decline by 1.37% [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The manganese ore supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is slightly increasing. The cost of ferroalloys fluctuates slightly at a low level. The production of thread steel by sample steel mills is lower than in 2024, and the production of ferroalloys is at a low level in the past five - year period, but the inventory continues to increase [19]. - **Outlook**: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil decline significantly due to the possible development of Venezuelan oil resources by the US [21]. - **Policy and News**: The US may have captured the Venezuelan president, and the US oil production reached a record high in October. The OPEC meeting confirmed a suspension of production increase in the first quarter [21]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw fuel oil decline significantly and close below the moving average group. The Asian VLSFO spot discount narrowed, and the HSFO oscillated within a range [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative for prices. The spot discount narrowing and the possible increase in crude oil prices may support the fuel oil price [24]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Hangzhou PP market have mixed price movements, and the Yuyao LLDPE price increased [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production enterprises are actively reducing inventory, and the market price has stopped falling and rebounded, which is conducive to price stability [26]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [27]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract rise by 0.95%. The Shandong mainstream price increased, and the basis was stable [28]. - **Supply and Demand**: The price increase was supported by the rise in butadiene price and high device operating rate, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased [28][29]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rise by 1.06% and 1.14% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis slightly widened [31]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic supply has stopped, but the overseas pressure remains. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The 20 - rubber delivery supply has expanded [31]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract decline by 0.67%. The spot price was stable, and the basis slightly widened [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: It is in the traditional off - season. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The cost support is strong, and the social inventory is increasing [33][34]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side [33][34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the urea main contract rise by 1.43%. The Shandong Linyi price increased, and the basis was stable [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output has slightly increased, and the agricultural demand is expected to increase. The demand from the industrial sector is weak. The inventory has decreased [35]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PX2603 main contract decline by 1.23%. The PXN spread and short - term profit are recovering [37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is stable, and the inventory is low. The crude oil price may be adjusted due to the US - Venezuela situation [37][38]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate and adjust in the short term. It is advisable to participate with caution and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PTA2605 main contract decline by 1.87%. The processing fee has recovered [39]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has recovered. The export has increased. The cost of crude oil may be uncertain due to geopolitical situations [39]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to operate with caution and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract decline by 2.51% [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to increase, the port inventory is increasing, and the demand support is slightly weakening [40][41]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2602 main contract decline by 1.25% [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal factories are mainly consuming inventory. The new orders in the weaving sector are weak [42]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate following the raw material price. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the bottle - chip 2603 main contract decline by 1.46%. The processing fee is around 410 yuan/ton [43]. - **Supply and Demand**: The bottle - chip factory load has increased, and the export growth rate has increased. The supply - demand structure has slightly improved, but the cost is still the main influencing factor [43]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate following the cost. It is advisable to participate with caution and control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract rise by 7.74% [45]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased [45]. - **Outlook**: The price may be supported in the short term, but it is necessary to operate with caution as it is easily affected by news [45]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract rise by 2.22% [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global copper supply may be tight due to strikes in Chile. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing [46]. - **Outlook**: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise [46]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract rise by 2.57%, and the alumina main contract decline by 0.72% [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: The alumina supply is in excess, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand from processing enterprises is weak [48]. - **Outlook**: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be vigilant about price retracement [48]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract rise by 1.16% [50]. - **Supply and Demand**: The zinc concentrate processing fee is low, and the refined zinc production may decrease. The overseas supply - demand tension has eased [50]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise as the consumption off - season is approaching [50]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract rise by 0.32% [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply from primary and secondary lead enterprises is weak, and the consumption is in the off - season. The inventory is low [52][53]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate within a range [54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai tin main contract rise by 1.05% [55]. - **Supply and Demand**: The tin supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production resumption in Wa State. The demand has some resilience [55]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai nickel main contract rise by 0.71% [56]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Indonesian nickel policy may increase costs. The stainless - steel demand is weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation [56]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the soybean meal main contract decline by 0.28% and the soybean oil main contract decline by 0.13% [57]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Brazilian soybean planting is almost completed. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, while the demand for soybean oil has slightly improved [57][58]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the cost - support range for soybean meal and long - position opportunities for call options at low levels for soybean oil [58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw Malaysian palm oil rise slightly [59]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to reach a seven - year high, and the export has decreased. The domestic import has increased [60]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed price increased by more than 1% [62]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have changed, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high and low level respectively in the past seven years [62]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [63]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the domestic Zhengzhou cotton first rise and then fall. The overseas cotton price rose by 1% [64]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly, but the future planting area may decrease. The textile and clothing export has shown some resilience [65][66]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to be strong [66]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Zhengzhou sugar oscillate and rebound, and the overseas raw sugar slightly rebounded [68]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. The import volume has changed [69]. - **Outlook**: The upward space may be limited after the significant rebound [70]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the domestic apple futures rise significantly [72]. - **Supply and Demand**: The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season production and quality have declined [73]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the national average pig price remain unchanged. The main contract declined by 0.98% [75][76]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of large - scale farms may increase in January, and the demand has weakened after the holiday. The frozen - product inventory has decreased [75][76]. - **Outlook**: The supply may face great pressure in the first quarter. It is advisable to consider an inverse spread strategy [76]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main contract rise by 1.42% [78]. - **Supply and Demand**: The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in January, but the supply may improve marginally. The consumption is weak after the New Year's Day [77][78]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to consider a positive spread strategy [78]. Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the corn main contract decline by 0.22% and the corn starch main contract decline by 0.44% [79]. - **Supply and Demand**: The North Port corn inventory is low, and the Northeast production area's grain - selling progress is fast. The

Group 1 - Precious metals are experiencing a correction due to increased margin requirements by CME, leading to a decrease in speculative sentiment and a drop in prices for silver, platinum, and palladium, with gold also following suit. Short-term outlook remains positive due to potential political events in the Americas around New Year's that may trigger safe-haven demand, alongside inflows into ETFs driven by interest rate cuts [1][2] - Copper prices have risen, supported by a supply-demand imbalance expected in 2026 due to lowered production forecasts from Freeport and Teck Resources. The expectation of increased fiscal spending by the U.S. government further strengthens this outlook, suggesting that current price adjustments present buying opportunities [2] - Aluminum is recommended for buying on dips, with macroeconomic support expected from the implementation of a national subsidy plan in 2026 aimed at stimulating demand. Supply disruptions are anticipated due to maintenance at the Mozal aluminum plant, while demand remains constrained by high prices and environmental production limits [2] Group 2 - Cobalt prices have increased across the board, with electrolytic cobalt prices rising significantly due to tight supply conditions. The domestic raw material market remains structurally tight, providing solid support for prices [3] - Lithium prices have surged, driven by favorable signals from domestic new energy vehicle subsidies and expected production resumption from a key mine. The overall demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate remains strong, suggesting that carbonated lithium will continue to deplete inventories, making it a buy on dips [3] - Investment recommendations include companies such as Xingye Silver Tin, Xiyang Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Zijin Mining, among others, indicating a focus on firms within the precious metals and base metals sectors [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Volatile [3] - CSI 300 Index: Rebounding [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebounding [3] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Consolidating [3] - Gold: High - level Volatility [5] - Silver: High - level Volatility [5] - Logs: Volatile [5] - Pulp: Volatile [6] - Offset Paper: Stable and Volatile [6] - Soybean Oil: Volatile [6] - Palm Oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean Meal: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Soybean No.2: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Soybean No.1: Volatile [6] - Live Pigs: Weakening [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wide - range Volatility [10] - PTA: Wide - range Volatility [10] - MEG: Low - level Volatility [10] - PR: On - hold [10] - PF: On - hold [10] Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of the black industry have no prominent contradictions, with multiple long and short factors in supply and demand competing, and prices are expected to move within a range. Uncertainties in the coal - coke market in January are high, and attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal and the downstream stocking rhythm. The steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the possible introduction of crude steel production control policies. The glass market needs to verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and whether the demand can be maintained [2]. - The stock index futures and options market has a positive start in the new year, and the recent market is expected to maintain an upward trend. The bond market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend [3]. - The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not reversed, and the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors. The Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide strong medium - and long - term support for gold prices. The log market has stable supply, weak demand, and falling costs, and prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The pulp market has a pattern of loose supply and demand, and prices may maintain a volatile trend. The double - offset paper market has weak fundamental driving forces, and prices are expected to be stable and volatile in the short term. The oil and fat market is short - term volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil. The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak, and attention should be paid to South American weather, auction policies, soybean arrival rhythms, and Spring Festival logistics efficiency [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs may decline, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly after the holiday. The rubber market has characteristics of marginal supply relief, consumption entering the traditional off - season, and high inventory, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The PX and PTA markets are wide - range volatile, and the MEG market is low - level volatile. The PR market is expected to adjust strongly and volatile, and the PF market is expected to be strongly volatile [10]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: During the New Year's Day holiday, Singapore iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly. In the first quarter, the main production areas in Australia and Brazil enter the seasonal weather - sensitive period, which may lead to a phased contraction in shipments. Steel demand is in the traditional off - season, and the current hot - metal output is close to the phased bottom. Steel mills' imported ore inventories are at a new low in the same period in recent years, and the rigid demand for winter storage replenishment is gradually increasing, providing short - term support for steel prices. However, domestic port inventories are continuously at a high level, and the upward range of iron ore prices is under pressure [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before and after New Year's Day, the spot price of the coke market declined under pressure, and the fourth round of price cuts was implemented. The average profit of coking plants further declined. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are loose, and the overall operating load of coking plants is stable. Some steel - mill coking plants have inventory accumulation and mainly focus on active shipments. After the fourth round of price cuts, the procurement enthusiasm of some steel mills has increased, and the output of five major steel products has increased. There is an expectation of hot - metal复产 in January, and the fundamentals of coke are expected to improve. However, under the dual suppression of the consumption off - season and environmental protection restrictions, steel mills' procurement is expected to be cautious. In January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase, and the support for the cost side of coke is insufficient [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: During the New Year's Day holiday, market activity decreased. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.36 tons to 815.18 tons. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.41 tons to 841.02 tons, and rebar was the only variety with a decline in apparent demand. The inventory of five major steel products continued to decline by 25.84 tons to 1232.15 tons, reaching the lowest level since the Spring Festival in 2025. Traders' willingness to take goods is weak, and they may continue low - inventory operations. Attention should be paid to the possible introduction of crude steel production control policies, and the current steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2]. - **Glass**: During the holiday, the sentiment in the spot market remained weak, the spot price decreased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate. There is a possibility of further price cuts in the future. At the end of the year, there will be cold - repair implementation. The market needs to verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and whether the demand can be maintained. The demand for float - glass is continuously weak, and the real - estate completion decline drags down the demand outlook. The overall glass demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [2][3]. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: In the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.90%, the SSE 50 index rose by 2.26%, the CSI 500 index rose by 2.49%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 2.09%. The insurance and healthcare sectors had net capital inflows, while the oil and gas and shipping sectors had net capital outflows. The market had a positive start in the new year, and the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 4000 points. The recent market is expected to maintain an upward trend, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield to maturity of the 10 - year China bond rose by 2bps, FR007 rose by 4bps, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 5, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 4823 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan. The central bank's liquidity injection in December 2025 showed net injections through various channels. The spot bond interest rate of treasury bonds rebounded slightly, and the market trend was in a narrow - range consolidation [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: In the context of a high - interest - rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central - bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has led to cracks in the monetary credit of the US dollar, and the de - fiat - currency attribute of gold is prominent in the process of de - dollarization. In the global high - interest - rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero - coupon bond for bonds is weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US bonds is reduced. Geopolitical risks persist, and market risk - aversion demand remains, which is an important factor driving up the gold price. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months since November last year. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not reversed, and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors [5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is in a high - level volatile state. Short - term factors such as the US raid on Venezuela have increased geopolitical risks and risk - aversion sentiment, and the unexpected decline in the latest US PMI has strengthened the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cuts. The market currently expects two interest - rate cuts next year [5]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Last week, the daily average shipment volume of logs at ports was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 4900 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The national daily average outbound volume decreased to less than 60,000 cubic meters due to the impact of Shandong. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in November was 1.452 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3% compared with the previous month. In November, China's coniferous log imports were 2.2295 million cubic meters, an increase of 16.86% compared with the previous month and 2.58% compared with the same period last year. The expected arrival volume last week was 510,000 cubic meters, a increase of 66.8% compared with the previous week. As of last week, the log port inventory was 2.54 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The spot market price was relatively stable. The delivery participation willingness in the industry was low in November, and there are currently 200 registered warrants. The supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost decline is a drag, so the log price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price was relatively stable in the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was adjusted by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of some broad - leaf pulp in Guangdong increased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of coniferous pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 700 US dollars/ton, and the latest FOB price of broad - leaf pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 570 US dollars/ton, strengthening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is at a low level, paper mills have high inventory pressure, and their acceptance of high - price pulp is not high. The demand is not good, and currently, paper mills purchase raw materials on a just - in - time basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The fundamentals show a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price may maintain a volatile trend [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot market price was stable in the previous trading day. The supply side is relatively stable this week, and there is still supply pressure. The publication orders are being picked up, which supports the market on the demand side, but the social - order demand is weak. The fundamental driving force is not strong, and the price is expected to be stable and volatile in the short term. There is a possibility of significant price fluctuations due to liquidity issues [6]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the export volume in December decreased by 5.2% - 5.8% compared with the previous month. The key variable that can boost the oil price, the biodiesel policy, is still full of uncertainties. The EPA will not finally determine the 2026 biofuel blending policy until the first quarter, and the Indonesian B50 plan is difficult to implement at least in the first half of the year. The export of US soybeans is weak, and the demand prospect is uncertain. A large amount of soybeans are continuously arriving in China, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, the oil inventory has declined but the supply is still abundant, the post - holiday consumption boost is limited, the catering consumption recovery is weak, and the terminal procurement willingness is average. The oil market is short - term volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meals**: The global soybean ending inventory is 122.4 million tons, which is relatively loose. Currently, the weather conditions in Brazil are excellent, while Argentina is facing drought problems, and there are still many uncertainties in subsequent growth. The northern region of Brazil has started the harvesting work, indicating that the new - season soybeans are approaching the global market. The price of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazil, and it has no export advantage to China. Coupled with the uncertainty of US biodiesel, the market has uncertainties about the demand scale of US soybeans. The weak operation of US soybeans and Argentina's reduction of the export tariff to 25% have led to a decline in the long - term soybean import cost. The domestic oil - mill operating rate is expected to decline but remain at a high level, and a large amount of imported soybeans are arriving. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, the high breeding inventory supports consumption, but the breeding efficiency is not good, and procurement is cautious, mostly on a just - in - time basis. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and weak, and after New Year's Day and before the Spring Festival, the market focus will be on South American weather, auction policy implementation, soybean arrival rhythm, and Spring Festival logistics efficiency [6]. - **Soybean No.2**: Brazilian new soybeans will start to be listed in January, and the global supply is expected to turn to a loose situation. The slow sales of US soybeans to China due to market concerns about US soybean exports are still the focus of the market. Coupled with the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, US soybeans are weak. Affected by a large amount of imports and state - reserve sales, the domestic soybean market shows a pattern of high inventory and high crushing volume, with loose supply. Downstream oil mills have sufficient raw - material inventory and weak demand, and the soybean No.2 market is expected to be volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to uncertainties such as the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and Sino - US trade progress [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The national average trading weight of live pigs is 124.54 kg, a slight decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous period. In some northern provinces, due to the impact of previous pig diseases, some pigs were slaughtered in advance, and farmers' bearish outlook on the future market led to accelerated slaughter. The recent cooling and holiday consumption have accelerated the digestion speed, and the average slaughter weight in local areas has decreased. In some southwestern regions, due to the peak of cured - meat consumption, large - weight live pigs were slaughtered intensively, driving up the average slaughter weight. The inventory of large pigs in the next period will decrease, and the national average trading weight of live pigs may decline. The average settlement price of key national slaughtering enterprises is 12.12 yuan/kg, a 1.2% increase compared with the previous period. The decrease in southern temperatures has increased the demand for cured meat, and some northern slaughtering enterprises have high enthusiasm for purchasing pigs, jointly supporting the increase in the settlement price. The weekly average operating rate of key domestic live - pig slaughtering enterprises has reached 44.29%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points. The snowfall and temperature decrease in the northern region have driven up the terminal pork consumption, and the increase in slaughtering - enterprise orders has driven up the operating rate. The average self - breeding and self - raising profit of live pigs is - 190.92 yuan/head, and the average profit of fattening piglets is - 184.18 yuan/head. The low temperature in most areas, the increase in cured - meat demand in the southwestern region in the early stage, and the increase in pork consumption have driven up the slaughtering operating rate. The demand for live pigs during the New Year's Day holiday has supported the increase in pig prices, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly after the holiday [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the closed - cutting state. The main natural - rubber - producing area in Hainan is in the seasonal shutdown state, with a small amount of output in some western areas. The low enthusiasm for raw - material procurement has led to a low purchase price. The climate conditions in the Thai - producing area are stable, and the new - rubber output maintains a normal level. The northeastern Thai - producing area is expected to gradually stop cutting at the beginning of the year, and the supply side will narrow in the short term, with the raw - rubber price remaining strong. As of late December, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 63.6%. According to CAAM data, the domestic sales volume of new - energy vehicles in November was 1.522 million, a 4.3% increase compared with the previous month and a 6.5% increase compared with the same period last year.

Economic Outlook - The global economy in 2025 shows strong resilience amid uncertainty, characterized by heightened competition, moderate growth slowdown, and increasing risk pressures [1] - A significant shift in monetary policy is anticipated in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts leading to a favorable environment for commodity markets [1] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is expected to experience a major surge in 2026, with gold, silver, and copper reaching new historical highs, and target prices set at $5000/oz, $100/oz, and $7.50/lb respectively [1] - Gold prices surged from $2624 to a peak of $4378 in 2025, marking a cumulative increase of $1754 (67%) driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [3][5] - Copper prices also reached a historical high of $5.88, with a 47% increase from $3.98, influenced by supply constraints and rising demand [16][17] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices continued a downward trend in 2025, influenced by increased supply and declining demand growth, with prices fluctuating between $80.74 and $55.11 [7][11] - OPEC+ plans to gradually lift production cuts starting April 2025, restoring 2.326 million barrels per day, which raises concerns about oversupply [8] Currency Trends - The US dollar index experienced a significant decline of over 12% in 2025, dropping from a high of 110 to a low of 96.20, driven by economic risks and geopolitical factors [12][14] Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed a volatile upward trend in 2025, with the S&P 500 index rising by 26.84%, supported by AI infrastructure developments and favorable economic conditions [15]

黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价波动放大。伦敦现货黄金收于4，333美元/盎司（周环比-4.4%），国内AU9999黄金收于975元/ 克（周环比-3.5%）。 美国袭击委内瑞拉，地缘紧张局势有望利好黄金。当地时间1月3日凌晨，美军对委内瑞拉发动大规模空 袭，逮捕该国总统马杜罗及其夫人，并寻求扶植亲美政权。美国此举的核心经济动机或在于控制委内瑞 拉丰厚的石油矿产资源，其拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量；而更深层次的地缘战略在于践行"特朗普 版门罗主义"，意图确立西半球绝对主导权，对其他拉美左翼国家形成威慑。全球百年未有之大变局 下，逆全球化与地缘冲突不断，地缘政治的不确定性有望促使更多避险资金涌向黄金。 上周黄金的回调主要源于白银波动加剧的外溢效应。白银在今年下半年尤其是近一个多月呈现飙涨态 势，不乏多头逼空等交易型因素，但近期芝商所提高保证金要求的消息加剧了波动性。12月12日，芝商 所首次将白银保证金上调10%。随后在12月29日收盘后，再次全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种 的履约保证金。12月26日，上海期货交易所将黄金、白银期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为15%，并相应 上调交易保证金比例。这些举措反映 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term optimistic, buy on dips; treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish [1][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper to hold long positions cautiously; aluminum to strengthen observation; nickel to observe or sell short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver for range trading; lithium carbonate for range - bound oscillations [1][11][13][15] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see; polyolefins to oscillate weakly [1][19][21][24] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, apples are expected to be slightly bullish; red dates to rebound from the bottom [1][27][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, short - term contracts to sell short on rallies, long - term contracts to be cautiously bullish; for eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; for corn, short - term to be cautious about chasing highs, grain holders to hedge on rallies; for soybean meal, short - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, long - term contracts to be treated weakly; for oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1][29][31][32] Core Views - The A - share market has a positive start in 2026, with high trading volume and broad - based gains. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027. The bond market is affected by low yields and high supply, and treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [5] - In the black building materials market, the coking coal market is in a game between bearish and bullish factors, and rebar is affected by supply and demand and policies [8] - The non - ferrous metals market is complex. Copper has long - term supply support but short - term over - priced risks; aluminum is affected by fundamentals and policies; nickel is expected to remain in surplus; tin is affected by supply and demand; precious metals are affected by the US economic situation [11][13][15] - The energy chemicals market is generally weak. PVC, caustic soda, and other products are affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [19][21] - In the cotton textile and agricultural livestock markets, products such as cotton, apples, and red dates are affected by supply, demand, and policies; live pigs, eggs, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality [27][29][31] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: On the first trading day, A - shares opened and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027, expecting annual growth of 15% - 20%. The market is expected to develop further, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market has quickly digested the positive news about fund fees and bank EVE indicators. Due to low bond yields and high supply, treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between bearish factors (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and bullish factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Rebar**: The futures price was weak on Monday. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: Supply - side factors such as production line cold repairs are positive, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and there are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a high level, but there are short - term over - priced risks. The supply is expected to be sufficient in January, and the price may fluctuate widely at a high level. Long positions should be held cautiously [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is in a weak situation, and the aluminum price is driven by expectations and funds. The upward pressure is large in January, and observation is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to decrease, but the overall nickel market is in surplus. The price may rebound in the short term, and investors can observe or sell short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and range trading is recommended [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic situation, the prices are expected to move sideways. Long positions in silver can be held, and range trading is recommended for gold [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [19] - **Caustic Soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the alumina market. Temporary observation is recommended [21] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the price is expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [21] - **Rubber**: The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [22] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and range trading is recommended [23] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and range trading is recommended [24] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the LP spread is expected to widen [25] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by downstream industries. Temporary observation is recommended [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by the global cotton supply - demand situation and policies, the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the price is oscillating due to supply - demand games. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is under pressure. Short - term contracts can be sold short on rallies, and long - term contracts can be cautiously bullish [29] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is at a low level. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies [31][32] - **Corn**: The short - term price increase is limited, and long - term demand is gradually released but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Short - term caution is needed when chasing highs, and long - term there is strong support at the bottom [34] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports and South American weather. Range trading is recommended, with short - term contracts treated strongly on dips and long - term contracts treated weakly [35][36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated. In the long term, there are potential positive factors [41][42]