1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and PX & PTA are still running in a relatively sluggish state. The polyester chain commodities are expected to continue to face pressure in the short term, with the prices in the PX - PTA segment likely to continue the downward trend and the risk of downstream negative feedback increasing [2][4]. - PX prices may continue to be under pressure due to the weakening of crude oil prices, the convergence of basis, and the expected compression of processing fees. PTA may maintain a weak and volatile pattern, with the decline of PX weakening cost support, and the weak downstream polyester demand and low processing fees limiting the downside space [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On July 11, the PX main contract closed at 6,694.0 yuan/ton, down 1.3% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 106.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,700.0 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 50.0 yuan/ton. The weakening of crude oil prices suppresses the cost side, and the convergence of basis implies weakened spot support. With the expected compression of PX processing fees, prices may continue to be weak. PTA may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [3]. Polyester - On July 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,508.0 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,660.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 152.0 yuan/ton. The continuous decline of PX and PTA futures prices reflects the loosening of cost support and the pressure of loose supply. The 15 - day moving average trading volume of Light Textile City has decreased, indicating weakened downstream procurement demand. The inventory days of polyester filament varieties and short - fibers are significantly higher than the five - year average, highlighting the inventory pressure in the entire industrial chain [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 1.30% to 6,694 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 17.19%, and the open interest increased by 1.95%. The spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged. The PX basis increased by 488.89% to 106 yuan/ton [5]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.89% to 4,700 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 22.82%, and the open interest decreased by 2.69%. The spot price in China's main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA basis increased by 525.00% to 50 yuan/ton. The PTA 5 - 9 spread decreased by 650.00%, and the PTA 9 - 1 spread increased by 216.67%. The PTA import profit increased by 0.33% [5]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.52% to 6,508 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 25.78%, and the open interest decreased by 14.93%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.45% to 6,660 yuan/ton. The PF basis increased by 2.70%. The PF 1 - 5 spread decreased by 84.62%, and the PF 5 - 9 spread increased [5]. - **Other prices**: The price of Brent crude oil's main contract remained unchanged at 68.88 dollars/barrel. The prices of CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol remained unchanged. The prices of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY all decreased [5]. - **Processing spreads**: The PX processing spread remained unchanged at 256.67 dollars/ton. The PTA processing spread increased by 1.62% to 141.03 yuan/ton. The processing spreads of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fibers, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY all decreased [6]. - **Light Textile City trading volume**: On July 10, the total trading volume was 438.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.98%, with 348.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 88.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [9]. - **Industrial chain load rates**: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [6]. - **Inventory days**: The inventory days of polyester short - fibers decreased by 0.63% to 7.94 days, while those of polyester POY, polyester FDY, and polyester DTY increased by 11.52%, 10.27%, and 2.80% respectively [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations Macro Dynamics - On July 11, several Fed officials made statements. Musalem said the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit may become a financial stability issue in the future. Daly considered implementing interest rate cuts in the fall and thought there would be two rate cuts this year. Waller reiterated the possible reasons for a rate cut in July. The Fed proposed to relax the supervision of large - scale banks. - On July 10, the Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on rate cuts. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates again. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel said the ECB should neither plan nor rule out further rate cuts [7]. Supply - Demand (Demand) - On July 10, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 438.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.98%, with 348.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 88.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [9]. 3.4 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - For PX, the main contract price decreased by 1.3%, closing at 6,694 yuan/ton with a basis of 106 yuan. The decline in crude oil prices may lead to a further decrease in PX prices. In the short term, PX may continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the trends of crude oil and PX processing fees. - For PTA, the main contract price decreased by 0.89%, with a basis of 50 yuan. The decline in PX prices weakens the cost support for PTA. If the terminal consumption demand does not improve significantly, the demand for PTA may be limited. PTA may continue to be weak under the dual pressure of cost decline and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking trends [36].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Harker, indicates that it is very close to a neutral interest rate level and sees no urgent need for rate cuts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is approaching a neutral interest rate, suggesting a stable economic outlook [1] - There is currently no pressing need for interest rate reductions, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1]

美联储哈玛克：我们已非常接近中性利率水平，目前尚无迫切降息的必要。 ...

美联储哈玛克：目前尚无迫切降息的必要。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing its longest losing streak against the US dollar in two years, leading options traders to adopt a bearish outlook on the currency [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The pound fell 0.3% to a three-week low of 1.3452 USD, marking its seventh consecutive day of decline, the longest since July 2023 [3]. - The decline is attributed to a stronger US dollar and concerns over slowing economic growth in the UK [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - UK economic data revealed a surprise contraction of 0.1% in May, highlighting downside risks to growth and reinforcing market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Bank of England [3]. - Current market pricing indicates an expectation of 58 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, up from 51 basis points the previous week [1]. Group 3: Central Bank Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in the next meeting is now estimated at 80%, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach until at least September [5]. - Upcoming key data releases, including inflation reports from both the UK and the US, as well as UK labor market data, are anticipated to influence market sentiment [5].

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has fallen to a three-month low against the euro due to increasing market concerns over potential interest rate cuts and tax hikes in the UK [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Market fears are growing that the Bank of England may accelerate interest rate cuts, particularly if the labor market weakens significantly [1] - Recent data showed weak economic growth in the UK for May, raising the likelihood of a rate cut in August [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Concerns - There is an increasing risk of tax increases in the autumn as the government seeks to address fiscal shortfalls [1] - The upcoming employment data release is deemed crucial in determining the trajectory of monetary policy [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the international gold price showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the international silver price broke through $39 per ounce, reaching a nearly 14 - year high. Trump postponed the tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, but sent tax - levy letters to multiple trading partners, and the overseas tariff disturbance still exists. His announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper in the US starting from August 1st drove up the price of US copper, and silver rose 4.7% last Friday due to its industrial attributes and the momentum of a catch - up rally, hitting a new high [2][3][6]. - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that only a few of the 19 policymakers supported a rate cut this month, and most officials were worried about the inflation pressure that Trump's trade tariffs might bring. There are increasing rumors that Powell may be forced to resign [3][6]. - The market has become desensitized to tariffs, and risk assets have not shown significant adjustments. However, the 50% tariff on imported copper has significantly affected the US copper price. It is expected that the catch - up rally of silver prices will continue [3][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 773.56 | - 3.50 | - 0.45 | 181932 | 178255 | Yuan/Gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 769.30 | 1.50 | 0.20 | 32652 | 211814 | Yuan/Gram | | COMEX Gold | 3370.30 | 34.30 | 1.03 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9040 | 121 | 1.36 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/Kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9028 | 168 | 1.90 | 632508 | 3287648 | Yuan/Kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 39.08 | 2.04 | 5.49 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The international gold price was volatile and slightly stronger last week, and the international silver price reached a nearly 14 - year high. Trump's tariff policies brought both buffer periods and disturbances. The Fed's policymakers were divided on rate cuts, and rumors about Powell's possible resignation are increasing [3][6]. - The market has become desensitized to tariffs, but the 50% tariff on imported copper affected the US copper price. Silver reached a new high due to its industrial attributes and catch - up momentum, and its catch - up rally is expected to continue. This week, focus on the US June CPI, retail data, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting, and the Fed's release of the Beige Book [9]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 227,000, the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in two months. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week was 1.965 million, still the highest since the end of 2021 [10]. - The Eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index was 4.5, the highest since February 2022. The Eurozone's May retail sales increased by 1.8% year - on - year [10]. - China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported at 73.9 million ounces (about 2298.55 tons), an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month, the eighth consecutive month of increase [10]. - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper in the US, effective August 1, 2025. The US imports nearly half of its copper, mostly from Chile [10]. - Fed Governor Waller said the Fed could consider a rate cut in July, and should adjust its asset holdings and reduce the bank reserve scale. Fed's Daly said the Fed may cut rates twice this year, and it's time to consider rate adjustments [11]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of precious metals prices, inventory, non - commercial net long positions, spreads, ratios, and their relationships with other economic indicators such as inflation expectations, the US dollar index, and bond yields [16][17][18].

英国央行行长贝利暗示，如果就业市场恶化速度超过央行预期，可能实施更大幅度的降息。 ...

英国央行行长贝利：如果就业市场放缓，英国央行可能降息 金十数据7月14日讯，据英国《泰晤士报》，英国央行行长表示，如果就业市场出现明显放缓的迹象， 英国央行准备进行更大幅度的降息。贝利称，有"一致"的证据表明，在财政大臣里夫斯提高雇主国民保 险缴款后，企业"调整了就业"。他说，英国的经济增长落后于其潜力，形成有助于降低通胀的"闲置空 间"。贝利强调4月薪资税上调大幅影响企业裁员，迫使企业削减薪酬涨幅应对成本压力。他表示企业 正"通过调整雇佣规模、工时以及实施低于未增税情形的涨薪幅度来应对"。贝利承认，在6月降息之 后，一些人呼吁更快地降息。他说："我确实相信利率路径是向下的，但我们继续使用'渐进和谨慎'的 用词，因为有些人对我说，'当通胀高于目标时，你为什么要降息？'" ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观提振供需改善，胶价或将震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13900-14185 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡上行，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 7 月 11 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14360 元/吨，当周上涨 355 点，涨幅 2.53%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡上行，总体小幅 上涨。 研究报告 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 14 日星期一 展望后市，从宏观面来看，关税风云再起，影响全球市场； 我国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨，6 月 PPI 环比下降。从基本面来看，供 给方面，近期主产区受天气扰动原料供应短缺支撑胶价，但是 后期存在较强的供应上量预期。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工 率均有回升 ...